This is a question nobody can answer without know the actual split. Hence why this little debate is even being had right now.
Please stop with this *potentially* argument. I understand this but as this is the only report from South Korea to gauge system performance, I'd like to use this instead of my imagination. And this same retailer hosted a PS4 launch and had at least twice the sales. This give more credit to the 2:1 ratio. We would like to know what concrete information do you have to support you claim that these 29 markets sold 1.3M (sold through) in ~4 months? What are the size of these gaming markets compared to other ones. Like others have said you might be overestimating Tier 2 countries output.
(Germany could have sold 50k in December 2014, but there is a good chance it didn't)
My apologies 2.4M (including the launch of 29 markets that's your analysis based on) and the launch of Destiny.
So you're saying there is only one video game store in South Korea?
When I use the word potentially, I mean you're looking at one store's worth of sales, but dismissing every other "potential" channel such as Internet sales or other video game stores. There is not enough data to draw any conclusion from South Korea. Yes the PS4 will outsell it there, that is obvious as PlayStation has always done better than Xbox in SK. But we can't say South Korea ONLY sold 200 consoles and that's it.
But what the hell does PlayStation have to do with Xbox sales. Nothing.... To work out a ratio in one country, yes we can do that. But when we don't have proper data for the 28 tier 2 countries then we can't draw any conclusion about X1 sales.
I have never claimed 1.3 million sold through in tier 2. Again you're putting words in my mouth. Go and read the original post. I quite clearly said I don't want to put a number on tier 2 sales. But even then we can see more than 10m+ is a given.
If you can't even answer my question on how many X1's/360's you think have shipped in CY2014 then you can't make any prediction about sell through at all.
The Xbox 360 sold 7 million units in CY2013.
Xbox 360 sold 0.8m in Q1 CY2014.
Combined for Q2/Q3/Q4 sales was 10.1m
X360 sales would have fallen this year again, as confirmed by Microsoft. (going by past trends we can say the drop was somewhere around ~40%
X1 was at 10m sold in as of December.
You do the math.
Like I said, I look at so much historical data, trends and numbers before even posting anything in regards to a "prediction". At the moment you're just guessing based on the fact the PS4 is doing better, so that means the X1 will do much worse. Not exactly a great argument.