Graphics Horse
Member
I think most of the sales are in Europe.
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Microsoft Q1: 2.4 M 360+XBO shipped
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
I think most of the sales are in Europe.
ethomaz
Banned
If these are the real numbers then I was really really close.... 7.5m.
The 360 numbers are really close to 800-900k.
Edit - Failed article.
"Add all those numbers together, and you get an absolute ceiling of 8.5 million potential Xbox One shipments through September."
He got all the 360 shipment and counted to Xbone.
Dumb lol
rokkerkory
Member
Interesting... maybe 9m shipped by end of year then?
I dunno if it'll match last year's sell through of 1.8m for Q4!
1.8m was NPD, they should easily match that in the US.
9m shipped is like 1.5m shipped over the holiday season, they did more than that this Q.
I know he's only trying to estimate a floor of the PS4 numbers, but the PS4 estimation makes absolutely no sense from a WW perspective.
Did he just completely ignore that the PS4 almost sold in September in the US alone the amount that he contributes to the WW PS4 sales from August 12 throughout September?
Their PS4 numbers are way off. They estimate 560,000 WW sold PS4s from August 12 to the end of September, but we know the PS4 sold that many consoles in September in the US alone...
X1 numbers are probably also wrong, only in the other direction.
Edit: damn you bombshell
Wii U's ~4.5m between just the US and Japan. Worldwide it's going to be over 6m.
rokkerkory
Member
1.8m was just NPD? Well then they should do better then! :razz:
Computing and Game Hardware breakdown:
Revenue: 2.45
- Xbox platform: 1.47 (+0.54)
- Surface: 0.9 (+0.51)
Cost of revenue: 1.97
- Xbox platform: 1.07 (+0.62)
- Surface: 0.84 (+0.16)
Gross margin: 0.48
- Xbox platform: 0.39 (-0.9)
- Surface: 0.07 (+0.35)
$ in billions.
- Xbox platform = Xbox hardware + second and third party software + Xbox Live subscription.
- Gross margin =/= profit.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S2/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx
Devices & Consumer Other
The rest of Xbox (first party games + Xbox Live transactions) is here, along with other junk.
- First-party video games revenue increased $79 million, due mainly to the launch of Forza Horizon 2 and the re-release of certain Xbox 360 titles.
- Cost of revenue also increased $57 million, due to higher first-party video games costs.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S3/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx
Revenue: 2.45
- Xbox platform: 1.47 (+0.54)
- Surface: 0.9 (+0.51)
Cost of revenue: 1.97
- Xbox platform: 1.07 (+0.62)
- Surface: 0.84 (+0.16)
Gross margin: 0.48
- Xbox platform: 0.39 (-0.9)
- Surface: 0.07 (+0.35)
$ in billions.
- Xbox platform = Xbox hardware + second and third party software + Xbox Live subscription.
- Gross margin =/= profit.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S2/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx
Devices & Consumer Other
The rest of Xbox (first party games + Xbox Live transactions) is here, along with other junk.
- First-party video games revenue increased $79 million, due mainly to the launch of Forza Horizon 2 and the re-release of certain Xbox 360 titles.
- Cost of revenue also increased $57 million, due to higher first-party video games costs.
http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S3/FY15/Q1/Performance.aspx
Welfare
Member
PS4 may be too high.
Xbox looks accurate.
Wii U is most likely about to break 7 million this month.
It's a frequent sight here in England. Today, every person in the booth of four on my train had Lumias.
4.95m of the 6.68m shipped is to Americas and Japan, only 1.73m shipped to "others" Europe and ROTW.
Japan and US sell through is 4.3m~ end of June, so 650k in the channel (minus what they sold in the rest of Americas, isn't that about 10% of the US? I read that somewhere once.
So I assume "others" had sold through about 1.6m of that stock.
5.9m~ end of June for WiiU + what they have sold the last 3 months WW.
230k in US and about 160k in Japan, "Others is surely below that"
So I don't think WiiU is at 7m yet. More like 6.5m~
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
Their PS4 numbers are way off. They estimate 560,000 WW sold PS4s from August 12 to the end of September, but we know the PS4 sold that many consoles in September in the US alone...
X1 numbers are probably also wrong, only in the other direction.
Edit: damn you bombshell
He did say floor as in absolute lower bound so yes the gap is almost definitely larger
i used to work along these lines. in the end it's rather pointless. manufacturers will eventually sell what they ship, and returns won't be in anything more than the tens of thousands, essentially meaningless in the long run (i think this happened with the famicom in 2003 or 2004 as production was winding down). going by shipment number is a fairly accurate way to go about things as they also indicate demand.
what actually sucks is the coupling of hardware. this psp + psv, ps3 + ps4, and 360 + xb1 garbage has got to go.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes I meant FY13Q3 as the quarter of over-shipment. That was a mistake I made when tired.
My comment was meant to read that MS may have over-shipped FY13Q3 [CYQ1] and thus in the following two quarters of FY13Q4 [CYQ2] and FY14Q1 [CYQ3] YOY drops for said quarters would be notably larger than previous quarters to compensate. I did not mean to imply that MS would over-ship in FY13Q4 [CYQ2] as well.
Read the very next sentence. Even better, the entire article.
Welfare
Member
Would retailers take in that much stock for the Wii U without it getting sold? I would assume that the Wii U sold-through is actually close to it's sold in numbers.
The US numbers alone for August+September puts the PS4 above that floor estimation, so it's pretty useless and just comes off as trying to downplay the sales gap.
ethomaz
Banned
I did and my opinion continue the same about the article.. pretty dumb.
I can start with the best XB1 case being false because we know 360 reached 84m that means it shipped at least 300k... to the point that the PS4 worst case is already killed with US + Japan numbers.
Dumb.
It's not dumb, (because it's plausible) it's just very bias and one sided. Obviously sales are not at 7.4m or even close.
SwiftDeath
Member
So I tend to think Parmenides of all posters is unlikely to make a mistake about previous quarters shipments thus I think Ars Technica made a small typo
That would be FY12Q4 + FY13Q1
So someone is off by 100k. Not that it's a large error but it is incorrect
As per Ars's actual estimates, they are for sold through best I can tell and I'm not quite sure I see XB1 WW sell-through being above 7.25M as too likely, I suppose they are using it as the ceiling for sold-through though
PS4 numbers are simply illogical even as a floor. Venturebeat's article on September NPD sales even qualify that PS4 should be over 500k and that's US only. So Ars's approach to estimate that one is simply leaving notable data on the table as it were
Oh also PS4 hit 10M sold through WW on August 10th, it may have been announced August 12th but that was not when it hit it. Thus by Ars's own estimation method they are off by 25k
Can someone explain something to me?
Throughout the history of video games, we have seen company after company become the leader of the industry with clear market and mindshare ownership. And every single time we see whatever company is in the lead do the exact same thing that the company they took the lead from did; "we are gaming personified, everyone will fall lock step in with us and we will rule forever".
Atari, Nintendo, Sony, Nintendo again, Microsoft, they all do it. Over and over. Some of the marketshare leads have been mind blowingly HUGE and still it gets pissed away by hubris.
It's 2014. Why is this still happening?
Throughout the history of video games, we have seen company after company become the leader of the industry with clear market and mindshare ownership. And every single time we see whatever company is in the lead do the exact same thing that the company they took the lead from did; "we are gaming personified, everyone will fall lock step in with us and we will rule forever".
Atari, Nintendo, Sony, Nintendo again, Microsoft, they all do it. Over and over. Some of the marketshare leads have been mind blowingly HUGE and still it gets pissed away by hubris.
It's 2014. Why is this still happening?
MS has never lead in the console space.
Your post ended with dismissing the entire article based them lumping the two to get a theoretical maximum XBO shipment figure, when that was refined immediately after.
To your point, I do wish the writers at Ars would familiarize themselves with the scope of data that is available before tackling this topic. He basically only uses PR and earnings release data for the deductions, where there is much more available.
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
But all we have been told all this time by people is that these countries are not significant to MS and that the countries won't supply them with much sales... so which is it?
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
So if the PS4 is only around 10 mil and the XB1 is nearing 8 mil*, what's with all the doom and gloom around these parts? That's almost neck and neck as far as I'm concerned.
*Source: Ars Technica
*Source: Ars Technica
tfur
Member
It's shipments.
But the Microsoft reported 2.4 million are shipped (sold-in), not sold-through. Microsoft did not provide any sold-through numbers in their report.
We know of 4.6 million combined sold-through in ROTW 2013 + US LTD up to September 2014. So everything beyond that must be sold in 2014 YTD ROTW and in the US since beginning of October, or am I missing something?
2+ million non-US sales sounds pretty high to me.
In 2013, Xbox sold 1.8 million in the US and 1.2 million ROTW.
In 2014, Xbox sold 1.6 million so far in the US (until the end of September), and we have reports from Europe that 2014 YTD sales are only between 50-70% of the 2013 sales.
Even in the UK which is probably the best non-US market for the XB1, of the ~666K LTD until early September most of it was sold in 2013 (364K).
So yes, I don't think that US:ROTW ratio improved to allow for 1.0-1.1 million sold-through 2014 YTD outside the US. I rather think it moved in the other direction.
theprodigy
Member
yeah, I kinda realized this after Nintendo's habitual holiday overshipments and the subsequent "shipments are less than sales" stuff that resulted in the quarter(s) immediately following it
@chithanh: what reports, they have generally suggested rough parity against the US so far
Brad Grenz
Member
Those figures are just laughably wrong. A reasonable estimate puts the Xbox One at or under 6M sold and the PS4 above 12M sold.
I mentioned them in an earlier post, and I my argument was that 2014 YTD is below 2013 for the XB1 at least in Europe:
One uncertainty here: The numbers from Germany are 3 months old, so XB1 could be around 100K now.
theprodigy
Member
No shit, I mean their ratio vs the US has generally been maintained from 2013 (UK and Germany even look slightly up, if anything).
Spain not so much, but it's one of the smallest tier 1 countries, so...
SwiftDeath
Member
Sure it is but relative to the US? XB1 sales in Europe generally appear to be less front-loaded but it's not an obvious pattern
-------
Germany XB1 sales
2013 YTD = 100,000
2014 YTD = 70,000 [through June 2014]
German XB1 2014 YTD through June = 70% of German XB1 2013 YTD
US XB1 2014 YTD through June = 60.5% of US XB1 2013 YTD
Thus German sales of XB1 are less front-loaded than US sales [doesn't make them good btw]
-------
Spain XB1 sales
2013 YTD = 35,000
2014 YTD = 16,000 [through September 2014]
Spanish XB1 2014 YTD through September = 45.7% of Spanish XB1 2013 YTD
US XB1 2014 YTD through September = 92% of US XB1 2013 YTD
Thus relative to the US, Spanish sales of XB1 were significantly more front-loaded then US sales.
---------
UK XB1 sales
2013 YTD = 364,000
2014 YTD = 302,000 [through September 9th]
UK XB1 2014 YTD through mid-September = 83% of British XB1 2013 YTD
US XB1 2014 YTD through mid-September = 76.5% - 92% of US XB1 2013 YTD
So UK sales of XB1 have followed relatively closely with US sales of it which makes sense as the market is likely the closest to the US
-------
tl;dr it's hard to try and show objectively that European sales of the XB1 are more front-loaded than the US because they were never particularly high in the first place
I sincerely doubt it's anywhere near 6M. It's at 3.5M sold through in the US. There's no way it sold 2.5 in the rest of the world.
KillerMan91
Member
It's launch quarter for those countries. Even for Xbox One there was obviously some demand and then like with every launch in any country MS of course also shipped more than enough consoles aka channel stuffing. Even WiiU had decent launch quarter around the world. It's just that sales in those countries tanked completely next quarter as the launch demand was gone and probably same happens to Xbox one as most of those extra countries are already dominated by PS4 (excluding China).
Yes there is. you really think there are millions of units floating around outside of the US?
2013 sales also back up that US is 60% of the market for Xbox, and that's without all the new countries (however small, they add up).
MS wouldn't have shipped so many units if the console wasn't even past 6m by now.
Welfare
Member
The market % could actually be anywhere from 60-65% for the US back in 2013. If those ratios stayed the same till October 4th then sales are anywhere between 5.6-5.8 million.
Now if the ratio for the US dropped due to Tier 2 countries, and sales just picking up in general in the ROTW, then the ratio could be 55-59:45-41 (US:ROTW). Sales would then be 5.8-6.0 million. I find this more unlikely than the first set of ranges.
We also have no idea if these shipments include Xbox's that are just to stuff the channel until the holidays roll around or not.
We don't really have numbers but if you look at the PAL charts every week its not something i would call impossible.
I think Europe (especially tier 2) got massively overshipped because most retailers had imported from Germany and the UK, i'm not sure if its 1m but it definately doesn't sound impossible.
StealthGoblin
Banned
It is entirely possible that Sony is selling through more in a month in Europe than Microsoft is shipping in 2-3 months.
1st Course
Member
Microsoft Sales Tops Estimates as Nadella Revamp Advances
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-beat-estimates-on-recovering-pc-market.html
Office 365 is a huge huge success.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-beat-estimates-on-recovering-pc-market.html
Office 365 is a huge huge success.
airmangataosenai
Member
In Sales-Age fanfiction only.