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Microsoft Q1: 2.4 M 360+XBO shipped

S

SwiftDeath

Member
airmangataosenai said:
For starters, the number assumes that in the second calendar year quarter, the person making the estimate assumes that the 360 outshipped the XBO for..... reasons?
Click to expand...

Based on the recorded YOY drops for previous quarters of 360 WW shipments maybe? I mean what are you using exactly to claim the XB1 shipped more in FY13/14_Q4? [Using calendar quarters in a quarterly report thread with a company with an offset FY is unhelpful I find]

And besides that's patently false

For say a 7.3M WW shipped estimate

5.1M shipped in FY13Q2+Q3, 650k shipped in FY13Q4, 1.55M shipped in FY14Q1 = 7.3M shipped WW

And that has XB1 selling more in FY13Q4

airmangataosenai said:
The second thing is that they are probably overestimating how the 360 performed this quarter as well, especially given how poorly the system sold the past three months in America, given that the USA accounts for roughly half of all of the system's sales to date.
Click to expand...

US sales of the 360 don't show to be great measures for WW shipments absolutely as shown here

SwiftDeath said:
Code: 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YOY changes for 360 Shipments And US sales
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarter    |   FY13/14_Q1   |   FY13/14_Q2  |   FY13/14_Q3  |   FY13/14_Q4  | FY14/15_Q1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WW360Ship  |     -29.5%     |     -40.5%    |     -38.5%    |      ???      |     ???    |
NPDUSSales |     -42.6%     |     -50.3%    |     -67.6%    |     -50.5%    |    -53.5%  |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Click to expand...

For the XB1 to have shipped even 7.5M WW [which by the way I concede is a possibility], the 360 would have had to average a 55% drop YOY for the last two quarters in the table above. Any estimate that places XB1 shipments over 7.5M WW would naturally require 360 shipments drops for those two quarters to average higher than 55%. For instance, XB1 shipping 7.7M WW cumulatively would require the average drop for those two quarters to be 64% which the drops for the preceding three quarters do not at all suggest is likely
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
US sales of the 360 don't show to be great measures for WW shipments absolutely as shown here
Click to expand...

You can channel stuff a platform only to a certain extent, they overshipped in CYQ1 with 800k 360's. Plus, the XBO in June outsold the entire quarter for the 360. To completely discount both the sales figures and the overshipment in Jan-Mar and just point to the percentages from previous quarters is fully useless. Shipments can fluctuate wildly and you can't pump units into retail endlessly if there's no demand for it. Sony products can sell under the radar but company's like Microsoft and Nintendo don't have as much sales presence in those markets that we have little information on so they can't hide where their sales are coming from the same way.

And besides that's patently false

For say a 7.3M WW shipped estimate

5.1M shipped in FY13Q2+Q3, 650k shipped in FY13Q4, 1.55M shipped in FY14Q1 = 7.3M shipped WW

And that has XB1 selling more in FY13Q4
Click to expand...

Your numbers for Q4 are closer to what I think they probably sold, but your Q1 , there's no way to make the numbers add up. You're estimating 360 shipments at 850k for a quarter they only managed to sell 200k to consumers in the US (Not even close actually)? The system has never ever even once had a multiplier that impressive.

The highest I could see for the 360 is maybe 600k, but even that would be pushing it.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
airmangataosenai said:
You can channel stuff a platform only to a certain extent, they overshipped in CYQ1 with 800k 360's. Plus, the XBO in June outsold the entire quarter for the 360. To completely discount both the sales figures and the overshipment in Jan-Mar and just point to the percentages from previous quarters is fully useless. Shipments can fluctuate wildly and you can't pump units into retail endlessly if there's no demand for it. Sony products can sell under the radar but company's like Microsoft and Nintendo don't have as much sales presence in those markets that we have little information on so they can't hide where their sales are coming from the same way.
Click to expand...

Right and I already qualified that a larger than previous YOY drop for shipments during FY13Q4 and FY14Q1 is likely hence why I accept an average drop of 55% across both as being a logical possibility. I did not discount the potential over-shipment in FY13Q4 as I accepted the YOY drops for the next two quarters were notably higher as I already dictated.
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Right and I already qualified that a larger than previous YOY drop for shipments during FY13Q4 and FY14Q1 is likely hence why I accept an average drop of 55% across both as being a logical possibility. I did not discount the potential over-shipment in FY13Q4 as I accepted the YOY drops for the next two quarters were notably higher as I already dictated.
Click to expand...

CYQ1=FYQ3 for Microsoft, I was saying they overshipped in Jan-Mar, which makes an additional overshipment far outpacing the likely rate of sales to consumers in their fourth quarter for their fiscal year unlikely.
 
K

Kysen

Member
I'm guessing here but 50k average shipped to each of those 28 new markets should make up the bulk of this quarters shipments. Around 1.4 million, the rest being 360+X1 top ups to existing inventory.
 
O

One4U

Banned
The sales of PS4 is at the another level, Xbox One cannot catch it. This is the fact and better to accept it.

As a Xbox fan, I am glad the installbase of Xbox One is keeping growing and there are many great games ahead to enjoy.

Edit:

Also glad Lumia sales hit new record.
 
C

chithanh

Banned
About the sell-through numbers, we know that WW PS4 was at 10 million in mid-August, up from 7 million in mid-April. That's 3 million in 4 months.

In the US, the Destiny launch caused PS4 sales to more than double compared to the previous month. If we assume that worldwide sales at least doubled too, then we are at 12.25+ million in mid-October. Maybe more if Destiny had any effect on PS4 sales outside its launch month.

XB1 sell-through is a bit harder to estimate but I think they are not close to 6 million.
Code: 
             | US   | ROTW | WW
-------------+------+------+--------
2013 Nov+Dec | 1.8  | 1.2  | 3.0
2014 Jan-Sep | 1.6  | ???  | 4.6+???

If you assume that 6 million XB1 sold-through WW LTD, that would mean 1.4 million ROTW in 2014. Which seems implausibly high given that XB1 sales in continental Europe have mostly stalled in 2014:
SwiftDeath said:
Remember that

PS4 2013 German YTD = 250,000
XB1 2013 German YTD = 100,000

Thus

PS4 2014 German YTD = 290,000
XB1 2014 German YTD = 70,000
Click to expand...

Mpl90 said:
Spain up to 2013

PS4 - 157,000
One - 35,000

Spain in 2014

PS4 - 203,000
One - 16,000
Click to expand...
I'd rather put ROTW sell-through at 0.8 million YTD which gives us 5.4 million WW LTD by the end of September.

Galvanise_ said:
They shipped more than 100k to China alone.
Click to expand...
100k in China was the biggest tier 2 launch I think. In contrast, India reportedly received a [post=132154070]launch shipment of only 4k consoles[/post]. I expect that most other tier 2 countries were closer to India than to China.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
SwiftDeath said:
For the XB1 to have shipped even 7.5M WW [which by the way I concede is a possibility], the 360 would have had to average a 55% drop YOY for the last two quarters in the table above. Any estimate that places XB1 shipments over 7.5M WW would naturally require 360 shipments drops for those two quarters to average higher than 55%. For instance, XB1 shipping 7.7M WW cumulatively would require the average drop for those two quarters to be 64% which the drops for the preceding three quarters do not at all suggest is likely
Click to expand...

Have you taken into account the 360 hitting 84 million LTD?

Edit: Nevermind, I made a mistake adding up the XB1 sales which put it too low. 360 should according to my very crude estimates take up at least 0.3m of last two quarter's Xbox shipments.
 
A

AmaterasuOni

Banned
RPGamer92 said:
Has there been any updates from "tier 2" countries?
Click to expand...

Nope. But it has "not sold at all". It was like everyone said: DOA, because every Tier 2 country have had their import Xbones since the official launch in 2013 (and these countries are "sonylands" as some people say). So my questimate is 2095,5 consoles sold after the actual launch.

Lynn616 said:
Really great quarter for MS. Even sold 9.3 Million Lumias. Not bad.
Click to expand...

And this is interesting. I'm really suprised that the old Nokia has some momentum.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
giadartis said:
In my opinion I think close to 6.5-7 been sold with 8-9 being shipped. Then again SO preorders and COD preorders may not have done as well as I may think they may do. Time will tell.
Click to expand...

You mean as of September 30th? Then, no 9 million have not been shipped, as has already been discussed it it between 7.2 and about 7.5 million. If you mean to the present, no, Microsoft did not ship another 1.5 million in the last three weeks. If you mean by the end of this current quarter, then no, they will ship more than 9 million if stores will take them.
 
G

giadartis

Banned
Trust me said:
You mean as of September 30th? Then, no 9 million have not been shipped, as has already been discussed it it between 7.2 and about 7.5 million. If you mean to the present, no, Microsoft did not ship another 1.5 million in the last three weeks. If you mean by the end of this current quarter, then no, they will ship more than 9 million if stores will take them.
Click to expand...

Ok. I was kind of projecting for shipped through the end of Oct. Sorry.

Is the amount of 360s sold still have a decent amount of the sales/shipped pie? And I know this sounds like a stupid question, but do preorders of bundles that have not been delivered to the consumers yet get factored into these numbers?
 
H

harSon

Banned
One4U said:
The sales of PS4 is at the another level, Xbox One cannot catch it. This is the fact and better to accept it.

As a Xbox fan, I am glad the installbase of Xbox One is keeping growing and there are many great games ahead to enjoy.

Edit:

Also glad Lumia sales hit new record.
Click to expand...

I hope Microsoft continues to have their asses handed to them for some time. Microsoft (and pretty much every multi billion dollar corporation) becomes complacent when they're sitting pretty in a market. They're on a great trajectory, which is a byproduct of them getting a rude awakening. Hopefully it continues.
 
C

chithanh

Banned
mike4001_ said:
So where are we at Xbox One sold through at the moment ?

Has anyone calculated a rough number ?
Click to expand...
I did above, and I estimated about 5.4 million:
chithanh said:
I'd rather put ROTW sell-through at 0.8 million YTD which gives us 5.4 million WW LTD by the end of September.
Click to expand...

giadartis said:
In my opinion I think close to 6.5-7 been sold with 8-9 being shipped. Then again SO preorders and COD preorders may not have done as well as I may think they may do. Time will tell.
Click to expand...
I would like to know how you arrived at your estimate that XB1 reached 6.5-7 million sold-through.
 
G

giadartis

Banned
chithanh said:
I did above, and I estimated about 5.4 million:



I would like to know how you arrived at your estimate that XB1 reached 6.5-7 million sold-through.
Click to expand...

I just think a lot less Xbox 360 moved.. Aka more XBO's sold than the estimated 1.7mil. Its my optimistic opinion.
 
A

Ape

Banned
boredandlazy said:
About your member status? Obviously not you.
Click to expand...

shaq-laughing-gif.gif
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
chithanh said:
About the sell-through numbers, we know that WW PS4 was at 10 million in mid-August, up from 7 million in mid-April. That's 3 million in 4 months.

In the US, the Destiny launch caused PS4 sales to more than double compared to the previous month. If we assume that worldwide sales at least doubled too, then we are at 12.25+ million in mid-October. Maybe more if Destiny had any effect on PS4 sales outside its launch month.

XB1 sell-through is a bit harder to estimate but I think they are not close to 6 million.
Code: 
             | US   | ROTW | WW
-------------+------+------+--------
2013 Nov+Dec | 1.8  | 1.2  | 3.0
2014 Jan-Sep | 1.6  | ???  | 4.6+???

If you assume that 6 million XB1 sold-through WW LTD, that would mean 1.4 million ROTW in 2014. Which seems implausibly high given that XB1 sales in continental Europe have mostly stalled in 2014:



I'd rather put ROTW sell-through at 0.8 million YTD which gives us 5.4 million WW LTD by the end of September.
Click to expand...
So you think that for 2014, ROTW sales fell farther behind the US, even with what September had? I would say ROTW is 1.0-1.1 million at the end of September, bringing total LTD to 5.6-5.7 million units.
 
J

jelly

Member
Getting an accurate read on how well the new generation of consoles is selling is a difficult job, and it's complicated by sporadic and sometimes vague numbers provided by the console makers themselves. After taking a dive into the most recent numbers, Ars estimates that the PlayStation 4 has sold at least 42 percent more units worldwide than the Xbox One through September. This makes Sony's system responsible for at least 59 percent of hardware sales in the two-console market (PS4 and Xbox One).
Click to expand...

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/10/analysis-worldwide-ps4-sales-at-least-40-percent-better-than-xbox-one/

Interesting read about the numbers you might enjoy.
 
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