unknownstranger
Member
OT but we should get numbers from Sony and Nintendo at the end of the month right?
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Microsoft Q1: 2.4 M 360+XBO shipped
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
Sony should be giving us numbers on friday if i remember correct, no idea about Nintendo.
None of the other countries will rarely be as large as the reported 100k (and subsequent reports seem to indicate post the launch spike average sales are much less in China on-going).
The sensible estimates for shipments make sense; not least because other reports confirm Sony sales ratio advantage so we know top down XB1 likely hasn't closed the gap in any significant way vs PS4 shipments.
Nintendo is Wednesday.
dr. apocalipsis
Banned
Interesting to know that Surface is making as many money as Xbox One, and actually making a profit from it.
Bearing in mind that Surface is one of the most expensive Win tablets out there, this helps figuring how PC sales are shrinking consoles market.
I wonder how will they try to justify this generation in 3 years from now.
Bearing in mind that Surface is one of the most expensive Win tablets out there, this helps figuring how PC sales are shrinking consoles market.
I wonder how will they try to justify this generation in 3 years from now.
Neuromancer
Member
Office 365 is an amazing game.
That's because the new surface is worth the price. The thing is phenomenal.
theprodigy
Member
the little evidence we have suggests it has not fallen any harder than it has in the US, so I don't know why this idea still persists
edit: regarding the sell-through discussion, I think it's obvious there's extra stock due to tier 2 launches
3rdamention
Member
* Numbers represent the ceiling for Xbox One estimate and Floor for PS4 Estimate.
So basically they are taking the lowest possible estimate for the PS4 and comparing it to the highest possible estimate for Xbox One. Seriously? Why skew the data that way? Shouldn't they be comparing on equal terms? Such as the floor for both, or the ceiling for both? The method they are using is the one method that would produce the smallest difference. Interesting.
nelsonroyale
Member
Rant Mode: It blows my mind how MS is still so valuable as an enterprise. Their core products, Windows and Office, have got more and more crap over the years, but they have such a monopoly in the PC space they can keep printing money. I can't believe I use word as my professional software...It is pretty...casual...in a lowest common denominator way...
They actually did good with the Xbox 360. Their intro of the xbone was in keeping with much of their modern ethos, except they didn't have the defacto monopoly.
PS dominating a gen again has left folks shook for some reason.
I've seen too much logic fly out the window regarding these new consoles.
Its only because they wanna say "X sells AT LEAST that amount more than Y".
Its just being safe in their claims.
That ars article is just wrong.
First, they are comparing Xbox SHIPMENTS to PlayStation SELL THROUGH.
These are two completely different things.
Second they haven't taken into account the NPD figures for September regarding the PS4.
Thirdly they are flipping comparing SHIPMENTS to SELL THROUGH!
That article needs to be re-written, either where they estimate X1 sell through better or they estimate PS4 shipments to go along with the 7.75m xbox number. The PS4 is easily over 10.6m as ars estimate when it comes to sell through. Probably even as high as 12 million + sell through as of Sep 30th 2014.
First, they are comparing Xbox SHIPMENTS to PlayStation SELL THROUGH.
These are two completely different things.
Second they haven't taken into account the NPD figures for September regarding the PS4.
Thirdly they are flipping comparing SHIPMENTS to SELL THROUGH!
That article needs to be re-written, either where they estimate X1 sell through better or they estimate PS4 shipments to go along with the 7.75m xbox number. The PS4 is easily over 10.6m as ars estimate when it comes to sell through. Probably even as high as 12 million + sell through as of Sep 30th 2014.
Not possible to know for sure who is ahead in this race, but Xbox One sales are way better launch aligned.
True, but isn't Wii U pushing almost 8 mil units sold through?
Is Sales-Age fanfiction stationed in Japan, France or Germany then?
velvet_nitemare
Member
Heh they haven't even shipped that much yet. Unless the shipped 3 times what they did the quarter MK8 shipped
Btw, I just want to post these here.
They are predictions I made back in January 2014 when we got numbers for Q4 2013. Posted on a couple of forums so I can post the original link if anyone wants me to.
I tried to estimate what we would see in terms of shipments by the end of the year. I think I've been pretty close so far. Like I said on my previous post on this thread though, I'd estimate ~7.35m for X1 shipped and ~12m PS4 shipped. But not bad for an estimate I made back in January.
They are predictions I made back in January 2014 when we got numbers for Q4 2013. Posted on a couple of forums so I can post the original link if anyone wants me to.
I tried to estimate what we would see in terms of shipments by the end of the year. I think I've been pretty close so far. Like I said on my previous post on this thread though, I'd estimate ~7.35m for X1 shipped and ~12m PS4 shipped. But not bad for an estimate I made back in January.
Has it even passed 7?
No they don´t
The article says they subtracted an estimated number of xbox consoles on retailer shelves.
velvet_nitemare
Member
They SHOULD both have shipped over 7 million by Sept 30. Close race.
There are three paragraphs in the article explaining how they try to normalize shipments to sell through. I think their assumptions are poor, but it's not like they're taking the numbers at face value and running with them.
velvet_nitemare
Member
Indeed it did. Once Nintendo release their shipment numbers tho, they should be very very close to the X1 shipments estimated in this thread.
The mistakes of various console makers are vastly different. Atari's fall of dominance was because the North American market crashed in part because there needed to be someone willing to ensure games had quality control, which is what Nintendo did. However, Nintendo was too controlling in regards to what third-parties wanted, which is where Sony came in to steal Nintendo's market. However, Sony's mistake was making a console that was literally twice as expensive as their competitors which allowed Microsoft to gain marketshare and Nintendo to dominate. Conversely, Nintendo and Microsoft depended too much on the casual market when the casual market had left to mobile and PC, which allowed Sony who had never been successful with motion controls to retake the market that they lost. It didn't help that Nintendo can't get any notable third-party support and Microsoft wanted to force online DRM and put restrictions on the used game market.
Interesting?
I'm not quite sure how the hell they get that 10.56M through september figure for the PS4, given that we know that it sold through 10M WW in early august, and then another ~700k in the US and ~90k in Japan. That's already way past their number, and not counting more than half of the WW market.
LowEndTorque
Member
And that is exactly the problem with the article. Why rely on total speculation based on a completely made-up formula that only looks at shipments and PR when there is plenty of hard data on actual sell through available? In my view, that is enough to dismiss the article (and its ridiculously inaccurate estimates) out of hand.
~12M PS4 and ~6M XB1 are the best WW sell-through estimate based on NPD data, respective performances of each console in Europe and WW and the announcements of sold-through numbers from Sony.
Man, don't read too much into concrete data
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
So around 7.5 shipped and 6.5 sold to consumers.
Damn, to think that same time last gen, Sony was looking like it was going to go the way of the Sega.
Microsoft missed itself a great opportunity to develop the XB1 with a better architecture, launch a year later, and make the PS4 look like this gen's Dreamcast.
It would've been so super ironic.
Microsoft missed itself a great opportunity to develop the XB1 with a better architecture, launch a year later, and make the PS4 look like this gen's Dreamcast.
It would've been so super ironic.
Unknown One
Member
Europe won't let the PS4 become the Dreamcast. They'll just be losing even further.
Chobel
Member
No way; Last gen went on for too long -- many people would have just been fine with the PS4.
The XB1 would have an even bigger hill to climb up. The Playstation brand is far more popular.
With all the cross gen games abounding, including Titanfall and Destiny, Microsoft could've used hype alone to convince people to wait another year. EA must have been too trigger happy with those DRM policies though. Now that's ironic, EA inadvertently setting up Microsoft's next console to be the next Dreamcast.
Zekra Dezivad
Member
I found some errors:
In FY 2008/2009 total should be 11.1 (2.2 +6.0+1.7+1.2) instead of 11.2, and an LTD of 31,4 instead of 31,5
In FY 2010/2011 total should be 13.5 (2.8+6.3+2.7+1.7) instead of 13.7. This time the error doesn't interfere with LTD, that should be 55,2 instead of 55,3 (for the previous error in FY 2008/2009) so I think it's just a typo.
So (changes are bolded):
Code:
Xbox 360 Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)
FY Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr Ap-Jn FY LTD
2005/06 - 1.5 1.7 1.8 5.0 5.0
2006/07 1.0 4.4 0.5 0.7 6.6 11.6
2007/08 1.8 4.3 1.3 1.3 8.7 20.3
2008/09 2.2 6.0 1.7 1.2 11.[B]1[/B] 31.[B]4[/B]
2009/10 2.1 5.2 1.5 1.5 10.3 41.[B]7[/B]
2010/11 2.8 6.3 2.7 1.7 13.5 55.[B]2[/B]
2011/12 2.3 8.2 1.4 1.1 13.0 68.[B]2[/B]
2012/13 1.7 5.9 1.3 1.0 9.9 78.[B]1[/B]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2013/14 1.2 3.5 0.8 ? ? ?
- Xbox 360 sales rise to 84 million (June 9, 2014)Total console shipment for Q4 was 1,1m (360+XBO)
I'd find reasonable XBO>360 for this quarter so I'd go with ~0,5m for Xbox 360 in the last Q4 (as of the end of June 2014).
For Q1 i'm fine with the reasonable interventions from other fellow gaffers. ~1,7m XBOnes leave ~0,7m for Xbox 360 (2,4m is the total). A reasonable number because Q1 usually is bigger than Q4 and in-line with PS3 that sold 0,8m in the same quarter.
bold me if i'm wrong
StrongBlackVine
Banned
PS4 would already be close to 20 million sold if Xbox One launched a year later. It would literally be PS2 era domination again and Microsoft knew that.