semiconscious
Member
who knew that perfect dark was such a complicated, challenging franchise to come to grips with?...
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Miller Ross (Crystal Dynamics leaker): Perfect Dark hit road bumps, now expected to release at least a year after Tomb Raider
- Thread starter James Sawyer Ford
- Start date
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I dont think the handful of Perfect Dark games in the past were even big sellers. So I find it odd they'd commit to reboot the series as if there's millions of gamers amped up begging for a new game.
What's probably complicating things is what they talk about in their board meetings:
"Ok gang, should we or shouldnt we continue making this game for the 400,000 expected sales."
Kacho
Gold Member
Perfect Dark, Fable, Killer Instinct, Conker's Bad Fur Day, Banjo Kazooie, etc. These are the games they need to be making to win back the hearts and minds of gamers. They have incredible IP to mine and they better start chipping. If they can deliver a couple good revivals it would totally change the conversation which has a ripple effect across the information super highway.
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James Sawyer Ford
Member
Exactly. They are sitting on a literal GOLD MINE of cherished IP and all they need to do is properly utilize it.
These games used to have the hearts and minds of gamers in the late 90s and early 00s. They have the potential to be even bigger today.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
nostalgia is not enough
Iced Arcade
Member
James Sawyer Ford
Member
feynoob
Banned
Gold means nothing, if you can't spend it.
Xbox during Xbox one had small devs.
MS should have done these purchases long time ago.
As the old saying goes. Fuck around, and you will find out the harsh way.
bentanchorbolt
Banned
yeah, pretty much this. We’d be sitting fat with Xbox now if they’d have spent that money 2-3 years earlier instead of a year before next gen launched.
Grizzled Ghost
Member
At first I thought someone had bumped a post from the 90's
Kacho
Gold Member
Yep. It’s just one piece but an important one. These games appeal to people carrying conversations about video games on Twitter and message boards. They need to tap into that hard IMO. It’s awesome that a new Fable and PD are coming but they need more.
gothmog
Gold Member
Other than maybe Fable I don't think many would care about any of those franchises coming back.
The nostalgia comes from a time when Xbox resonated well with gamers in the 360 era. I don't think a revival of every franchise launched during that era will do anything other than truly convince younger gamers that the Xbox is not for them.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
There are credible rumors that Microsoft is working on a lower-priced Gamepass tier that would start from $3 per month, have no third-party games, feature in-game advertisements, and have first-party games 6 months after launch.
I think they will use this tier of Gamepass and put it on PlayStation and Nintendo.
The main objection against Gamepass by platform holders would be the existence of third-party games. This tier won't have any. From Xbox's perspective, Gamepass subscribers on Xbox/PC will play the game 6 months before Gamepass subscribers on PlayStation -- which will be in line with Microsoft's CFO statement of games being the best or first on Xbox.
I strongly believe that we'll see a future in the next few years where this would be happening -- especially if Xbox continues its current slide.
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Mibu no ookami
Banned
First, even with a 6-month gap, that would absolutely shred their stand-alone sales. For what at best would be the equivalent of 36 dollars (plus ads) and that is for a year-round commitment. That just isn't feasible, even with ads.
Neither Nintendo nor Sony want GamePass on their consoles. What would be the revenue sharing for this 3-dollar tier? It's not just the 3rd party games, it's the legal contracts to monetize royalties, which doesn't really apply to a subscription model.
At best you'd have to run the subs through PSN and Nintendo eShop exclusively. And again, I. don't see how that helps Microsoft at all.
If anything that would kill their console faster than anything else they could do, with the smallest payoff.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
They're already losing $200 per console sale; I don't think they see Xbox hardware in their future. Hence, the pivot to Gamepass.
You sell a console at loss because it'd be profitable when people purchase first-party and third-party games from your console store. First-party game sales have tanked by 80% since Gamepass. And we know even 3rd-party games do not sell as much on Xbox. So they wouldn't be recovering much money.
I can see how they'd like their subs on a bigger platform.
And PlayStation/Nintendo wouldn't lose anything -- as long as there are no third-party games on there. For instance, if there Hogwart's Legacy on that sub, PlayStation wouldn't agree to it. Because PS wants PS gamers to buy Hogwart's Legacy on PS so they'll get 30% revenue cut.
If there are only games like Starfield, Halo, Forza, Sea of Thieves, etc. then those are all new games for PlayStation. Nothing to lose there, only to gain.
Xbox has also been leaning more and more towards GaaS and MTX-based games. So in addition to $1 for every $3 sub, PlayStation would also be earning a 30% cut for all MTX and in-game purchases. And PS will effectively kill the Xbox console platform, becoming the sole under-the-tv console.
Currently GP earns $3 billion per year on Xbox/PC. They can add at least $3 billion more on PS and Nintendo. And PS can add $1 billion in their revenue (their 30% share) by doing nothing. It's a win-win for everyone.
Also see this in the context of Phil's recent statements that GP subs have saturated on Xbox consoles and now they're looking for growth on PC.
I think this strategy would make sense for Xbox. Go full third-party like EA and have their subscription on all platforms.
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gothmog
Gold Member
That or some subset of that would be the best thing for the industry. Where it gets hairy is when Microsoft starts eating up third parties like they're at a buffet. Why would Sony or Nintendo want Xbox on their platform eating into their revenue more and more?
semiconscious
Member
& done...
thing is, if they've actually already experienced difficulty over a period of time in attempting to crank out a perfect dark sequel, there're much bigger problems at the core of this than simply hitting a nostalgia button will fix...
It won't, I was just making an argument for how they can reduce cost in their service. Their problems are much bigger than costs like you mention thru this thread.
Nydius
Gold Member
I'm not at all surprised by this claim.
I posted a much longer version of this elsewhere so I won't fully repeat myself but outside of Halo, Gears, and Forza, Microsoft has mismanaged everything they've touched. They had so many IPs they could have grown but kept screwing the pooch. They crashed FASA into the ground and sold off Bizarre Creations for scraps. They almost completely destroyed RARE by flushing RARE's IPs down the crapper to make the studio work on Kinect and the X360 dashboard and avatar redesigns. They lost Bungie simply because they wouldn't let Bungie work on projects other than Halo.
Mismanagement is the only constant when it comes to Microsoft's gaming division.
I posted a much longer version of this elsewhere so I won't fully repeat myself but outside of Halo, Gears, and Forza, Microsoft has mismanaged everything they've touched. They had so many IPs they could have grown but kept screwing the pooch. They crashed FASA into the ground and sold off Bizarre Creations for scraps. They almost completely destroyed RARE by flushing RARE's IPs down the crapper to make the studio work on Kinect and the X360 dashboard and avatar redesigns. They lost Bungie simply because they wouldn't let Bungie work on projects other than Halo.
Mismanagement is the only constant when it comes to Microsoft's gaming division.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
If those three games, launching in one year aren't a needle mover. What is?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
- Starfield will, at least to an extent. But it's a new IP, unlike Elder Scrolls or Fallout. Skyrim sold more than 30 million copies; let's give Xbox 10 million (an equal 30% share). Let's assume Starfield reaches 75% of those sales (huge task, but let's assume). That'd put Xbox's Starfield customers around ~6.5 million. It's very reasonable to assume that ~80% of those customers would already be subscribed to Gamepass. At best, it'd bring 1-2 million new subscribers, who can drop after finishing Starfield.
- Forza is an old franchise. Anybody who is a hardcore fan of Forza is already an Xbox user and, most likely, already subscribed to Gamepass. It won't move the needle at all.
- Redfall, to be honest, doesn't look that good. There are games like Borderlands, L4D, Back for Blood, etc. that do the same thing. I don't foresee it making a big impact.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I'll wait until the 25th for some positive xbox news but I am sure there will be an considerable amount of downplaying everything that gets shown.
Starfield will move the needle. I'm expecting games media to go wild on coverage as more info comes out, just like they would over a mainline fallout or skyrim.
Redfall is more like far cry, dying light, etc than left 4 dead so has the potential to actually play amazingly well. I'm so hyped for it. I'm playing dying light 2 co op now and outside of the cringe dialogue and story stuff the game is effing awesome. Especially in co op.
So basically, only Sony games or rockstar or the biggest game in the last 10 years can move the needle? Seems about right that you would think that level.
You're talking like one top tier Sony game, the most famous super hero out side of batman and a rockstar title as the needle movers. I bet you only would date 10/10s (joke) x
Bonsaibäumchen
Member
Holy shit IG-advertisements whenever I read it sends shivers down my spine.
That would be the biggest red flag for me to stay away from it.
Its why I moved away from linear TV about 15 years ago and never looked back.
Now this shitty ads are returning slowly on streaming services and they are even thinking about adding them in games.
Guess in the future I'll have to board those jolly roger flagged ships again.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Let's see. But games like Starfield (or Fallout/Elder Scrolls) are slightly less accessible and more hardcore RPGs. They don't attract casual audience like a big story-driven game like Spider-Man or TLOU would.
And don't forget, we're talking about incremental/additional growth. How many non-gamers or non-Xbox users would see Starfield and Redfall and say, "OMG! I must play that game (even if I'm not a gamer)" or 'Look at those insane graphics" or "This looks like an amazing story and cinematic experience."
If those are non- or casual-gamers, they'd rather buy that one game. If they're hardcore gamers, they'd already be subscribed to Gamepass. That's why I'm not seeing a huge GP growth jump with these games. Even if these 2 games add 5 million subscribers, that's not a massive growth in one year.
Incremental growth is tough. We've seen PS+ struggling for the same reason for 5-7 quarters now. It can't go past that 48 million mark.
I also included Elden Ring on that list. Two of the games I mentioned are on Xbox. They are all big sellers; that's the point I'm making.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Im not interested in casual games, and millions upon millions of people want Bethesda mainline games like Fallout and Starfield. I wouldnt want MS to just start chasing after "casual" "mainstream" games....Thats like purposefuly trying to make a pop record to make it famous in music. THose kind of games should be organic. Or are you saying that God Of War is mainstream and "casual" becuase that game is huge and I wouldnt want to think that it was that type of game? :/
The systems and gameplay etc in RDR2 is far from casual or mainstream yet it can penetrate that because its an awesome game. Elden Ring is no where near casual or mainstream yet it absolutely blew up this year.
I just want good games and no one could have guessed that Elden Ring would have been as big as it was this year, or take as many game of the year awards even 2 weeks before it launched. Starfield could absolutely be huge.
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feynoob
Banned
Those rumors makes no sense.
Especially when MS is making family plan.
Banjo64
cumsessed
And when they do make a KI, Banjo or Battletoads game they literally just make 1 and when it doesn’t sell 5m they abandon it again right away. Did Team Ico, Japan Studios, Ratchet and Clank games ever sel gang busters? Nope. But they’re beloved and create good vibes.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
But that's Microsoft's target market. They want to appeal to the casual gamer audience. How else do they think to reach out to 3 billion gamers?
Xbox Wants To Get to 3 Billion Players With or Without Consoles, Says Publishing Head
Xbox wants to gain a massive amount of market share in the future: 3 billion players and they plan to bring their games to people with or without Xbox consoles.
www.techtimes.com
The problem is that the type of games they produce isn't in line with that objective.
God of War is anything but a casual game. Anyone who has beat Sigrun knows this lol.
But God of War also has cinematic elements: a proper cinematic narrative, a voiced character, top-notch motion-capture, top-notch graphics, etc. These elements appeal to non-gamers as well as hardcore gamers. Microsoft's current crop of games misses one or more of these elements.
For example, Starfield won't have cutscenes, motion capture, top-notch visuals, or a voiced character. It'll appeal to hardcore Bethesda fans and RPG gamers, but it will find it difficult to capture non-gamers or casual gamers' attention as much as a game like The Last of Us, Red Dead Redemption, or God of War would.
Riky
$MSFT
There are 35 million people who had an Xbox One who haven't got a Series Console yet.
They are getting next gen only games this year in Forza, Redfall and Starfield and probably Hellblade 2 in the fall for starters. They either sign up to Gamepass and stream them or get a new Console, that's before they reach outside the Xbox audience.
Plenty of growth to attain just there.
They are getting next gen only games this year in Forza, Redfall and Starfield and probably Hellblade 2 in the fall for starters. They either sign up to Gamepass and stream them or get a new Console, that's before they reach outside the Xbox audience.
Plenty of growth to attain just there.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
But that's Microsoft's target market. They want to appeal to the casual gamer audience. How else do they think to reach out to 3 billion gamers?
Xbox Wants To Get to 3 Billion Players With or Without Consoles, Says Publishing Head
Xbox wants to gain a massive amount of market share in the future: 3 billion players and they plan to bring their games to people with or without Xbox consoles.
The problem is that the type of games they produce isn't in line with that objective.
God of War is anything but a casual game. Anyone who has beat Sigrun knows this lol.
But God of War also has cinematic elements: a proper cinematic narrative, a voiced character, top-notch motion-capture, top-notch graphics, etc. These elements appeal to non-gamers as well as hardcore gamers. Microsoft's current crop of games misses one or more of these elements.
For example, Starfield won't have cutscenes, motion capture, top-notch visuals, or a voiced character. It'll appeal to hardcore Bethesda fans and RPG gamers, but it will find it difficult to capture non-gamers or casual gamers' attention as much as a game like The Last of Us, Red Dead Redemption, or God of War would.
I believe Microsoft are looking for a variety of games to appeal to the masses. Not big blockbuster AAA in complete essence, but that is where owning KING will come in etc. Mobile and streaming will be mainstream among a more casual fan base.
I feel that no one knows what the huge next big game is until it comes along. Thats why everyone from Sony to MS to Nintendo relies so heavily on sequels now. There's so much money and so much risk, to even attempt a new IP is extremely risky.
Props to Sony for GoT, Returnal and Days gone etc. One was a flop unfortunately, but returnal had chance to shine thanks to its lower budget. It's hard to create hype around a new IP, and its very difficult to make sequels so I dunno. We need to see how Horizon FW and Ragnarok perform VS the original releases.
All I'm trying to really say is, it's hard to identify what will be the next big game and Starfield has a much bigger chance of taking the industry by storm than any other game I can think of right now.
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Mibu no ookami
Banned
The only problem with your analysis is that the 30 million covers Xbox 360 and Xbox One. I'd also say Elder Scrolls was significantly more popular on 360 than PS3, so the percentage is probably more like 45 and I'd give 30%-40% to 360, so at the end your math probably works out for the most part. But I think the biggest question is does it bring in console sales. It'll have to be GOTY to do that and even then it might not move the needle as the conversation is going to be whether people are buying this or Spider-Man 2. Gift of the year is going to be Spider-Man 2. I think we can all assume that as most likely.
If Forza fans didn't already buy in for Forza Horizon, I don't think many will for Forza Motorsports. I know they aren't the same game, but Forza Horizon has outsold Motorsport as of late.
Agree on Redfall completely.
feynoob
Banned
That was quite the logic there.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
They aren't the same game, but they definitely share much of the same fanbase. Forza has been on a tremendous decline saleswise, especially Motorsports (which is why they're trying to reboot it).
Without the user base of the 360 the sales of this franchise just aren't holding up. Had Gran Turismo come to PC before Motorsport released, it would have really impacted its sales. Throw GamePass on top of that, and it isn't a great look. They're very fortunate that PD had to focus on VR instead of PC.
feynoob
Banned
I think it's better if you stop making these assumptions.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
What assumption have I made? That there aren't two entirely separate fanbases for Forza games out there and Motorsport fans entirely passed on the only premiere racing game on XS in Forza Horizon? And are waiting to buy XS just for Motorsport in droves?
Yup, you're right, I'm the one making assumptions. I'll stop. Sorry.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
5m sales?!
Isn't SoT a F2P game?
This is borderline delusional. He's the head of Microsoft Game Studios. He's not hired to be likable or humble. He's hired to lead the Xbox first-party publishing business to deliver first-party games. That's his role in a nutshell. He's categorically failed in that respect. Therefore, he needs to go.
feynoob
Banned
It's paid to play game.
Punished Miku
Human Rights Subscription Service
He seems fine to me. As I said, comes off very well in the interview and sounds intelligent, thoughtful, qualified. Sounds like he is mostly there to facilitate resources get to the studios, pretty much exactly as I suspected. And he talked about facilitating technology and knowledge sharing between studios at 20 different meetings a year.
If anything is messed up, it's likely the studio heads and game directors / producers. And we saw a studio head get fired recently.
As I said, no one here has any clue what this guy even does. I think you guys honestly think Phil Spencer himself is out there coding. There's layers, upon layers of managers that sit above the actual development. I didn't dislike anything he said. Sorry if that triggers you.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Damian black
Member
The issues with games like scalebound, fable legends and phantom dust last gen, were only the tip of the iceberg it seems.
diffusionx
Gold Member
They made and maintained a Killer Instinct all last gen, nobody cared. Your definition of incredible may be different from mine. But it doesn’t matter if they can’t actually deliver these games as we are seeing with Perfect Dark and possibly/probably Fable.
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NickFire
Member
My opinion is Fable and Conker are probably the 2 IPs listed there with value for general audiences. Perfect Dark was a great game but never had the magic of Bond. At least not in my circles. Was just something we played looking for a new Bond.
Kacho
Gold Member
Nah. Killer Instinct was very well received and a good game. One of the biggest fighting game streamers brought a lot of attention to it and he’s constantly asking for a new game. It might not be a 10 million seller but people care.
And yes, opinions differ on what is a good IP. Kinda goes without saying. Plenty of people don’t care about Shadow of the Colossus or Medieval but that didn’t stop Sony from throwing fans a bone.
Agree on your last point but that shouldn’t stop them from trying. Hope they can stick the landing with PD and Fable.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
Twenty years people have been predicting the end of the Xbox platform. It's pretty odd to see people thinking that Xbox games will go completely 3rd party especially when the narrative is the games are bad.
What does 'move the needle' mean anyway? Higher scores? Most first party Xbox games score well, even Halo Infinite. Is it more console sales? Xbox is the only platform that doesn't force gamers to buy their hardware so a console sales argument is incomplete at best.
I'm looking forward to the developer direct this week. The only needle mover is a release date for those games and for those Xbox games continue to score well.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
I mean people thought Sega would go 3rd party too... and eventually they did...
Not sure how the argument that something hasn't happened yet so it won't.
People can also think Microsoft will go 3rd party without actively wanting to play their games.
Would MSFT flight sim sell on PS5... maybe. Would Halo MMC? I think so. Gears of War trilogy? Absolutely. Not sure what else would make much of a dent.
When Sega first went 3rd party, they didn't really have much to bring over. Sonic Adventure sold fairly well. They waited too long on Shenmue. But other than that... they didn't have much.
Move the needle refers to the ratio in console sales. I don't think the console argument is incomplete. I think there are serious questions as to Microsoft's model and how sustainable it is.
Muay Ninja
Member
Quite possibly remote working, on top of economic changes around the world contributing to redundancies, reshuffles etc. It's been a massive challenge for a lot of games studios to adapt to this, regardless of whether many will admit it or not.
bentanchorbolt
Banned
Forza Motorsport is a marquee franchise for Xbox, and will move systems once its released. Probably not as many as a good Halo or other high end games with bigger fanbases, but games like Forza serve to deepen the portfolio of Xbox games and attract fans. It's a net positive to the ecosystem.
Mibu no ookami
Banned
That's ignoring the fact that Forza Horizon which is just as if not more popular has already been released on the system.
No one here is going to say Metal Gear Solid 3 is a system seller... Like people would have bought the system for Metal Gear Solid 2.
The franchise is already established on Xbox Series. Will it move a few units, obviously, a needle mover though? That's kind of farfetched.
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