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[*Splinter]

Actually no, Kawl has strayed further into questionable advice territory.

1. If only vanilla towns are encouraged to fake claim, that also helps scum narrow down the non-cop power roles. (I haven't studied bats' library of statistics so I don't know how valid this concern is.

2. A real cop doesn't check their top town read. Fake claiming needs a little more nuance to be convincing.

Bad Kawl, bad.

VOTE: Kawl_USC

 

[Kawl_USC]

And for those who didn't check the numbers super closely, cops are 50% more likely than doctors, masons, and vigs, while a blocker is 50% less likely than those 3 roles. (15, 10, 5 numbers out of 100 respectively.)

And The more power roles we end up having the more scum gets juiced.

 

[Ty4on]

He doesn't look like scum to me.

Are YOU scum?

Vote: Ty4on

I don't want any stone left unturned in our search.

No.

I can understand you prodding me after last game, but remember that unturned stones are those you forget about who avoid the debate.

It also makes it far easier for scum to track down the real cop, so I'm eyeing Kawl suspiciously for pushing it so strongly.

...eh. I was typing out a vote but remembered he tried the same thing last time we played live.

Eh. It makes sense to me either way that Kawl would post that. Also matches his previous post about the setup and spewing.

Eh it's better than people trying to play well hyper probably checked z and y because this post could be taken as an obscure breadcrumb which I believe happened in bloodborne? If the cop thinks they can coast and survive for sure then they don't have to stick their neck out. But providing them the option isn't the wrong move and it only requires a few vanilla town to be proactive.

I'm for peeking. Scum can also deduce the cop from breadcrumbs that are too obvious.

They may deduce the wrong person because the cop didn't breadcrumb anything. Not that I know anything about that >_>

 

[SkyOdin]

Wouldn't that just create confusion though? What if a cop gets a positive read on scum on Night 1 and tries to tell everyone, but it is buried under several fake claims? We wouldn't know the veracity of the claim until the cop dies, but the Mafia, seeing the accurate claim, could just hold off on killing the cop and instead discredit them in the thread.

I suppose that would be a difficult and risky play for the Mafia. Giving a known cop more time to gather more intel is bad no matter what.

*sigh*

We are going to have no way of knowing if any cop claim is true or not, aren't we? With an unknown number of cops, we have no way of being certain of anything.

 

[*Splinter]

Wouldn't that just create confusion though? What if a cop gets a positive read on scum on Night 1 and tries to tell everyone, but it is buried under several fake claims? We wouldn't know the veracity of the claim until the cop dies, but the Mafia, seeing the accurate claim, could just hold off on killing the cop and instead discredit them in the thread.

I suppose that would be a difficult and risky play for the Mafia. Giving a known cop more time to gather more intel is bad no matter what.

*sigh*

We are going to have no way of knowing if any cop claim is true or not, aren't we? With an unknown number of cops, we have no way of being certain of anything.

Fake claims always use a town result, I guess. Extremely unlikely not to backfire otherwise.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Actually no, Kawl has strayed further into questionable advice territory.

1. If only vanilla towns are encouraged to fake claim, that also helps scum narrow down the non-cop power roles. (I haven't studied bats' library of statistics so I don't know how valid this concern is.

2. A real cop doesn't check their top town read. Fake claiming needs a little more nuance to be convincing.

Bad Kawl, bad.

VOTE: Kawl_USC

Yes real cop doesn't check their top town. But the fake cops must. Otherwise they risk the person they claim to have checked being scum outing them as a faker. We average like 3.5 power roles. The first cop is only one shot. Once they get their cleared person out there they aren't particularly more valuable than any one else actually. But 2 c's feel right here.

 

[Ty4on]

Wouldn't that just create confusion though? What if a cop gets a positive read on scum on Night 1 and tries to tell everyone, but it is buried under several fake claims? We wouldn't know the veracity of the claim until the cop dies, but the Mafia, seeing the accurate claim, could just hold off on killing the cop and instead discredit them in the thread.

Then they claim for real.

1v1 trades are always good for town.

 

[*Splinter]

Wouldn't that just create confusion though? What if a cop gets a positive read on scum on Night 1 and tries to tell everyone, but it is buried under several fake claims? We wouldn't know the veracity of the claim until the cop dies, but the Mafia, seeing the accurate claim, could just hold off on killing the cop and instead discredit them in the thread.

I suppose that would be a difficult and risky play for the Mafia. Giving a known cop more time to gather more intel is bad no matter what.

*sigh*

We are going to have no way of knowing if any cop claim is true or not, aren't we? With an unknown number of cops, we have no way of being certain of anything.

I didn't see the bolded before. That gets a great big Hmm from me

 

[Kawl_USC]

Wouldn't that just create confusion though? What if a cop gets a positive read on scum on Night 1 and tries to tell everyone, but it is buried under several fake claims? We wouldn't know the veracity of the claim until the cop dies, but the Mafia, seeing the accurate claim, could just hold off on killing the cop and instead discredit them in the thread.

I suppose that would be a difficult and risky play for the Mafia. Giving a known cop more time to gather more intel is bad no matter what.

*sigh*

We are going to have no way of knowing if any cop claim is true or not, aren't we? With an unknown number of cops, we have no way of being certain of anything.

Peeking is for post flip cops.

If there is ever a cop claim to hit scum you lynch the other person and if they aren't scum you lunch the cop claim. 1 for 1 is gold especially on day 2.

 

[*Splinter]

Yes real cop doesn't check their top town. But the fake cops must. Otherwise they risk the person they claim to have checked being scum outing them as a faker. We average like 3.5 power roles. The first cop is only one shot. Once they get their cleared person out there they aren't particularly more valuable than any one else actually. But 2 c's feel right here.

2 c's? What?

 

[Kawl_USC]

I didn't see the bolded before. That gets a great big Hmm from me

I'll actually agree with that. Town is always at a loss for what is going on especially at the beginning of the game where no one has been able to gather any information or suss out who feels town.

But I also think I'm just being unclear and confusing to those unfamiliar with the terms.

 

[Ty4on]

I didn't see the bolded before. That gets a great big Hmm from me

Seriously?

What's so hard to distinguish between:

I peeked Ty4on last night.

and

I'm the real cop and Timeaisis is scum.

Vote: Timeasis

 

[SkyOdin]

I didn't see the bolded before. That gets a great big Hmm from me

I understand why you are going "hmm", but it is just me stressing about things unnecessarily. With an unknown number of cops/doctors/whatever, we can't definitively rule out a fake claim without a confession or a role flip.

My worries are probably unfounded.

 

[Kawl_USC]

2 c's? What?

The way the set up is determined. 2 c's (51-65 in the rng 1-100 with 7 numbers chosen) yields 1 full cop. 1 c yields a 1 shot cop.

 

[Kawl_USC]

I understand why you are going "hmm", but it is just me stressing about things unnecessarily. With an unknown number of cops/doctors/whatever, we can't definitively rule out a fake claim without a confession or a role flip.

My worries are probably unfounded.

Again peeks only come into play post flip. They exist to enable the cop to not go to his grave with extra information without having to fully out himself.

 

[SkyOdin]

Peeking is for post flip cops.

If there is ever a cop claim to hit scum you lynch the other person and if they aren't scum you lunch the cop claim. 1 for 1 is gold especially on day 2.

Seriously?

What's so hard to distinguish between:

and

My confusion comes from having never seen the "peeked X player" before in any of these Mafia games. The strategy is unfamiliar to me.

 

[*Splinter]

I'll actually agree with that. Town is always at a loss for what is going on especially at the beginning of the game where no one has been able to gather any information or suss out who feels town.

But I also think I'm just being unclear and confusing to those unfamiliar with the terms.

Seriously?

What's so hard to distinguish between:

and

My bad, should have described what I was actually looking at.

SkyOdin was either confused about how fake peeking worked or was preemptively trying to sow doubt on any future cop claims. On first read I thought it was the latter but on further reflection that would be pretty dumb.

 

[Kawl_USC]

My confusion comes from having never seen the "peeked X player" before in any of these Mafia games. The strategy is unfamiliar to me.

That's cause gafia meta is generally trash.

YEA I SAID IT COME AT ME

Spoiler

But no in actuality it is of more use when you have an idea of the setup and we have tended to run crazy, more out there set ups in gafia.

 

[Ty4on]

My confusion comes from having never seen the "peeked X player" before in any of these Mafia games. The strategy is unfamiliar to me.

It's from mafia universe. Peeking is its own term there.

I learned it from reading their games thinking "WTF is a peek?" and looking it up. I think fake peek is what non cops' peek are called.

 

[Ty4on]

That's cause gafia meta is generally trash.

YEA I SAID IT COME AT ME

Spoiler

But no in actuality it is of more use when you have an idea of the setup and we have tended to run crazy, more out there set ups in gafia.

I'm for breaking the Gafia meta and lynching scum D1.

My gut has a slight town lean on Splinter.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Second

VOTE: Hyperactivity

I don't pay attention to juniors

It would involve at least a handful of players opening the day tomorrow by saying, if I'm cop I checked so and so last night and they are town.

Enough people do this and it makes it so mafia doesn't know who to kill as the cop, but if the cop is flipped so there after we have a definitive person they checked out as clear.

Typically you want vanilla townies to jump on this grenade as they want to be a shield for the cop. It requires said townie to pick basically their top town person. If you pick wrong and say so and so is town but really they are scum, then mafia knows you are lying and won't nk you.

What's to stop scum from getting in on that and saying one of their scum mates is town, and for all we know, we have no clue

It also makes any doctors' job particularly hard, not even counting the fact that 1-shot cop is our most likely claim

Fake claims always use a town result, I guess. Extremely unlikely not to backfire otherwise.

And what's to stop an ordinary from screwing up and telling everybody one of the scum is innocent?

 

[SkyOdin]

You guys need to create a Mafia dictionary for the sake of us newbies.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Alright got my 10 posts. I'll see you suckas laaaataaaaaa

 

[Ty4on]

The backpedal was a little weird though:

My bad, should have described what I was actually looking at.

---------------------------------------------------

You guys need to create a Mafia dictionary for the sake of us newbies.

Mafia Universe actually has one. Gonna look it up now.

 

[Catvoca]

Hey, excited to be playing with everyone!

Yes real cop doesn't check their top town. But the fake cops must. Otherwise they risk the person they claim to have checked being scum outing them as a faker. We average like 3.5 power roles. The first cop is only one shot. Once they get their cleared person out there they aren't particularly more valuable than any one else actually. But 2 c's feel right here.

I don't get this part about the fake cops having to post their top town as the ones they checked. Why do they do that? It seems like it would make the real cop easier to find.

 

[Kawl_USC]

I don't pay attention to juniors



What's to stop scum from getting in on that and saying one of their scum mates is town, and for all we know, we have no clue

It also makes any doctors' job particularly hard, not even counting the fact that 1-shot cop is our most likely claim


And what's to stop an ordinary from screwing up and telling everybody one of the scum is innocent?

Because it's value is just in case the cop is night killed before he has a list of town or one scum worth coming forward with. You shouldn't base any actions on peeks. Ignore it unless someone peeking flips cop. I could care less tomorrow who says to have peeked who until they flip.

Don't like this post though.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Somehow I missed day star. :/


Welp, no use in crying about it now, let's do this town!

Vote: Kawl_USC


This is not random unlike my usual day one votes. Belong late does have it's perks it seems. I don't like him going straight to power role speculation right out of the gate. It's very much WIFOM, but doing so is a very easy way for a scum player to get a head start and some town leadership cred.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Hey, excited to be playing with everyone!



I don't get this part about the fake cops having to post their top town as the ones they checked. Why do they do that? It seems like it would make the real cop easier to find.

Because everyone's top town is different. I know I've vehemently disagreed with people's top towns before. So actual cop would check someone who has been active and vocal and a bit off to them. Either it's scum or just spin it as an active poster being your top town.

 

[Kawl_USC]

And as a fake peek you have to pick someone who's likely to be town so you don't expose yourself as a fraud. That would undo all the good the fake peek is doing in the first place.

 

[Ty4on]

*big sigh*

We likely have a cop of some sort in this game. Instead of breadcrumbing peeks give them a pool to hide in where we can easily find out post flip whom they had investigated.

It also makes any doctors' job particularly hard, not even counting the fact that 1-shot cop is our most likely claim

This is a good point though. I guess we could include in peeks:

I peeked Ty4on last night. If I'm one shot this was my shot.

And still peek like normal the other days.

You guys need to create a Mafia dictionary for the sake of us newbies.

Here it is:
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...nter-Confirmations)/page9?p=286889#post286889

 

[Kawl_USC]

Somehow I missed day star. :/


Welp, no use in crying about it now, let's do this town!

Vote: Kawl_USC


This is not random unlike my usual day one votes. Belong late does have it's perks it seems. I don't like him going straight to power role speculation right out of the gate. It's very much WIFOM, but doing so is a very easy way for a scum player to get a head start and some town leadership cred.

That's...that's not what WIFOM means.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I'm literally not reading a single post, I'm just going to wait for Cabot to get lyncharoonied

 

[SkyOdin]

Because everyone's top town is different. I know I've vehemently disagreed with people's top towns before. So actual cop would check someone who has been active and vocal and a bit off to them. Either it's scum or just spin it as an active poster being your top town.

I do think that it is a bit odd of a suggestion. We can talk about top town picks independently of the "peeks". I do realize that peeking a mafia member would immediately tip them off that the "peek"er isn't a real cop, but picking your top town doesn't necessarily prevent that situation. Sticking to "don't fake peek the people you think are mafia" seems like the simpler advice.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

That's...that's not what WIFOM means.

Yes it is?

Any time we talk about "If X is scum" it is Wine In Front Of Me by virtue of it potentially leading to circular logic.

 

[Ty4on]

I'm literally not reading a single post, I'm just going to wait for Cabot to get lyncharoonied

I noticed both of you being there for the opening and then promptly going silent.

 

[Kawl_USC]

I do think that it is a bit odd of a suggestion. We can talk about top town picks independently of the "peeks". I do realize that peeking a mafia member would immediately tip them off that the "peek"er isn't a real cop, but picking your top town doesn't necessarily prevent that situation. Sticking to "don't fake peek the people you think are mafia" seems like the simpler advice.

...which inherently would be your top town

 

[Ty4on]

...which inherently would be your top town

Kawl, who's you top town?

 

[Catvoca]

And as a fake peek you have to pick someone who's likely to be town so you don't expose yourself as a fraud. That would undo all the good the fake peek is doing in the first place.

This is why I was confused, like a Cop can't scum read someone in thread, check them and find their town, and post their results because it immediately outs them. So your plan would mean the cop has to only check someone that they their behavior has indicted that they think is town. Doesn't this sort of handicap the Cop in a way then? It protects them (probably) but stops them from checking people they prod in thread as scum?

 

[Kawl_USC]

No one. I don't plan on tossing around even partial clears in my mind this quickly. Scum until earned otherwise.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Kawl, who's you top town?

*Checks page number* 2

...


Huh?

 

[Ty4on]

No one. I don't plan on tossing around even partial clears in my mind this quickly. Scum until earned otherwise.

*Checks page number* 2

...


Huh?

>_>

You don't have anything? Anyone who feels off?

 

[Kawl_USC]

This is why I was confused, like a Cop can't scum read someone in thread, check them and find their town, and post their results because it immediately outs them. So your plan would mean the cop has to only check someone that they their behavior has indicted that they think is town. Doesn't this sort of handicap the Cop in a way then? It protects them (probably) but stops them from checking people they prod in thread as scum?

cop results either what are crucially important to town towards in game. Id take 3 confirmed town over 1 scum read if the later resulted in cop dying night 2 and the cop is alive in end game in the later.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Setup:
C9++

Facts about the setup that may be useful while playing:
- The roles in this game are randomly generated and randomly assigned.
- The role distribution can be assumed to be reasonably fair. If town is powerful, mafia will likewise be powerful and vice versa.
- 50% of all possible setups contain a Serial Killer.
- Possible non-town roles in this setup with odds:

• 0.78125% = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
• 5.46875% = Goon + Godfather
• 16.40625% = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
• 27.34375% = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
• 27.34375% = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
• 16.40625% = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
• 5.46875% = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
• 0.78125% = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

- Town roles will be a combination of ordinary townies and some selection of these town power rules: cop, doctor, vigilante, mason, innocent child, and/or roleblocker.
- Town power roles can be either 1 shot OR unlimited.
- The full process for selecting roles if anyone is interested is here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++

According to this, we have about a 77.34% chance of having a roleblocker, not even counting the slight possibility of having a town one getting in our way. So yeah, if we have a cop, a straight claim without much to show is pretty terrible, especially without any watchers or trackers

My major concern here is that while statistically, more non-cop cop claims raises the odds the cop doesn't die, should we have a doctor, that doctor wouldn't know where he should aim.

So then, you have a situation where the cop is protected by numbers, but if scum guess right and the doctor wrong, that swings the game a bunch. Because we relied on the pure probability of it all, the scum is much less defended from an actual kill.

And don't forget the scum roleblocker that we probably have. Let's say we have 4 cop claims in total. For one, you've mentioned that you hope ordinaries jump on this, but if scum get lucky and guess right, hoorah, you've outlined a whole bunch of players scum won't look at to be targeted. If those players are prs, they just drew a target on themselves.

So let's say 4 claims in total. Scum just have to kill and block one pair, and then the other. If at any point the real cop is blocked, he would have to give a bs guess to make it not obvious, and if he calls the sk or scum town? This has the nice side effect of making scum think the cop is fake, but it also helps them sift through the fakes more easily

And at the end of this all, our most likely option is that we just have a 1-shot cop

 

[Ty4on]

This is why I was confused, like a Cop can't scum read someone in thread, check them and find their town, and post their results because it immediately outs them. So your plan would mean the cop has to only check someone that they their behavior has indicted that they think is town. Doesn't this sort of handicap the Cop in a way then? It protects them (probably) but stops them from checking people they prod in thread as scum?

I kinda agree fake peeks should be a bit more random instead of top town.

Not sure what the odds are for at least one get a clean sweep of only clearing townies.

 

[Kawl_USC]

>_>

You don't have anything? Anyone who feels off?

Hyper and cabbie.

 

[batsnacks]

DAY 1 VOTES

hyperactivity (0)
kristoffer 23 (46)

cabot (2)
kawl_usc 24
lone_prodigy 31 (31)
*splinter 37 (51)
kristoffer 46

yesnononoyes (1)
cabot 27

kristoffer (1)
ty4on 29

kawl_usc (3)
lone_prodigy 31
*splinter 51
terrabyte20xx 77

ty4on (1)
skyodin 39

DAY 1 ENDS:

 

[Ty4on]

Peeks are not fake claims Hyper. Never been in a game where we make them, but I'm pretty sure everybody are supposed to peek.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

terrabyte and splinter are my top scum. Vote cabot.

 

[Hyperactivity]

cop results either what are crucially important to town towards in game. Id take 3 confirmed town over 1 scum read if the later resulted in cop dying night 2 and the cop is alive in end game in the later.

This is true, but I feel the most effective cop play remains the same as always: sift through the townies, hiding them in your gut reads, townie lists, etc, until you find a scum.

If you find scum N1, breadcrumb it, but maybe confirm another townie N2 (although with the high chance of us having an SK, this might be overly dangerous)

 

[Ty4on]

Hyper and cabbie.

Thanks. I don't think anything of Hyper so far, but it looks like we agree on cabot.