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Mini Mafia III |OT| An Amazing Alien Abduction Adventure

Kawl_USC

Member
If we aren't mass claiming how does the math look on the other M coming forward? If we lynch scum today and they don't reveal it gives us an additional confirmed town or at worst a heads up situation with a counterclaim. But is there any world in which scum don't kill kyan tonight?
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
Asking for teams create more or less wifom in your opinion?

There has to be team accusations at this point. Otherwise, anyone can just latch onto one player/a gaggle of posts to pass it off as "effort".

Even a wrong connection is, if well argued and substantiated, at least a display of effort. Unless scum are putting their all into this games scum will on average care less about the game than town.

Consider, scum would've just chuckled amusedly at kyan's claims whereas any real town would be poring over the previous pages.
 
I'm still leaning toward Haly and Squid as previously mentioned as scum. Kyan is relatively in the clear and feeling decent about Tim and Gorlak being town.

Kawl seems reengerized this day phase so I'm warming up to him again.

Crab, I could make arguments either way. Sometimes he seems the very helpful townie and other times aloof or preoccupied scum.
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
I really think the other M should claim within 24 hours of today's start (so in like... 20 hours?). People need to be given time to process and reevaluate, as well as counterclaim should the need arise, though I doubt scum would risk such a play at this juncture.
 

CzarTim

Member
Everyone make your case for your scum team please?

Or just make the case for one scum?

Would feel more confident in naming full teams if we had at least one scum flip.

Right now wondering if the team is crab / melon / squid or gor

Don't see gor and squid on the same scum team. Gor calls squid out for a mistake in #89. No one else scum read squid for this except gor, just seems like a weird way to bus. Of the two, think I scum read squid more (his post coming up.)

Mel was scum reading lp d1 for a lot of the same reasons I was, which led me to town read her. However looking at day two she basically provides nothing of use until specifically asked. Wondering if she just latched onto my push and added some meta reasoning to justify it. She is town reading crab and gor, scum reading squid. Both she and crab were/are pushing Haly.


Still don't see Haly's reaction yesterday as scum's unless he is godfather. I think his posts come off as him processing whereas I think scum would have done a lot of that in the scum thread. I might have felt worse about his crab vote had time not flipped sk.

Kawl, was town reading day 1, but need to read through him again.

I need to build a scum team that does not include crab just to see how it tastes. Will do tomorrow.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I think if we come down on feeling crab again I'd like team reads based on assuming crab is scum. Or whenever we have commitment on who we are voting out. That person is scum or game is over with. That way we get scum team thoughts from whoever gets NKd
 

CzarTim

Member
Squid: D1 he is very contrarian. His reasoning for voting kyan is super lazy, "shit posting." He pretty much dismisses every other lynch which reads to me like he is distancing himself.

Gumpy:
This day 1 is looking like an absolute hot mess. By no means do I think the early bandwagoneers on LP are necessarily town but as per my previous discussion on the subject it makes me less likely to want to lynch them over most other people in the game right now.

Ugh, yall keep trying to pull me away from Nioh.

A lot of his posts come across as if he is making them out of obligation. I know he is aggressive, but it has been unhelpful this game.

Only reason I am hesitating here is his push for kyan yesterday was so dumb I don't know why scum would even suggest it.

Still I think I'd vote for squid before gor. Gor at least seems like he's trying to solve the game, even if it comes across as by the numbers. Squid is just pushing back for the sake of it.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I really think the other M should claim within 24 hours of today's start (so in like... 20 hours?). People need to be given time to process and reevaluate, as well as counterclaim should the need arise, though I doubt scum would risk such a play at this juncture.
If they aren't under pressure does that make sense though? If they aren't likely to be lynched and don't feel that town is lynching someone they don't agree is scum, what's the driving force on claiming there?
 
DAY 3 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

Haly (1)
squidyj 915

No active vote for Day 3: Crab, CzarTim, Gorlak, Haly, Kawl_USC, Kyanrute, melonrabbit


Day 3 ends:
bla_1487109600.png

Automated vote tally here

5 votes for majority
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
If they aren't under pressure does that make sense though? If they aren't likely to be lynched and don't feel that town is lynching someone they don't agree is scum, what's the driving force on claiming there?

Making it easier for me to form the team in my head and sort stuff out. Like, for example, Gorlaks is clearly not the mason so we can cross that off the list. If Crab turned out to be the mason this completely fucks with my reads and I'd rather have it cleared out before I go deep. If either you or Tim claimed Mason, then I can also stop second guessing myself because you and Tim are in my blindspot for the moment. That just leaves melon and squidy for me, and a melon mason would fuck with my reads quite a bit as well. Squidyj as mason would make sense to me.

Although I don't want Kyan revealing what kind of cop he is just yet. If he does, then scum knows what's safe/not safe to claim anymore in the case they need to throw off a train. The information is not that valuable to us at this point, we should treat this as MyLo MMMTTTC, that's the safest course of action going forward.
 

squidyj

Member
Squid: D1 he is very contrarian. His reasoning for voting kyan is super lazy, "shit posting." He pretty much dismisses every other lynch which reads to me like he is distancing himself.

Gumpy:




A lot of his posts come across as if he is making them out of obligation. I know he is aggressive, but it has been unhelpful this game.

Only reason I am hesitating here is his push for kyan yesterday was so dumb I don't know why scum would even suggest it.

Still I think I'd vote for squid before gor. Gor at least seems like he's trying to solve the game, even if it comes across as by the numbers. Squid is just pushing back for the sake of it.

I am obligated to make 10 posts a day phase and try to keep town from destroying itself over bullshit but Nioh is really good and I hate you all for taking up my time.
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
The case for Crab and Melon

D1:
Here are the deceased's opinions on Crab:
So I was rereading and I saw that Crab posted this:
http://i.imgur.com/8kmoSha.png

Arent Crab and Tim voting LP for basically the same reasons? Why is Crab posting this about Tim who started the LP wagon, who he agrees with?

nah.

Vote: Crab

I'd rather it be Time, but if I have to tie it up, then here I go.
(This one isn't really valid as it was a semi-preservation vote but Ouro did gut-read Time correctly.)

Time explains it better than I can.

VOTE: Crab

That could be why crab has been so quiet lately. He found an easy wagon and posting more would just draw more attention to himself and his reasoning, so he's content to coast after some posts of substance yesterday.

Czar was also on Crab the second half of D1. I don't see anything manufactured about their back and forth, and I feel pretty good about Czartim.

Crab flipflopping on L_P/Ouro. It's clear either one was okay by him. Granted, they were both pretty scummy but he just stands out as being particularly flipfloppy. I preferred the votes that chose one of the two and stuck by it. Flipflopping leaves room for opportunism, and opportunism is scummy.
I want to vote for Oorubulos just to make the point that Ourobulus is a fun thing to type and have to excuses to put in a sentence like so: "Ourubulos", but for the time being I most want answers from Lone_Prodigy.

VOTE: Lone_Prodigy

Going to be p. upset if we don't lynch Ouro at this point. It would basically entrench the idea that to succeed as GAFia scum you just post a lot but make sure there's not much of value.

eh fuck it.

I'm game if you are.

VOTE: Lone_Prodigy

When pressed about flipflopping:

It's not for funsies and I still highly suspect Ouro, but I don't want to enter some sort of Crab-Ouro race, because I'm not interested in getting lynched. If people will take L_P, and I suspect L_P (which I do; he was my first fos before I switched to Ouro because L_P was overdiscussed early on), that's a sensible decision for me.

Here, he would frame it as though it's the sensible decision to start a train for L_P. This is true. But at least I don't think he was at great risk of being lynched. I think Ouro had the momentum, but Crab wanted to be super duper sure. He roped in one supporter with Ouro, which makes two votes immediately, and then called in a third. Who was the third L_P vote? It was melon.

Really? Now we start this?

VOTE: Lone_Prodigy

Even IF the train failed, he removed one vote from himself which is more assurance for his safety. Also, I think L_P was right in retrospect. The last vote out the door was Gorlak on Ourobolos, creating a tie that was decided by a coinflip. Bats would've tipped it for L_P but failed his vote.

Two-horse race? I get the feeling this is town-town and scum are splitting.

D2:
Crab train starts. CzarTim, me and squidyj. This sends him into panic mode that lasts until the end of D2.

Crab analyzes D1:
If we have only one, which is it more likely we have? Well, I think Ourobolus is the more likely target for the mafia kill, by a large margin. He contributed almost no material in the first day, but has a reputation for being a good player. This means that he's dangerous - an unknown quantity with the potential to do a lot of damage. We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone. There were early pushes on Haly and Kawl which didn't go further, and a latter push on Time and then Lone_Prodigy. We know that Ouro was wrong on Lone_Prodigy anyway, and I don't think the first two are really enough for us to look at. So Ouro's death doesn't give us any associations except possibly Time.

...

The above in itself I think gives a final clue, which is: mafia are relatively competent. I think a weaker mafia would have gone for CCS, or failing that someone like CzarTim or myself, aiming to get rid of the Innocent Child or town players with a reasonable track record.
This contradicts with what Time says later.
The last thought I have is on the ouro death. I'm going to assume bats was the scum kill. He stirs up trouble for either side, he has a predictably unpredictable playstyle, and he's a solid n1 kill for mafia. Ouro, on the other hand, is troublesome but only to a few people (myself being one of them). But a good portion of heat was on him yesterday. Mafia might have felt that an ouro lynch was inevitable enough to not waste a night kill on him, unless the situation was dire and they needed ouro eliminated quick.
Why the contradiction? Well, he sets up another defense here:
We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone.

Could be WIFOM but Ouro's votes were for Time (confirmed SK), Gorlak (under suspicion), and Crab (under suspicion)

This is probably the only point I'll give to Crab in this post, and it's even possible he's mason and I've misread this whole thing:
Final thought: mason. I don't think batsnack's partner should come forward yet, given that I suspect we do not have many PRs. There are not enough to keep two innos safe when they make tempting kills. However, I do think they need to pay very careful attention to LYLO. If they claim on LYLO, someone will *definitely* counter-claim, and so we go to 50/50 Thunderdome style shenanigans. But if the missing mason claims the day before LYLO, even if there is a counter-claim, and we lynch incorrectly, we go into LYLO with confirmed scum. So the missing mason needs to pay very careful attention to the number of players remaining and whether next day could be in LYLO or not, and always claim the day before LYLO (which is probably tomorrow, but hey we could hit the SK today)

Crab tries to turn my attention to Time here:
Haly, what do you think about Time given how the day ended?

That question can also be answered by CCS, but Haly first plx.

I quote this again as part of my argument, it reads like scum panic even when there was nothing to be worried about in the first place:
Can't post properly as at work but I am one vote from hammer at this point, so can at least one person unvote until I get back?

Crab throws out some WIFOM for his dancing monkeys:
You forgot 5.: mafia know their own roles, so they know how many Ts town rolled, so they are likely to be able to work out whether a claim is safe or not. It could be mafia know there can't be a cop, and are claiming a cop because it won't be counter-claimed. By bussing scum Haly as a claimed-cop with no counter-claim, Kyan would be given complete and total town confidence, all the way to end-game.

Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.

melon ever so slightly throws in with crab, and I'm not sure how she can call Kawl forgetful this game, he's been consistently contributing since the start:
Karl is quite forgetful in this game and I'm not sure why that is.

I don't immediate find Crab as suspect as everyone else. Do think they are likely a PR.

Only squidy catches this
wut.
You think crab is a town PR and you decide to tell everyone. ok.

So far he's dropped this line of reasoning, why?
So where is this pressure coming from, why on me, and why is it seemingly immune to statements of the obvious like Time/Kyan being today's decision? I thought at first it was ordinary tunnelling - a few people randomly picked me D1, and then people rarely change their minds - once you're pegged as scummy even incorrectly and on D1, people rarely revert to thinking of you as town. Now, however, I'm thinking there is malicious intent.

Shortly I'm going to post my D1 end analysis, but I also want to examine more closely the pressure on me as an extension of that post, because it just isn't sitting right with me.

I'm tired and getting long-winded but this is more or less my evidence against Crab. He tried to play town leader. Town wasn't having it. He's been consistently pressured from day 1 and never in that much danger of being voted out at the end of the day, yet still feels obligated to manipulate events such that we will leave him alone. There's a kind of paranoia there I don't associate with town!Crab, but I've only seen him play once or twice. Maybe I'm overestimating his abilities?

Melon has been keeping her distance. They never step on each others toes, and just lightly brush past each other every day phase. In another game, OW or Bloodborne maybe, I said GAFia has a tendency to tunnel vision on overt connections but ignore "lack" of connections. I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm assured town!melon is an active and robust player, but she has delivered no significant pressure on anyone other than myself, L_P (which we know is wrong), while every-so-often giving Crab her backing.

Observe:

So, anyways, I want to hear from the crab.

VOTE: Crab
I would still like to hear from Crab but also want more from Kyan before everyone - per usual - forgets he is playing until 30 minutes before deadline.
Has crab still not posted?
the crab (finally) speaks.

does it sing also?

Crab, I don't know how to interpret and so I'm blind there.

You forgot 5.: mafia know their own roles, so they know how many Ts town rolled, so they are likely to be able to work out whether a claim is safe or not. It could be mafia know there can't be a cop, and are claiming a cop because it won't be counter-claimed. By bussing scum Haly as a claimed-cop with no counter-claim, Kyan would be given complete and total town confidence, all the way to end-game.

Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.

No, not necessarily. My scum experience in Mini 1 says other wise. While we had more information than town at the start it was still difficult to determine if PR claims were legit.
I don't immediate find Crab as suspect as everyone else. Do think they are likely a PR.
Take the prior day when everyone was arguing Ouro or LP (or Crab) and he jumps into to vote Kyan without any explanation. I feel that he tends to show up in the middle of conversations but never really starts one or engages in one directly.
Crab, I could make arguments either way. Sometimes he seems the very helpful townie and other times aloof or preoccupied scum.

Seems normal, right? But look at it from Crab's end:
wut

Gorlak's done a lot of work. He's pushed Kawl, relatively untouched by most other players, went after melon's vote on LP, which is like the only LP vote not discussed to death at this point, pushed batsnacks on squidy. He's not given many reads, I agree, and I'd like to see one before day end for obvious reasons, but in terms of getting other players to have to put forward commentary, he's done better than most other players. Genuinely not sure why you'd be looking at Gorlak as a priority.

Melon did, Kawl did, Czar did, Kyan did, and batsnacks tried to. Even worse, they did so after me, and let me take the flak. That's a great thing for scum to hide in. So why is it suddenly Crab, Crab, Crab? How do I pick up 5 votes today in less than a page? That's bullshit. There is a scum vote in there, and increasingly I think it's Haly.

I've tracked Crab enough over my reads and rereads of D1 and D2 and he has given everyone their due... except melon. These are the only hits when you search his posts for "melon". Again, I might be overstimating town!Crab but I find it difficult to believe he went through two tumultous days and all he has regarding melon are these two posts.

(You'll note there's a Gorlak defense there as well.)

Anyway, that was part one. I had a part two where I deliberated over squidyj vs Gorlak as the third member but I'm too exhausted to go over D1 and D2 again with a fine comb. While writing this, I've come to the conclusion that it's very likely Gorlak is the third partner(and bats' gut read was on the mark), and I'm starting to build up squidyj as our missing mason in my mind.

I will, however, be going through batsnacks' history to see if there's a hint of the other mason in there.

I encourage the remaining players to go back through D1 and D2 and form their own conclusions. It's not a ton of material, and most of it is fluff.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Essentially, the idea was that I am a fake cop and the scum team is something like me-Crab-Time. We choose to sac time to gain massive #townpoints. We can do this because we know our roles and we know that the game is MMM****.

But the info, according to Kawl, ain't enough to conclude (1) that there is not a real cop in the game nor is it not enough to conclude (2) that there is not a SK in the game. 1 means that the gambit fails instantly if there is a cop. 2 means that the moment someone theorizes that I am doing a wild scum gambit, the SK knows of this possibility too. SK wants to be the last one alive so there will be a point when they want to kill scum, and I'd be the 1st one on their targets.

or something like this, i am getting bit confused too

this post along with some of the other stuff towards the end of day 2 has me at 99% kyan is town. if he is scum, i'm okay with giving scum the win, that was a hell of a play to manage to nail the sk with a fake gambit, and there should be another town PR to step forward to throw shade at him.

Its 4:1 odds that we are in a MMMX game over a MMMXXX game though.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
MMMCCCT

haly said we have 2 or 0 PR remaining, my assumption was that he meant a 1-shot cop like, say, kyan, for example wasn't being counted.

There's a world where we have 1 PR remaining that Haly brushed over.

I'm pretty sure he meant the letters over the actual # of PRs. the whole conversation has been framed in terms of letters as that directly dictates what scum team we are up against, not how many different players we have with power roles.
 

squidyj

Member
I'm pretty sure he meant the letters over the actual # of PRs. the whole conversation has been framed in terms of letters as that directly dictates what scum team we are up against, not how many different players we have with power roles.

I mean he literally said power roles so even if he meant letter rolls it's a confusing way to phrase it.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Reading over day end yesterday, I could see Crab/Melon/Gorlak.

Haly's reaction to kyan + that large effort post gives them a town lead for me.

squidy's tossed out vote reads sloppy town to me. he's turning down the possibility of being the mason strikes me as the logical move, but i think scum might be tempted to let that float on a bit before responding to it directly. town lean from that too.

kyan is confirmed town to me.

tim is a bit of a blind spot I admit.

i'm mason
 

Kawl_USC

Member
i need to do a read from day 1 with that team in mind and see how it pops.

the show i went to lasted way longer than expected, sorry for not getting to it tonight.

crab's continued silence is pretty deafening, but I'll give him till morning here since i know day start can be a bit oddly timed for the UKians
 

Haly

One day I realized that sadness is just another word for not enough coffee.
MMMCCCT

haly said we have 2 or 0 PR remaining, my assumption was that he meant a 1-shot cop like, say, kyan, for example wasn't being counted.

There's a world where we have 1 PR remaining that Haly brushed over.
Oh, MMMCCCT. When I hashed out the remaining configs, I wrote off MMMCCCT because I thought that a cop would've counterclaimed Kyan D2 if there really was another. That said, I realize now I made a mistake here so mea culpa. 0-2, with my guess on 0.

I emphasize this again Kyan, do not specify what type of cop you are until the final 24 hours and people have had their chance to catch up.
 

Gorlak

Banned
mylo. with kyan being cop (and I operate on that assumption) 50% chance of hitting scum.

Will reread everything and give some more analysis in the hours to come.

Kawl have you got anything to show for it other than your word?
 

Gorlak

Banned
Problem is we know scum had no problem with how d1 played out and time being lynched as well.

The things we can look into is reasoning for/against crab and kyan's gambit against haly.

Will look for individual scummyness (probably crab vs squidyj atm) and possible team behaviour.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Okay: kyan is one-shot cop because I am cop. I have inno Ouro, Czar, Kawl in that order. However, my role necessitates there is a GF, so that doesn't clear anyone. Claiming for kyan to corroborate independently and in case anyone wants to counter-claim.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Fuck, Kawl is uncc'd Mason. I thought it would be Gorlak.
 

Gorlak

Banned
Haly... D1 was on Ouro (115), changed to LP(202), bandwaggoned back to Ouro (536)

Was indecisive D2 after the gambit fallout, voted Crab, wanted to see if Kyan survives and later voted Time after being called out.

So initially Haly's response to the red check on him felt like town. Going through it again, it reads like he 100% knew Kyan could not have come up with a red check on him, hence I leaned town ignoring the possibility of godfather (I have the feeling someone mentioned this scenario, somewhere later) There is also this wavering impression he was certain kyan is town, claiming it's more likely a gambit than anything else.

I tend to not remember anything else from Haly for whatever reason. Looking over his posts, he's taking part and does not hide or anything, it's just that his views aren't memorable?
Now he is making a case for crab and melon, which is compelling. Especially crab completely blending out melon is odd.

I emphasize this again Kyan, do not specify what type of cop you are until the final 24 hours and people have had their chance to catch up.

Why do you emphasize this? Scum already knows if there is another PR or not because of their own roles. Where is the benefit of reaveling later?

If Kyan checked someone, he should come forward. If Kyan has more shots and was blocked, he should not reveal. If Kyan has no more shots, no reveal.

This leads me to another thought if we are in 3T, there is no godfather and I'd probably would lean town on you.

Czar was also on Crab the second half of D1. I don't see anything manufactured about their back and forth, and I feel pretty good about Czartim.

Can you explain your feeling about Czar?

---
While I slightly revert back from my initial town read after the gambit, I don't see strong evidence for scum Haly. If anything we'll know more about the scenario we are in by the point it may become important.

I will not vote Haly today.
 

Gorlak

Banned
Okay: kyan is one-shot cop because I am cop. I have inno Ouro, Czar, Kawl in that order. However, my role necessitates there is a GF, so that doesn't clear anyone. Claiming for kyan to corroborate independently and in case anyone wants to counter-claim.

Why these people in that order? Where have you hinted at your results?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Why these people in that order? Where have you hinted at your results?

Ouro is obvious, he's a very good player and my D1 scumread. Czar is because he is a very good player and I have struggled to get a read on him this entire game - he's the player most in my blindspot. Kawl was the final player I think could be real a threat if scum because nobody had fos'd him the entire game; I also thought either melonn or Gorlak were missing masons so I wanted to stay outside them.

I haven't hinted my results because I realised as of kyan's D2 claim there must be a GF and so innos are not useful. I was really thrown off D2, I nearly cc'd Kyan several times and had to check how set-up maths works.
 

Gorlak

Banned
Melon starts very fluffy and as Haly pointed out she points at crab's inactivity, voting for him until crab votes lp #237.

Then she starts engaging with lp herself #257, notes squidyj vote without explanation, lp prod #321. LP votes melon, defending himself. As I said earlier, I do not understand the case melon made against LP in #403, you could very clearly see he tried to fight it. At Day end she unvotes shortly until crab pushes LP.
lols at kyan for being cop and #698 voices suspicion against haly, discusses with him, votes haly and attacks #740. Generally puts trust into Kyan, willing to follow him. votes timeaisis after giving herself quite some time to think #840

Reacts to my questions and gives a readlist in #873. Feels being critizised by Haly much #883 and claims to have been on haly train d1 #884 - 887, which clearly wasn't the case.

Current reads at #953 match what she voiced earlier.

All in all my impression is she could be scum coaster. She focused on LP D1, tries to engage Haly similarly D2 until that wasn't possibly. Rarely acts on her own (both cases were made from others and she followed up) and only brought up views because I asked her too.

I think my verdict depends on connection to others. Have to go deeper.
 

Gorlak

Banned
Squidyj puts an unusual be cautios everyone be aware warning in #68, with an easy letter mistake as well. cop joke #84. #138 jokingly (?)scum team haly, ouro, crab. #259 kyan vote without any explanation

#306, first substantial post, in which he finds kyan's attitude, time's presence, kawl suspicious as well as takes the stand that lp is not scum.
#474 blames everyone for this hot mess of a d1 and later votes ouro 532, after being called out by him.

more active at day end, staying true to his perception of lp.

#635 asks if vig should come forward

Answers my questions in #749 and gives some insight. Comes to the arguably weird conclusion we should lynch the claimed cop over his red check (supposedly) haly. After Kyan reaveals, squidyj votes him #785 for gambit bullshit. #813 kyan is full of shit. And he retracts his stance after catching some heat in #829

I don't know what to make of his melon callout in #879. It wasn't good of her to write down, but why highlight it even more?

Votes Haly out of the gate today without any explanation. Rightfully points out Haly's logic flaw about how many PRs could be left later. Reveals not being mason before Kawl comes forward #969

Hmm, very hard. Squidyj has the least connections in the game. I can not remember that he even strived the topic of crab once. Likewise I do not remember any word about Czar (if I missed sth. please point out).

Not a good feel about this one at all.

Squidyj, you made it clear that Haly is your top suspect. Who else is likely to be mafia?
 

Gorlak

Banned
Will look over Czar and Crab later, need a break. The lack of a counterclaim and a certain post make me feel confident about Kawl as the mason. Will continue to look for combinations after I'm done with the two remaining.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Crab why did you check Ouro when you thought he was a good (= and thus likely?) scum kill target?

Scum aren't going to bother with a good player if they've attracted flak, they can just be lynched. Same reason I'm alive.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Just logic friend. Although like ive said before in the grand scheme of things odds are heavily in favor of the 3t over the 1T situation.

Does scum!crab fake a red claim today? I posit that if he doesn't he posts exactly what he did today. Something with minimal actual info with town. One dead one already uncounterclaimed mason and one person not under a whole lot of suspicion with heavy emphasis on the existence of the god father.

I remain unconvinced.
 

Kyanrute

Member
Just logic friend. Although like ive said before in the grand scheme of things odds are heavily in favor of the 3t over the 1T situation.

Does scum!crab fake a red claim today? I posit that if he doesn't he posts exactly what he did today. Something with minimal actual info with town. One dead one already uncounterclaimed mason and one person not under a whole lot of suspicion with heavy emphasis on the existence of the god father.

I remain unconvinced.

it was just curious how squid is the 1st one to suggest the CCC and then Crab comes forward with the cop claim. and then there was melon who yesterday who said she thought that crab had a pr and squid was like WUT to melon.

curious.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
it was just curious how squid is the 1st one to suggest the CCC and then Crab comes forward with the cop claim. and then there was melon who yesterday who said she thought that crab had a pr and squid was like WUT to melon.

curious.
Both of the actions by squidy are logical to me there. Hard to find that AI. Melons calling out of a PR seems weird, the logic behind crabs non claim before today as cop is decently sound, but overly convinient to me.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
it was just curious how squid is the 1st one to suggest the CCC and then Crab comes forward with the cop claim. and then there was melon who yesterday who said she thought that crab had a pr and squid was like WUT to melon.

curious.

But you are the other 100% cleared town in my mind. Talk to me, are those three your scum team?
 

Kyanrute

Member
But you are the other 100% cleared town in my mind. Talk to me, are those three your scum team?

Calling them the scum team would require more re-reading, that'll come later when I have the time. So for now they'd be the ones I am willing to vote for. I think you are fine as long as there is no mason counterclaim and even if there was one, they'd need to have a very good reason for holding it. I have nothing against Tim right now and I have a town feel on Gorlak. I lean town with Haly as well.
 

Kyanrute

Member
ok lil speculation time about keeping crab alive

1st i'll ignore the possibility that crab is just a ordinary / other town pr so i guess that will be revealed as the truth eventually

if crab is town scum know this and they would then block me or crab during the night and kill the other. the kill would be on the one that they assume is the superfuckscum-cop with infinite shots. is there a world out there where one of us two does not die?

in CCCMMMT scummies are goon + rb + gf and for us to get to the next night we'd have to get one of them. we get rb, scum have to guess correctly on the sfs-cop. the other two do nothing really as even in the case of gf-rb kills on consecutive days scum would just lynch both the cops during the nights.

soooo if we thinks crab is of great truthiness, even the best case scenario relies on scum guessing wrong (crab is a cop + we kill rb today + scum kill 1-shot cop).
 

Gorlak

Banned
CzarTim is the first one to point out LP's unvote and applies pressure (#169). Gives reads at #203, calls out haly sheep 204. Also continues to ask for opinions from LP.
Points out Time defending lp 273

Asks crab #278, crabs pic #280, talks with kawl, kyan, oreo.

#362 crab should contribute more
#442 votes crab, back and forth, lands his vote at LP at day end

#630 wants to know about mason#2

looks at haly immediatly and finds a supposed connection with crab #703
and reminds us of suspicious haly sheeping him.
later agrees that haly's reaction looks good and votes timeaisis.

Today he gives his state of mind #914 and continues to put forward his opinion about those he was unsure.

At first glance it looks like town, but is there anything scum tim would've done differently? Thus far I struggle to see any valid reason to townread him aside from a gut read. But after all I've got nothing else to go on, so... he didn't act suspicious (apart from 630 maybe), so I won't vote him today.
 

Gorlak

Banned
Why do I find him going after haly not suspicious? maybe because of kyan's post, how he thinks tim's reaction felt townie. I don't know.

---
I agree with Kawl's view, that crab's claim is very convenient and basically doesn't give us anything to work with. Will look into crab next.
 

CzarTim

Member
Okay: kyan is one-shot cop because I am cop. I have inno Ouro, Czar, Kawl in that order. However, my role necessitates there is a GF, so that doesn't clear anyone. Claiming for kyan to corroborate independently and in case anyone wants to counter-claim.

uh, it's day 3 and you have three green checks?
 
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