The case for Crab and Melon
D1:
Here are the deceased's opinions on Crab:
So I was rereading and I saw that Crab posted this:
http://i.imgur.com/8kmoSha.png
Arent Crab and Tim voting LP for basically the same reasons? Why is Crab posting this about Tim who started the LP wagon, who he agrees with?
nah.
Vote: Crab
I'd rather it be Time, but if I have to tie it up, then here I go.
(This one isn't really valid as it was a semi-preservation vote but Ouro did gut-read Time correctly.)
Time explains it better than I can.
VOTE: Crab
That could be why crab has been so quiet lately. He found an easy wagon and posting more would just draw more attention to himself and his reasoning, so he's content to coast after some posts of substance yesterday.
Czar was also on Crab the second half of D1. I don't see anything manufactured about their back and forth, and I feel pretty good about Czartim.
Crab flipflopping on L_P/Ouro. It's clear either one was okay by him. Granted, they were both pretty scummy but he just stands out as being particularly flipfloppy. I preferred the votes that chose one of the two and stuck by it. Flipflopping leaves room for opportunism, and opportunism is scummy.
I want to vote for Oorubulos just to make the point that Ourobulus is a fun thing to type and have to excuses to put in a sentence like so: "Ourubulos", but for the time being I most want answers from Lone_Prodigy.
VOTE: Lone_Prodigy
Going to be p. upset if we don't lynch Ouro at this point. It would basically entrench the idea that to succeed as GAFia scum you just post a lot but make sure there's not much of value.
eh fuck it.
I'm game if you are.
VOTE: Lone_Prodigy
When pressed about flipflopping:
It's not for funsies and I still highly suspect Ouro, but I don't want to enter some sort of Crab-Ouro race, because I'm not interested in getting lynched. If people will take L_P, and I suspect L_P (which I do; he was my first fos before I switched to Ouro because L_P was overdiscussed early on), that's a sensible decision for me.
Here, he would frame it as though it's the sensible decision to start a train for L_P. This is true. But at least I don't think he was at great risk of being lynched. I think Ouro had the momentum, but Crab wanted to be super duper sure. He roped in one supporter with Ouro, which makes two votes immediately, and then called in a third. Who was the third L_P vote? It was melon.
Really? Now we start this?
VOTE: Lone_Prodigy
Even IF the train failed, he removed one vote from himself which is more assurance for his safety. Also, I think L_P was right in retrospect. The last vote out the door was Gorlak on Ourobolos, creating a tie that was decided by a coinflip. Bats would've tipped it for L_P but failed his vote.
Two-horse race? I get the feeling this is town-town and scum are splitting.
D2:
Crab train starts. CzarTim, me and squidyj. This sends him into panic mode that lasts until the end of D2.
Crab analyzes D1:
If we have only one, which is it more likely we have? Well, I think Ourobolus is the more likely target for the mafia kill, by a large margin. He contributed almost no material in the first day, but has a reputation for being a good player. This means that he's dangerous - an unknown quantity with the potential to do a lot of damage. We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone. There were early pushes on Haly and Kawl which didn't go further, and a latter push on Time and then Lone_Prodigy. We know that Ouro was wrong on Lone_Prodigy anyway, and I don't think the first two are really enough for us to look at. So Ouro's death doesn't give us any associations except possibly Time.
...
The above in itself I think gives a final clue, which is: mafia are relatively competent. I think a weaker mafia would have gone for CCS, or failing that someone like CzarTim or myself, aiming to get rid of the Innocent Child or town players with a reasonable track record.
This contradicts with what Time says later.
The last thought I have is on the ouro death. I'm going to assume bats was the scum kill. He stirs up trouble for either side, he has a predictably unpredictable playstyle, and he's a solid n1 kill for mafia. Ouro, on the other hand, is troublesome but only to a few people (myself being one of them). But a good portion of heat was on him yesterday. Mafia might have felt that an ouro lynch was inevitable enough to not waste a night kill on him, unless the situation was dire and they needed ouro eliminated quick.
Why the contradiction? Well, he sets up another defense here:
We can't really say "Ourobolus pushed hard on X, therefore it is reasonable to suppose X killed Ouro to stop this going further" because Ouro didn't push very hard on anyone.
Could be WIFOM but Ouro's votes were for Time (confirmed SK), Gorlak (under suspicion), and Crab (under suspicion)
This is probably the only point I'll give to Crab in this post, and it's even possible he's mason and I've misread this whole thing:
Final thought: mason. I don't think batsnack's partner should come forward yet, given that I suspect we do not have many PRs. There are not enough to keep two innos safe when they make tempting kills. However, I do think they need to pay very careful attention to LYLO. If they claim on LYLO, someone will *definitely* counter-claim, and so we go to 50/50 Thunderdome style shenanigans. But if the missing mason claims the day before LYLO, even if there is a counter-claim, and we lynch incorrectly, we go into LYLO with confirmed scum. So the missing mason needs to pay very careful attention to the number of players remaining and whether next day could be in LYLO or not, and always claim the day before LYLO (which is probably tomorrow, but hey we could hit the SK today)
Crab tries to turn my attention to Time here:
Haly, what do you think about Time given how the day ended?
That question can also be answered by CCS, but Haly first plx.
I quote this again as part of my argument, it reads like scum panic even when there was nothing to be worried about in the first place:
Can't post properly as at work but I am one vote from hammer at this point, so can at least one person unvote until I get back?
Crab throws out some WIFOM for his dancing monkeys:
You forgot 5.: mafia know their own roles, so they know how many Ts town rolled, so they are likely to be able to work out whether a claim is safe or not. It could be mafia know there can't be a cop, and are claiming a cop because it won't be counter-claimed. By bussing scum Haly as a claimed-cop with no counter-claim, Kyan would be given complete and total town confidence, all the way to end-game.
Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.
melon ever so slightly throws in with crab, and I'm not sure how she can call Kawl forgetful this game, he's been consistently contributing since the start:
Karl is quite forgetful in this game and I'm not sure why that is.
I don't immediate find Crab as suspect as everyone else. Do think they are likely a PR.
Only squidy catches this
wut.
You think crab is a town PR and you decide to tell everyone. ok.
So far he's dropped this line of reasoning, why?
So where is this pressure coming from, why on me, and why is it seemingly immune to statements of the obvious like Time/Kyan being today's decision? I thought at first it was ordinary tunnelling - a few people randomly picked me D1, and then people rarely change their minds - once you're pegged as scummy even incorrectly and on D1, people rarely revert to thinking of you as town. Now, however, I'm thinking there is malicious intent.
Shortly I'm going to post my D1 end analysis, but I also want to examine more closely the pressure on me as an extension of that post, because it just isn't sitting right with me.
I'm tired and getting long-winded but this is more or less my evidence against Crab. He tried to play town leader. Town wasn't having it. He's been consistently pressured from day 1 and never in that much danger of being voted out at the end of the day, yet still feels obligated to manipulate events such that we will leave him alone. There's a kind of paranoia there I don't associate with town!Crab, but I've only seen him play once or twice. Maybe I'm overestimating his abilities?
Melon has been keeping her distance. They never step on each others toes, and just lightly brush past each other every day phase. In another game, OW or Bloodborne maybe, I said GAFia has a tendency to tunnel vision on overt connections but ignore "lack" of connections. I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm assured town!melon is an active and robust player, but she has delivered no significant pressure on anyone other than myself, L_P (which we know is wrong), while every-so-often giving Crab her backing.
Observe:
So, anyways, I want to hear from the crab.
VOTE: Crab
I would still like to hear from Crab but also want more from Kyan before everyone - per usual - forgets he is playing until 30 minutes before deadline.
Has crab still not posted?
the crab (finally) speaks.
does it sing also?
Crab, I don't know how to interpret and so I'm blind there.
You forgot 5.: mafia know their own roles, so they know how many Ts town rolled, so they are likely to be able to work out whether a claim is safe or not. It could be mafia know there can't be a cop, and are claiming a cop because it won't be counter-claimed. By bussing scum Haly as a claimed-cop with no counter-claim, Kyan would be given complete and total town confidence, all the way to end-game.
Ballsy as fuck, but I think our scum have played well so far - we have no real leads outside this claim.
No, not necessarily. My scum experience in Mini 1 says other wise. While we had more information than town at the start it was still difficult to determine if PR claims were legit.
I don't immediate find Crab as suspect as everyone else. Do think they are likely a PR.
Take the prior day when everyone was arguing Ouro or LP (or Crab) and he jumps into to vote Kyan without any explanation. I feel that he tends to show up in the middle of conversations but never really starts one or engages in one directly.
Crab, I could make arguments either way. Sometimes he seems the very helpful townie and other times aloof or preoccupied scum.
Seems normal, right? But look at it from Crab's end:
wut
Gorlak's done a lot of work. He's pushed Kawl, relatively untouched by most other players, went after melon's vote on LP, which is like the only LP vote not discussed to death at this point, pushed batsnacks on squidy. He's not given many reads, I agree, and I'd like to see one before day end for obvious reasons, but in terms of getting other players to have to put forward commentary, he's done better than most other players. Genuinely not sure why you'd be looking at Gorlak as a priority.
Melon did, Kawl did, Czar did, Kyan did, and batsnacks tried to. Even worse, they did so after me, and let me take the flak. That's a great thing for scum to hide in. So why is it suddenly Crab, Crab, Crab? How do I pick up 5 votes today in less than a page? That's bullshit. There is a scum vote in there, and increasingly I think it's Haly.
I've tracked Crab enough over my reads and rereads of D1 and D2 and he has given everyone their due... except melon. These are the only hits when you search his posts for "melon". Again, I might be overstimating town!Crab but I find it difficult to believe he went through two tumultous days and all he has regarding melon are these two posts.
(You'll note there's a Gorlak defense there as well.)
Anyway, that was part one. I had a part two where I deliberated over squidyj vs Gorlak as the third member but I'm too exhausted to go over D1 and D2 again with a fine comb. While writing this, I've come to the conclusion that it's very likely Gorlak is the third partner(and bats' gut read was on the mark), and I'm starting to build up squidyj as our missing mason in my mind.
I will, however, be going through batsnacks' history to see if there's a hint of the other mason in there.
I encourage the remaining players to go back through D1 and D2 and form their own conclusions. It's not a ton of material, and most of it is fluff.