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MLB Offseason '13-'14 |OT| Where the best fans live

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
My condolences Harry. You were hoping he made it.

Also Gaf need some help. I have a Milb draft this weekend and I have the 17th pick. From last years amateur draft which late 1st round/2nd round looks like a sleeper?
Bit of a homer pick on my part, but I really like Jason Hursh. Should be a solid #3 as soon as next year. He'll get to play with Simmons behind him and Bethancourt behind the plate which should help elevate his stuff.
 

rando14

Member
Linda Cohn ‏@lindacohn
Just got off phone w Ken Griffey Jr. He apologized sincerely for how he came across in @SportsCenter int. I accepted his apology.

Sounds like all is forgiven and Ken is once again a great American hero
 
Rick Ankiel has officially announced his retirement. Still only age 34, but he said he was getting no interest from anybody and hung it up.
 

BFIB

Member
Cards are exploring an extension with Matt Carpenter. Going to be extremely difficult to match what he did last year, but I like the idea of locking him up for his arbitration years, and maybe some FA years as well.
 
Cards are exploring an extension with Matt Carpenter. Going to be extremely difficult to match what he did last year, but I like the idea of locking him up for his arbitration years, and maybe some FA years as well.
Rumor is 50-55M for one pre arb year, three arb years, and two free agency years.

So if we go by the 40/60/80 rule, it's something like the equivalent of 4 free agency years. 4/55 is roughly 14M/yr or ~2 WAR/yr at market rates. If arb truly underappreciates OBP driven players like Marp and the deal is more on the 3/55 end of the spectrum, it'll be close to ~18M/yr (2.5 WAR/yr).

Sounds good provided he ages well and stays healthy.
 

BFIB

Member
Rumor is 50-55M for one pre arb year, three arb years, and two free agency years.

So if we go by the 40/60/80 rule, it's something like the equivalent of 4 free agency years. 4/55 is roughly 14M/yr or ~2 WAR/yr at market rates. If arb truly underappreciates OBP driven players like Marp and the deal is more on the 3/55 end of the spectrum, it'll be close to ~18M/yr (2.5 WAR/yr).

Sounds good provided he ages well and stays healthy.

There is no way he re-produces what he did last year, but we've seen him now for 2 years, and he's been as good as advertised. I really like the idea of getting some of these players locked up and buying out their arbitration and maybe a few years of FA.

Mo continuing the trend of getting players extended during ST.
 

Fox318

Member
"Smile!"

What

SSA82iI.jpg


"You jealous Griffey"
 
Is it wrong that the reports on Tanaka rolling people over so far has me hyped as fuck?

I know it's Spring Training...but that splitter though.
 
There is no way he re-produces what he did last year, but we've seen him now for 2 years, and he's been as good as advertised. I really like the idea of getting some of these players locked up and buying out their arbitration and maybe a few years of FA.
ZiPs has him projected for 3.4 WAR this coming season. I think he can rattle off a couple of years in the 3-3.5 WAR range which should justify a 6/55M deal.

7 WAR likely isn't happening again but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 4-5 WAR season or two in there somewhere.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
There is no way he re-produces what he did last year, but we've seen him now for 2 years, and he's been as good as advertised. I really like the idea of getting some of these players locked up and buying out their arbitration and maybe a few years of FA.

Mo continuing the trend of getting players extended during ST.
Similar value to the Simmons deal then? Main differences between the two would I guess be that (a) Carp has better offensive expectations, but not in the power department, (b) Carp has better current projections based on last year and his point on the aging curve, and (c) the FA years in Carp's case would be his age 32 and 33 seasons. So their skillets are similarly valued, but Carp should give more performance now in exchange for having his decline years guaranteed.

Not bad value, but I'm not sure it was entirely necessary either.
 

3N16MA

Banned
ZiPs has him projected for 3.4 WAR this coming season. I think he can rattle off a couple of years in the 3-3.5 WAR range which should justify a 6/55M deal.

7 WAR likely isn't happening again but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 4-5 WAR season or two in there somewhere.

Steamer has him at 3.8 and Oliver at 4.8. I'm not going to be surprised if he puts up a 4+ WAR season. Great BB rates, 27% LD rate was 6th best in the majors last season.
 

BFIB

Member
Similar value to the Simmons deal then? Main differences between the two would I guess be that (a) Carp has better offensive expectations, but not in the power department, (b) Carp has better current projections based on last year and his point on the aging curve, and (c) the FA years in Carp's case would be his age 32 and 33 seasons. So their skillets are similarly valued, but Carp should give more performance now in exchange for having his decline years guaranteed.

Not bad value, but I'm not sure it was entirely necessary either.

I don't mind the extension, I think its a solid deal for both sides. Going to have to start paying these guys, so the Cards would be smart to tie up some of them early, and hopefully save some cash in the long run.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I don't mind the extension, I think its a solid deal for both sides. Going to have to start paying these guys, so the Cards would be smart to tie up some of them early, and hopefully save some cash in the long run.
I agree with that in general. I think it's just, with the Braves' extensions the oldest age-season they bought out was Freeman's 5th FA year at age 31. Seeing that, it's made me question how much utility there really is in locking up older players.

Carpenter's extension length is just on the acceptable side for me as he won't be too far into his decline phase. I'm just not sure if they wouldn't be better off letting him walk after his age 31 season, possibly getting a draft pick, and replacing him with someone younger.
 
I agree with that in general. I think it's just, with the Braves' extensions the oldest age-season they bought out was Freeman's 5th FA year at age 31. Seeing that, it's made me question how much utility there really is in locking up older players.

Carpenter's extension length is just on the acceptable side for me as he won't be too far into his decline phase. I'm just not sure if they wouldn't be better off letting him walk after his age 31 season, possibly getting a draft pick, and replacing him with someone younger.
The Cards must think his skillset will age well then. Either way, the extra two years would give them a bit more time to develop a 3Bman in the minors. Right now, the only notable guy in the system is Patrick Wisdom, who has the glove but lacks the contact skill.
 

BFIB

Member
The Cards must think his skillset will age well then. Either way, the extra two years would give them a bit more time to develop a 3Bman in the minors. Right now, the only notable guy in the system is Patrick Wisdom, who has the glove but lacks the contact skill.

In one year, Cards went from zero depth in the SS position, and some depth in the 3B position, to zero depth in the 3B position, and depth in the SS position.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
The Cards must think his skillset will age well then. Either way, the extra two years would give them a bit more time to develop a 3Bman in the minors. Right now, the only notable guy in the system is Patrick Wisdom, who has the glove but lacks the contact skill.
Considering what his particular skills are, they would probably be right in thinking that. I'm more concerned about injury risk however, which starts increasing substantially into the 30's. I'd like to think about it in terms of expected utility. For example:

Player A is projected to be a 5 win player, but has a 60% chance of missing more time than expected. Player B is projected for a 3 win season but only has a 20% chance of being seriously injured.

Player A's expected utility would then be 5*0.4, or 2 wins. Player B's would be 3*0.8, or 2.4 wins.

Those example numbers are extreme, but hopefully highlight my point. I'd rather go with younger payers then older ones, even if the older ones are better players.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
In one year, Cards went from zero depth in the SS position, and some depth in the 3B position, to zero depth in the 3B position, and depth in the SS position.

This is almost always a good move by the way. It's much easier to convert or trade a SS for a 3B than the other way around.
 
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