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Monitoring the situation in Iran

EviLore said:
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I guess if even the newspapers are startin to post this, it is truly coming to the end.

Still there is no force within Iran that is willing to take over. Army is silent, police is silent. It is IRGC alone fighting against the protesters, but nobody else is joining and just observing. I really hope that the former king has contacted various groups within Iran. Otherwise there is no way to get the stable regime after the fall.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
I guess if even the newspapers are startin to post this, it is truly coming to the end.

Still there is no force within Iran that is willing to take over. Army is silent, police is silent. It is IRGC alone fighting against the protesters, but nobody else is joining and just observing. I really hope that the former king has contacted various groups within Iran. Otherwise there is no way to get the stable regime after the fall.
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History has shown returning longtime exiled political leaders rarely if ever result in stable governments

The most recent example of this is Iraq

I remember some people complaining that the US didn't bring back the Nobel Prize winning lady to Venezuela but instead left the existing government in place. This was done for a reason

Iran has much the same problem that Iraq does, after decades of total repression, there's nobody left there who is ready to take power and form a stable government. Nothing exists outside of the governmental structure of the Islamic Republic and the Ayatollah, in much the same way nothing existed outside of the governmental structure of Saddam when he was deposed. The regime government of the Islamic Republic would be best left in place to facilitate a stable transition of power to new leaders, but I don't really think that's likely to occur
 
ZehDon said:
International aid organisations providing food and medical attention are about the best efforts, in my eyes. The Iranian people are enraged about the state of their country, but until a clear organised opposition can step up to a podium with a clear voice, trying to meddle doesn't really help anyone. My 2 cents.
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Lol, what? No, they just prolong regimes and therefore the suffering.

That's the worst form of international meddling.
 
Russia distancing itself from Iran.



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Being a Russia ally really is the kiss of death.

I want to see the people of Iran get their freedom but its not going to be an easy road, lets not kid ourselves after for 47 years of the Islamic Republic there will be plenty of people in Iran that have fill their boots and done unspeakable things to the people of Iran and wont simply give up (or cant give up). They will continue to poison the well for many years to come.
 
Warspite said:
Being a Russia ally really is the kiss of death.
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People throw around the word "ally" too easily. They have a transactional relationship, not an alliance. NK does not help Russia for free. Basically they are a gang against, but not allies.

Ursus Vindicant said:
Am I the only one who feels this is existential to our future? I take it there is nothing we can do to really support at this juncture.
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Existential? No. But it puts an end to one if the remnants of the Cold War era, closing the chapter to that period. Some fragments are still there - Cuba - but still it is a final chapter.
 
"The Hijab is outlawed, it has hidden the hair colour of our wimmins for too long. Now we see they were blue and purple. And we are in the shit Allah!"
 
EviLore said:
Yes. The issue is that there is limited coverage outside of reporting on state propaganda, statements from politicians, or the occasional human rights group. Since the legacy media don't have people on the ground in Iran they tend to ignore the rest.
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Not really true I just watched a piece on Ch4 news on the protests just there and it's one of our biggest news channels here in the UK

Anyways I really do hope the Iranian people reclaim their country and democracy from such a brutal backwards medieval regime but, they need weapons and support and the US and Israel should be bombing the shit out of the IRGC or at least take out the heads
 
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With the changed in tone I might need to reassess my "moving in supplies for defence statement"

It might happen fast as I almost certain a plan of what to hit in Iran was drawn up a long time ago. As its the gulf I take it the states has a carrier in the region?
 
Madonis said:
News from over there is currently looking grim, so they better be ready to do something and fast or else that will mean nothing.





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The main issue is that even after the bombing it won't change much. They really need to decapacitate the government at this point because the protesters are not the army. I hope Pahlavi talked to local leaders or at least had some contacts with some groups. Because oherwise he will become another ElBaradei, who was overthrown in two months. He needs a team of loyalists, army support support and various separate groups support. Otherwise it is all for naugh.

That's why Maduro's capture was done smartly - they did not destroy the institution or the organization because Machado etc. just do not have infrastructure and teams in place to control the government.

In case of Iran, maybe some concessions to kurds or azerbaijani groups should be made - like "autonomous regions" and such.
 
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Unknown Soldier said:
I'm not convinced there should be a US operation yet. If ever there was a moment which was made for Mossad, this is it
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The Mossad is capable of many things, no doubt, but I don't trust the current Israeli leadership for many reasons. In fact, if I were Iranian, I'd rather trust the U.S. in this scenario.

ChuckeRearmed said:
The main issue is that even after the bombing it won't change much. They really need to decapacitate the government at this point because the protesters are not the army. I hope Pahlavi talked to local leaders or at least had some contacts with some groups. Because oherwise he will become another ElBaradei, who was overthrown in two months. He needs a team of loyalists, army support support and various separate groups support. Otherwise it is all for naugh.

That's why Maduro's capture was done smartly - they did not destroy the institution or the organization because Machado etc. just do not have infrastructure and teams in place to control the government.

In case of Iran, maybe some concessions to kurds or azerbaijani groups should be made - like "autonomous regions" and such.
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He's called on the people to take action and there is clearly appreciation and sympathy for the monarchy among the protesters, at least to some degree, but his actual level of influence to determine the course of future events inside Iran seems limited without the military either giving up or at least splitting up into factions. Of course, this is all just in terms of what is publicly known. If there's some sort of secret organized network with connections to local leaders and so on, along the lines of what you have proposed, then so much the better, yet we can't really tell.

The point about Maduro is a fair one, but Iran also has the religious factor as a source of fanatical devotion to the current authorities, whereas Venezuela lacked that sort of motivation. I'd also point out that the Venezuelan military, while full of corrupt and rich individuals, was never perceived to be as strong as the military of Iran. This goes both conventionally speaking (potential for developing nuclear weapons included) and in terms of repressive capability.

Evidently, but that would have to be a discussion for later, since the regime appears to be stumbling yet it has proven quite capable of using lethal force to stop mass protest movements in the past.
 
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Madonis said:
The point about Maduro is a fair one, but Iran also has the religious factor as a source of fanatical devotion to the current authorities, whereas Venezuela lacked that sort of motivation.
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I doubt thatt there is that much devotion at this point. IRGC has never been as fanatical as various groups like Hamas, but they hold a lot of control over the infrastructure.

Madonis said:
Evidently, but that would have to be a discussion for later, since the regime appears to be stumbling yet it has proven quite capable of using lethal force to stop mass protest movements in the past.
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I am also very curious if Iranian regime will fall, but Pahlavi will have to work hard there - even if USA bombs them, it would not mean much. Just chaos.
 
Any good YT live stream links? Or any that dont require a Twitter account or new profile to watch it?

All the YT ones seem like old videos from 10-20 hours ago by the same kinds of accounts.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
At this point if nothing happens during the weekend, the protesters are highly likely to lose. Ayatollah and IRGC will become weaker, but they will survive.
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If the reports are true then as soon as they started killing protesters it had ended. Regular people won't attack with enough numbers to disarm the guards and use their own weapons against them. And if one side is armed and shooting and the other isn't it can only end one way.
 
kruis said:
It turn out that Iranian girl who lit a cigarette with a portrait of the great leader actually lives in Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada.

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That just shows how careful we have to be with viral tweets about this revolt. You read that women all over Iran are now doing exactly the same thing in protest against their theocratic dictatorship and it turns out not to be happening at all.
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I knew that place looked familiar lol.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
Suicidal empathy applies to "killing the west." Iran has been one of the loudest anti-Western forces, while also being an Islamist state. Persians are not anti-Western, nor are they Islamic people. Liberals in general love Islam due to its "collectivism" and "divine state authority" - aka big government as king. And now we see the fall of the Islamic state. It does not look great for the people who supported Hamas, Islam, and anti-Western ideologies to see a prime example of what they want - a centralized Islamist government that hates the West - collapse.

Suicidal empathy does not mean being against killing others. It applies only to things that they hate - they are okay with people dying whom they don't like. It is one of the classic traps that all hypocrites fall into. Except now with the Internet, everybody can see it - especially with their inability to suppress TikTok or X.


Kind of. We saw it with the Biden administration and with what the UK and EU have done (not every country within the EU falls in line, though). Governments across Europe (the UK is the most egregious in that regard) are favoring Islamists and censorship; they are arresting people who post negative things about the government and Muslims online, etc. The reason for that is relatively simple, though - a lot of migrants are coming from impoverished countries, so even if the quality of life in the UK drops, it won't matter; but they are coming from dictatorial states where they are used to big governments oppressing people. It is kind of difficult for the government to support or cover up the case where a state like this falls. BBC has been posting about Hamas being "good guys," and now you are saying the bigger Hamas is falling apart due to people rebelling against the oppressive government. It's like imagining if Palestinians rebelled against Hamas. I wonder what the coverage would be. Probably "Terror groups propped up by Israel are at it again" or something.
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The flooding of the West with immigrants from MENA is simple, to suppress wages and make home ownership impossible. Part of the reason many boomers in my neck of the woods continue to vote for crooked liberal politicians is because as a home owners the value of their property continues to rise. In Canada, there are government programs that promote and even subsidize corporations like Tim Hortons to hire temporary foreign workers. When I was a kid and worked at a bakery 90 percent of the foreign workers from India and Pakistan were hired from an 'agency'. They were paid two dollars less than I was (those two dollars paid directly back to the agency). Places like Walmart are flooded with Indian workers because Indian management has in group preference. This has made many people in the younger generations more conservative and at odds with their parents/grandparents. Canada needs ICE and DOGE, but it is too far left/woke to accept that type of governmental clean up. I envy you Americans, though like us it seems you have an entitled white liberal woman problem.
 
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