Support NeoGAF

[Protein]

Ossoff (GA-D) will probably win if it came this close. People are underestimating how much Republicans have to play hard defense in their home turf.

 

[Shogun413]

All the whining in this thread is pretty pathetic. I mean, this is goddamn Montana. The state where the top things most people care about is being left alone, hunting, and ranching. Maybe if he'd body slammed the dude a week ago it might have made a difference, but even then it was always a long shot.

Exactly. People need to take a step back and look at the actual facts. The emotional response from some people is clouding the reality of a +15 swing to the democratic candidate. Montana is a safe Republican seat and the GOP just spent a fortune to garner a +6 win. I see this as a very encouraging sign. Some people need to realize that you don't need to win every seat to win the house in 2018, all you need is to flip 24 seats! Many of which are much more competitive than this. I do have high hopes for Georgia though.

 

[Opto]

Would You Date a Member of the Opposite Party?


Still hell no

 

[Sweeney Tom]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/868117225613479937

Nate Silver ✔ @NateSilver538
Special elections so far are consistent with an environment that leans Democratic by 14 points (that's a *lot* -- more than 2006 or 2008).

 

[Poltergust]

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Yep, Gianforte would have been Comey'd right out of a win had the CBO score and the bodyslam come out a week or two earlier.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

WE LITERALLY JUST FLIPPED A SEAT IN NH.

That was a state house of representatives seat, one of four hundred NH state representatives. In the 2016 general, a D missed the seat 1,960 to 1,667 (it's a multi-seat district, but if we look at just those two, it was 54%-46%,) in the special, the D won 811 to 755 (52%-48%.) A 6 point swing is nice and Ds should take encouragement from it, but it's such a small sample (even including the NY state assembly seat that also flipped) it's not a reliable indicator of a sea change. The 6 point loss in the MT US House race is a much better indicator.

Don't discount the candidate effect either, the D in this NH race was a lifelong resident and executive director of area non-profit, the R was a lawyer who had recently moved to NH from VA.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

That was a state house of representatives seat, one of four hundred NH state representatives. In the 2016 general, a D missed the seat 1,960 to 1,667 (it's a multi-seat district, but if we look at just those two, it was 54%-46%,) in the special, the D won 811 to 755 (52%-48%.) A 6 point swing is nice and Ds should take encouragement from it, but it's such a small sample (even including the NY state assembly seat that also flipped) it's not a reliable indicator of a sea change. The 6 point loss in the MT US House race is a much better indicator.

Don't discount the candidate effect either, the D in this NH race was a lifelong resident and executive director of area non-profit, the R was a lawyer who had recently moved to NH from VA.

Wasn't that also a seat that was at least won for the first time in history for a Dem? How old is that seat?

 

[Bladelaw]

Wasn't that also a seat that was at least won for the first time in history for a Dem? How old is that seat?

1913 I think the local papers were saying. so 104 years

edit: Wolfeboro Town Clerk Patricia Waterman said DesMarais was the first Democrat elected to the New Hampshire House from that town since 1913.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Wasn't that also a seat that was at least won for the first time in history for a Dem? How old is that seat?

I'm not able to find a Carroll County District 6 in election results prior to 2012. Looks like Wolfeboro was solidly R when it was still part of Carroll County District 4.

 

[Spladam]

Trump, unsolicited, weighs in: Trump on Gianforte: A ‘Great Win for Montana. Wink wink, no subtext there.

 

[Kin5290]

People holding up the results as a positive are ridiculous. He handily won even while facing fucking assault charges and after the supposedly apocalyptic CBO healthcare score. Both of these factors together and fresh in the news cycle barely moved the needle, we cant count on a wave to carry us in 2018.

He won +6 in a state Trump won +20. That's a +14 swing. A +14 swing would mean Democrats picking up 40 plus seats in the House come 2018, and they only need 24 to retake control.

 

[Feep]

Like... where? When? AFAIK, this wasn't all that close before the incident, and early voting was easy and occurred weeks ago. When, why and how were they supposed to spend any significant amount in the last 24 hours?

He meant, like, months ago. Wanted the DCCC to drop millions.

 

[Kusagari]

He won +6 in a state Trump won +20. That's a +14 swing. A +14 swing would mean Democrats picking up 40 plus seats in the House come 2018, and they only need 24 to retake control.

Zinke won +15 that very same election. We need to stop just putting Trump's numbers on house seats.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

People holding up the results as a positive are ridiculous. He handily won even while facing fucking assault charges and after the supposedly apocalyptic CBO healthcare score. Both of these factors together and fresh in the news cycle barely moved the needle, we cant count on a wave to carry us in 2018.

+6 is not "handily" winning anything, especially since it's a more than 50% drop from the last time this seat was up. And they had to dump tons of money and resources just to barely eek out a win in an extremely safe R district.

Again, for the 30948238429387492374982 time this thread, the CBO report and his assault happened after like half the state already voted.

 

[The Adder]

Zinke won +15 that very same election. We need to stop just putting Trump's numbers on house seats.

Mid-Terms are run against the President's party.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/868117225613479937

Nate Silver ✔ @NateSilver538
Special elections so far are consistent with an environment that leans Democratic by 14 points (that's a *lot* -- more than 2006 or 2008).

Interesting.