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[The Adder]

This just makes me more pissed at the Dems. The party needs to adopt a 50-state strategy and stop focusing only on national elections.

...

Sigh

The group that sends money to Dems running for House seats is not the group that sends money to Dems running for Senate seats is not the group that sends money to Dems running for State Legislature is not the DNC who handles, exclusively, the Presidency.

 

[Lord Frieza]

...

Sigh

The group that sends money to Dems running for House seats is not the group that sends money to Dems running for Senate seats is not the group that sends money to Dems running for State Legislature is not the DNC who handles, exclusively, the Presidency.

House one is DCC, right?

 

[Brinbe]

Not surprising that Gianforte won, especially considering the incident was pretty close voting day, so he had a comfortable lead banked. But even if he lost, it doesn't change my opinion that government/America is broken.

A continually divided populace cannot succeed when half the electorate acts like moronic children at best and evil and malicious racists at worst. Dems may very well win in 2018/2020, but dragging along a good 30-40% of the opposition kicking and screaming is no way to successfully govern a nation.

The culture of proud and poisonous stupidity will be your downfall.

 

[CertifiedFP]

America you suck at voting lately

Results like this are the inevitable, unavoidable product of Mob Rule.

 

[KHarvey16]

Yes, I am aware I don't live in the future



I 100% understand the reasoning here, and I hope they translate to wins when those times come for sure. I'm just saying, if it just continues to translate to slim wins, it's still their win. Good for the future, but tomorrow needs to come today

This is why your "a loss is a loss, a win is a win" mindset is completely wrong. A small loss in a deep red district isn't just a loss. You're ignoring context and ignoring what people are trying to explain to you. None of these democratic losses came in races that they had any reasonable expectation of winning. This means more competitive races have a good chance of going their way. This result does nothing but support that, so acting like it's a contradiction to that narrative or some unexpected hiccup is plain wrong.

 

[Xe4]

Jesus. Assault a reporter and get elected to Congress. Fuck this country.

Glad it was closet than usual but fucking still. Any "Christian" that voted for this fuck today aren't Christian at all.

 

[soldat7]

Yikes. Wanna see the scary face of hatred, bigotry, and xenophobia in plaid? Start watching at about 7:05 (the whole video is great, though).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ntana-election-greg-gianforte-rob-quist-trump

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

So, I take it Montana did not go blue.

 

[The Adder]

House one is DCC, right?

DCCC, but yes.

 

[Shard]

Jesus. Assault a reporter and get elected to Congress. Fuck this country.

Glad it was closet than usual but fucking still. Any "Christian" that voted for this fuck today aren't Christian at all.

That is kind of the great question, 2/3 of people didn't vote today.

 

[Lord Frieza]

This is why your "a loss is a loss, a win is a win" mindset is completely wrong. A small loss in a deep red district isn't just a loss. You're ignoring context and ignoring what people are trying to explain to you. None of these democratic losses came in races that they had any reasonable expectation of winning. This means more competitive races have a good chance of going their way. This result does nothing but support that, so acting like it's a contradiction to that narrative or some unexpected hiccup is plain wrong.

I'm not ignoring anything, I actually just think you're taking what I'm saying in the wrong way, which is probably my fault

 

[mozfan12]

Look, I understand we are looking for victories in these torturous times in any form or manner. The margins of defeat actually matters in these race. Regardless of Quist winning or losing the race, it would have not moved the needle at all, in many ways it would have only been a symbolic win. 2018 is the real battle, and if for any reason you feel hurt, dissapionted by this loss, know that you can still contribute. Hell, even California has house races where it is critical to knock on doors, call, donate and volunteer.

 

[The Adder]

So here's the million dollar question:

If he's up for it, should Montana Dems run Quist again next year? Or should they find someone else?

 

[Lord Frieza]

So here's the million dollar question:

If he's up for it, should Montana Dems run Quist again next year? Or should they find someone else?

After this, I don't see it mattering honestly. I don't see a Dem getting this seat for a long time. I mean, hell, even before the body slam thing dude was exposed as having Russian business ties and has some of the most batshit insane ideas about retirement and life in general.

 

[Autodidact]

Look, I understand we are looking for victories in these torturous times in any form or manner. The margins of defeat actually matters in these race. Regardless of Quist winning or losing the race, it would have not moved the needle at all, in many ways it would have only been a symbolic win. 2018 is the real battle, and if for any reason you feel hurt, dissapionted by this loss, know that you can still contribute. Hell, even California has house races where it is critical to knock on doors, call, donate and volunteer.

Perfect example of why people shouldn't fret (yet). If we've narrowed the margins to 5-10 points in deep-red districts, we've set ourselves up to sweep a lot of marginal Republican seats. Darrell Issa got in just by the skin of his teeth in a district that swung hard for Hillary. If he had to face a special election today, he'd lose by the margin with which Gianforte won in Montana, as would dozens of Republicans in close districts. We can be cautiously optimistic for now.

 

[RC0101]

So here's the million dollar question:

If he's up for it, should Montana Dems run Quist again next year? Or should they find someone else?

Being from Montana I don't think it would be a good idea to run again. The problem is I'm not aware of any real qualified Democrats waiting in the wings.

 

[The Adder]

After this, I don't see it mattering honestly. I don't see a Dem getting this seat for a long time. I mean, hell, even before the body slam thing dude was exposed as having Russian business ties and has some of the most batshit insane ideas about retirement and life in general.

He's winning by less than the last guy did. That's a drift towards Dems, not away.

 

[Blablurn]

Yikes. Wanna see the scary face of hatred, bigotry, and xenophobia in plaid? Start watching at about 7:05 (the whole video is great, though).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ntana-election-greg-gianforte-rob-quist-trump

The dude at the rally who said "you don't look British" was the low point. holy shit. Straight racism into his face.

 

[Arttemis]

Yikes. Wanna see the scary face of hatred, bigotry, and xenophobia in plaid? Start watching at about 7:05 (the whole video is great, though).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ntana-election-greg-gianforte-rob-quist-trump

Fucking hell.

 

[UraMallas]

That's not really true. According to 538:

"According to the weighted average of the past two presidential elections, there are 48 House districts that were won by GOP candidates in 2016 that are bluer than Georgia 6. The district’s Round 1 results suggest Republicans could lose a good portion of those 48 seats. And Democrats need to win just 24 Republican-held seats for control of the House."

Using Hillary's performance as an indicator is a bad idea because she overpwrformed there by quite a bit.

Georgia 6 shouldn't be close, and if it is, Republicans are in trouble.

I agree that they need to be sweating if it is close, regardless, but this is not a typical election. It has a microscope on it. It has way more money pumped into it then you'll see on average come 2018 as well. The public will be looking hard at this one and a win goes a lot further than a narrow moral victory loss. It is absolutely important to win GA06 for reasons outside of the typical. Will a close loss mean dems should freak out? Not at all. As you have pointed out it shows the House is very much in play. Will a win give dems a much larger momentum boost by being a tangible win on an abnormally large stage for this district? Yes. It will make work that much easier going forward. It is undeniable that it would be a huge feather in the cap and will help shape the convo for the rest of the year.

 

[SpaceCadetKeon]

Hopefully the outrage resulting from Gianforte being elected despite the assault motivates more people to turn out for Democrats in other elections rather than lose hope entirely.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

So here's the million dollar question:

If he's up for it, should Montana Dems run Quist again next year? Or should they find someone else?

Steve Bullock won the MT governorship by crushing the cities and suburbs and holding on in rural areas. Quist's dropped off hugely in the suburbs and that's the biggest reason he lost. Unless he can come up with a way of pulling those voters back in you have to run someone else in '18.

 

[ShironRedshift]

So here's the million dollar question:

If he's up for it, should Montana Dems run Quist again next year? Or should they find someone else?

New, definitely. Running has-beens seems to be a risky proposition. If it doesn't work the first time, don't see what would be different next time. Even if he somehow manages to win, Quist will still be damaged goods in the process of all this and very unlikely to win reelection. It's one of the things that Democrats definitely need to learn from stories such as Clinton's loss: always run fresh faces whenever possible, instead of trying to force has-been bad candidates to happen against all odds. Unfortunately, it seems once someone's branded a loser, that's a stink that's difficult to shake, regardless of how fair or unfair that might be.

Of course, a new candidate might (and in this case, most likely still will) lose but it will nonetheless provide us with more data about what does and does not seem to work in the state at the moment, where as running Quist against probably won't give us much more useful information than it already has. So I'm all on #TeamNew.

 

[Arttemis]

Hopefully the outrage resulting from Gianforte being elected despite the assault motivates more people to turn out for Democrats in other elections rather than lose hope entirely.

Despite the assault, despite the quarter of a million dollars in Russian index funds that are US-sanctioned, despite thinking we shouldn't have a retirement age because Noah worked until the age 600 and didn't complain.

 

[gutter_trash]

Despite the assault, despite the quarter of a million dollars in Russian index funds that are US-sanctioned, despite thinking we shouldn't have a retirement age because Noah worked until the age 600 and didn't complain.

hopeless is the adjective that best describes these R voters

 

[The Adder]

Despite the assault, despite the quarter of a million dollars in Russian index funds that are US-sanctioned, despite thinking we shouldn't have a retirement age because Noah worked until the age 600 and didn't complain.

People care about the assault, but it was too late to make a difference.

Nobody cares about Russian finances until something solid sticks to Trump. They'd care about Russian meetings, but explaining US sanctions and index funds to most people is just going to go in one ear and out the other.

And batshit statements like that are likely why he did so relatively poorly.

 

[Sobriquet]

Being from Montana I don't think it would be a good idea to run again. The problem is I'm not aware of any real qualified Democrats waiting in the wings.

To be fair, Quist wasn't exactly qualified.

 

[soldat7]

To be fair, Quist wasn't exactly qualified.

No longer a requirement for US political positions. You do have to be qualified to be President, however.

 

[Mr. RPG]

What was wrong with Quist?

This was the closest election for this seat in over 10 years, I think.

 

[RC0101]

To be fair, Quist wasn't exactly qualified.

Exactly. A more "qualified" candidate maybe loses by 5 points? I just don't think the Democrats have anyone that will get enough votes for a win. Maybe in 18 Gianforte will be even more disliked than he is and maybe the Democrats will find someone that voters can get excited about but that's a lot of maybes.

 

[RC0101]

What was wrong with Quist?

This was the closest election for this seat in over 10 years, I think.

One problem was him not having a fishing or hunting license for like 15 years which really shouldn't matter but the issue with public lands is HUGE here so that hurt him. He came in as politically unknown as well as had tax issues in the past I guess?

 

[SolarPowered]

This just makes me more pissed at the Dems. The party needs to adopt a 50-state strategy and stop focusing only on national elections.

Good job dnc

It sucks, but apparently getting the DNC too involved in these hard red races can be a very dangerous move because it galvanizes the Republicans living there. It's a bit of a lose-lose scenario unless the republican candidate is the pits, the democrat candidate is exceptional or the president is hurting republican performance across the board. This time around locked early voting screwed over Montanans(?) that might have switched their vote over slamgate and Quist was not a particularly exceptional fundraiser or campaigner. It is what it is. I wish it weren't, but we'll probably have to wait until Georgia to see what an exceptional Democrat candidate can do in a red state that is not embracing the republican party or Trump's shenanigans with glee.

 

[MrGerbils]

"Guys, we didn't lose as bad as we thought we would!" seems to be the Democrat's motto.

 

[The Adder]

"Guys, we didn't lose as bad as we thought we would!" seems to be the Democrat's motto.

"Why the fuck didn't you win this seat that you didn't have any realistic chance of winning" seems to be the refrain of the uninformed.

 

[Yazzees]

Yikes. Wanna see the scary face of hatred, bigotry, and xenophobia in plaid? Start watching at about 7:05 (the whole video is great, though).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ntana-election-greg-gianforte-rob-quist-trump

...Man what the fuck was that at 7:35

EDIT: Legit reminds me of the Louis Theroux documentary where he interviews white nationalists/neo-nazis/etc. The tone and facial expression that a neo-nazi couple took when "casually" questioning whether he was of Jewish descent was eerily familiar to how the guy at the timestamp I mentioned sounded in that video.

 

[Mrbob]

"Why the fuck didn't you win this seat that you didn't have any realistic chance of winning" seems to be the refrain of the uninformed.

Agreed.

Bad candidate and little chance of winning equals anger at loss in relatively close race. Makes sense. I don't get the angry hot takes based on the situation of this election.

 

[A Serious Man]

...Man what the fuck was that at 7:35

EDIT: Legit reminds me of the Louis Theroux documentary where he interviews white nationalists/neo-nazis/etc. The tone and facial expression that a neo-nazi couple took when "casually" questioning whether he was of Jewish descent was eerily familiar to how the guy at the timestamp I mentioned sounded in that video.

A large chunk of this country is evil. No one wants to address it but it's a serious problem and the GOP realizing that they can pander to that group for political gain is going to be incredibly destructive.

 

[Machina]

I wouldn't be too mad about this loss. Not a big victory and chance of Democratic victory was small. I think it goes to show 2018 and beyond will be tough for Republicans.

Ummm, a dude that assaulted a reporter just won re-election. I don't think the margin really makes that any less disgusting and fucked up. America is seriously in a moral cesspool

 

[Lys Skygge]

I'm disappointed in my home state.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

I feel kinda sick that I called this accurately.

Congrats Montana, you're a Southern State at heart

 

[Mortemis]

So will this be within single digits at the end?

Starting to get cautiously optimistic about 2018.

 

[MarionCB]

Fair enough. If Montana wants to choose this representative, then they can live with this being how they are represented. I'm not even talking about the assault.

It's still a good sign for 2018.

 

[davepoobond]

This just makes me more pissed at the Dems. The party needs to adopt a 50-state strategy and stop focusing only on national elections.

i dont think itll matter. republicans can just beat up reporters now and insta-win.

 

[SolarPowered]

So will this be within single digits at the end?

Starting to get cautiously optimistic about 2018.

Yes

Glacier and Missoula were particularly strong counties for Hillary. Glacier hasn't even reported at all yet and it might be the only county that Quist could get 65+ percent in. In the end I think he might only lose by 6% or so. I wish it were closer, though.

Edit: Damn, I thought Glacier county would be more populous. It probably won't move the needle nearly as much as I'd hoped.

 

[The Adder]

So will this be within single digits at the end?

Starting to get cautiously optimistic about 2018.

96% of precincts reporting with Quist down by 7.4 and Glacier county (which voted Hillary) still unaccounted for?

Yeah. Definitely.

EDIT:

Also, counties Quist won that Hillary lost:

Blaine County, Lewis and Clark County, Hill County, Park County, Roosevelt County.

 

[Keikaku]

Looking at the breakdown of the results by county, I don't know why you wouldn't look at this election as a positive result. Quist as a candidate had quite a few issues but took what should have been an extremely foregone conclusion of a race and outperformed Hillary handily which meant that Gianforte ended up underperforming Trump pretty badly too.

Elections for Congress are not a dead certainty and any change isn't going to hit every place everywhere. Certain parts of the populace, especially in this sort of political climate, just won't behave in a rational manner all the time. However between the news about Pellegrino and the news about DesMarais in New Hampshire, it does look like the Democrats are doing as well as they can and are taking advantage of anti-Trump/anti-Republican sentiment.

Races like this or Georgia were longshots from the beginning so just keep things in perspective.

 

[FyreWulff]

county maps don't mean much when you can win the vote of six out of eight people yet "win" the land equivalent of some eastern seaboard states

 

[The Adder]

Gap is now 6.5%

county maps don't mean much when you can win the vote of six out of eight people yet "win" the land equivalent of some eastern seaboard states

County maps matter in the sense that it gives you an idea of the tone in those counties. 2018's Montana House seat campaign now knows those are soft spots in HHH's defense.

 

[AYF 001]

All I can say is I hope the people who voted for him get a serious case of buyer's remorse for next year, and will think twice about blindly voting for their team.

 

[Permanently A]

All I can say is I hope the people who voted for him get a serious case of buyer's remorse for next year, and will think twice about blindly voting for their team.

Neither of those things will happen, but its nice to think happy thoughts.