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MS's biggest problem facing next-gen...

I believe that they hit it out of the park in regards to hardware, but the problem lies with software. Not the lack of it, but the lack of overall quality (graphically). This doesn't have to do with devs being lazy, I think it has more to do with publishers doing what they do best, not taking huge risks. As of right now the worst looking games are from the biggest publishers, that does not bode well for the system. Activision and EA are not looking at the system as the start of the next-gen, maybe in a hardware perspective, but not in overall gaming marketshare shift. PS3 will do that as it brings the millions of PS2 owner next-gen. As a result they're tossing the system token ports, which isn't going to convince casual gamers of it's power.

The problem with launching first and not being the market leader is that you don't have the market clout to be the catalyst totally new gaming engines (accross the entire gaming community, not just select developers). It's the DC effect all over again, and it's going to be a major hurdle for MS. Look at the PS2's first year, how many of those games were simple ports of PS1 titles? VERY few, devs knew this was the start of the next-gen and made totally new engines to take advantage of it. MS for the most part does not have that kind of luxury in the first year, and without BC I'm thinking that the advantage of being the first mover is going to be minimal at best.
 
MS's biggest problem facing next-gen...

Playstation3fullsize2.jpg
 
Pedigree Chum said:
I believe that they hit it out of the park in regards to hardware, but the problem lies with software. Not the lack of it, but the lack of overall quality (graphically). This doesn't have to do with devs being lazy, I think it has more to do with publishers doing what they do best, not taking huge risks. As of right now the worst looking games are from the biggest publishers, that does not bode well for the system. Activision and EA are not looking at the system as the start of the next-gen, maybe in a hardware perspective, but not in overall gaming marketshare shift. PS3 will do that as it brings the millions of PS2 owner next-gen. As a result they're tossing the system token ports, which isn't going to convince casual gamers of it's power. That's the problem with launching first and not being the market leader, you don't have the market clout to catalyst totally new gaming engines (accross the entire gaming community, not just select developers). It's the DC effect all over again, and it's going to be a major hurdle for MS. Look at the PS2's first year, how many of those games were simple ports of PS1 titles? VERY few, devs knew this was the start of the next-gen and made totally new engines to take advantage of it. MS for the most part does not have that kind of luxury in the first year, and without BC I'm thinking that the advantage of being the first mover is going to be minimal at best.

After seeing DOA4 and PD0, I can say I gelt the same, depressed about the system. Then I saw the videos at MTV and alot of faith was restored. I'm thinking that MS will have really good looking, high quality games to show off at E3. Hell they have to. They're not stupid, they must realize that PD0 looks like a DC game.
 
Actually, I'd say EA's games look pretty decent so far. You're right though, the disparity in visuals for the 360 launch highlight is a total clusterfuck. Shit, even Dreamcast had a more impressive unveiling.
 
sonycowboy said:
:lol :lol

Perhaps, but the ballpark is going to a WHOLE lot bigger next year.

I'm going by specs, they're very nice for a next-gen console. The games for the most part don't reflect that. Why? Read my first post.
 
Pedigree Chum said:
I believe that they hit it out of the park in regards to hardware, but the problem lies with software. Not the lack of it, but the lack of overall quality (graphically). This doesn't have to do with devs being lazy, I think it has more to do with publishers doing what they do best, not taking huge risks. As of right now the worst looking games are from the biggest publishers, that does not bode well for the system. Activision and EA are not looking at the system as the start of the next-gen, maybe in a hardware perspective, but not in overall gaming marketshare shift. PS3 will do that as it brings the millions of PS2 owner next-gen. As a result they're tossing the system token ports, which isn't going to convince casual gamers of it's power. That's the problem with launching first and not being the market leader, you're system is not seen as the platform to make totally new gaming engines. It's the DC effect all over again, and it's going to be a major hurdle for MS. Look at the PS2's first year, how many of those games were simple ports of PS1 titles? VERY few, devs knew this was the start of the next-gen and made totally new engines to take advantage of it. MS does not have that kind of luxury, and without BC I'm thinking that the first mover advantage is going to be minimal at best.

I think Microsoft will be fine. We'll know more about their situation after next weekend. I think as it stands they've BOTCHED the intial unveiling. Poor poor decisions all around. I'm not worried much about the graphics on games, I think developers are scrambling to get these games up to par having only recently received finalized devkits. The hardware sure as hell is there.

I just wish they'd be a little more forthcoming about how far along some of these games are. There's no escaping how horrible Rare's showing has been, but they've got a small window of time to improve their games tremendously. I don't know how long 360 development on Zero has been, but perhaps they're just focusing on transfering (this was supposed to be an Xbox game at first right?) the physics/gameplay aspect of Zero first, with some hardcore graphics updating over the next few months?

Gears of War, PGR3, Ghost Recon 3, and NBA2k6 are more or less what I was expecting for 1st-gen 360 games, to a T.
 
The poor third party support is all the more reason why MS needed to make their own killer app for the system launch, and all more reason that everyone at Rare needs to be fired.
 
There is also another huge problem.

-32 bits gen: basic 3D, textures, some lightning

-current gen: high poly counts, post-process effects, some per pixel lightning, some advanced effects like BM and normal mapping, physics

-next gen: ...

It is not even pushing the hardware, which is still largely important, an invaluable part of the visual impact will be determined by how talented are the companies' art teams. And let me add that things are not looking bright for MS at this moment.
 
Sathsquatch said:
The poor third party support is all the more reason why MS needed to make their own killer app for the system launch, and all more reason that everyone at Rare needs to be fired.


err. what are you judging the poor 3rd party support comment on?
 
Pedigree Chum said:
I believe that they hit it out of the park in regards to hardware, but the problem lies with software. Not the lack of it, but the lack of overall quality (graphically). This doesn't have to do with devs being lazy, I think it has more to do with publishers doing what they do best, not taking huge risks. As of right now the worst looking games are from the biggest publishers, that does not bode well for the system. Activision and EA are not looking at the system as the start of the next-gen, maybe in a hardware perspective, but not in overall gaming marketshare shift. PS3 will do that as it brings the millions of PS2 owner next-gen. As a result they're tossing the system token ports, which isn't going to convince casual gamers of it's power.

The problem with launching first and not being the market leader is that you don't have the market clout to be the catalyst totally new gaming engines (accross the entire gaming community, not just select developers). It's the DC effect all over again, and it's going to be a major hurdle for MS. Look at the PS2's first year, how many of those games were simple ports of PS1 titles? VERY few, devs knew this was the start of the next-gen and made totally new engines to take advantage of it. MS for the most part does not have that kind of luxury in the first year, and without BC I'm thinking that the advantage of being the first mover is going to be minimal at best.
ROTF at anyone who mentions DC when discussing xbox 360.

Get a grip.
 
I'm waiting to see what happens during E3 before commenting much more. Ironically, because of the suboptimal MTV reveal I'm now more fully looking forward to Xbox 360 related announcements and media at E3 than I expected to be.
 
chinch said:
ROTF at anyone who mentions DC when discussing xbox 360.

Get a grip.

Did I say X360 = DC? I just used it in an example of how first mover when you're not the market leader hurts. It's not going to fail like DC, MS has way better mindshare. But I'm talking for an overall publisher standpoint, which isn't very good, better than DC at the time, but not by a whole lot (when you factor in all devs around the world, not just Western ones).
 
Pedigree Chum said:
Look at the PS2's first year, how many of those games were simple ports of PS1 titles? VERY few, devs knew this was the start of the next-gen and made totally new engines to take advantage of it.

What? The first six months or so of the PS2 was downright miserable for games, yet the system still sold like chocolate cake at fat camp. The 360 has earned a little blind faith thanks to the Xbox, just like the PS2 did thanks to the PS1.
 
Sathsquatch said:
The poor third party support is all the more reason why MS needed to make their own killer app for the system launch, and all more reason that everyone at Rare needs to be fired.

What support exactly are talking about???? You mean the one that hasn't been fully disclosed yet? Jesus...
 
Sathsquatch said:
The poor third party support is all the more reason why MS needed to make their own killer app for the system launch, and all more reason that everyone at Rare needs to be fired.
I get the feeling PD0 just got bumped back to fall 2006... Kameo's likely to be the only launch window title from Rare now I bet.


chinch said:
ROTF at anyone who mentions DC when discussing xbox 360.

Get a grip.
IU dunno, I used to constantly argue against any Dreamcast associations... but now the Dreamcast unveiling is fantastic compared to 360. Microsoft really fucked this up, their going to be on the defensive from now until who knows when. :/
 
WordofGod said:
It looks like a HP or Dell PC.

comput6.jpg
oh damn, I heard someone say it looked like a Dell model, but never saw the pic itself.

As far as inpiration goes, we know that:
MS Hardware Design Team uses Dell computers
Rare likes to play Halo
 
VALIS said:
What? The first six months or so of the PS2 was downright miserable for games, yet the system still sold like chocolate cake at fat camp. The 360 has earned a little
blind faith thanks to the Xbox, just like the PS2 did thanks to the PS1.

True, but devs were putting effort into deving for it instead of going port happy. That's a pretty big distinction, the hardware was at blame, not the devs so much. In X360's case it's the opposite.
 
Pedigree Chum said:
Did I say X360 = DC? I just used it in an example of how first mover when you're not the market leader hurts. It's not going to fail like DC, MS has way better mindshare. But I'm talking for an overall publisher standpoint, which isn't very good, better than DC at the time, but not by a whole lot (when you factor in all devs around the world, not just Western ones).
and mentioning them in the same sentance was stupid.

i didn't realize you had a year 1 list of worldwide games for 360... please share with the rest of us asap.
 
chinch said:
and mentioning them in the same sentance was stupid.

i didn't realize you had a year 1 list of worldwide games for 360... please share with the rest of us asap.

Going by what we've seen, and the fact that there's 80m PS2 owners out there, do you really think that devs are going to put multi-mil budgets (to get the most out of the system) on X360 games with very little userbase? Just think about that from a ultra conservative mega publishers POV.
 
Pedigree Chum said:
Going by what we've seen, and the fact that there's 80m PS2 owners out there, do you really think that devs are going to put multi-mil budgets (to get the most out of the system) on X360 games with very little userbase? Just think about that from a ultra conservative mega publishers POV.
so what happens when sony devs do?
 
Pedigree Chum said:
Going by what we've seen, and the fact that there's 80m PS2 owners out there, do you really think that devs are going to put multi-mil budgets (to get the most out of the system) on X360 games with very little userbase? Just think about that from a ultra conservative mega publishers POV.

nice spin.

don't buy a 360... no one cares.
 
While there are a lot of people who will say different, I still think part of the next-gen problem is that while these consoles are going to be hugely more powerful than what we have today, a lot of in-game, playable angles aren't going to look drastically better in the same way they did from PSX to PS2.

Madden, for example, looks nice and high-res, and even from a playable angle it (and players will look better), but while technically 3 million things may be happening "better" than they would be on current consoles, to the eye, it's not going to look like the same jump as this, IMO:

madden2000_screen001.jpg


madden2001_b3_screen003.jpg


(crappy gamespot capture aside)

EDIT: I should note that the next-gen power hike will clearly make a bigger difference for some games, i.e: the GTAs that chug along this gen and those sorts of things. A better in-game world is on the way :)
 
So from now on (from yesterday infact) to the very PS3 launch (somewhere down 2006) this board will be a theather of war for MS vs rest of the world?

That would be so... boring.

I figured out the whole schema already:

Xbox haters will always hate no matter what MS will achieve.
Xbox lovers will always love no matter what MS will screw-up.
 
Crap MS show.

Xbox doomed.

Disaster.

The Apocolypse is upon us.

Oh wait that was 5 years ago. :rolleyes

The biggest problem and I'm afraid this is going to be the same for any developer (even worse for PS3) is that the time it takes to create a game that maxes out the hardware, filling in all that details for a super realistic world ect, most devs would have probably gone bankrupt. Smartest move MS made was to licence the unreal 3 tech - the likes of Epic, Renderware (well EA at least), ID with their ready made engines will be laughing all the way to the bank.
 
WordofGod said:
comput6.jpg


That looks very similar to Xbox360, no?

microbox.jpg


That looks very similiar to a PS2, no?

Point I'm trying to make is that most ideas are already taken. Inspiration comes from many places...To me it doesn't look like a Dell computer at all except that it stands on its side.
 
COCKLES said:
Crap MS show.

Xbox doomed.

Disaster.

The Apocolypse is upon us.

Oh wait that was 5 years ago. :rolleyes

The biggest problem and I'm afraid this is going to be the same for any developer (even worse for PS3) is that the time it takes to create a game that maxes out the hardware, filling in all that details for a super realistic world ect, most devs would have probably gone bankrupt. Smartest move MS made was to licence the unreal 3 tech - the likes of Epic, Renderware (well EA at least), ID with their ready made engines will be laughing all the way to the bank.

This is true, if MS and 3rd parties can really take advantage of UE3.0 and release amazing looking games in a timely manner (in first year X360), it'll make my point above moot. It's all about consistency, games accross the board need to look like GOW, not just the token few. Even though my first post sounds like doom and gloom, I still have high hopes for the system. MS just needs to work harder to convince devs that it's worth investing tons of money into the system, the rest will fall into place.
 
Pedigree Chum said:
Going by what we've seen, and the fact that there's 80m PS2 owners out there, do you really think that devs are going to put multi-mil budgets (to get the most out of the system) on X360 games with very little userbase? Just think about that from a ultra conservative mega publishers POV.
It'll be the next-gen system with the biggest userbase for at least a year (at first because it's the only one on the market, then for a bit after PS3 launches because Sony will take a number of months to make up for what 360 sold with it's head start). If a company is looking to release a game in that time frame and are faced with exclusivity contracts from both sides, 360 would actually be the better choice because more owners = more potential sales. And if exclusivity's not on the table, they'll likely attempt to port to both systems for maximum profits.
 
I'm sure there eventually will be some amazing graphically made games for XBox360...but so far I'm not really impressed. My number 1 most anticipated game for the system (Perfect Dark Zero) looks like a Dreamcast game. I really hope Rare end up delivering.
 
Pedigree isn't insinuating the death of Microsoft or something. You are the fanboys that take it with too much heart and understand him wrongly i think.
Microsoft won't pull a Dreamcast that's for sure, but this unveilment shows exactly what Pedigree is saying. I also think it's pretty much a given if you really understand how stuff work in this industry. Microsoft will need to push some big nasty original titles to snatch the most userbase possible before PS3 is there or else their headstart may not give them any advantages.
 
SomeDude said:
I'm sure there eventually will be some amazing graphically made games for XBox360...but so far I'm not really impressed. My number 1 most anticipated game for the system (Perfect Dark Zero) looks like a Dreamcast game. I really hope Rare end up delivering.
seriously, i was all hyped for 2 reasons

PDZ
DOA4

what i got was

joeschmo.png
 
Need for Speed was the one truly impressive game, so I was most curious about that.

I agree that Tiger Woods looked amazingly bad. Olimario's no-grass complaints apply here even more than in the new Zelda.
 
I think we're all forgetting the past. How many games for a launch were amazing? 1, maybe two. The only exception was in my opinion, the PSP. The truth is, each launch tends to have a couple impressive games and about a dozen or so shovelware. It looks like Gears of War and PGR3 are the big ones with the possibility of DOA4. The rest will probably be ignored by the gaming populace.

Still doesn't stop me from changing my mind about getting an X360. If Dice announces Rallisport 3 and there's a new Banjo-Kazooie on the way, my interest in X360 may return. Until then, I don't really give a shit about X360 except for PGR3.
 
I agree with you Mr. Chum.

SCi have already been quoted as saying that while X360 is nice, the userbase does not justify new development on its own, so they will wait until the market is joined by PS3.

So early next-gen, you'll have the following three situations, IMO:

1) Microsoft funded and published games, trying to push the hardware as much as possible, while also keeping the releases coming regularly

2) 3rd parties porting their multiplatform stuff up to X360, or across from PC

3) 3rd parties not releasing anything until they can release it across at least one other next-gen platform to get reasonable economies of scale. Unfortunately, that likely means PS3, and likely means lead development on that, with ports to X360 and maybe rev.
 
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