One obvious question to consider here: is this actually surprising or unexpected?
Let's do some back of the envelope math. How many sporting events are there of similar importance to the Australian International weightlifting competition? Well, the event is under the aegis of the International Weightlifting Federation. Checking out
their calendar, and counting just the official IWF events, I count 22 weightlifting events this year alone. And if the Australian International is standard in format, it looks like there are 8 weight classes for women.
Ok, now we have to recall that weightlifting is not actually the only sport. In fact there are a significant number of sports that are approximately as interesting as weightlifting, and would similarly merit some kind of news story like this one. Let's be real this is an Olympic sport and so no one really cares except when we can all have fun cheering for our country during the actual Olympics. So let's count up the
sports in the Summer Olympics and use that as a baseline for number of sports of this boringness level. There are 42.
So what do we get? Multiply 22x8x42 and that gives us a super rough estimate of 7392 possible wins of approximately this level of noteworthiness in women's sports this year. Arguably this is overstating the case since we don't actually know that the other minor sports have a similar number of events, and while some have even more categories, some don't have classes or categories at all. On the other hand, given that a state high school wrestling tournament was enough to make the news, it seems more likely to me we're not casting our net nearly wide enough. But what the hell, let's go conservative and drop down to 5000.
Ok, now. What would we expect to see given independence of our two variables? (Remember, we're wondering about transgender women winning sporting competitions. We want to know if there might be a relationship between being a woman who has transitioned and winning at sports that no one typically gives a shit about.) From what I've been able to find,
a commonly used current estimate for the proportion of the population that is transgender is 0.6%. Great, let's pop em together. 5000 potential wins times 0.6% gets us an expected 30 transgender women winning uninteresting sports in a given year. The number we've seen so far this year: 1.
I think we might still be a little ways from needing to worry that transgender women are winning too much at uninteresting sports.
(Side note: there were 972 total medals handed out at the last Summer Olympics. Let's say slightly less than half were for women's events, call it 450. Multiply by 0.6%, we would expect (a little less than) three transgender women winning medals at a Summer Olympics.)