Support NeoGAF

[Steeped in a Sea of Games]

This is unprecedented in decades. As much as I hate his other policies, perhaps Trump will have what it takes to finally break the impasse in North Korea. He's made a deal with China that suggests they might withdraw support or even take military action should Kim Jong-Un cross any red lines. Unlike his recent predecessors, he's got the nads for geopolitics and the will to carry it through. So, yeah. Let Kim test his toys. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think it will be different this time. It has to be different, for the sake of the North Korean people.

I sort of get what you're saying here, but the amount of dead will be staggering. I wouldn't think the North Korean people will be benefiting much.

 

[antonz]

The only "Nads" Trump has is willing to sell out the US position to make deals. If China agrees to anything its because Donald Trump has given them more than they could ever dream was possible to get from the US. North Korea collapse will cause unprecedented disaster in the region economically etc. which is exactly why the status quo has been the modus operandi.

 

[Iolo]

Honestly if there's one person we can trust in a fast moving, unpredictable crisis it's Trump.

That reminds me, I think Jared is on vacation and Trump is in Florida with no senior staff. It's not like anything is brewing, so probably no need to worry.

 

[whyamihere]

Was it any different for Iraqi, Afghani, Libyan, Syrian, Yemeni people? Sixth time's the charm!

Well, yes, there's a big difference in terms of the South's willingness to reunify even in the face of overwhelming costs. The long term result would probably go better than the other examples.

But the humanitarian crisis in the short term if this isn't handled well? Completely unparalleled.

 

[Aikidoka]

This is unprecedented in decades. As much as I hate his other policies, perhaps Trump will have what it takes to finally break the impasse in North Korea. He's made a deal with China that suggests they might withdraw support or even take military action should Kim Jong-Un cross any red lines. Unlike his recent predecessors, he's got the nads for geopolitics and the will to carry it through. So, yeah. Let Kim test his toys. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think it will be different this time. It has to be different, for the sake of the North Korean people.

Lol. Trump's understanding of the situation all comes from a 10 minute conversation he had with the president of China. It's definitely wishful thinking to suggest he's competent at all.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

Well, yes, there's a big difference in terms of the South's willingness to reunify even in the face of overwhelming costs. The long term result would probably go better than the other examples.

But the humanitarian crisis in the short term if this isn't handled well? Completely unparalleled.

Is there such a willingness? All popular polls suggest the opposite.

 

[weremichael]

U.S and Israel are at the forefront of missile defense technology, which is nowhere near an easy task. We are talking about throwing missiles at other missiles which travel faster than the speed of sound. Everything has to be in perfect conditions to even consider it to be a success from the angle, the speed, and the distance.

ICBMs are basically rockets and Russia and U.S have designed those to carry multiple warheads, this means in order to target an ICBM you have to hit it before those warheads split (typically in reentry if I am not mistaken), do you realize the near impossibility of such a task?

A missile defense system that can't ensure 100% guaranteed success against a nuclear strike is effectively a failed system, but it is and will continue to be improved upon.

The missile defense system U.S and Israel have is indeed "decent" when you compare it to other missile defense systems. Anyways most of these are designed for mid and short ranged missiles and will shoot multiple missiles at each target for increased success. Since these never been used (exception of Israel's Arrow system) in combat against projectiles, it is hit or miss.

This is why U.S would not allow a nation like North Korea to have missile technology that is close to ICBM level, hell, U.S don't even want them to be able to have range on U.S mainland. U.S likely would of struck Iran as well if it remained compliant while testing missiles since it won't just threaten U.S, but send the Middle-East into a nuclear race.

I have to say, I probably would approve of a preemptive strike, but who knows if it would escalate. It WOULD be wise for NK to take the bombing and limp home, but from their actions with the shelling of an island a couple years ago, I can see them being reckless enough to retaliate.

Blah, blah...but we have had the technology since the Carter administration.

Realistically, we have a man-child who learned that he has access to tomahawk missiles (at $1.87m each). Like a boy with a BB gun, he's going to fire it until he shoots his eye out. Sadly, each shot hits actual humans. It's really depressing. As much as I appreciate your well written post regarding the advances in missile defence, I remember Reagan's Star Wars defence system and all the bullshit that has hawkishly been spun around it.

Violence begets violence.

 

[whyamihere]

Is there such a willingness? All popular polls suggest the opposite.

There's a willingness by the political elite of South Korea to at least unify the country.

 

[Steeped in a Sea of Games]

Honestly if there's one person we can trust in a fast moving, unpredictable crisis it's Trump.

Uh, trust what? To completey fuck it up because he fires from the hip without thinking at all? The guy can't even go one day without causing a scene.

 

[antonz]

Is there such a willingness? All popular polls suggest the opposite.

It would be a huge economic crisis. I mean Lowball estimates are like 800+ billion just to build the North Korean Economy up to South Korean standards.

 

[BocoDragon]

Uh, trust what? To completey fuck it up because he fires from the hip without thinking at all? The guy can't even go one day without causing a scene.

Turn on your sarcasm detector.

 

[whyamihere]

It would be a huge economic crisis. I mean Lowball estimates are like 800+ billion just to build the North Korean Economy up to South Korean standards.

Yeah. It's like taking a country from 1970 and going, here we are in 2017!

 

[weremichael]

There's a willingness by the political elite of South Korea to at least unify the country.

And they'll pay for reunification without bankrupting their nation?

 

[Steeped in a Sea of Games]

Turn on your sarcasm detector.

If so, I just can't tell anymore. People need to stop using sarcasm with Trump because anything goes these days.

 

[reckless]

It would be a huge economic crisis. I mean Lowball estimates are like 800+ billion just to build the North Korean Economy up to South Korean standards.

Hell of a lot more than that. East/West Germany cost like 2.5 trillion and they still aren't equal.

The disparity between the 2 was also less than NK/SK and they didn't have a war beforehand.

The cost of unification would be staggering.

 

[whyamihere]

And they'll pay for reunification without bankrupting their nation?

I don't have the answers! I'm just pointing out why the situation is potentially different than the ones that poster listed, even if I agree in theory that striking North Korea unprovoked is a terrible idea.

 

[Hidden One]

damn the end is already huh...it's been real GAF. It's been real...

 

[Steeped in a Sea of Games]

Hell of a lot more than that. East/West Germany cost like 2.5 trillion and they still aren't equal.

The disparity between the 2 was also less than NK/SK and they didn't have a war beforehand.

The cost of unification would be staggering.

Not to mention at least two generations of brainwashed citizens. The social cost would probably be just as high.

 

[tsumineko]

This is not good... as someone who lives in Japan, not so far from Tokyo, it's pretty rattling. I'm sure our fellow Gaffers in South Korea and China are feeling the same way. Good luck everyone.

 

[RM8]

This is not good... as someone who lives in Japan, not so far from Tokyo, it's pretty rattling. I'm sure our fellow Gaffers in South Korea and China are feeling the same way. Good luck everyone.

I don't think anything will happen. One of my Korean friends here in Tokyo was quite concerned, though.

 

[DavidDesu]

Surely the US is wise enough to know not to antagonise NK. I would be feeling fucking nervous if I lived in South Korea right now, that's who NK would obviously hit in retaliation for anything the US. I assume the US is pretty safe whereas N Korea probably really could do something terrible to S Korea if pushed into it.

 

[Madness]

Not to mention at least two generations of brainwashed citizens. The social cost would probably be just as high.

You would see suicide bombings, honor attacks for decades. They revere the Il-Sung family as gods. Those willing to accept SK will still have hatred for the US. And then the millions who would flee into China would hold hatred for a long time.

The biggest immediate danger is neutralzing North Korean artillery to Seoul which is barely 195KM distance between Pyongyang. They would level a world city like Seoul and cause millions of deaths. Gotta see how serious the orange turd is this time.

 

[tsumineko]

I don't think anything will happen. One of my Korean friends here in Tokyo was quite concerned, though.

I'd listen to your Korean friend then, we have no idea what's going to happen. That's why it's concerning.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

This is not good... as someone who lives in Japan, not so far from Tokyo, it's pretty rattling. I'm sure our fellow Gaffers in South Korea and China are feeling the same way. Good luck everyone.

They can't reach you. You're fine. Worry about me being near Hiroshima haha

There's a willingness by the political elite of South Korea to at least unify the country

From the Irish people I've talked to, they often peg a 20 year grace period until reunification of NI after secession. How long will NK take? How much easier would it be if we didn't have to render the country inhospitable and create millions of orphans?

 

[Obliterator]

I mean it's going to go down one day, we all realize that right? It's inevitable. At some point N Korea will have to be dealt with. And when it does it will be ugly.

It's incredibly unfortunate it's Trump in office over this but some sort of confrontation with N Korea is going down one day or another

 

[whyamihere]

From the Irish people I've talked to, they often peg a 20 year grace period until reunification of NI after secession. How long will NK take? How much easier would it be if we didn't have to render the country inhospitable and create millions of orphans?

I am not arguing that we attack North Korea. I am not arguing that reunification would be easy or even as a proponent of reunification. I am literally describing the context of the situation being different than those posed by that poster.

 

[tsumineko]

They can't reach you. You're fine. Worry about me being near Hiroshima haha

Pretty sure they can. But anyway, we don't know what they're really capable of, or what will happen.

 

[fixedpoint]

This is unprecedented in decades. As much as I hate his other policies, perhaps Trump will have what it takes to finally break the impasse in North Korea. He's made a deal with China that suggests they might withdraw support or even take military action should Kim Jong-Un cross any red lines. Unlike his recent predecessors, he's got the nads for geopolitics and the will to carry it through. So, yeah. Let Kim test his toys. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think it will be different this time. It has to be different, for the sake of the North Korean people.

Impulsive warmongering based on a brittle, questionable and easily influenced understanding of the world is not "geopolitics".

 

[BocoDragon]

This is not good... as someone who lives in Japan, not so far from Tokyo, it's pretty rattling. I'm sure our fellow Gaffers in South Korea and China are feeling the same way. Good luck everyone.

As usual, the Koreans I know in SK are acting like nothing is happening.

But as I've said before, I think the SK lack of panic is a poor barometer on which to gauge the true severity of the situation. It's in their national character to completely ignore NK. They've done it for decades.

 

[MadJackChurchill]

I am not arguing that we attack North Korea. I am not arguing that reunification would be easy or even as a proponent of reunification. I am literally describing the context of the situation being different than those posed by that poster.

"Massive humanitarian crisis if this isn't handled well". How can I not infer "we attack North Korea" from that? I don't think trade deals and technology exchange will result in a refugee crisis.

 

[norm9]

I mean it's going to go down one day, we all realize that right? It's inevitable. At some point N Korea will have to be dealt with. And when it does it will be ugly.

I never thought it inevitable. I figured the economic packages we give them keeps going and going and eventually, the leadership slowly shifts to more western dependence and the democrtatic model eventually takes over. This is over a generation of course. A pace that is slow enough that the dear leader doesn't lose face.

 

[SZips]

Surely the US is wise enough to know not to antagonise NK. I would be feeling fucking nervous if I lived in South Korea right now, that's who NK would obviously hit in retaliation for anything the US. I assume the US is pretty safe whereas N Korea probably really could do something terrible to S Korea if pushed into it.

Look at who our president is, then think about what you said in the first sentence.

Sure, collectively we're smart enough not to do something as stupid as that, but we aren't the megalomaniac cheeto with our finger on the trigger.

 

[tsumineko]

As usual, the Koreans I know in SK are acting like nothing is happening.

But as I've said before, I think the SK lack of panic is a poor barometer on which to gauge the true severity of the situation. It's in their national character to completely ignore NK. They've done it for decades.

Yep makes sense. If they don't ignore it they live a life in panic and they can't do that. Hope everything will be okay.

 

[whyamihere]

"Massive humanitarian crisis if this isn't handled well". How can I not infer "we attack North Korea" from that? I don't think trade deals and technology exchange will result in a refugee crisis.

You can not infer that as wanting to attack North Korea because that's not what I'm saying? Maybe I worded that poorly, but I'm arguing that there is going to be a massive humanitarian crisis if Trump tries to attack North Korea. Which, yes?

I think you're trying to argue with someone who isn't arguing what I'm saying, which I think we largely agree.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Fuck. I just got to s. korea.

 

[Obliterator]

I never thought it inevitable. I figured the economic packages we give them keeps going and going and eventually, the leadership slowly shifts to more western dependence and the democrtatic model eventually takes over. This is over a generation of course. A pace that is slow enough that the dear leader doesn't lose face.

There is zero evidence the country is or has shown any movement on this whatsoever. All while continuing to further develop nuclear weapons.

It's nice to belive things will "just work out" in the world but history rarely plays out that way. I don't want war as much as anyone else. But I'll be highly surprised if we somehow totally bypass conflict with N Korea over the next decade or two

 

[Bad_Boy]

Fuck fuck fuck fuckkkkk

 

[whyamihere]

There is zero evidence the country is or has shown any movement on this whatsoever. All while continuing to further develop nuclear weapons.

It's nice to belive things will "just work out" in the world but history rarely plays out that way. I don't want war as much as anyone else. But I'll be highly surprised if we somehow totally bypass conflict with N Korea over the next decade or two

I would think that North Korea would fall on its own at some point, but if it didn't during the famine in the 90s, I don't know if that's a realistic expectation.

 

[Gorillaz]

Better finish Persona 5 ASAP

I just finished the 2nd dungeon and my S links are low as fuck

why couldn't this have waited for a month or so, fuck

I mean it's going to go down one day, we all realize that right? It's inevitable. At some point N Korea will have to be dealt with. And when it does it will be ugly.

It's incredibly unfortunate it's Trump in office over this but some sort of confrontation with N Korea is going down one day or another

We've been circling around this for a long ass time in terms of "dealing" with NK. I do think some sort of "brush up" was going to happen eventually but was hoping it was in the hands of a admin that had it together

that shit ain't happening

 

[Obliterator]

I would think that North Korea would fall on its own at some point, but if it didn't during the famine in the 90s, I don't know if that's a realistic expectation.

That's where I am with it. If the regime in N Korea hasn't fallen by now I think it's kinda naive to assume they will anytime soon. As fucked up as it is Kim has an iron hold on them.

As much as people like to scream about Trump and nukes being dangerous (it is) a nuclear capable N Korea should be outright terrifying to anyone in the region

 

[MadJackChurchill]

You can not infer that as wanting to attack North Korea because that's not what I'm saying? Maybe I worded that poorly, but I'm arguing that there is going to be a massive humanitarian crisis if Trump tries to attack North Korea. Which, yes?

I think you're trying to argue with someone who isn't arguing what I'm saying, which I think we largely agree.

I just think that reunification is doomed if the US attacks NK anyway. China won't want a US ally on their border - that's full insulation. So the humanitarian crisis can only be horrendous should Trump attack. On my part it was more of a diatribe on the "USA USA" feel of this thread and not you specifically. I think we do agree, but disagree on the consequences of a pre-emptive strike.

 

[BravesCountry]

That's where I am with it. If the regime in N Korea hasn't fallen by now I think it's kinda naive to assume they will anytime soon. As fucked up as it is Kim has an iron hold on them.

As much as people like to scream about Trump and nukes being dangerous (it is) a nuclear capable N Korea should be outright terrifying to anyone in the region

What about a military coup from within if they think Un is becoming too much of a liability?

 

[norm9]

There is zero evidence the country is or has shown any movement on this whatsoever. All while continuing to further develop nuclear weapons.

It's nice to belive things will "just work out" in the world but history rarely plays out that way. I don't want war as much as anyone else. But I'll be highly surprised if we somehow totally bypass conflict with N Korea over the next decade or two

The example that there is progress, as slow and small as it might be, is the two countries walking together at the Olympics. It's small, but it was something. It's those little things that will help with reunification and peace.

What I don't understand is people don't give a fuck about NK testing missiles and what not, most people have zero oppinion about the country.

And then we send a fucking carrier and puffing our chest, and then everyone starts going, " We have to do something." Did anyone actually give a fuck about Syria until a few days ago, and then we attack, and now it's we have to do something about them. Shit trips me out.

 

[whyamihere]

I just think that reunification is doomed if the US attacks NK anyway. China won't want a US ally on their border - that's full insulation. So the humanitarian crisis can only be horrendous should Trump attack. On my part it was more of a diatribe on the "USA USA" feel of this thread and not you specifically. I think we do agree, but disagree on the consequences of a pre-emptive strike.

I would say a preemptive strike would only be warranted if North Korea tried to fire a nuke at the US mainland and we were completely certain that was their plan. I do not think that's what this is. This will be a missile test for a missile that would probably struggle to reach Hawaii.

 

[Tinfoilhatsron]

The Pentagon is pushing back on the NBC report apparently.

 

[weremichael]

I never thought it inevitable. I figured the economic packages we give them keeps going and going and eventually, the leadership slowly shifts to more western dependence and the democrtatic model eventually takes over. This is over a generation of course. A pace that is slow enough that the dear leader doesn't lose face.

WRONG! It had to be violence. Violence solves everything. Where are my cruise missiles? I have an armada waiting to be used. It's only depreciating in value. We're losing money by not killing people.

I'm sorry but I'm sick with the idea that my fellow citizens have voted to get the world into a place where the most powerful country in the world is AGAIN threatening to preemptively attack some of the poorest, least educated inhabitants of this earth. I definitely don't have the answer to solving the totalitarian regime of North Korea, but I know that violence isn't the answer.

 

[Obliterator]

What about a military coup from within if they think Un is becoming too much of a liability?

I guess I would just ask where is the faith that this will happen or that whoever would replace him wouldn't also be incredibly dangerous?

The whole situation in N Korea is a total mess and one that is very dangerous for everyone involved.

I REALLY hope we can avoid war. But at what point do you say it's OK for the world to keep ignoring the problem? Because if they obtain the actual ability to nuclear strike intercontinentally we all have a giant problem on our hands.

 

[whyamihere]

ugh why didn't we just vote for the lady who knew who Kim Jong-un was instead of this asshole.

 

[norm9]

The Pentagon is pushing back on the NBC report apparently.

Of course. Paraphrasing the prez, " We ain't telling you the plan, homie."

I REALLY hope we can avoid war. But at what point do you say it's OK for the world to keep ignoring the problem? Because if they obtain the actual ability to nuclear strike intercontinentally we all have a giant problem on our hands.

Pakistan got nuclear weapons. *shurgs* The country housing Bin fucking Laden.

 

[Imperfected]

ugh why didn't we just vote for the lady who knew who Kim Jong-un was instead of this asshole.

She knew how to use e-mails. That's one thing we don't have to worry about with Trump, because he uses carrier pigeons.