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[Men_in_Boxes]

Marathon the Enigma.

You get two votes.

The first vote (top five choices) goes to where you think the Steam launch window CCU high will reach. This would measure how effectively Bungie & PlayStation build excitement for Marathon.

The second vote (bottom five choices) goes to where you think the Sunday CCU high will be four weeks later. This would measure how sticky, or engaging the game is.

Example: ARC Raiders had Steam launch window CCU high of 482,000. Four weeks later, ARC Raiders hit Sunday high of 330,000, a 32% drop.

Example II: Concord had a Steam launch window high of 697. Four weeks later, Concord was pulled off life support, a 100% drop.

 

[yogaflame]

Supreme Flop

 

[Dacvak]

Charging any amount of money for this is a mistake. I would have given it a try if it was free, but I'm not paying $40 for a game that no one will be playing in a few months.

Edit: I misclicked and wanted 21-40% drop.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Having played a decent amount of the betas I can safely say it should have been f2p to have any shot to survive

 

[bender]

It will peak at 14x of any extraction shooter named Marathon at launch.

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

I think Destiny players are bitter about this game. Factor in bad early impressions, muh stolen art controversy, and famously woke studio and it don't look particularly good. I will not offer an explicit prediction but merely a hope that Highguard gains some semblance of financial success and Marathon flops hard.

 

[Tobimacoss]

200-299k peak with 41-60% drop.

 

[Dacvak]

There's a reality out there where Harambe wasn't killed, and Bungie is still at 160 employees making Halo games.

We got bad universe RNG, guys.

 

[phant0m]

If WoM from streamers is very positive, I can see a launch week 250k

Less than half after a month, but honestly anything that holds steady around or above 50k will have long legs.

If you read GAF you'd think Destiny 2 was dead and had 20 people left playing, but its 24h peak was just under 50k. And until the late autumn lul was regularly pulling 50-75k daily

 

[Zacfoldor]

Only I have voted for the two worst case scenario options so far.

 

[LectureMaster]

Having played a decent amount of the betas I can safely say it should have been f2p to have any shot to survive

 

[MayauMiao]

To Bungie's credit, the graphic is a huge improvement over last disaster.

 

[clarky]

I disagree. All respect to HeisenbergFX4 but hes not that keen on extraction in general, unless I'm mistaken.

I thought it was great. I Put 50 hours into the last test and wanted more.

 

[Reavr]

NeoGAF thinks everything is DOA

I'm thinking 80k. Not a nightmarish disaster but enough to keep things going for a few months before it hits 15-20k. I'm sure they'll throw in some free weekends and sales by then.

 

[clarky]

NeoGAF thinks everything is DOA

I'm thinking 80k. Not a nightmarish disaster but enough to keep things going for a few months before it hits 15-20k. I'm sure they'll throw in some free weekends and sales by then.

Vidoc has 300k views in a few hours, the interest is there. See what happens with the Beta. That will be make or break for the game.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Having played a decent amount of the betas I can safely say it will survive =p

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I respectfully disagree. All respect to HeisenbergFX4 but hes not that keen on extraction in general, unless I'm mistaken.

I thought it was great. I Put 50 hours into the last test and wanted more.

I have put a decent amount of hours into ARC Raiders and couldn't begin to guess the amount of time I spent in Tarkov

But I will agree that Marathon isn't my style of shooter

 

[clarky]

I have put a decent amount of hours into ARC Raiders and couldn't begin to guess the amount of time I spent in Tarkov

But I will agree that Marathon isn't my style of shooter

Thought you dropped off Arc pretty quickly?

Also where is the dead gif? You slacking today.

 

[Success]

Bungie need to thank Embark Studios for making extraction shooters mainstream.

The audience has now been trained to purchase extration shooters.

GAF, needs to keep up with the times. The first 12 responses, other than the first, are absolutely embarrassing.

Marathon will live and will have a similar lifecycle to The Finals.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Thought you dropped off Arc pretty quickly?

Also where is the dead gif? You slacking today.

I hit 75 and geared somewhat decently and lost my drive that is for sure

 

[Kenpachii]

I think they could sit on a hit at 400k+, but what do i know.

 

[kevboard]

80k launch day. possibly with an upwards trajectory if the word of mouth is good.

bungie has a built in audience I think. so it will not be a failure. but I also don't see it being an insane success.

although they seemingly improved the game a lot, so who knows.

 

[clarky]

I hit 75 and geared somewhat decently and lost my drive that is for sure

I think this is where this game will do things better than Arc. I love that game but without a premade group it becomes a bit aimless after a while.

Also the PVP and loot is way way better in Marathon. I know it didn't gel with you, but I though it was great.

It wasn't perfect though and did need work though, see how things turn out. I give it a 50/50 chance personally.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

0-99k and -61-80%.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Wait, so, they are not doing an open beta then?

 

[clarky]

Wait, so, they are not doing an open beta then?

They absolutely will. Guess it gets announced after Christmas?

Surprised they didn't mention it today also. I'm guessing there is one more closed test first.

 

[Varteras]

I'm going to guess a peak of between 200k to 300k concurrent. That is contingent on Sony and Bungie doing significant marketing for it over the next few months. But I suspect it'll have a big decline of 60% to 80% within the first 4 weeks. Though none of this means the game will or won't land on a large enough pool of consistent players to make money and be worth sustaining.

I will say the recent ViDoc did a lot to change my own opinion of the game. It's visually a lot better than it looked in the leaked testing footage, even though I'm still not a huge fan of the aesthetic in general. The gameplay also looks a bit tighter and refined compared to what we were seeing. So, I'll see if the game grows on me and what else Bungie has in store that they may not be talking about yet. I also want to see full matches in updated builds. Not just careful edits.

 

[AJUMP23]

Major oof incoming. They will close bungie

 

[ZehDon]

Hard to predict. Sony needs this to land, so I imagine they'll push this hard between now and March. That should push the initial numbers up, but also gives it a higher room to fall.

Bungie's gameplay loop was not built with the fluid player interactions of Arc Raiders in mind; the game's combat is fast, so it rewards twitch shooters. Bungie have tried to tack it on, but the core just isn't there. That all but removes the thing that made Arc Raiders blow up: the unpredictable player encounters that makes the game so incredible. Right now, I'd go with ~150k concurrent peak and down to ~15k concurrent after the first month as players realise it's just rinse and repeat with zero in the way of special player encounters. With that said, I expect that 15k to be pretty rock solid and Bungie's base to build from.

 

[TommyCronin6969]

DestinyOnArrival

 

[Kenneth Haight]

Major oof incoming. They will close bungie

"I convinced the board to acquire bungie……and then guess what……guess what……..I retired and went to relax with my millions and left it for Herman to deal with"

 

[Insanemaelstrom]

I think it will do surprisingly well, based on bungie's name alone. Also the latest video was great, not toention the word of mouth from the last 2 alphas have been positive.

Marathon is also lucky that arc blew up. There are now far more people interested in extraction shooters as compared to before. So, if Sony has a well timed open beta, they might attract a significant user base for it.

 

[Bojji]

Supreme Flop

Ultra Extreme Turbo Alpha 3 flop.

 

[Thebonehead]

I hit 75

Congrats.

I knew you were old,. I just didn't realise how old you were.

and lost my drive that is for sure

They have pills for people of your 'vintage' that help with that.

 

[Shubh_C63]

Above 100K Launch and then dropping down to below 40K. A drop of 80-90%

 

[nnytk]

I hope this succeeds, Destiny 2 did not keep my interest for long. But the studio is so damn good at engaging gameplay, gunplay.

Marathon looks different, unique, I applaud that.

 

[HRK69]

I'm confident there's a big enough audience for extraction shooters to hit some interesting player counts

I just hope the genre dies very soon though. Still haven't seen one that makes the endgame loop worth it without a wipe. It all seems so repetitive and stale

I think dev talent better spent on fresh ideas like immersive sims, single-player narratives, or innovative co-op experiences. Not for chasing trends.

 

[yurinka]

Charging any amount of money for this is a mistake.

Bullshit, 40€ price wasn't an issue for Tarkov, Arc Raiders or Helldivers 2. It's better because by doing so they don't need to be aggresive with monetization like F2P games that constantly spam you.

 

[clarky]

Bullshit, 40€ price wasn't for Tarkov, Arc Raiders or Helldivers 2. It's better because by doing so they don't need to be aggresive with monetization like F2P games that constantly spam you.

"But but there loads of free to play extraction shooters!"

Yes and 99% them have sub 1k CCU and are fucking awful. The 2 biggest and only ones that matter on the market are paid.

 

[yurinka]

I'd say over 150-200K Steam CCU launch peak, having dropped maximum 20% a month after release. I think will have a very good retention and will grow over time as they keep expanding it.

Helldivers 2 and Arc Raider have a majority of players in PC, Bungie will have it in console instead: something like 60% PS5, 30% PC and 10% Xbox. Combining all platforms may be relatively close to Helldivers 2 and Arc Raiders releases but under them due hardcore PvP focus and no PvE will limit the audience.

"I convinced the board to acquire bungie……and then guess what……guess what……..I retired and went to relax with my millions and left it for Herman to deal with"

Back in 2021 Jim Ryan mentioned that with their GaaS and PC push they planned to double their first party revenue in 5 years. And they are achieving it ahead of schedule.

Sony's CFO mentioned that GaaS made over 40% of the first party revenue in the two most recent quarters.

Marathon is also lucky that arc blew up.

Were they also "lucky" with all the Halo and Destiny games? It isn't luck.

Wait, so, they are not doing an open beta then?

Yes, they are doing an open beta before release. They said it this summer and said it again today

 

[clarky]

I'd say over 150-200K Steam CCU launch peak, having dropped maximum 20% a month after release. I think will have a very good retention and will grow over time as they keep expanding it.

Helldivers 2 and Arc Raider have a majority of players in PC, Bungie will have it in console instead: something like 60% PS5, 30% PC and 10% Xbox. Combining all platforms may be relatively close to Helldivers 2 and Arc Raiders releases but under them due hardcore PvP focus and no PvE will limit the audience.


Back in 2021 Jim Ryan mentioned that with their GaaS and PC push they planned to double their first party revenue in 5 years. And they are achieving it ahead of schedule.

Sony's CFO mentioned that GaaS made over 40% of the first party revenue in the two most recent quarters.


Were they also "lucky" with all the Halo and Destiny games? It isn't luck.


Yes, they are doing an open beta before release. They said it this summer and said it again today

I'd say under 200k personally. It's PVP focus will kneecap it from going higher. Most people are allergic to shooting other people for some reason, see the amount of crying for a PVE mode in the Arc raiders threads.

All depends on the marketing and the reception to the beta of course. Seems like the Vidoc has gone down quite well. Step in the right direction at least.

I think it will do reasonably well.

 

[winjer]

I'm betting on a complete flop.
Maybe not as bad as Concord, but very low numbers to make up for what Sony paid for Bungie.

 

[Cakeboxer]

I have fed all possible AIs with data, and they all came to the conclusion that Marathon's performance will look like this:

 

[SnapShot]

Marathon is in a very weird spot right now, you've got:

- People comparing it to Concord because of the visuals
- People comparing it unfavorably to ARC Raiders
- People who just don't find its visuals attractive
- People wanting it to fail because of the art plagiarism blunder
- People wanting it to fail because Bungie put less focus on their favorite obsession (Destiny)
- People wanting it to fail because they don't want Bungie turning this long dormant IP into a Live service extraction shooter
- People wanting it to fail simply because they want Sony to put more focus on Singleplayer or their other existing IPs

Reception seems more positive after recent tests so It'll be a miracle if this game does well.

 

[Gilgalaad]

 

[Sand Dan Glokta]

Vidoc has 300k views in a few hours, the interest is there. See what happens with the Beta. That will be make or break for the game.

That doesn't really mean much. I follow vidocs of many games that i will never play because watching yt channel gameplay or following drama is fun. Bungie is def on of those companies that many people follow, compared to actual players.

 

[DerivedDataCache]

Im wondering if Marathon was a BR instead of a extraction shooter, it would've been more successful.

 

[clarky]

That doesn't really mean much. I follow vidocs of many games that i will never play because watching yt channel gameplay or following drama is fun. Bungie is def on of those companies that many people follow, compared to actual players.

It means there is at least interest in the game.

Maybe a lot is morbid curiosity but its still interest.

 

[clarky]

Im wondering if Marathon was a BR instead of a extraction shooter, it would've been more successful.

The game isn't out yet?

 

[DerivedDataCache]

The game isn't out yet?

If you look at the release announcement thread. People already treat it like its dead.