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The Marathon (Full Release) CCU Prediction Thread...

Predict Marathons CCU high, as well as it's S2 retention performance...


  • Total voters
    181
  • Poll closed .
Considering the dev who retweeted things like we need to use violence on ice officers, I have lost all goodwill towards Marathon. Bungie should not accept that so fuck them.
Wow I missed that one, what was the tweet? And that's the shit I been talking about lately their behavior alone is off-putting... Condoning or even pushing got an inkling of violence is disgusting in any shape or form, especially towards the ones that put their life on the line daily for us
 
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Slay the Spires opening trend

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vs Marathons

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BF6 sold 6m across all the platforms or something reaching peak around 800k on Steam. Marathon costs less - not a full price game - while the cost of development might be comparable to BF6 (maybe less). And it also needs to maintain CCU due to being an online game. I think being around 100k for weeks should not be a flop.
I think people are just enjoying predicting the launch peak number. Eventually this will go down with comparable numbers with PAYDAY2, I think.

People need to see the 4th map too. Bungie goes unexpectedly hard some times.
 
Some AI generated estimates:

My educated guess for Bungie's Marathon (released March 5, 2026):
Development costs: $250–350 million
Marketing costs: $75–125 million

Estimated break-even: 12–18 million copies sold across all platforms (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Steam PC).
Formula: Copies = Total Costs / (Price × Net %)
E.g., Mid: 400,000,000 / (40 × 0.70) = 14.3M. Transparent: Multiply costs by 1 / net margin (1/0.7 ≈1.43x gross needed)
Reality Check: Live-service MTX (Destiny-style) could halve this (e.g., 7–9M copies + $10–20 ARPU MTX
 
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Let's see if it is going to be highguard or not.
It won't

Some AI generated estimates:

My educated guess for Bungie's Marathon (released March 5, 2026):
Development costs: $250–350 million
Marketing costs: $75–125 million

Estimated break-even: 12–18 million copies sold across all platforms (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Steam PC).
Formula: Copies = Total Costs / (Price × Net %)
E.g., Mid: 400,000,000 / (40 × 0.70) = 14.3M. Transparent: Multiply costs by 1 / net margin (1/0.7 ≈1.43x gross needed)
Reality Check: Live-service MTX (Destiny-style) could halve this (e.g., 7–9M copies + $10–20 ARPU MTX
It's a GaaS, very likely will generate more revenue from addons (battlepasses and mtx) than with full game purchases.

The development cost of that estimate I think it's too high. I'd say it may be around $250 for launch+season 1 dev+marketing, postlaunch content and servers. Let's say $300M to make a conservative estimate.

And let's say on average after in addition to the $40 removing stuff like store cuts, taxes, refunds, chargebacks, transaction fees etc. and adding addons (non-standard editions, passes, mtx...) after a year ends making an average of let's say $80/user to get a conservative estimate (may GaaS make more revenue from addons than from game sales).

around $300M / around $80 = around 3.75M units needed for break even, with season 2 and later getting self funded with its own revenue. Let's say 4M
 
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It won't


It's a GaaS, very likely will generate more revenue from addons (battlepasses and mtx) than with full game purchases
Sure, thats why I posted the mtx estimate, which would decrease the sell estimates by a lot(from 14 mil to 7-9).
The issue is that the game won't get anywhere close to 7-9 million. Financially it will be a bomb. The only question is how much money it will loose.
 
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Some AI generated estimates:

My educated guess for Bungie's Marathon (released March 5, 2026):
Development costs: $250–350 million
Marketing costs: $75–125 million

Estimated break-even: 12–18 million copies sold across all platforms (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Steam PC).
Formula: Copies = Total Costs / (Price × Net %)
E.g., Mid: 400,000,000 / (40 × 0.70) = 14.3M. Transparent: Multiply costs by 1 / net margin (1/0.7 ≈1.43x gross needed)
Reality Check: Live-service MTX (Destiny-style) could halve this (e.g., 7–9M copies + $10–20 ARPU MTX

I got the feeling they went hard on the marketing side, probably because the initial reception was not good.
 
Got to wait until at least Monday to see …. But it's looking like Slay the Spire 2 is the clear winner for now.


The Office Lol GIF

Slay the Spire 2 is a much more casual friendly game with a much larger audience than Marathon (a hardcore PvP game). It's not too surprising to see Spire outperform Marathon, though I did expect Marathon to climb faster than it is.
 
To get ahead of trolling or celebration, what is the overall consensus for what concurrent number Marathon needs to be so it's not a bomba?
For a big new multiplayer game we can look at the previous numbers of similar paid genre games.

Note, we need to see the numbers over the weekend, games like this can grow on Friday and Saturday. Don't make assumptions based on the first few hours.

Massive success = 300K to 500K (Helldivers 2/Arc Raiders type of success)
Really good success = 200K to 300K
Moderate = 100K to 200K (The kind of numbers Helldivers 2 get when they release expansions.)
Bad = Under 100K
Concord = Under 1K

Marathon has special circumstances, with the hate and controversies, so over 150K over the weekend would probably be pretty good considering.

Marathon needs to retain over 100K players in the first month, maybe more, to be healthy. Come April 1st, it should not be under 100K.

This is based on my own personal bullshit, so don't take it too serious. But this is what I assume.
 
Yeah i don't even think this game will touch Destiny 2 expansion CCUs. The final shape (Which un. underperformed according to bungie) had over 300k. Dire.
 
Yeah i don't even think this game will touch Destiny 2 expansion CCUs. The final shape (Which un. underperformed according to bungie) had over 300k. Dire.
I don't know if I would compare the culmination of a 10 year old story to the release of a new game in a still mostly niche genre. There's a reason after the 300k+ CCU for The Final Shape, it dropped to the point it's barely getting 20k a day now. Most Destiny players just wanted to get TFS so they could get closure and then move on.
 
Opening to less than 1/4 of Arc Raider's opening CCU, and having less than half of Arc Raider's current CCU is a disaster yall. It will touch 100k this weekend, but there is no chance the mood is rosy at Bungie.
 
considering what`s riding on this and how long this has been in development at a giant studio like bungie this isn`t a good first impression...at all.
well-thats-not-good-eugene-levy.gif


Three point six billions!
 
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These are the people making Marathon.

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Fuck, this guy is most mellow beta cuck u can think of, he wouldnt recognise actual german nazist even if he was shot dead by one, i mean he is fricken office worker behind keyboard, why even play pretend of being any kind of tuff and talking about punching ppl/chosing violence :D
 
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