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The Marathon (Full Release) CCU Prediction Thread...
- Thread starter Men_in_Boxes
- Start date
TrebleShot
Member
I think it will be popular, for two hours, if you know, you know
Saber
Newd Member
Their main moronic video made it clear so. It has no female attributes unless is a trans.
yurinka
Member
Too early to take any conclusions but it's a promising start.
I think the retention in Marathon in the very short term (the first few days/weeks) will be worse than Arc Raiders because there will be many mainstream players like random casual Bungie fans (or random Arc Raider fans who enjoy its PvE) who see a new Bungie shooter and will go to play it not knowing it's PvP focused, that doesn't have PvE only mode and that it's so hardcore particularly in the first hours, when you dont know the game and still haven't unlocked great stuff. So may also have mixed reviews too due to these reasons.
But I think in the longer term may perform better than Arc Raiders in terms of retention, maybe beyond the first month or two, once players realized what the game is, and once the player who didn't leave notice it keeps getting better and better as you keep learning it and unlocking stuff, word of mouth will improve, particularly as Bungie starts to fix stuff reported by players and adding cool things.
In addition to this, due to pretty likely having a bigger budget, I assume Marathon will keep getting more post launch new content, features, etc, than Arc Raiders, further helping its user retention and new game sales.
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Mengy
wishes it were bannable to say mean things about Marvel
With the way its selling I'm pretty sure it should easily get past 100K.
Now, how long it stays there is the real question....
LordCBH
Gold Member
I haven't looked into sales at all. I was just guessing it'd see around 50% of the server som peak (give or take) since that was free to play.
ContrarianAsshole
Member
"...So what if it bombs?"
"No Bungie game has ever bombed with this much shilling behind it"
"I know, I know. But what if it does?"
"It won't."
"Come on, bomb!"
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Mr Moose
Member
It looks like a synth. That's meant to be human?
SmokSmog
Member
38K after 10 minutes
54K after 15 minutes
64K after 20 minutes
70K after 25 minutes
73K after 30 minutes
76.65K after 35 minutes
77.50K after 40 minutes
79K after 45 minutes
80.20K after 50 minutes
81.15K after 55 minutes
81.70K after 60 minutes
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Saber
Newd Member
It does looks like human though. Whatever the reason to justify its design is another matter entirelly. But I'm pretty sure I saw a thing that might be female.
Kacho
Gold Member
Absolutely perfect picture and reference. Perfect!"...So what if it bombs?"
"No Bungie game has ever bombed with this much shilling behind it"
"I know, I know. But what if it does?"
"It won't."
"Come on, bomb!"
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
It seems Steam is having trouble with orders, hold off on any funerals
ssringo
Member
38K after 10 minutes
54K after 15 minutes
64K after 20 minutes
70K after 25 minutes
73K after 30 minutes
76.65K after 35 minutes
Just in case its needed later on...
The_hunter
Member
Man, I called it at 75k
schaft0620
Member
Eastern Time US gets out of work in 3 hours. Every hour after 5PM ET more people will be joining. The peak time is probably like 10PM ET.
Interfectum
Gold Member
To get ahead of trolling or celebration, what is the overall consensus for what concurrent number Marathon needs to be so it's not a bomba?
BigBeauford
Member
You do know StS2 is out today right?
Edit: wow, shocked that one is only pulling around 70k at the moment.
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Pasta la Vista
Member
Still at work for another 6 hours uggh
BigBeauford
Member
Passing Veilguard's CCU would be a start.
SmokSmog
Member
Europe will go to sleep in 3h.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Probably.
Loomy
Thinks Microaggressions are Real
Bungie and Sony haven't publicized that number yet. I'm thinking they're probably not going to.
Kacho
Gold Member
Yep. If it's anything like the Server Slam. It will hit an early peak, then fall off, and US bros will bump it back up around the early peak numbers in the evening.
Saber
Newd Member
There are alot of factors. But the main one would be player retention.
If they can't hold players to this game it will be doomed regardless.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Let's see if it is going to be highguard or not.
BigBeauford
Member
Wasn't there a big issue with Concord being unplayable at launch as well? Yikeroni
Saber
Newd Member
Problem buying or problem connecting/playing? Because the latter would explain the drop no?
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
And both are having issues it seems
Kacho
Gold Member
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
I doubt it, I don't think it'll just ever be shut down it'll have a constant flow of 20 30k of players but I think it'll be far from a hit or next bit thing.
I just personally still can't quite wrap my brain around how extraction is big time fun for people personally and it's just my opinion, people get so mad losing souls in souls games but losing all your gear in a game is fun? I don't get that and never will despite the reasoning anyone gives.
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Calverz
Member
It wont be. As a paid product, players will feel more inclined to give it a try for longer. I dont see it being a big success or a concord style bomba.
Just average.
LectureMaster
Or is it just one of Adam's balls in my throat?
Didn't expect Spire 2 to be this strong, beating Marathon.. damn.Buying. Here's Slay the Spire 2 CCUs for reference.
BigBeauford
Member
Its perhaps the most popular deck builder of all time outside hearthstone. There was never a doubt it would be huge
SmokSmog
Member
Full launch hour
38K after 10 minutes
54K after 15 minutes
64K after 20 minutes
70K after 25 minutes
73K after 30 minutes
76.65K after 35 minutes
77.50K after 40 minutes
79K after 45 minutes
80.20K after 50 minutes
81.15K after 55 minutes
81.70K after 60 minutes
Marathon is running out of stamina.
38K after 10 minutes
54K after 15 minutes
64K after 20 minutes
70K after 25 minutes
73K after 30 minutes
76.65K after 35 minutes
77.50K after 40 minutes
79K after 45 minutes
80.20K after 50 minutes
81.15K after 55 minutes
81.70K after 60 minutes
Marathon is running out of stamina.
Kacho
Gold Member
Yep Slay the Spire 2 is pulling ahead. Should do big numbers, even in early access.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Well it has surpassed Concord so it is already more successful.
LordCBH
Gold Member
For concurrent, I do not know. But the most important will be keeping them. If the numbers cuts in half after two days then that's not great.
LordCBH
Gold Member
Tbf the first Slay the Spire was an incredible game.
FoxMcChief
Gold Member
First couple of hours are free right, until people can stop requesting a refund?
ChuckeRearmed
Member
BF6 sold 6m across all the platforms or something reaching peak around 800k on Steam. Marathon costs less - not a full price game - while the cost of development might be comparable to BF6 (maybe less). And it also needs to maintain CCU due to being an online game. I think being around 100k for weeks should not be a flop.
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Saber
Newd Member
Players can easly drop the game if it didn't give enough reasons for them to keep playing/engaged. Even when its paid game. Also, theres aways a possibility for refund.
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kpopSuperstar
Member
Considering the dev who retweeted things like we need to use violence on ice officers, I have lost all goodwill towards Marathon. Bungie should not accept that so fuck them.
