NFL 2015 Week 2 |OT| - A Fraud’s First Steps

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No. It's been seen. Modern fg attempts at or around the 15 yard line provide us statistical data that shows the average kicker is knocking it in 94+ percent of the time.

That's not enough difference to convince a coach who usually would go for one in a particular situation to go for two.

That article was made months before even the preseason. The fact of the matter is so far, we have seen how much it impacted week 1 a bit. Now let's see how much it climbs in week 2, 3, etc.
 
No. It's been seen. Modern fg attempts at or around the 15 yard line provide us statistical data that shows the average kicker is knocking it in 94+ percent of the time.

That's not enough difference to convince a coach who usually would go for one in a particular situation to go for two.
Specifically, I need to be more than 47% sure i'll make a 2 pt conversion to pull the trigger.
 
Specifically, I need to be more than 47% sure i'll make a 2 pt conversion to pull the trigger.

It's just not how coaches, and people in general, think about things. That's generally the problem with applying statistical models to in the moment decisions.

Belichick isn't gonna go, "hm, there's a 94 percent chance based on non-contextualized data that gostowski is going to make this field goal. If I ran a thousand simulations of this situation, the expected point value would output slightly in favor of going for two."

He's gonna think "hm, get the virtually guaranteed pat and tie this game and go to overtime, or I got a really good play to win this game outright." and if the kicker misses it's as flukey as it ever was.
 
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