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NFL 2015 Week 6 |OT| - I'm tired of waiting.
- Thread starter DeaconKnowledge
- Start date
Sweeney Tom
Banned
Browns curse continues: Cassel starting over Weeden in Dallas
Futurevoid
Member
Cowboys.
Gully State
Member
Crazy that he's 53 already...
Poor Gobias.
so much for that form huh Jerrah
Expected, GO COWBOYS! Fuck this bye week up.
Goro Majima
Kitty Genovese Member
I mean all things considered, I'd rather have a guy who couldn't hack it in Kansas City versus a guy who couldn't hack it in Cleveland.
Who is dumb enough to get a quarterback that wasn't good in Cleveland?
Who is dumb enough to get a quarterback that wasn't good in Cleveland?
VeryGooster
Banned
Wonder what officiating fuck-up goes down in the last two minutes next MNF.
mysteriousmage09
Member
Football and other such things.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
I don't know but I'm willing to bet it will benefit Eli in some way.
what.. are you on you're period?
The_Darkest_Red
Member
Sucks how we both went into this season with optimism and are now completely broken a handful of games in.
Didn't realize there was a new thread...
Generally more data points is a good thing for predictive analytics. Yes, that even applies for preseason games. It just depends on how the model is built to incorporate that preseason data and how it eventually fades it out over the course of the season as the data becomes stale.
ELO is doing similar things in that it takes a prior season and uses that to some degree to build a foundation of a beginning rating for the current season. At least in the way 538 uses it. Teams can be wildly different from season to season, so does this make anymore sense then using preseason stats?
Really, using the preseason stats should build you a baseline of expected performance, and as more and more data is added to the model, the predictions should become more accurate. If they don't you probably have a flawed model or data that doesn't accurately reflect what is happening on the field. You have to start somewhere basically.
Generally more data points is a good thing for predictive analytics. Yes, that even applies for preseason games. It just depends on how the model is built to incorporate that preseason data and how it eventually fades it out over the course of the season as the data becomes stale.
ELO is doing similar things in that it takes a prior season and uses that to some degree to build a foundation of a beginning rating for the current season. At least in the way 538 uses it. Teams can be wildly different from season to season, so does this make anymore sense then using preseason stats?
Really, using the preseason stats should build you a baseline of expected performance, and as more and more data is added to the model, the predictions should become more accurate. If they don't you probably have a flawed model or data that doesn't accurately reflect what is happening on the field. You have to start somewhere basically.
Sweeney Tom
Banned
*BOB slinks out of room, head down*
The Squicken cycle
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Two squickens from the same team.
Alligatorjandro
Banned
What is an actual squicken anyway
Coldnoodle
Member
Nothing wrong with being a Squicken.
4 is too high. I am not saying the Eagles are good. This is why the stats like Philly
-Lost on road to good not great Atlanta in a game decided by placekicking (this matters)
-Ugly loss to Dallas but defense played well (by EPA)
-Beat Jets on the road by 7 with NYJ getting late/meaningless scores (this matters)
-Loss to average WAS team on final play. Placekicking again an issue but not explanative.
-Beat bad NOLA team soundly. Good teams beat bad teams by lots of points
SRS has Philly as 10th best team. These systems seek to be predictive. What's the point of a system that tells you what already happened? And if they are wrong? Hopefully smart people working on them make them better.
The understanding of placekicking has been huge. Football teams are basically 52 (or 43) players playing against an opponent, and 1 guy trying to beat par. The measurement is even more exact than batter vs pitcher
Coincidence? The entire organization is a clown show at this point. Bumbling their way to mediocrity.
i'd be happy to do the threads and I have the time and photoshop to do things, just need the writing and quips from someone else.
The_Darkest_Red
Member
Serious question, do you really like Tom or do you just say that to mess with us?
Good post. And I agree that more data is better than less data. However, it definitely feels like FPI is weighing preseason "success" much heavier than they should be. Remember that following the preseason, the Eagles were a trendy Super Bowl pick and that seems to be reflected in FPI ranking the Eagles as the 4th best team in the league.
FO and ELO have the Eagles in the 12-15 range, which seems more reasonable.
its like when you fuck your cousin, but a squirrel fucks a chicken, all inbreeding
Limited Edition
Banned
ATL @ NO - No contest.
CIN @ BUF - Red Rifle goes hunting.
DEN @ CLE - Noddle arm gets bailed out again.
CHI @ DET - Really, who fucking cares? Trash game of the week.
HOU @ JAC - They can beat the Jags, right? *chug chug chug*
KC @ MIN - Minny is the better team.
MIA @ TEN - Miami is just bad.
WAS @ NYJ - Kirk gets Fitzmagic'd.
ARI @ PIT - Cardinals keep rolling.
CAR @ SEA - It's a toss up, really.
BAL @ SF - The failed Jersey Shore charter that coaches the 49ers gets punk'd again.
SD @ GB - Can't go against GB at home.
NE @ IND - Murder of the week.
NYG @ PHI - Bradford is no Eli.
CIN @ BUF - Red Rifle goes hunting.
DEN @ CLE - Noddle arm gets bailed out again.
CHI @ DET - Really, who fucking cares? Trash game of the week.
HOU @ JAC - They can beat the Jags, right? *chug chug chug*
KC @ MIN - Minny is the better team.
MIA @ TEN - Miami is just bad.
WAS @ NYJ - Kirk gets Fitzmagic'd.
ARI @ PIT - Cardinals keep rolling.
CAR @ SEA - It's a toss up, really.
BAL @ SF - The failed Jersey Shore charter that coaches the 49ers gets punk'd again.
SD @ GB - Can't go against GB at home.
NE @ IND - Murder of the week.
NYG @ PHI - Bradford is no Eli.
Alligatorjandro
Banned
Go get drunk you drunkard fuck
Been saying it a few years now: even with his faults he is the best QB of this generation
I put Rodgers as a bridge from Brady/Manning era to the next Luck/Wilson/Tannehill. Currently the best at the position
Edit: also add I quit hardcore fandom on Hoyers birthday. Fitting
My head is exploding trying to make sense of this...
Goro Majima
Kitty Genovese Member
Mech won't squicken, you guys are crazy.
Next summer he'll be back.
Next summer he'll be back.
Bye
That was the way the name came up. My college roommate had flash cards all over his room about the evolution of various species. I used to joke with him he was wasting his time. If evolution were real, given enough time, we'd see cool and useful genetic variants like tigers with flippers and a chicken with a squirrel's tail. When I had to create my online ID for Quake 3, that was the name I thought of
The_Darkest_Red
Member
Talk of evil and cheating aside Tom is a hell of a QB. I remember watching that offense in '07 and just feeling like there was almost literally no way they could be stopped. Just a well oiled machine that performed at a high level regardless of what your defense was or wasn't doing.
Honestly this season feels similar but with a slightly different system (the same one we saw last year). Brute efficiency is the best way I can describe it.
I hate the Patriots with every fiber of my being but Belichick is an incredible HC and Brady is one of the best QBs of all time. All that being said, I still think Rodgers is the best in the game currently in terms of talent.
The_Darkest_Red
Member
This... is an incredible story. Thank you for sharing!
we would have also accepted bye bitch.
That was the premise to why he did that in that scene... sorry you're incompetent to movies
Sviatoslav
Member
The Weeden era is over. Let the Cassel throwing fuckballs to Dez era begin!
Alligatorjandro
Banned
I think youve told this a couple times in your day, but the more the know the funnier lol
Alex Stroud
Banned
Simplistic. Clean. Best thread of the season thus far.
whats your fairweather guy