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NHL December 2016 |OT| Best Christmas Since '93

S

shadowkat

Unconfirmed Member
zroid said:
I don't know what to make of Toronto's xG numbers for the season. It's really strange how consistently they seem to outperform their corsi. Even in tonight's game, they got badly outshot and outpossessed, but according to score-adjusted xG the Leafs actually were better. Their season CF% is fine but it's nowhere near as good as their xGF%, and tonight was a prime example of why.
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My brain is translating XGF% as ex girlfriend %. I'm pretty sure that's not it.
 
D

dr.rocktopus

Banned
Bibeau in net today for Leafs <3

Avs you can feel better today

also xGF% models, while useful, are still just models beholden to the correlations and assumptions used. I don't know the specifics of the xGF% models but just speaking from another field where the validity of models are constantly picked apart by nerds
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Surprisingly from Botchford with some good insight into the whole Gallant firing dating back to a year ago:

From January, this was a bit regarding the influence data was having in how the Panthers made decisions on the ice:

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-4-43-39-pm

A year ago, right around US Thanksgiving, the Panthers ownership and front office team held a summit. The team was foundering. The Panthers were either at .500 or below, near the bottom of their division and there really wasn’t a lot of hope.

Even as far back as then, consideration was given to firing Gallant.

But the group came out of their meetings with a series of recommendations to help the coach. Some were analytics based, others simply common sense.

The most shrewd, and data driven, was breaking up Mitchell and Gudbranson who really were the worst possession pairing in the league. Together, their even strength shot-attempt differential was 40.8%.

It meant most games they looked like Alabama playing an FCS school and they weren’t the Roll Tide part of that equation.

For context, the worst regular defenceman in the league last year was Dan Girardi. His shot attempt differential was 41.7 per cent, the only one sub-42.

The numbers tend to over-complicate things. The reality is Mitchell-Gudbranson, as a thing, sucked and the coach didn’t seem to see it.

Another push from the front office, and maybe the one anyone could have come up with, was to marginalize Bolland.

People will always focus on analytics when it comes to the Panthers, but your great grandmother could have watched one Panthers game and told you Bolland was washed.

But Bolland was Gallant’s second line center, and it kept a ceiling on Trocheck, on the third.

To his credit, Gallant was open to the changes. He made them. Gudbranson played with Brian Campbell and it became one of the team’s best pairings. Bolland was scratched, demoted and within a couple of weeks, out of the league. Trocheck’s minutes immediately jumped.

All of it worked.

The Panthers went on a 17-3 run, including 12 straight Ws, paving the way to those 103 points. Gallant was a Jack Adams finalist.
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http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...and-why-the-media-is-wrong-about-the-panthers

The events line up with last year and makes more sense in retrospect.
 
S

Silver Arrows

Banned
dr.rocktopus said:
Bibeau in net today for Leafs <3

Avs you can feel better today

also xGF% models, while useful, are still just models beholden to the correlations and assumptions used. I don't know the specifics of the xGF% models but just speaking from another field where the validity of models are constantly picked apart by nerds
Click to expand...

you forget that often times, advanced stats are often used by nerds like zroid to make themselves feel smarter compared to the average pundit and sports fan

advanced stats should be used as a complimentary tool, the best way to determine someones skill is to actually, y'know, watch them play
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Silver Arrows said:
you forget that often times, advanced stats are often used by nerds like zroid to make themselves feel smarter compared to the average pundit and sports fan
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the fuck is wrong with you man. you don't know anything about me.

thanks for being an asshole, completely unprovoked though. quality post there.
 
F

Foggy

Member
Hahahahaha zroid's like the most mild-mannered person here and he's the advanced stats whipping boy for some reason. A lot of prominent advanced stats guys are smug nerds with giant chips on their shoulders, but zroid's about as casual as it comes.
 
S

Silver Arrows

Banned
Foggy said:
You worked yourself into a shoot, brother!

You gotta shoot the work before the work shoots you into a worked shoot. Jabroni.
Click to expand...

You guys know I'm generally a nice guy, I don't mean what I say. And I'm quick to apologize and make right.

So zroid, I'm sorry for assuming and making it out that I was an asshole.
 
V

Vyse24

Member
The Rangers announced that Raanta will be in goal again tonight against the Devils. Did something happen to Lundqvist that I missed?
 
P

Pikma

Banned
zroid said:
the fuck is wrong with you man. you don't know anything about me.

thanks for being an asshole, completely unprovoked though. quality post there.
Click to expand...
Hey hey hey

I'd edit this post if I were you

You don't want to be the next victim on Creeper's list
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Vyse24 said:
The Rangers announced that Raanta will be in goal again tonight against the Devils. Did something happen to Lundqvist that I missed?
Click to expand...
Yes. He's been worse than Antti Raanta.

Tonight will be the first time in a full decade that the Devils come into MSG and face someone other than Henrik Lundqvist (since Dec. 2006).

Meanwhile, the Coyotes claimed Josh Jooris off of waivers.
 
I

imBask

Banned
guys like Berkshire are exactly what Silver described tho. The description of a fucking dork paid to look at numbers and make bold claims for clicks
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
iLLmAtlc said:
AV is the master of creating goalie controversies!
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This is the second time under AV that Hank has sat for three straight games while healthy. The last time we ended up in the Stanley Cup Final.

This is probably the best possible way to help Hank lock in his focus right now, which is what he himself has been saying he's been lacking. The man's too competitive to not respond and up his game (in the long run).
 
U

Unhandled Exception

Member
The BSN avalanche writers were allllll about pointing at stats and swearing things would even out quickly. Zroid isn't that bad, but he did try to convince me that Barrie would flourish under a better system. He's even worse now, and that's saying a lot.
 
Z

zroid

Banned
19 & 21 said:
The BSN avalanche writers were allllll about pointing at stats and swearing things would even out quickly. Zroid isn't that bad, but he did try to convince me that Barrie would flourish under a better system. He's even worse now, and that's saying a lot.
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I do think Barrie would flourish in a good system. The question is is the system actually better? I thought Bednar would be a good coach based on his success in Cleveland but based on what we've seen he's basically been coaching the Avs like a poor man's Devils. That's like the exact opposite of what you want.

I feel bad for yall. I don't think the Avs are this bad, but there's no stats that lead me to believe they are going to get better right now, unless something changes.
 
U

Unhandled Exception

Member
It's far and away a better system than what Roy ran to this point. Whether or not it's right for this roster is the actual question, but frankly I don't think this roster could thrive under any coach. They're losers with a losing mentality these days, and our captain is where it starts.
 
F

Fata1moose

Banned
Avs need to purge the supporting cast of players this off season, that and Tim Army.

I don't necessarily want to trade Landeskog, but someone else should be Captain. Duchene preferably
 
Z

zroid

Banned
Bibeau is NOT ready for NHL starts. Don't see the point in giving him one now. Even if he's good tonight, there's little reason to believe he can be consistent at this level.

I hope he doesn't get lit up too badly
 
F

Fata1moose

Banned
zroid said:
Bibeau is NOT ready for NHL starts. Don't see the point in giving him one now. Even if he's good tonight, there's little reason to believe he can be consistent at this level.

I hope he doesn't get lit up too badly
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be too worried about that.
 
I

imBask

Banned
zroid said:
Bibeau is NOT ready for NHL starts. Don't see the point in giving him one now. Even if he's good tonight, there's little reason to believe he can be consistent at this level.

I hope he doesn't get lit up too badly
Click to expand...

against a pissed off Avs team too, oooofffff
 
G

Gunstar Ikari

Unconfirmed Member
Adam Pardy and Freddy Gaudreau down to Milwaukee.

I pray that this means Ellis is coming back soon so that Irwin can slide down to 3rd D and Granberg can disappear.
 
F

Fata1moose

Banned
imbask said:
Canucks are in the cup window dawg, they need that veteran
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
P

Pikma

Banned
zroid said:
I do think Barrie would flourish in a good system. The question is is the system actually better? I thought Bednar would be a good coach based on his success in Cleveland but based on what we've seen he's basically been coaching the Avs like a poor man's Devils. That's like the exact opposite of what you want.
Click to expand...

the fuck is wrong with you man. you don't know anything about my team's system

thanks for being an asshole, completely unprovoked though. quality post there.
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Kreider-Stepan-Zuccarello
Grabner-Hayes-Miller
Hrivik-Lindberg-Fast
Vesey-Pirri-Jensen

McDonagh-Girardi
Staal-Holden
Skjei-Klein

Raanta
 
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