Let's talk about what's going on right now.
-The Capitals were not outplayed during their west coast road trip. The Capitals lost every game out west, but it was more about bad puck luck than anything else. The Capitals out-attempted their three opponents overall 116-102 at even strength. The Capitals out-attempted both the Ducks and Kings by eight shot attempts. The losses stung, but it's undeniable that the Capitals played good hockey.
-The Capitals have seen their sky-high shooting percentages crater, but not their underlying play. According to RMNB's Peter Hassett, the Capitals have had only a minor drop in their offensive rates. As of Saturday, the Capitals' total shot attempts have fallen 4.3 percent. Expected goals (a function of shot volume and quality) have also dropped from 2.7 to 2.3, which is not insignificant, but both of those declines are dwarfed by the stark decline in shooting percentage. Before the bye week it was 10 percent. Now it's 7.7 percent. So there's been slightly lower offensive volume, but, more importantly, there's been a rash of bad puck luck.
-The Capitals have played a lot of games lately. Are the Capitals not trying hard enough or are they tired? The Capitals have played 12 games in the last 23 days. Out west, the Capitals switched time zones by three hours and played three games in four nights, including daylight savings Sunday morning, when the clocks jumped forward an hour.
-Alex Ovechkin will score again. The Russian machine (27) trails Sidney Crosby (35) for the league lead in goals by eight. Ovechkin, in his twelfth season pro, is experiencing the first double-digit goalless streak of his career, but he's not the only superstar struggling to score. The NHL is unlikely to see a 50-goal scorer this season for the first time since 2003-04 (in non-lockout-shortened seasons). So sure, Ovechkin's shot attempt rates are down and he may not score 40 goals this season, but it's still possible he could win the Richard Trophy anyway.
- The Capitals roster features ten 10-goal scorers. The Capitals feature one of the deepest rosters in the league, which includes four 20-goal scorers. That includes every forward on the Capitals' first line (Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, and Nicklas Backstrom).
- Andre Burakovsky is close to returning from a hand injury. Burakovsky, who has 11 goals in 52 games this season, skated on the team's third line consisting of Lars Eller and Marcus Johansson for most of the season and they were dominant together. When the Burracuda returns, he will bolster an already lethal forward corps.
-Braden Holtby is one of the league's best goaltenders. According to Corsica, Holtby has the second best even-strength save percentage (93.7%) among goalies that have played more than 30 games this season. The only goaltender that has been better is Carey Price (94.0%).
-The Capitals' power play is arguably better after the Kevin Shattenkirk trade. According to Peter Hassett, the Caps have had 20 percent increases in both scoring chance and expected goal rates since Shatty took over the PPQB1 spot.
The Washington Capitals are tied for first place in the entire league. Despite losing those four-straight games in regulation and being outscored in those games 17-6, the Capitals are tied for first in the standings (95) and lead in goal differential (plus-66).
- The Capitals play in the best division in hockey. The best three teams in the league are from the Metropolitan Division. That's why you feel that sweat running down your brow. The Capitals (95) are tied with the Penguins for first place in the division while they lead the Blue Jackets by only one standings point (94). If the Capitals were in the Atlantic Division, they'd lead the Canadiens by nine points (86) and the Senators by 11 (84).
- This is likely the most talented roster the Capitals have had in franchise history. This iteration of the Capitals got off to the second-best start in franchise history and could win the President's Trophy for a second year in a row. Though we know from experience, winning the Presidents' Trophy does not guarantee success (lost in first round of the playoffs in 2010 and lost in second round in 2016).
