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[jmizzal]

New Nintendo home console at E3 2016.
BELIEVE.

Isnt that the usual time frame?

 

[royalan]

If Smash and Mario Kart don't significantly boost sales.....might as well put a fork in it

The Wii U is trailing behind Gamecube by millions of units.

They had to lower their forecast by over 70%

Time to stop moving the goal post to [insert unreleased game here]. The fork's been put in it, pulled out, and the casserole's now cooling on the windowsill.

 

[Jomjom]

God damn.

Okay, I'm back on the "drop the gamepad" train. Drop that shit ASAP, sell the Wii U at $250, make a shit load of profit on each console sold (presumably), and hope for the best with Smash and Kart.

13 million units sold by the end of the gen. wooooo.

$250 won't do a thing. It's already $299 MSRP and often close or at $250 during sales. For it to sell it needs to go down to $199, especially if it's not going to come with the gamepad.

 

[Terrell]

On a full fiscal year basis, the Xbox division turned profitable starting with fiscal 2008 -- unless you believe they were lying in their financial statements, in which case you should probably contact the SEC.

Losses don't just disappear when a fiscal year is over. They're just not carried over on the books. The Xbox division has significant cumulative losses that a few good years don't make magically go away.

 

[User Tron]

On a full fiscal year basis, the Xbox division turned profitable starting with fiscal 2008 -- unless you believe they were lying in their financial statements, in which case you should probably contact the SEC.

The division was later reorganized to incorporate the wildly unprofitable Windows phone division, which has made it hard to discern how profitable the Xbox business is by itself. It would be rather absurd, however, to believe that Microsoft suddenly started losing money later in the generation as the cost of manufacturing the console drops faster than MSRP. That would be a first in this industry.

You're missing the point: Making profit a year or two doesn't make a division profitable. As you said due the inclusion of other division in the financial statements you can say how much they made in the end. The rest is speculation.

 

[PedroPanache]

Nintendo think it exists in a vacuum; that somehow it isn't competing directly against Sony, Microsoft, and to a certain extent, Steam. Their services suffer because they don't feel the need to match the competition, so we have instances where their digital eco-system not only lags far behind their competitors, it's also anti-consumer as well. If I have a choice between, say, buying a voucher for Steam or buying one for the eShop, I'm going to get better value for my money from Steam. Therefore, my eShop purchases are reserved for essential downloads, rather than loading up my account as I would with Steam.

Nintendo needs to do more to persuade consumers that the services they offer, with digital being absolutely paramount and essential this generation, value for money. I buy Steam/PSN vouchers on a whim, I won't do the same for the eShop just yet. I bought my Wii U in December, knowing that it's practically on life support, I have a lot of affection for the brand, but I also want value for money. Nintendo needs to realise they can't put their "Nintendo Tax" on games anymore, not when the competition is so fierce.

 

[Anticitizen One]

Nintendo probably won't go third party on there own. They will be acquired by a larger company.

 

[Gormless Noodle]

Nintendo just needs to ditch consoles. There's a future for them on dedicated handhelds, especially if they keep a lock on Japanese titles. There is no future for them in home consoles.

Not on handhelds either. If their next handheld system isn't a phone or doesn't at the very least have the functionality of the average tablet, no one will be interested in it. Handheld sales are declining overall in the West, as the report indicates, it's all drying up for them whichever way they turn. From here it's either adapt or die, no more Nintendo is doomed jokes, this is the real deal and the biggest crisis they ever faced I would say.

 

[Zinthar]

No, it was able to sell at a profit. But no, it wasn't profitable.
Or do you think that the Red Ring of Death didn't cost them every penny they earned for the first 3 years of the 360's lifespan, while they were still digging the division out of a gigantic deficit?

MS has this bad habit of killing its old console just as it starts making them money and taking another financial nosedive on the next console down the pipeline. And the division will never be profitable because of it.

The RROD was a $1.9 billion one-time writedown that they took in 2007. That doesn't change the fact that it was profitable from 2008 until now. It's possible that the writedown cost more than they earned during the generation, but that shouldn't be factored into a forward-looking decision on the value of the business.

The home console market available to Sony & Microsoft in this generation will likely be larger than during the last generation, largely thanks to Nintendo's relegation to being a non-factor this time around.

It'll be extremely hard to lose money (and this goes for both Sony & Microsoft this generation) when you're executing the razor blade business model with a razor that's roughly break-even from the start.

 

[Semajer]

Curious, what difference would a Direct make?

There's nothing more drastic they can do. Cut the price? Nope. Buy Call of Duty? Nope. More Mario? Umm..

Unfortunately, they can't just pull another January 2013 Direct out of their ass. That was a once in a generation kind of thing. If they have a Wii U Nintendo Direct this month, it'll probably just be more footage of previously announced games (mainly Donkey Kong and Mario Kart), rather than megaton announcement after megaton announcement like last year.

its too late

It's not that I think a panic Direct will improve anything. I just want some gameplay footage of SMTXFE, and X.

 

[watershed]

In some ways this seems like the first time Nintendo has fully acknowledged how fucked the Wii U is. No more lofty, unmeetable forecasts, no promises of hardware driving software, just the ugly truth.

 

[LeleSocho]

Nintendo probably won't go third party on their own. They will be acquired by a larger company.

Only Gaben can save us.

 

[Nirolak]

OP updated again.

Thanks Aquamarine.

 

[Delio]

I stopped you here because this is the only place Nintendo will go as a "3rd party." The userbase would be immediate and astronomical. They wouldn't give consoles a second glance and nor would they have a reason to. Nintendo on PS4 or XB1 would be a pipe dream and Nintendo would just go on to rule the universe on Android and iOS.

Do you think they would rule iOS and Android if they shifted there? I question that.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Nintendo probably won't go third party on there own. They will be acquired by a larger company.

The list of companies with that amount of capital + An interest in gaming + Corporate culture compatible with Nintendo's is absurdly short.

 

[Anticitizen One]

It's not that I think a panic Direct will improve anything. I just want some gameplay footage of SMTXFE, and X.

I think at this point you should expect those titles to either be cancelled or moved to another platform. the Wii U is a goner.

 

[Not]

Nintendo probably won't go third party on there own. They will be acquired by a larger company.

Nintendo probably won't go third party on there own.

there own.

there

You seem credible

 

[Sendou]

In some ways this seems like the first time Nintendo has fully acknowledged how fucked the Wii U is. No more lofty, unmeetable forecasts, no promises of hardware driving software, just the ugly truth.

Not really. Here they just explained why they decided to lower the forecasts. Come back on 30th for more.

I think at this point you should expect those titles to either be cancelled or moved to another platform. the Wii U is a goner.

I don't really think so. Wii U may not have sold much but generally the people that bought it are their core fanbase. The consumers that are early adopters of their hardware. If they want to release hardware in the future too they might do wise not to drop Wii U in a fashion that would make early adopters feel burned. Besides X is very far along by now. Moving it to their next home console (which probably still is at least 2-3 years away) isn't necessarily very efficient at all. Hard to say anything about FExSMT.

 

[AniHawk]

Nintendo probably won't go third party on there own. They will be acquired by a larger company.

what is your real-world suggestion for this scenario.

 

[Sandfox]

Isnt that the usual time frame?

They could probably reveal it sooner than that if they work out a good concept.

 

[nephilimdj]

The Wii U is trailing behind Gamecube by millions of units.

They had to lower their forecast by over 70%

Time to stop moving the goal post to [insert unreleased game here]. The fork's been put in it, pulled out, and the casserole's now cooling on the windowsill.

Still a game that sold 8million and has a massive cult following that seems to have a endless amount of new blood (most of my areas current smash bro players where not around 3 years ago)
I dont think anyone can deny that smash will help it massively, much more then wind waker did.

 

[Mpl90]

In some ways this seems like the first time Nintendo has fully acknowledged how fucked the Wii U is. No more lofty, unmeetable forecasts, no promises of hardware driving software, just the ugly truth.

Well, that's not false. Horrible truth, but still truth. XD

January 30th could be epic in many ways. Iwata said he will share short and mid-term plans, I'm very interested in the latter.

 

[Anth0ny]

$250 won't do a thing. It's already $299 MSRP and often close or at $250 during sales. For it to sell it needs to go down to $199, especially if it's not going to come with the gamepad.

$250 won't do a thing during holiday 2013.

$250 will do a thing when Smash and Mario Kart, the two biggest games the console has to offer, are released. Combine that with no gamepad, and Nintendo is making a solid profit on every console sold (instead of losing money @ $299 thanks to the gamepad).

Of course $199 is more desirable, but they're losing money like crazy here. they probably would lose money on every console sold. $250 is a sweet price point, especially considering the library will be pretty decent by the time Smash and Kart drop.

 

[Anticitizen One]

what is your real-world suggestion for this scenario.

Well I'm not a financial person but I would assume IF Nintendo did fall into a situation so dire that they would become 3rd party I would expect both Sony and Microsoft to make serious plays to acquire them if only for their legendary IP library. Activision and EA would put in similar bids. The only alternative is if they pull a Square and merge with another big Japenese Company (konami or capcom?) to stay viable

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Still a game that sold 8million and has a massive cult following that seems to have a endless amount of new blood (most of my areas current smash bro players where not around 3 years ago)
I dont think anyone can deny that smash will help it massively, much more then wind waker did.

Are they playing Brawl, Melee or Project M?

 

[Hermii]

This is sad. Expect new CEO, microtransactions galore, IOS games, on disc dlc, releasing unfinished games to patch them later, less polished first party titles and everything else that is evil. Nintendos first party output during Iwata has beenI probably the best ever.

 

[ash_ag]

i suggested this in the media create thread, but i wonder if nintendo could have two handheld lines. one would essentially by a hybrid and hook up to the tv. essentially a gamepad you can take with you. somehow get it out for $200 (wii u level graphics, more tablet-y).

the other one would be an inexpensive one. it'd be smaller and have games that require much smaller teams. a $100 device with $20 games at retail and a $200 device with $50 games at retail. the two would interact with each other somehow and both be out by the end of 2016.

i think they're right to aim for the family market, but software prices are awful. they could bring the game boy name back for the smaller one too, since it doesn't have the confusion (and maybe disinterest) that ds does.

also, the virtual console should be an actual thing that's supported by an decently sized internal team, working on and releasing roms on a steady schedule.

That could actually work. One could as well be a semi-rebranded 3DS, and the other a Wii U compatible machine. Some people are worried that by launching a new console in 2015, Nintendo might lose potential growth in 3DS for no reason -- yet at the same time, there needs to be a move in the Wii U front, and maintaining the home system doesn't seem too viable.

If Nintendo essentially supports 3DS for 5 more years as a budget / entry-level portable (that will surely get another Pokémon generation), and still introduces their next platform in 2015 (in the form of a portable Wii U -- also 3DS compatible), they will be able to breath a little from the current situation. Considering Wii U's low sales and cherry-picked library quality-wise, such platform will also be very attractive to the (many) non-Wii U owners.

Of course that all depends on how likely a ≥$200 system with a Wii U SoC is. Let's not forget that even on its current form, people debate that Wii U should drop the GamePad, and that's not possible for a handheld. I suppose that such platform won't suffer from big R&D costs (Wii U's streaming technology, for example, is readily available), but that's still one thing to consider.

Another risk lies in the branding of those two machines. If they embody a reform for Nintendo and fail, it will be a PR nightmare. It reminds a little of the replacement of the Game Boy brand from Nintendo DS. That went well, but it took a long while for Nintendo to confirm to the world the Game Boy brand is actually succeeded.

 

[L Thammy]

I don't know why people look at this and think "oh boy, now there'll be a panic response!" We've already seen the panic response. The fact is, the Wii U isn't turning it around. It was misconceived. The infrastructure that should have been there from the start was not.

Similarly,I don't get the whole "they need a new console right now" bit. Not sure if it's in this thread, but I've seen it in a lot of others. If Nintendo releases a new console right now it will fail, and all the games on it will fail, and all the money involved in it will go right down the toilet.

They need to invest, they need to play catch-up with everyone else, they need to communicate with third parties and acquiesce to their needs and wants. They need to bend over backwards for both consumers and potential partners. They need show that they are completely serious about a desire to change. Then, once they've built up a stronger position, they can release a new system.

 

[Sendou]

Well I'm not a financial person but I would assume IF Nintendo did fall into a situation so dire that they would become 3rd party I would expect both Sony and Microsoft to make serious plays to acquire them if only for their legendary IP library. Activision and EA would put in similar bids. The only alternative is if they pull a Square and merge with another big Japenese Company (konami or capcom?) to stay viable

I think he asked for a real-world suggestion.

 

[Not]

It's at least good to see Nintendo come back down to Earth a little. Their oblivious "nothing's wrong with the Wii U" mindset was really starting to bug me. A hundred to one NoA PR still won't admit it, though.

 

[Tookay]

Stop living in a conservative bubble, make aggressive strides to expand software development culture on a global scale, listen closer to third parties and the echoes of the market they are competing in as much as they like to think they're not, be attentive to rapidly changing world of technology and economics, and understand that an overwhelming majority of customers do not want to put down US$300 for an unappealing piece of hardware that has scarce releases of Super Mario in between shovelware when for an additional $200+ dollars they can get a system with significantly broader software and genre variety, routine software releases, and a strong promise of continued support into the future.

Nintendo exists on the same planet and in the same market as everybody else mingling in home/portable technology and software. This isn't the 90s, where a dedicated game machine that just does what it does and it's Sony or Sega or Nintendo or whatever is good enough. The way customers perceive and value both software and hardware has changed. The expectations have changed. The risks and rewards have changed. The development environment has changed. The economy has changed. The customer culture of buying hardware has changed. And all of these things have changed rapidly and dramatically over just the last few years.

Despite this Nintendo operates as if nothing has changed and they can keep playing the same game they've been playing for the better part of two decades, despite the competition they seem to deliberately ignore rapidly adapting and growing alongside the rest of the world. People do not want to buy a $300 Mario box. They don't want to buy this, and wait three/four/five months for the next noteworthy game, one that might not even be a franchise or genre they're interested in. Not everybody who likes Mario likes Zelda, or likes The Wonderful 101, or likes Metroid, or F-Zero, or everything else. And that just makes the situation worse, when someone can put that $300 towards another platform that's going to have far more software released far quicker.

It's an investment, for customers and shareholders, and at the moment Nintendo is a bad investment.

I'm not one to do this normally, but the only thing I have to add is "."

 

[Nirolak]

Well, that's not false. Horrible truth, but still truth. XD

January 30th could be epic in many ways. Iwata said he will share short and mid-term plans, I'm very interested in the latter.

I'm also curious about long term, but I suspect that will wait until the end of the fiscal year while they consider for some more time.

 

[Ecotic]

The 3DS never had its DS Lite moment; that perfect combination of an emerging lineup meeting sleek new hardware. The 3DS wasn't ever as ugly as the original DS so a newer, more attractive model wouldn't have the same effect. But the 3DS was never as attractive as the DS Lite either.

Struggling consoles need that moment of reinvention to cleanse gamers' minds. The PS3 Slim had a similar effect. I don't think the 3DS has ever gotten over its initial stigma as an expensive handheld with no games.

 

[Anticitizen One]

You seem credible

I've been saying Nintendo was heading down the wrong path for two years and even got banned a couple times for "being overtly negative about nintendo". There are plenty of gamers here who agree with me who remember when Nintendo was a great company pre-Iwata. Now that everyone is shit faced that the truth is finally coming out about Iwata's Nintendo I think my word is the one that's worth listening to. Certainly not Iwata, Reggie, or whatever spin doctor they've hired.

 

[fredrancour]

I don't know why people look at this and think "oh boy, now there'll be a panic response!" We've already seen the panic response. The fact is, the Wii U isn't turning it around. It was misconceived. The infrastructure that should have been there from the start was not.

Eh, I guess arguably, if they put shit into motion over the course of last year, the results may not be seen til this year. So their response to realizing they put out a product no one wants may not actually be visible yet, and they've been stuck riding out bad decisions because those are the only games that exist.

 

[ryanofcall]

Mario Kart won't do shit just like with 3D Land they have been spamming way too many Mario Kart games in a short period of time. Its just more of the same. Yawn inducing. By the time Smash Bros comes out hopefully most gamers have moved on to bigger and frankly better things. I really hope Nintendo learns a HARSH lesson for resting on their laurels.

I'm actually enjoying the huge amount of platformers. I'm actually tired of FPS tbh...
There has always been Mario Kart per system, that's probably never going to change.

 

[coldone]

$250 won't do a thing during holiday 2013.

$250 will do a thing when Smash and Mario Kart, the two biggest games the console has to offer, are released. Combine that with no gamepad, and Nintendo is making a solid profit on every console sold (instead of losing money @ $299 thanks to the gamepad).

Of course $199 is more desirable, but they're losing money like crazy here. they probably would lose money on every console sold. $250 is a sweet price point, especially considering the library will be pretty decent by the time Smash and Kart drop.

What about the un-sold inventory for 7M WiiUs ?. At this rate it will take 2 years for them to sell it. They can't simply store it in warehouses in China for that long. I see a dramatic price cut coming soon to clear up those units.

 

[Kintaro]

Do you think they would rule iOS and Android if they shifted there? I question that.

They would have unquestioned dominance. I mean, their entire company catalog released on these formats, enhanced to control and perform well on these machines plus they would continue to make new games as well (probably on the level of 3DS without the 3D). I honestly can't imagine how they wouldn't make an untold amount of money.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

The question is, is the WiiU even on track to sell the revised projection?

 

[Vibranium]

It's at least good to see Nintendo come back down to Earth a little. Their oblivious "nothing's wrong with the Wii U" mindset was really starting to bug me. A hundred to one NoA PR still won't admit it, though.

Good old Scott Moffit and his horrible PR mouth machine. It'd be nice to see that guy instead start aggressively advertising awesome deals on software rather than talking up how great the Wii U is.

 

[GamerSoul]

Not on handhelds either. If their next handheld system isn't a phone or doesn't at the very least have the functionality of the average tablet, no one will be interested in it. Handheld sales are declining overall in the West, as the report indicates, it's all drying up for them whichever way they turn. From here it's either adapt or die, no more Nintendo is doomed jokes, this is the real deal and the biggest crisis they ever faced I would say.

Yea their next handheld needs to have more functionality to keep up with other mobile devices. And Nintendo please update that damn web browse next time.

 

[SmokyDave]

You seem credible

Indeed. Who on earth mixes up there / their / they're?!

It almost as bad as not using a full stop at the end of a sentence.

 

[Sandfox]

Well I'm not a financial person but I would assume IF Nintendo did fall into a situation so dire that they would become 3rd party I would expect both Sony and Microsoft to make serious plays to acquire them if only for their legendary IP library. Activision and EA would put in similar bids. The only alternative is if they pull a Square and merge with another big Japenese Company (konami or capcom?) to stay viable

I think it would be kinda interesting to see Sony or Microsoft buy Nintendo only to realize that those games wouldn't have anywhere near the same selling power on their consoles.

 

[zhao3gold]

There are so many "however" in the Iwata's official explanation. He must be quite disappointed.

 

[ninjarr]

At the heart of it, while I want to see Nintendo succeed, they shouldn't if they don't deserve to (online infrastructure, game diversity, performance/quality). If that means getting their ass kicked for a little while until they figure out what to do, then that's exactly what they need.

The thing about comparing Nintendo to other companies in this situation is that they have absolutely immense talent when it comes to producing video games. Marketing, finance, culture, etc -- eh, maybe not so much, but they are goddamn brilliant when it comes to game design and game production. We all know that ultimately this is what they will depend on to either rise from mediocrity in the console market or survive extinction in the software industry.

Either way, it means good, solid Nintendo in my future and I'm happy about that.

Sorry about your losses and stresses, Nintendudes, if any of you are feeling it.

 

[maquiladora]

Sticking with that 9 million forecast for the Wii U until now was absolute insanity. How could any investor take any future projections from them seriously now under the current leadership?

 

[Lord Azrael]

I would like Iwata to stick around as PR but the man really needs to relinquish his leadership already. That investor's meeting is going to be one hell of a ride...

 

[Delio]

They would have unquestioned dominance. I mean, their entire company catalog released on these formats, enhanced to control and perform well on these machines plus they would continue to make new games as well (probably on the level of 3DS without the 3D). I honestly can't imagine how they wouldn't make an untold amount of money.

See my BIG problem with phone gaming is the controls. I really dont want to carry a pad accessory to play stuff like that on my phone. I'd want Nintendo to make sure the controls were as tight as possible if it came to that point. I do agree tho that I doubt they will go to MS/Sony at all and basically just go mobile.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Holy shit.

 

[Lumyst]

Wow, seeing the numbers and then the clinical explanation behind them in that follow up release. All I can say is that I hope Nintendo can create products that lots of people want, in the future. Because, what good is it to burn their money away with no response from consumers. Or hell, burn away the money of retailers and third parties who dare to support and carry those products. That's the scary thing to me, do they have the ability to make products that people desire, and are there enough people to take note of and desire those products, in order to survive as a business.