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[Nintendo] Shigeru Miyamoto: "You need to sell 30 million copies to be considered a big hit"

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ReyBrujo

Member
Don't read too much into that statement, though. It's just a categorization for "big hit", games selling less than that are not "failures" per se nor they aim at selling 30m for every game. It's not as if TotK is a failure because it sold 20m, it's just into their "big hit" category. He then puts Wii Fit as an example, their surveys in Japan showed they would sell about 6 million units domestically but they also made projections in case it flopped heavily (he mentions 300k worldwide as example). And those are the numbers they gave Iwata, the game could sell 6m in Japan alone but could also sell 300k worldwide and, I guess, they had to make the game profitable selling 300k only (in other words, if they couldn't make it profitable selling 300k only they might not have launched it under a different CEO, let's remember Iwata was all about taking risks).

it's Miyamoto. If the man says it takes 30 million copies sold for it to be considered worth his (and his team's) time than that's the bar set at Nintendo.
You are probably being ironic but in any case, he never said that.
 
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Woopah

Member
You're the only one not foaming at the mouth while misconstruing the sentiment of the interview.

Congrats.

He's not saying all titles have to hit 30 million sold he's saying they need to want to make huge hits and then foster an environment where titles can grow, if given time and the creativity to expand.

Also, do the math.

If they need 1-2 titles to hit 30 million in five years, they're fine with 3-4 hitting 10-15 million sold in 2-3 years.

As you said, they publish by far more than their contemporaries. If ten percent of those titles land very well, it covers the cost of the numerous other titles that don't reach as far.
Exactly, they are always going to have different sales expectations for different titles.

Looking to 2025, they know Prime 4 won't sell as well as Pokémon Legends ZA.
Well unlike PlayStation, Nintendo doesn’t pretend one of their franchises is a major hit.
Which one are they pretending?
Only game i can think of that can achieve it is pokemon or mario kart, lets be honest animal crossing only made it because of covid
Pokémon hasn't done it in a long long time. List of games from this millennium are:

New Super Mario Bros.
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Sports Resort
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
BOTW
Mario Kart 8 DX
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Animal Crossing: New Horizons

They should cancel all Zelda titles then since they're obviously struggling to be hits or are straight up failures by that metric. Maybe they're just fine with selling failures? Wonder how much they pay for the development of these titles. I've heard some studios love to make horror movies which can't hope to compete with the revenue numbers of other films, but are so dirt cheap to produce that the profits look really nice.
That's not what he meams. He doesn't expect 49/50 games they release to be failures.

BOTW is still over 30 million though.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
Not all games can sell that much I doubt Miyamoto expects all games out the gate to hit that number. That’s probably their internal milestone for runaway success I’m sure something much lower is ok for repeat franchise releases. Just wish they would dust off F-Zero and Starfox. Arms should get a sequel
 
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If any one of those companies have put the same quality of service as Valve, then I'll accept their "greed". It's why I keep Steam for the long run, it's why I invested in a $4000 Gaming PC for it. Let's not get disingenuous here, greed does not mean you are entitled to my money or purchase nor does it indicate any seal of quality.
Every corporation is greedy. Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony, Apple, etc. All of them. Yes, even Valve.

If you really think that there are corporations that are more greedy than others, then you were successfully bamboozled by marketing and PRf any
 

Zannegan

Member
You're the only one not foaming at the mouth while misconstruing the sentiment of the interview.

Congrats.

He's not saying all titles have to hit 30 million sold he's saying they need to want to make huge hits and then foster an environment where titles can grow, if given time and the creativity to expand
.
Yep. It's pretty clear, even from machine-translated snippets of a longer interview, that 30m is aspirational, not the minimum bar for success. I mean, he's defining big hit as something that can keep the company going if they only have one every 3-5 years.

It's sad and a little scary, like people legit can't read. Or maybe it's the age-old problem of folks just reading the title and skipping the content before commenting. Either way, it's leading to some weirdly hyperbolic reactions in here.

I guess the idea 1 million sales is considered a "failure" because it only breaks even could be mildly controversial, but going by the comments in any sales thread, most would apply that standard to any AAA project.
 
Not all games can sell that much I doubt Miyamoto expects all games out the gate to hit that number.

This is what he says. Sounds like 1-2 games per generation.

Miyamoto: If we can have one big hit every three to five years, we'll be fine. In that sense, if all our employees think about "creating a big hit" every day, we'll be fine.
 

Hudo

Member
If any one of those companies have put the same quality of service as Valve, then I'll accept their "greed". It's why I keep Steam for the long run, it's why I invested in a $4000 Gaming PC for it. Let's not get disingenuous here, greed does not mean you are entitled to my money or purchase nor does it indicate any seal of quality.

Again: Every corporation is greedy. Some may be more "in-your-face", others hide it better behind marketing. But some people on this board and in the populace in general seem to build some kind of parasocial relationship with a brand just because some CEO once said something nice or just because they offer services that should be standard anyway. In the case of Valve: Only after Australia began pushing for some sort of right to return, Valve relented. So it's not like they're chasing after being customer friendly. They're assholes as well. They just market themselves better.

Corporations aren't your friends. You might think that some services and deals they're offering are worth your money and that's fine. But somehow trying to present them as some sort of "friendly entities" is shortsighted at best and dangerous at worst. And that is my point.
 
Again: Every corporation is greedy. Some may be more "in-your-face", others hide it better behind marketing. But some people on this board and in the populace in general seem to build some kind of parasocial relationship with a brand just because some CEO once said something nice or just because they offer services that should be standard anyway. In the case of Valve: Only after Australia began pushing for some sort of right to return, Valve relented. So it's not like they're chasing after being customer friendly. PThey're assholes as well. They just market themselves better.

Corporations aren't your friends. You might think that some services and deals they're offering are worth your money and that's fine. But somehow trying to present them as some sort of "friendly entities" is shortsighted at best and dangerous at worst. And that is my point.
The only people who believe the bolded are either astroturfers are corporate shills. No normal thinking person would assume this. At best this is a strawman. I buy most 90% of my games on sale save for a few that's worth my money (e.g. Baldurs Gate 3). So that offsets any shenanigans Steam will/may attempt to do. We can still resort to "alternatives" should the inevitable happen. So let's not make this a a one way street where the "man" fucks us over.
 

efyu_lemonardo

May I have a cookie?
Yep. It's pretty clear, even from machine-translated snippets of a longer interview, that 30m is aspirational, not the minimum bar for success. I mean, he's defining big hit as something that can keep the company going if they only have one every 3-5 years.

It's sad and a little scary, like people legit can't read. Or maybe it's the age-old problem of folks just reading the title and skipping the content before commenting. Either way, it's leading to some weirdly hyperbolic reactions in here.

I guess the idea 1 million sales is considered a "failure" because it only breaks even could be mildly controversial, but going by the comments in any sales thread, most would apply that standard to any AAA project.
The controversial parts are not about having a 30 million seller every 3-5 years, but the parts where he says all developers should think about the next big hit every day, and the emphasis he puts on profit. None of this is entirely incorrect, but it's strange hearing it from someone like Miyamoto who's not a business man.

if all our employees think about "creating a big hit" every day, we'll be fine.

if it breaks even, we should consider it a failure

if there's no profit and we're just breaking even, then it's just tiring, right?

I don't make things or do things just to get my money's worth
 
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Zannegan

Member
The controversial parts are not about having a 30 million seller every 3-5 years, but the parts where he says all developers should think about the next big hit every day, and the emphasis he puts on profit. None of this is entirely incorrect, but it's strange hearing it from someone like Miyamoto who not a business man.
That's a fair point. Still, from his own words, he seems to use the goal as a motivation to achieve quality rather than a guiding light in game design.
 

Heimdall_Xtreme

Hermen Hulst Fanclub's #1 Member
Only four titles have been awarded the Miyamoto seal of quality:

- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (2017) - 61.97 million
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons (2020) - 45.36 million
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018) - 34.22 million
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (2017) - 31.85 million

fBicdJRegLYiI.webp


More informations: https://famiboards.com/threads/miya...years-well-be-fine-interview-with-itoi.10155/

Do you agree with Miyamoto's assessment?
Animal Crossing had its success due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, and it was the game that saved people from staying home.
 

DKPOWPOW

Member
This translation seems off, or perhaps Miyamoto has just lost his touch. Who knows. From what I gather + common sense it's like...


They want their teams to envision the game they are making to become a Big Hit. Every game, because then they are not held back as much by mental limitations.

Developing the game like it's ok if the game sells one million, and being of that mindset is not ok. Because then you become complacent.

They want you to think everything you are making has the potential to be a Big Hit. Even if only one or 2 games does that in 5 years. Doesn't matter, they want you to realize the potential of the game you are working on.

At least, that's how I would figure what he means.
 

BlackTron

Member
This translation seems off, or perhaps Miyamoto has just lost his touch. Who knows. From what I gather + common sense it's like...


They want their teams to envision the game they are making to become a Big Hit. Every game, because then they are not held back as much by mental limitations.

Developing the game like it's ok if the game sells one million, and being of that mindset is not ok. Because then you become complacent.

They want you to think everything you are making has the potential to be a Big Hit. Even if only one or 2 games does that in 5 years. Doesn't matter, they want you to realize the potential of the game you are working on.

At least, that's how I would figure what he means.

Quicker translation: Miyamoto wants teams to shoot for the stars, but landing on the moon is acceptable. As long as a few reach the stars here and there, or DK shows up with the baseball bat
 
I don't adhere to the same standards. I'd say a game (series) like Splatoon is a huge hit, even if they didn't reach 30 million sales on any single entry.

However, I think this interview is more about striving for excellence, rather than settle for mediocrity with a "this is good enough" mentality. And going through the paces is probably the wrong way to go about things in a creative industry like game development. He even says that they want to foster an environment where ideas evolve and grow over time. So maybe it's more like "eventually this game (series) might become a big hit."
 

efyu_lemonardo

May I have a cookie?
That's a fair point. Still, from his own words, he seems to use the goal as a motivation to achieve quality rather than a guiding light in game design.
It's not entirely clear. At one point Itoi seems to point out that a good experience that breaks even can be ok. Remember, this is the man who made Mother - he's the definition of an auteur. And Miyamoto answers that he doesn't necessarily agree with Itoi's perspective. To me, that's the controversial part, since it's coming from Miyamoto and not a business executive.

Edit: new translation from ManaByte ManaByte is miles apart from the old and puts this matter to rest, imo.
 
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ManaByte

Gold Member
Machine translation, could be wrong tho

It's Google translate. Don't use that for translation anymore. It's terrible. AI does a better job:


Miyamoto: Every year, I speak at the new employee seminar, and there’s something I always say. When it comes to what kind of company Nintendo is, I say, “It’s a company supported by hit products.”

Itoi: Oh.

Miyamoto: If we have one big hit every three to five years, we can manage. In that sense, if all employees think only about “creating a big hit” every day, we can make it work.

Itoi: That’s great! (laughs) It’s so clear and straightforward.

Everyone: (laughs)

Miyamoto: While keeping that in mind, we go about our daily tasks. We should always be on the lookout for something that could lead to a big hit, so we don’t miss any opportunities.

Itoi: Do you say this to new employees, Miyamoto-san? Since when have you been saying it?

Miyamoto: For about 10 years now.

Itoi: That’s great! And since Nintendo actually produces big hits, it’s not just a dream, which makes it interesting.

Miyamoto: Exactly. It’s because we’re aiming for it that it happens.

Itoi: At Nintendo, a figure like one million units isn’t considered a big hit, right?

Miyamoto: That’s right.

Itoi: It’s like, “Oh, it only sold a million?” (laughs). So, in your mind, how many units roughly constitute a big hit?

Miyamoto: About 30 million.

Everyone: (gasps)

Itoi: That’s what I thought (laughs). That’s interesting. So, when a project is in motion, you can roughly gauge its potential, like “This could hit 30 million” or “This might be around 480,000,” right? You have to think on that scale.

Miyamoto: Yes. It’s not exactly a gamble, but there’s a sense of it being one way or the other. For example, a common example I use is Wii Fit. Since it was themed around exercise, market research in Japan suggested it could sell around 6 million units. But there was also the possibility it might not be noticed at all, and if it failed, it might only sell around 300,000 units worldwide. So, back then, I discussed with Iwata-san how many units it might sell. The minimum failure would be 300,000 units. But if it managed to sell a million, then we wouldn’t know how much it could sell beyond that. The potential range was that wide.

Itoi: So, it had potential, but its success depended on the mood of the initial buyers.

Miyamoto: That’s right. If everyone wants it, it might sell 30 million copies worldwide. But if it only sells 300,000 at first, no one will want it.

Itoi: I see (laughs).

Miyamoto: We’ve been dealing with such things for a long time, so if we’re going to do it, we should swing the bat with all our might.

Itoi: Swing away, then.

Miyamoto: Don’t try to adjust to curveballs.

Itoi: Rather than going for safe profits.

Miyamoto: Exactly. This is a subtle topic, so it’s hard to express, but there’s something called the break-even point. As companies become more corporate, they start to value the break-even point. But I really dislike that way of thinking. For example, if selling 1 million copies covers the development costs, they say to spend 5% on advertising. I understand that. But if you spend 200% on advertising, you might sell 100 times more. So, what is the break-even point then?

Itoi: Ah (laughs).

Miyamoto: If you barely exceed the break-even point and end up breaking even, all that’s left is “I’m tired.”

Everyone: (Laughs)

Miyamoto: We work hard not just to break even, but to sell a lot, make a big hit, and say, "I can’t stop laughing."

Everyone: (Laughs)

Miyamoto: “Well, that’s why we’re working, so if we just break even, we should consider it a failure. But somehow, everyone talks as if breaking even is the goal.”

Itoi: “Hmm, in today’s society, how would that be? I think many people would consider breaking even a good experience.”

Miyamoto: “Is that so? But if we just break even without profit, we’re just tired. We didn’t work for that, and the people working with us would feel the same. That’s why I don’t give half-hearted praise to my team. It’s because we feel good working together when we sell a lot.”

Itoi: “Ah, I see.”

Miyamoto: “Even if it was tough, if we sell a lot and it becomes a topic, everyone is happy.”

Itoi: “Yes, yes.”

Miyamoto: “By repeating that, we build trust, and if we do it several times, we can ask for unreasonable things. So, everyone aims high and tries to get closer each time. Even if we don’t reach it this time, we’ll try again next time!”

Itoi: That’s almost like Eikichi Yazawa (a famous Japanese rock musician).

Everyone: (laughs)

Miyamoto: Then, let’s wave the towel like this (laughs).

Itoi: A different kind of Eikichi Yazawa (laughs). In other words, if you don’t aim high, it’s boring, right?

Miyamoto: Exactly. It’s not interesting otherwise.

Itoi: Surprisingly, that simple idea is often forgotten. People who are just greedy are only being greedy.

Miyamoto: Yes, yes. I’m afraid of being seen as just greedy. It’s not about being greedy; if you don’t always think that way, you’ll miss opportunities when they arise.

Itoi: Ah, even though there’s a chance for a big hit.

Miyamoto: While preparing various things, there are moments when you think, “Huh? This might be a hit.” You can sense those things very early on. But if you only think about it in terms of greed or stabilizing revenue, you’ll miss it.

Itoi: That’s right. If you’re only thinking about greed, you’ll prioritize not losing money. It inevitably leads to a break-even point mindset.

Miyamoto: Exactly. Missing out on something that could be a hit is the most dangerous thing, I think. One of our strengths is that we’ve been able to nurture those opportunities well.

Itoi: For that, everyone needs to be aware of aiming for a 30 million unit hit.

Miyamoto: That’s right.
 

Synless

Member
Miyamoto went senile years ago, he should have retired after the gamecube, one horrible decision after another. he is a hindrance to nintendo at this point. the dude cant even navigate a 3d space. the most overrated hack in gaming, on par with kojima
Dude, stfu. Guy is more talented on his worst days in his senile years than you will be on your best days in your prime.

You fucking wish you could run a business 1/10000 as well as he has and continues to do.
 

Bridges

Member
Now think about how the Wii U only sold 13 million units in its lifetime. Literally impossible for them to achieve this even if they had a 100% attach rate. All those Wii U ports weren't only for more money, I bet pride was involved. Those teams never even had a chance to be deemed a success for that entire generation
 

bender

What time is it?
People twist themselves into knots trying to hate on Nintendo. Nintendo utilizes all sorts of budgets sizes to publish games to keep their platform portfolios full and the next new release right around the corner. I'd argue they do this better than anyone else. And they of course have different determinations for success for the next Mario versus the next WarioWare.
 
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AngelMuffin

Member
Nintendo’s margins are better than the other 2 since their development budgets are often fraction of other AAA games. They still make bank on games that sell over a few million copies.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
People twist themselves into knots trying to hate on Nintendo. Nintendo utilizes all sorts of budgets sizes to publish games to keep their platform portfolios full and the next new release right around the corner. I'd argue they do this better than anyone else. And the of course have different determinations for success for the next Mario versus the next WarioWare.

For me, as a platform holder Nintendo is the best by a long shot.

If you are a fan of their games in the slightest you can guarantee you're going to get some amazing games through a consoles life cycle.
 

ProtoByte

Weeb Underling
I don't think it really works that way. There's been a huge increase in third party software sales on Switch since 2017, but that didn't prevent first party sales from growing as well.
Has there?
And the Switch came out in 2017 coming off the Wii U. Increasing from that is easy, but what are you talking about when you say this? Which games?

And it definitely does work that way.
 

nial

Member
I appreciate that they still fund games like Xenoblade and Metroid knowing they will never come close to that. Sony killed the Day's Gone IP.
Sony also funded Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart while the 2016 game sold less than Days Gone, and big budget sequels to Helldivers and Astro Bot Rescue Mission, both of which didn't even pass the 2M mark. Until Dawn is getting another chance at the spotlight with the remake this year, despite the original game only selling 4M units. Death Stranding, the 4M seller that came out the same year as Days Gone (7M), is getting a sequel next year.
Man, if I could have a cent for every post praising Nintendo, while at the same time, cherry picking examples just so they can shit on Sony.
 
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Woopah

Member
Has there?
And the Switch came out in 2017 coming off the Wii U. Increasing from that is easy, but what are you talking about when you say this? Which games?

And it definitely does work that way.
What I'm saying is that Nintendo's first party sales aren't caused by a lack of games form other publishers.

Instead, an increase in third party support makes the platform more attractive, which makes the overall software marker bigger so Nintendo has more people to sell to.

There's more titles competing for attention on Switch than any of their previous platforms. But that hasn't been a negative for them:

6OoBxdS.jpeg


Basically if you removed all the third party games on Switch, then Nintendo's first party sales wouldn't go up, they'd go down. Likewise an increase in third party games leads to an increase in first party sales.

Hope that clarifies things
 

justiceiro

Marlboro: Other M
Myamoto is a designer and he thinks in terms of satisfying the consumers. It's not about creating art, it's about creating something people want to buy and play. Even in the Wii days he used to say that making games you would play is easy, compared to making games for people different from you to enjoy.

It sounds like a ridiculous figure, but he's thinking about long term here. If you think about breaking even when creating games, you will eventually get burned out, feeling like you aren't really getting nowhere. You see this a lot of those Kickstarter projects that finish one game and the studio then find themselves on hot water, because the money they had only paid for the one single game they made.

Also, his point about recognizing if a game has potential from the very beginning is really good. Like, instead of pushing their own ideas and agendas, they check if the game is actually good before deciding how big of a push the game deserves. Their games are not perfect, but they rarely give a big push for a game that is not really that fun to play.
 

Kataploom

Gold Member
Greed? Out of the three, Nintendo is the greediest, how hypocrite.
Well, they're a company, literally greedy by mere nature. The thing is if the greed makes you more stupid or smarter to get the money in short and long term and the quality the provide is a good long short and long term revenue driver, which is the smart way to run a business
 
What other Non-Nintendo games have the “Miyamoto Seal of Quality”
the vaunted MSoQ lol
Gran Theft Auto for sure
Skyrim I’m pretty sure


Also if a game hits 30 million can we put a little Miyamoto sticker somewhere on the games cover art? Like the includes Dante stickers?
 

midnightAI

Banned
Well unlike PlayStation, Nintendo doesn’t pretend one of their franchises is a major hit.
PlayStation aren't the ones saying they have to sell 30 million for their games to be a big hit
(And this is the company that plump 200-300million into certain games)
 

Zannegan

Member
PlayStation aren't the ones saying they have to sell 30 million for their games to be a big hit
(And this is the company that plump 200-300million into certain games)
"Big hit," defined as the kind of game that can keep the company alive for 3-5 years, not the bar for a worthwhile project.

no you do not
Read, dagnabbit.
 
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What I'm saying is that Nintendo's first party sales aren't caused by a lack of games form other publishers.

Instead, an increase in third party support makes the platform more attractive, which makes the overall software marker bigger so Nintendo has more people to sell to.

There's more titles competing for attention on Switch than any of their previous platforms. But that hasn't been a negative for them:

6OoBxdS.jpeg


Basically if you removed all the third party games on Switch, then Nintendo's first party sales wouldn't go up, they'd go down. Likewise an increase in third party games leads to an increase in first party sales.

Hope that clarifies things
This graph doesn't align to what is reported on the Wikipedia sales list though. If you were to add up sales of Nintendo vs non-Nintendo published games in the top 93 games it's probably 75%+ Nintendo sales.

I guess since basically every single Nintendo game that exists on the Switch is in the top 93, adding up everything below 93 together adds up to a significant number?
 

Woopah

Member
This graph doesn't align to what is reported on the Wikipedia sales list though. If you were to add up sales of Nintendo vs non-Nintendo published games in the top 93 games it's probably 75%+ Nintendo sales.

I guess since basically every single Nintendo game that exists on the Switch is in the top 93, adding up everything below 93 together adds up to a significant number?
Because Wikipedia is not an accurate source of sales information (I can go into some exact reasons if you want).

What is accurate is the information Nintendo reports to investors.
 

Arsic

Loves his juicy stink trail scent
Why? I miss when a million was a huge number. This is why we don't get too many B tier games.
If I read that right they only need one game like that every 3-5 years. The rest is made with budgets and different scopes to reflect just that.

No way Nintendo thinks Luigi Mansion 2 HD will move 30 million.

But when they put out a new Mario, Zelda, Mario kart, or smash it HAS to so they can keep being profitable to make all the other shit they do.
 
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