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[Celine]

So does Nintendo keep making games with the same mascot character because they always sell, or are they the only games available therefore it's all the console/handheld owners can buy?

Using known brand lessen the risk, yes.
However in case if Mario he is more a "face that rappresent Nintendo quality" than a character otherwise he could not have survived the eighties or nineties unscatched.
Mario and co are a coat of paint over the gameplay Nintendo create (if Mario characters fits into the universe of the game otherwise they create new characters like with Splatoon).


Nintendo games of course aren t the only ones a owner can buy on their platforms (even on WiiU) however they are the most likely to be bought.

 

[Oblivion]

Lots of good stuff in there. Thanks for posting.

I'm surprised Super Mario Galaxy sold more than Brawl and SM3DL sold more than NSMB2.

 

[Sandfox]

You are mistaken.
Million selling software is showing that amid its lifespan 3DS is already past GC and is going to quickly surpass SNES and GBA.
That s despite handheld having notoriously lower attach rate compared to home console.
However is going to be always more appearent looking at the total software sales that third party sales took a hit due to the fact that the total number of releases at retail is going to be lower.

Given how old the numbers seem to be the 3DS has certainly jumped at least one spot.

 

[The perfect Dark]

The downward trend from NES>SNES>N64>GC>WiiU has got to be concerning. If the Wii was propped up by an unsustainable audience, it seems like Nintendo loses 10 million or so core fans every generation.

I keep hearing this every week but I don't think it's concerning. Almost everyone forgets that Nintendo didn't have any real competitors until the Playstation. Now there's MS and Sony. It's pretty normal actually.


edit: And where is the Wii in your post?

 

[gingerbeardman]

Donkey Kong 64 5.27
Diddy Kong Racing 4.88

Why are there no sequels to these 2 games Nintendo? Unacceptable!

I wonder how many Diddy Kong Racing DS sold?

 

[Madao]

So you wouldn't for example count Arkham Origins on Wii U to the total of Arkham Origins sales, but instead count it as a separate game?

Wait, I got a better example - Deus Ex Director's Cut. You wouldn't count the DC sales on Wii U separate from the other 2 platforms, that got the Director's Cut?

Or Rayman Legends - there are major differences between Rayman Legends on Wii and Rayman Legends on the other platforms.

Or Silent Hill Shattered Memories on Wii.

i was trying to do the opposite, combine OoT with OoT 3D.

the other guy was separating the OoT releases while combining the TP releases to say TP was the best selling Zelda because TP was the same while OoT was different.

i also prefer to combine all games when it is the same base game. true remakes like the Pokemon remakes would be the exception but remasters are still the same game as the original at the core.

 

[allan-bh]

Good work Celine, thanks for posting.

ps: I think you missed the updated Pokemon Emerald number (7.06m) Is the same source of the updated top 5 Gamecube/GBA until march 2012.

 

[SeanR1221]

I keep hearing this every week but I don't think it's concerning. Almost everyone forgets that Nintendo didn't have any real competitors until the Playstation. Now there's MS and Sony. It's pretty normal actually.


edit: And where is the Wii in your post?

Its not concerning to a company that, when the Wii is removed from the equation, every systems sells less than the previous one?

 

[Linkstrikesback]

i was trying to do the opposite, combine OoT with OoT 3D.

the other guy was separating the OoT releases while combining the TP releases to say TP was the best selling Zelda because TP was the same while OoT was different.

i also prefer to combine all games when it is the same base game. true remakes like the Pokemon remakes would be the exception but remasters are still the same game as the original at the core.

It's time that's the important factor, not the control scheme.

You're just arbitrarily drawing lines so that you're right. TP released on two consoles At the same time (with a couple of weeks of seperation). OoT released on 2 consoles with a 13 year gap between releases. At the time OoT released , exactly 0 people decided not to buy it (i.e. in the late 1990s) because 13 years down the line, they knew a handheld version would exist. This obviously isn't the case for a game releasing on two differente consoles at the same time.

Obviously the sales should be combined between the two; the most obvious comparision is pokemon. No-one records pokemon versions seperately, because the two versions release at the same, whereas later remakes are counted seperately by the same logic.

 

[allan-bh]

I wonder how many Diddy Kong Racing DS sold?

1.59m

 

[nikatapi]

What is funny is that i own more games for the "unpopular" consoles than on the popular ones.

Especially on WiiU, i have it for about 2 months now and i already have 10 retail games (and most of them are third party), while on the Wii i have something like 5-6 games.

 

[TheMoon]

It's closer to 8.5 million(maybe 9 million), but not 10 million. It should have past 8 million by now based on the rate it was selling last holiday season, but we won't know what the WiiU is at until March most likely.

we will know by the end of this month when the quarterly investor meeting is held and we get new numbers. but the OP only takes the end-of-FY reports into account which is why we're still using Wii U numbers from April...

 

[The perfect Dark]

Its not concerning to a company that, when the Wii is removed from the equation, every systems sells less than the previous one?

And why the hell should you remove the Wii? It makes no sense at all. Do you also remove the DS from handhelds?

 

[SeanR1221]

And why the hell should you remove the Wii? It makes no sense at all. Do you also remove the DS from handhelds?

Outliers are frequently removed in data analysis to get a better picture of how things are trending.

 

[Manmademan]

I keep hearing this every week but I don't think it's concerning. Almost everyone forgets that Nintendo didn't have any real competitors until the Playstation. Now there's MS and Sony. It's pretty normal actually.


edit: And where is the Wii in your post?

The Genesis was most certainly a competitor. Nintendo lost a TON of market share to SEGA from the NES to SNES.

 

[The perfect Dark]

Outliers are frequently removed in data analysis to get a better picture of how things are trending.

umm this is not comparable at all. It's more like : "My thoughts make no sense...oh wait *removes Wii*...now it makes sense."



If you remove the Wii you should remove the ps2, too.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

And why the hell should you remove the Wii? It makes no sense at all. Do you also remove the DS from handhelds?

If it was your job to predict market trends, would you predict the next console Mario Kart to sell closer to 12 million (the console average with MK Wii) or 7 million (the average omitting MK Wii, not counting the last 6 months of MK 8) based on how the franchise has trended? That's not an insignificant gap. One value throwing off your trend line can lead to faulty conclusions.

A downwards trend with one exceptional spike over a 20 year period could appear as a straight line, but that's not looking at things realistically.

 

[SeanR1221]

umm this is not comparable at all. It's more like : "My thoughts make no sense...oh wait *removes Wii*...now it makes sense."



If you remove the Wii you should remove the ps2, too.

Ok bud, whatever makes you happy.

They even talk about this on the Gamexplain year roundup.

 

[The perfect Dark]

If it was your job to predict market trends, would you predict the next console Mario Kart to sell closer to 12 million (the console average with MK Wii) or 7 million (the average omitting MK Wii, not counting the last 6 months of MK 8) based on how the franchise has trended? That's not an insignificant gap. One value throwing off your trend line can lead to faulty conclusions.

A downwards trend with one exceptional spike over a 20 year period could appear as a straight line, but that's not looking at things realistically.

Sorry but you can't remove a console. That's not how statistics work (I studied statistics). It seriously makes no sense at all. You would remove 5-6 years of success just because....
You can't rely on data from 1992 (snes) . Time has changed. You can't predict sales numbers (upcoming consoles) ...that's why Pachter is 90% wrong.
You can calculate the average but this also makes no sense.

 

[SeanR1221]

(I studied statistics).

I'm starting to question that.

You could also separate out the Wii into its own phase and then look at the trend of the consoles...which is down.

I dunno, Ive presenting data like this at national conferences before. Too bad you weren't there to tell us we're all wrong.

 

[The perfect Dark]

I'm starting to question that.

You could also separate out the Wii into its own phase and then look at the trend of the consoles...which is down.

I dunno, Ive presenting data like this at national conferences before. Too bad you weren't there to tell us we're all wrong.

of course you can do this. But it wouldn't make much sense. It's more complicated than calculating the average. I'm not saying it's wrong but you have to consider more things.

 

[virtualS]

Wow, DKC being the biggest non pack in seller on SNES must've pissed off a few people at NCL. Sold close to double Yoshi's Island. Look at Goldeneye too.

I'm more convinced Microsoft bought Rare to hurt Nintendo rather than to do anything useful with them. Typical and freaking tragic.

 

[Refreshment.01]

i know it is pointed out in the first post that it includes Digital Sales. However, does the Nintendo chart contemplate Virtual Console sales? Or for example those 1.6 Million for Metroid Fusion include the Wii U VC sales?

i think the Digital Distribution sales are a very important factor when speaking about profits, instead on been alarmed by the sharp decline in install base for the latest handheld and home console systems. i mean, a digital sale has better margins and it is something that wasn't around as strongly in all of the previous consoles. DSi and Wii were basically experiments.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Sorry but you can't remove a console. That's not how statistics work (I studied statistics). It seriously makes no sense at all. You would remove 5-6 years of success just because....
You can't rely on data from 1992 (snes) . Time has changed. You can't predict sales numbers (upcoming consoles) ...that's why Pachter is 90% wrong.
You can calculate the average but this also makes no sense.

umm this is not comparable at all. It's more like : "My thoughts make no sense...oh wait *removes Wii*...now it makes sense."



If you remove the Wii you should remove the ps2, too.

If the PS4 ends up shipping 100 million units, the standard error of Sony's 4 console generations is a little over 10% of the mean.

With the Wii included, the standard error of Nintendo's console shipments is over 25% of the mean. I think there's a little bit more reasonable justification in omitting the data point.

 

[SeanR1221]

of course you can do this. But it wouldn't make much sense. It's more complicated than calculating the average. I'm not saying it's wrong but you have to consider more things.

But it DOES make sense to look at trends that way. Its also not complicated at all. Like...it would take me 3 seconds to do in SPSS.

 

[The perfect Dark]

But it DOES make sense to look at trends that way. Its also not complicated at all. Like...it would take me 3 seconds to do in SPSS.

Yes as I said before, you can look at trends and it's not complicated to calculate them but you can't predict sales numbers of the next console (and the software for the next console) just by looking at trends. That's what I meant. Sorry english is not my first language, maybe I'm talking obscure, lol.

 

[astrogamer]

i know it is pointed out in the first post that it includes Digital Sales. However, does the Nintendo chart contemplate Virtual Console sales? Or for example those 1.6 Million for Metroid Fusion include the Wii U VC sales?

i think the Digital Distribution sales are a very important factor when speaking about profits, instead on been alarmed by the sharp decline in install base for the latest handheld and home console systems. i mean, a digital sale has better margins and it is something that wasn't around as strongly in all of the previous consoles. DSi and Wii were basically experiments.

It seems the last records for the games available in the virtual console predate the virtual console so no. No digital only releases either. I hope Nintendo releases those someday

 

[Gonzo The Great]

(I studied statistics)

Then you would know that outliers are almost always removed from pools of data. Should Nintndo be concerned that their audience has shrunk every generation, not including the Wii, which gave them a temporary casual audience? Yes.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Yes as I said before, you can look at trends and it's not complicated to calculate them but you can't predict sales numbers of the next console (and the software for the next console) just by looking at trends. That's what I meant. Sorry english is not my first language, maybe I'm talking obscure, lol.

There are people who make money betting on market trends, who have to make these predictions. You make the best prediction possible with the data you have available. Nothing is certain, but it wouldn't be a bet if it was.

Now, if you had a client that was willing to invest in Nintendo around the launch of MK 9, would you advise them that the game would sell 12 million copies, or 8? That's a difference of $240 million in revenue.

 

[The perfect Dark]

Then you would know that outliers are almost always removed from pools of data. Should Nintndo be concerned that their audience has shrunk every generation, not including the Wii, which gave them a temporary casual audience? Yes.

of course they should. but the reason for it is important. I can't predict the sales number for WiiU 2 (oh god pick another name nintendo) because I have no idea what nintendo is going to try next (including target audience).

There are people who make money betting on market trends, who have to make these predictions. You make the best prediction possible with the data you have available. Nothing is certain, but it wouldn't be a bet if it was.

Now, if you had a client that was willing to invest in Nintendo around the launch of MK 9, would you advise them that the game would sell 12 million copies, or 8? That's a difference of $240 million in revenue.

Now I get what you meant. I agree. Totally misunderstood the last posts.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Outliers are frequently removed in data analysis to get a better picture of how things are trending.

Except the Wii is not an outlier, because when you include Nintendo handhelds (why wouldn't you?) it's within the margin.

You can't cherry pick statistics, remove an extremely successful console for actually solid reasons (marketing and novelty) and use it to prove a trend. Numbers do not work like that.

 

[sörine]

i know it is pointed out in the first post that it includes Digital Sales. However, does the Nintendo chart contemplate Virtual Console sales? Or for example those 1.6 Million for Metroid Fusion include the Wii U VC sales?

i think the Digital Distribution sales are a very important factor when speaking about profits, instead on been alarmed by the sharp decline in install base for the latest handheld and home console systems. i mean, a digital sale has better margins and it is something that wasn't around as strongly in all of the previous consoles. DSi and Wii were basically experiments.

VC sales aren't included in these, just the original platforms. In fact no digital only games are included.

There are VC releases that themselves may be over a million units across Wii/3DS/U like Super Mario Bros.

 

[SeanR1221]

Except the Wii is not an outlier, because when you include Nintendo handhelds (why wouldn't you?) it's within the margin.

You can't cherry pick statistics, remove an extremely successful console for actually solid reasons (marketing and novelty) and use it to prove a trend. Numbers do not work like that.

Why would you include handhelds into consoles?

 

[Lionel Richie]

Why would you include handhelds into consoles?

Aren't we talking about Nintendo's fanbase and its possible gradual reduction? Why not assume their target also include the large segment of the handheld market they own?

Another thing to consider is the level of competition. NES had none whatsoever, SNES already had the Genesis, and both the N64 and the GC were against the awesomely selling first two PS consoles. Another factor of the Wii's success is how Sony, the undeniable leader of home consoles sales, fumbled at first the seventh generation.

 

[SeanR1221]

Aren't we talking about Nintendo's fanbase and its possible gradual reduction? Why not assume their target also include the large segment of the handheld market they own?

Another thing to consider is the level of competition. NES had none whatsoever, SNES already had the Genesis, and both the N64 and the GC were against the awesomely selling first two PS consoles. Another factor of the Wii's success is how Sony, the undeniable leader of home consoles sales, fumbled at first the seventh generation.

I'm talking about the downward trend of their console sales.

 

[Refreshment.01]

VC sales aren't included in these, just the original platforms. In fact no digital only games are included.

There are VC releases that themselves may be over a million units across Wii/3DS/U like Super Mario Bros.

That high Sorine, a million? Educated hunch or based on something? A million 5 a piece for a game that payed itself decades ago is downright impressive.

 

[TheMoon]

That high Sorine, a million? Educated hunch or based on something? A million 5 a piece for a game that payed itself decades ago is downright impressive.

That actually sounds pretty low-balled for a game that is available to buy in all regions on VC across over 200m systems and is one of the most popular, recognizable and beloved games ever. Sure, only a small percentage of users on Wii even used the Wii Shop but still. If they bought only one thing, SMB was probably among the most likely candidates.

 

[StevieP]

I'm talking about the downward trend of their console sales.

If you remove the PSP man sony can't sell handhelds for shit.

 

[Refreshment.01]

That actually sounds pretty low-balled for a game that is available to buy in all regions on VC across over 200m systems and is one of the most popular, recognizable and beloved games ever. Sure, only a small percentage of users on Wii even used the Wii Shop but still. If they bought only one thing, SMB was probably among the most likely candidates.

Not exactly impressed by the case of SMB selling over a million, but because Sorine claims there most be several releases above 7 digits.

Nintendo should start a very strong push to get competent emulation for all their systems under one roof starting with the Wii U. im not suggesting for them to dump the entire ROM catalogue, but making the releases in a more periodical manner of key software and give it a "royal" threatment. Manual, covers, soundtracks among other perks within the emuator.

 

[Y2Kev]

If you remove the PSP man sony can't sell handhelds for shit.

Who disagrees with this?

 

[dampflokfreund]

Holy shit, I knew GameCube sold better than Wii U but that much better? Thats great to see!

 

[Lionel Richie]

I'm talking about the downward trend of their console sales.

That's fair man, I just disagree with the notion you can discard the Wii numbers as outliers for the reasons I stated. Other than that, yeah, it's hard to deny Nintendo has being losing a share of the market on each passing generation.

 

[StevieP]

Who disagrees with this?

I don't think it's fair, considering the PSP was fairly successful from both a hardware and software perspective. It wasn't a DS, sure, but it was successful. Removing it arbitrarily to make a point isn't fair to Sony, who put money and effort behind it to make it successful. It's not like they lucked into it. They duffed the market with the Vita, which doesn't take away from the PSP's relative success.

 

[Spacejaws]

Man I refuse to believe Star Wars Rogue Squadron 2/3 sold less than 1 million copies.

That just hurts.

 

[sörine]

That high Sorine, a million? Educated hunch or based on something? A million 5 a piece for a game that payed itself decades ago is downright impressive.

Just a guess given the total VC userbase, various promotions over the years and the game's own pedigree and significance. Heck all 10 NES 3DS Ambassador games are likely well over a million thanks to that promotion alone.

 

[ArchedThunder]

That's fair man, I just disagree with the notion you can discard the Wii numbers as outliers for the reasons I stated. Other than that, yeah, it's hard to deny Nintendo has being losing a share of the market on each passing generation.

"In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations."

The Wii is the very definition of outlier.

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

(Nintendo is still rather small to produce titles for the HD-era and they are increasing the cross-studio interaction to keep up with the demand).

Nintendo actually has the largest in-house studio of any game developer I can think of. However, cross-studio interaction has been a common practice among the major players for decades. Undoubtedly, every generation has required larger and larger accredited and unaccredited staff developers. The age of the internet has also given an opportunity to what would have typically been several silent cooperation companies to leak their contributions to the world.

Other than that, yeah, it's hard to deny Nintendo has being losing a share of the market on each passing generation.

It is the exact result of creating products where the "hook" of the system is rejected as a fetish commodity by the critical masses, and then the core demographic or loyalist feels a sense of alienation from the product. It is a lose - lose, or an uphill battle to slowly convince some of your lost fans to eventually pick up the system.

 

[blu]

I'm talking about the downward trend of their console sales.

The downward trend is perfectly normal considering the market has become saturated with players, and margins have been shrinking thanks to fierce competition with other popular entertainment devices. One could argue there's no place for 3 major players in this market. And loss-leading strategies can get the players only so far. Nintendo's recent success (or successes, if you insist on keeping the wii and ds separated) has been in solving an unsolvable riddle by addressing markets beyond their traditional. Discarding the Wii as an outlier is as wrong for an analysis of the industry, nintendo included, as it gets.

 

[Raistlin]

Not that it wasn't known, but putting up that ordered list of hardware numbers really highlights Nitnendo's trend for consoles.

Other than the Wii's massive success with 'non-gamers', every successive console has performed worse than the predecessor. It's not a good look.

 

[SeanR1221]

That's fair man, I just disagree with the notion you can discard the Wii numbers as outliers for the reasons I stated. Other than that, yeah, it's hard to deny Nintendo has being losing a share of the market on each passing generation.

It's not like the data is being dumped in a trash can. It's just important to set aside sometimes to observe certain trends. Thats all.

The downward trend is perfectly normal considering the market has become saturated with players, and margins have been shrinking thanks to fierce competition with other popular entertainment devices. One could argue there's no place for 3 major players in this market. And loss-leading strategies can get the players only so far. Nintendo's recent success (or successes, if you insist on keeping the wii and ds separated) has been in solving an unsolvable riddle by addressing markets beyond their traditional. Discarding the Wii as an outlier is as wrong for an analysis of the industry, nintendo included, as it gets.

The Wii U sales are perfectly normal? What will the next system sell? And dear god...the system after that?