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[cash_longfellow]

I hope other console makers take note that if inventory is available during the launch window it kills scalpers and sets launch sales records.

Agreed. I think Sony had the right idea this gen at release, locking a lot of the early preorders behind having a ps plus account. That was a good way to beat the scalpers. But the biggest problem with stock for both Sony and Microsoft was Covid.

 

[tr1p1ex]

On one hand I love the console and thinks i deserves success and support. On the other hand I see how Nintendo is handling it and I the following issues and I wish for sales slowdown:

• Extremely poor, misleading communication from the start, sometimes actively hiding price information
• Terrible, unpredictable pricing strategy
• Too reliant on Switch 2 editions (at this point in time the double their exclusive, retail aviable games, for Switch 2)
• Weird policy with announcing release dates (No metroid or Hyrule Warriors dates despite having gameplay before Air riders? Why announce Splatoon Raiders on the App without a launch window?)
• Bullshit Key-card debacle with no end in sight
• Not giving devs access to devkits even when the console is out

...can you get any more trivial with your complaining?

 

[Juja]

My take:

- it's still too early to make longer-term assumptions. The Wii also started off with a bang (relative to the time). It sold well in the end, but "just" 100 million, because it declined quite fast. I'm talking about the trajectory here, without focusing too much on the numbers.
- I expect Nintendo to support SW2 more than the Wii, but still, the price increases in HW and SW will cut off a small part of the more casual userbase. Nintendo has a new challenge right now on how to attract the same customers of Switch 1 and potentially new customers, without having a strong "novelty" effect like the first iteration of the console.
- This doesn't change the fact that it's doing stellar, and after the first 2 months it's not just about "putting stock out there". If production keeps up, I expect this year to be closer to 20 million than to the forecast 15 million.

Woah... Somebody actually said something that made sense instead of claiming that it will be a flop since it's not more powerful than the PS5 Pro.

But seriously, this is pretty much what I think about the situation. I expect a DS --> 3DS kind of drop for Switch 2. Hopefully it won't be as steep as that, but I don't see it hitting the crazy highs that Switch got to for all the various reasons you said, especially being less affordable and people having less money to spend on entertainment.

 

[tr1p1ex]

I'm still pissed off about this reporting. People are implying it means something when the circumstances are very different. Switch 1 launched with a relatively soft supply because Wii U failed. Nintendo was cautious but ramped up production when it became clear that it would succeed. It went on to sell 150 million. Switch 2 launched with a big supply and is not even sold out months later. Did Nintendo flood US supply to avoid tariffs for a bit? Probably, but regardless it sold 2M in 2 months. Estimates put total US sales of Switch 1 at or above 50M. So at most 4% of Switch 1 owners upgraded. That is not very impressive.

Look, I like mine and my kids love it. I got MK, DK, Online expansion for the family, a pro controller and Kirby and have 250 loaded in eshop credit and am considering getting a second one. I am not an antagonist, but really can you say it is doing great with such limited data and comparing to other consoles? No. Be honest people, stop making dumb people dumber by insinuating A vs B is meaningful without the larger context.

It is not irrelevant, it determined Nintendo's initial manufacturing capacity. If Switch came after the Wii, they would have made a significant percentage more at launch and from the start. The comparison between SW1 and SW2 would look different.

The Xbox version says one thing to me as a Gamepass subscriber with kids that play Gamepass, and a lot of Minecraft, everything is going to work smoothly. It makes it an interesting option.

The start is impressive.

4% of owners upgrading in 3 months is impressive.

YOu're forgetting that with any console, roughly ~80% of the install base bought after the first year. And, with Switch, ~90% didn't buy it until after the 1st year.

And you're forgetting it's 3 months old and hasn't went thru an xmas season yet. And that sales of consoles are heavily weighted to xmas season.

So you're as premature about that erroneous nugget of doom as the others are to declare total victory!!!

The strong start was expected. IT's been 8+ years. Nearly 13 if you count the Wii U. And the 150mn Switch 1 install base and similar form factor of S2.

IN terms of predicting overall sales:

The higher price, lack of a pandemic lockdown boost, a hybrid not being new and fresh any more, natural general audience malaise from recently playing the game franchises and the fact Switch 1 games and even the hardware don't wear out so easily plus some fringe and unseen competition are factors that seem likely to prevent the S2 from reaching the 150mn mark of the Switch1.

But ...at the same time I see plenty of factors keeping it at worst above 3ds total unit sales. The console and handheld are combined still (obviously.) The hardware is nice. There's 2 big attractive 1st party games out already including one from the franchise that was a system seller last time around. They also have Pokemon still and Pokemon cards have been hot lately although maybe $$$ related. But the new open world rough running Pokemon game designs from Switch 1 should run nice on S2 and still be fresh for fans. And Nintendo's track record of making great games is still intact. Also NIntendo undoubtedly will release lower priced hardware and even price drops as usual as long as inflation/tariffs in the future cooperate.

 

[tr1p1ex]

The casuals that bought a Wii had simply moved onto other things. My point was this is not the case with the transition between the original Switch and the new model. Which was my point about it being irrelevant.

Yeah and Wii was a console. Switch is a handheld. The worst selling Nintendo handheld sold nearly 80mn units. And that was before the console dept was folded into the handheld dept.

 

[tr1p1ex]

My take:

- it's still too early to make longer-term assumptions. The Wii also started off with a bang (relative to the time). It sold well in the end, but "just" 100 million, because it declined quite fast. I'm talking about the trajectory here, without focusing too much on the numbers.
- I expect Nintendo to support SW2 more than the Wii, but still, the price increases in HW and SW will cut off a small part of the more casual userbase. Nintendo has a new challenge right now on how to attract the same customers of Switch 1 and potentially new customers, without having a strong "novelty" effect like the first iteration of the console.
- This doesn't change the fact that it's doing stellar, and after the first 2 months it's not just about "putting stock out there". If production keeps up, I expect this year to be closer to 20 million than to the forecast 15 million.

Agree more or less with the sentiment but ...

...the important Wii trajectory is the Nintendo console before sold 22mn. And the one after sold 13mn. And Nintendo console sales had been declining every gen since the very 1st one. And Wii was a console.


The NIntendo handheld business has been much more successful install base wise. It's had ups/downs but the downs are 80mn unit sales and the ups hit 150mn units. A whole 'nother ballpark from their consoles.

 

[LordOcidax]

Agree more or less although for more/different reasons but hate the Wii comparison.

The important Wii trajectory is the Nintendo console before sold 22mn. And the one after sold 13mn. And Nintendo console sales had been declining every gen since the very 1st one. And Wii was a console.


The NIntendo handheld business has been much more successful install base wise. It's had ups/downs but the downs are 80mn unit sales and the ups hit 150mn units. A whole 'nother ballpark from their consoles.

By that time Nintendo had to support two completely different systems. Since the Switch business model they put all the efforts in just one system, also their philosophy when it comes to developing games also secured a constant delivery of exclusive games. By next year the Switch 2 is probably going to have more exclusives than the PS5 entire life and that is going to continue moving hardware sales.

 

[blacktout]

On one hand I love the console and thinks i deserves success and support. On the other hand I see how Nintendo is handling it and I the following issues and I wish for sales slowdown:

I'm extremely happy with the Switch 2 on the whole and not interested in seeing an ecosystem I've sunk money into flounder just to teach Nintendo a lesson, but, that said, I do agree with some of your points:

• Extremely poor, misleading communication from the start, sometimes actively hiding price information

I think it's an exaggeration to say that Nintendo "actively hid" price information when prices for the hardware and games were made available online immediately after the Switch 2 Direct, but I do strongly agree that not including that information in the Direct itself helped to create a vacuum that quickly filled up with misinformation. Like, we had people on this very forum talking about "$90 Mario Kart" for months after it became clear that there was no such thing.

I also think that Nintendo's initial communication strategy sucked pretty broadly. They never really got aggressive about debunking lies and addressing confusion surrounding the device. And, as a result, the discourse around the console got very toxic, very fast. You can't exclusively blame grifters for this, as Nintendo helped to create an environment where they could thrive.

• Terrible, unpredictable pricing strategy

There's an "aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln" situation here where Nintendo's pricing strategy has mostly been fine, but the places where they've fucked up ($80 MKW, charging for Welcome Tour) have been so glaring that's it's hard to give them credit for what they've gotten right.

• Too reliant on Switch 2 editions (at this point in time the double their exclusive, retail aviable games, for Switch 2)

I totally disagree with you here. I think Nintendo has struck a good balance between Switch 2 exclusives (with two major ones and two smaller downloadable titles in the first three months), Switch 2 Editions, and cross-gen titles.

• Weird policy with announcing release dates (No metroid or Hyrule Warriors dates despite having gameplay before Air riders? Why announce Splatoon Raiders on the App without a launch window?)

Eh, I don't know. I agree that their communication around MP4 has been weird and frustrating, but I don't think there's any issue with Hyrule Warriors. The current release window ("this winter") includes early 2026, so I don't think it's at all unusual to not have a firm release date yet. And the Splatoon Raiders trailer was just a quick teaser to help get eyes on the Splatoon 3 patch. I don't think it needed a release date, since the common sense assumption is that it's probably coming out next summer and if it drops before that it will be a pleasant surprise.

• Bullshit Key-card debacle with no end in sight

I think this is another area where the problem is poor initial communication from Nintendo. If they had just been honest and said "Switch 2 cartridges are expensive to produce and, while all first party games will be on the cart, we wanted to include a lower cost option for our third party partners to deter them from sticking download codes inside retail boxes," I think the reception would have been better. Instead they hid the existence of game key cards in a vague press release and soon people were saying shit like "all Switch 2 games will be on key cards! Physical media is dead!!"

• Not giving devs access to devkits even when the console is out

This one is fucking huge. I honestly can't even begin to imagine what the strategy was here. Just a hilarious own goal reminiscent of Nintendo's worst impulses from the pre-Switch era. Like, I don't even know what to say. Were they that worried about leaks? Is this some backwards attempt at "curation?" I have no clue.

 

[The_Mike]

The Meltdowns when Switch 2 sales surpass PS5...will be legendary.

It won't surpass PS2 though.

Sony suddenly reported some lost sales figures right as switch surpassed it back then, I'm sure they will found some new receipts yet again when that time passes.

 

[LordOcidax]

It won't surpass PS2 though.

Sony suddenly reported some lost sales figures right as switch surpassed it back then, I'm sure they will found some new receipts yet again when that time passes.

Thats the Switch 1 job. The Switch 2 surpassing 100 million is going to be a success in this era.