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[Ev1L AuRoN]

Exactly this time of game, I'm afraid we lose on a subscription based market. This type of project needs their retail price at launch to recoup the investment, the same goes to games like Starfield and Final Fantasy XVI. Microsoft will lose a lot of the Starfield potential earning capability, putting it day one on gamepass.

 

[Thirty7ven]

LOL

Not sustainable said the indie dev or whoever. Maybe if the company lived and died on the success of that game, sure. But just like big movies cost a lot of money so do games. Gaas games aren’t any cheaper to make at these studios.

And is there anything more pathetic than gaming fans being worried that companies are spending a lot of money on games?

Ridiculous.

 

[Heisenberg007]

What about something like Control or Plague Tale?

They were rumoured to have budget of about 25-35 million USD. And have sold decent amount, to a point where they offer better return if successful.

8 bit indie side scrollers you could make 800 of them for this budget.

Control also sold 3 million copies in total. Plague tale sold 1 million copies. TLOU 2 sold 10+ million copies.

Sony plays a high-risk, high-reward game.

 

[GymWolf]

Other devs can gladly fuck off, nobody force them to make high budget games so this whole thing just sound like a nothingburger with a lot of salt in it.

 

[omegasc]

Well, it's how they get people interested to buy the platform. And then they end up buying the other stuff around it (accessories, subs, other games). It's not hard to understand.

 

[Wooxsvan]

larger budget simply means more risk. you cannot afford to make a mediocre game. the stakes are higher as you increase budget. safe bets will be more and more of the norm.

 

[Salz01]

If they would’ve cut out all the Abby segments, it would be been a better game, cheaper and higher profit.

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

IIRC those numbers also don’t include marketing and shit. And yeah it’s not nearly as big a risk for a large mega studio backed by console manufacturer money but it’s certainly not something the industry could thrive on.

And personally I don’t want to see games like this, super safe focus group tested AAA bloated with nonsense. Haven’t finished LoU II yet but HFW certainly could have been quite a bit shorter. Playing through Days Gone right now, feel like I have experienced everything and am reaching diminishing returns in the game yet apparently I am only 1/4 of the way done Part of the reason I haven’t finished LoU II is because I hear it’s a super long slog. Give me games like Control or Plague Tale, RE4, Deathloop, Returnal, or the upcoming Alan Wake 2 over these turgid snoozefests. Ass Creed is another good example of this, just content for the sake of content.

 

[Elbereth]

What about the Halo Infinite budget?

I mean, you have a game that cost more than double the budget of TLOU 2, and the results of that were… Less than stellar given the budget.

The cost to make game is only a single variable. The success of the game determines the sustainability of it. With the pedigree of Naughty Dog, and the success of the TLOU franchise, it would be foolish to deprive gamers of that AAA experience. In fact, we expect ND to continuously raise the bar… As does Sony, and gamers. The ROI is obvious.




There is room for both indie games and AAA titles. Cost alone should not determine the measure of success. The end result should.

 

[Ansphn]

This is proof that Sony is one of the few last remaining company wanting and spending to create excellence. Sony and Rockstar might be the last 2.

 

[Fake]

What about the Halo Infinite budget?

Don't even mention. That was a catastrophe waste of money for the final product. Is like Microsoft is some sort of masochist.

 

[Unknown?]

Thats explain 'why' Sony is looking for remakes and GAAS, no matter the spin fanboys try to do. Waiting for the inevitable Horizon Zero Dawn remake.

Ah like how Nintendo has basically made Switch a Wii U machine.

 

[crunchyBiscuits]

Well.. I mean, if you want games to look that good and play that nice, it's all going to come at a cost

Despite what you might feel about the story itself, you can't deny TLoU P2 oozes quality in other departments

 

[thismeinteil]

"Marvel movies aren't sustainable. Give me that budget and I can make 200 YouTube videos"

Probably not the example you want to use at this point in the MCU timeline.

 

[Luigi Mario]

Isn’t Rami Ismael that hack indie dev turned political activist whose only claim to fame is making Luftrausers nearly a decade ago?
He is Phil Fish-tier when comes to being taken seriously.

 

[Imtjnotu]

If GAAS end up making more money to Sony, I can't say they would back to make AAA 'goodness', don't you think?

Their GAAS will come from their mobile games not their home console. They've already said that by 2025 20% of their gaming division games. Stop the personal push this will be their PS5 games

 

[Skifi28]

I'm sure one can make tons of unsustainable indie games for the same budget.

 

[tkscz]

"Marvel movies aren't sustainable. Give me that budget and I can make 200 YouTube videos"

Probably not the best example to use at the moment.

As for is it sustainable, only for very few franchises. Video game franchises sell BIG when it's a beloved franchise, more so than movie franchises. However, not every game franchise can pull something like that off.

I mean, if a big enough studio wants to go for it, I don't see why not, but I wouldn't want to see the VG industry go the way of the movie industry with every game trying to be $200 million AAA title. THAT would be unsustainable.

 

[analog_future]

Not every game can or should have this type of budget, but there's absolutely room for a small segment of "blockbuster" AAA games to pull this off.

If anything, TLOU Part II being a success with that large of a budget is proof of that. And it hasn't even dropped on PC yet (which will inevitably happen).


What's not sustainable is all these GaaS games that come and go in a matter of months ala Avengers, Anthem, Babylon's Fall, Knockout City, Rumbleverse, Multiversus, Destruction Allstars, Hyper Scape, etc.. etc.. etc..

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

I wonder how much TLOU Part II would cost if there were no crunch and every dev was working the standard 8 hour work day.

 

[Pelta88]

Not with the marketing budget, no.

I get what you're trying to do here. However, in financial reporting and in entertainment they include the total cost under the ip. So yes, that does include Marketing budget.

Like when Studios reveal movie budgets, it's a total cost. Not segmented.

 

[Fake]

Their GAAS will come from their mobile games not their home console. They've already said that by 2025 20% of their gaming division games. Stop the personal push this will be their PS5 games

My problem is the Playstation Showcase showing otherwise. I still prefer AAA over GAAS anytime.

Is just Sony moves are so bad those days.

 

[banjo5150]

So thinking about these numbers, can Gamepass support super big titles like that consistently? Guess if Gamepass becomes the huge next big thing will it change gaming as we know it forever?

 

[Thirty7ven]

I wonder how much TLOU Part II would cost if there were no crunch and every dev was working the standard 8 hour work day.

Probably 15% more or something?

Let’s also recognize that crunch at studios like Naughty Dog aren’t imposed, people don’t understand what it’s like to work on these type of projects at these type of studios. People want to be there, they are addicted to the process. People think it’s factory work but that’s not how it is.

In fact because of that type of BS being spread ND actually had to start mandating people leave the office.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Control also sold 3 million copies in total. Plague tale sold 1 million copies. TLOU 2 sold 10+ million copies.

Sony plays a high-risk, high-reward game.

I wanted to stay in somewhat similar genres so pointed out those 2.

What about games like Outer Worlds, it sold 5 million while costing roughly 35 million? Or Grounded that again was way cheaper but sold closer to amount as TLOU 2?

Also these games don't require huge marketing budgets. I have seen Horizon FW marketing. Would've costed them pretty penny on top of $220 million.

 

[Warnen]

What about something like Control or Plague Tale?

They were rumoured to have budget of about 25-35 million USD. And have sold decent amount, to a point where they offer better return if successful.

8 bit indie side scrollers you could make 800 of them for this budget.

Still a B movie up against a triple A. Those games are fine but rather play a Sony 1st party game (save days gone) then most of those types of games.

 

[Puscifer]

Thats explain 'why' Sony is looking for remakes and GAAS, no matter the spin fanboys try to do. Waiting for the inevitable Horizon Zero Dawn remake.

Didn't they announce that already? Lol big yikes.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

is not sustainable for 90% industry.

 

[Calverz]

And we are supposed to be shocked that Sony are really chasing GAAS titles? They have created an expectation within their fan base of delivering at least one of these types of games a year. Maybe some even expect two a year. Expectation of graphics and technology only increases and a lot of them expect 90+ metacritic scores etc. No wonder Jim Ryan is fighting tooth and nail to block abk merger for that that cod money.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Still a B movie up against a triple A. Those games are fine but rather play a Sony 1st party game (save days gone) then most of those types of games.

Control gameplay is better than something like Uncharted 4.

What you are getting for huge budgets is better animation, visual polish, lip syncing.

Not sure if that stuff is worth ballooning budget to this level.

For $200 million you should be aiming for hitting the mainstream, rather that selling to same 10 million repeat customers.

 

[ByWatterson]

It is sustainable for platform holders who make S-Tier experiences you can't get anywhere else. Like how many sales duds of this scope and scale has Sony released? One maybe, Days Gone?

 

[Kerotan]

This idea of giving us 20 thirty indie games is bollox. I'd be bored shitless by the 3rd indie.

If you know a sequel is going to sell a minimum number of copies and that number is huge, then it completely justifies a huge budget.

What next some indie dev tells us how he could have made 100 indie games for GTA VI budget?

 

[Fuz]

So we‘d be getting 20 super cool roguelike pixelart games, it’s Metroid meets dark souls check it out!

I love them, but this is fun

 

[Warnen]

Control gameplay is better than something like Uncharted 4.

What you are getting for huge budgets is better animation, visual polish, lip syncing.

Not sure if that stuff is worth ballooning budget to this level.

For $200 million you should be aiming for hitting the mainstream, rather that selling to same 10 million repeat customers.

I get ya, but those ultra polished tent pole games keep people coming back. Not every game needs to be one but would hurt if there were none.

 

[Roni]

There's nothing safe about TLOU2's storyline... Which makes Naughty Dog even more badass.

 

[The artful mincer]

The game made Sony over a billion dollars minimum the first year. It's highly sustainable.

How did you get to a billon dollars? The Last of Us 2 is definitely profitable but a billion in its first year is a stretch

 

[The artful mincer]

The premium $70 AAA model as it exists now isn't sustainable. If it weren't for the cash flow from getting 30% of every third party game sold on PlayStation Sony wouldn't be able to invest $200m over 5 years into creating these games. That's why Jim Ryan doesn't want games day 1 on PC or streaming services and why he spends so much on timed exclusivity. He has to protect the business model.

The problem is that the return on investment is becoming too far out and, even though more people are gaming, people are buying fewer games than in past generations. That's why Sony is chasing GaaS money. To shore up cash flow if the premium sales bubble bursts. Or at the very least subsidize the premium model.

What? Source for that please the switch and ps4 have sold more software than any console prior.

 

[swaffles23]

Who the fuck wants Raimi Ismael indie games

 

[Heisenberg007]

It is sustainable for platform holders who make S-Tier experiences you can't get anywhere else. Like how many sales duds of this scope and scale has Sony released? One maybe, Days Gone?

True. And even Days Gone sold 9+ million copies.

 

[mckmas8808]

If GAAS end up making more money to Sony, I can't say they would back to make AAA 'goodness', don't you think?

Sony's devs mostly are great at making single player games. They can't make GAAS games. So how would Sony forces devs that aren't good at GAAS, make GAAS games?

It's perfectly sustainable. Just means every big budget game will be a very safe focus-tested experience based on an existing IP and formulas made by a large publisher. Basically every game is just going to have to be the equivalent of a Marvel movie if it has that kind of budget because no one is giving your indie game about gay cowboys $200M. Which is fine, we need a few big dumb tentpole titles.

There's literally NOTHING about God of War Ragnorock that feels like a big dumb title. It's AAA gaming at its best.

FFXVI must have cost S-E a pretty penny. May be around the $200mil mark too with marketing one would think?

30-70 hours of content, crazy amount of character models/NPCs, differing environments, high budget cutscenes and gameplay systems and assets created from scratch.

Some of FF XVI's cost was subsidized by Sony. Hence the exclusive part. It wouldn't surprise me if we found out Sony had to pay close to $50 million for this exclusive.

Although it was part of the discussion, I feel like OP should have omitted the indie dev’s tweet. It steers the conversation into the wrong direction because too many people here look down upon independent games.

This should be more about AAA games being as big of a gamble as releasing a Hollywood blockbuster film…And the video game usually has no toy merch or other lanes of profit to draw upon, unlike movies.

Many AAA games have extra money coming in via DLC and MTX. Remember Horizon Forbidden West Burning Shores? Or selling the game like this.....

So thinking about these numbers, can Gamepass support super big titles like that consistently? Guess if Gamepass becomes the huge next big thing will it change gaming as we know it forever?

That's something some people on GAF don't really want to talk about. But Bobby Kotick, Jim Ryan, and Strauss Zelnick (CEO of Take-Two) have already told the world the answer to your question.

I wanted to stay in somewhat similar genres so pointed out those 2.

What about games like Outer Worlds, it sold 5 million while costing roughly 35 million? Or Grounded that again was way cheaper but sold closer to amount as TLOU 2?

Also these games don't require huge marketing budgets. I have seen Horizon FW marketing. Would've costed them pretty penny on top of $220 million.

But you do realize that it also sold at a cheaper price, so Grounded didn't generate as much money as TLOU2 did.

 

[RickMasters]

Well……… it probably isn’t unless the game is success.


AAA dev is expensive and it will only get more expensive as games get more resource heavy to make and more technically demanding. Just look at the rolling credits of most of the big games. A game requires everything from programmers to project management to actors for the characters…. Artists….. marketing…. In some cases research. Licence to deals etc.



TLOU has been a massive success for Sony. But I’d bet ubi and EA have some pretty high budget too and they have games that flop. List of games are in that 100+ to develop these days and many don’t make back their money……I don’t know if I would call it ‘unsustainable’ so much as I would call it a ‘double edged sword’. Look how many movies cost hundreds of millions to make and they flop hard……


You know what’s not sustainable? Failure. AAA game development is high risk. But as TLOU shows it can be rewarding….. but let’s be real….. most AAA games are not making back their dev cost or meeting some of these companies profit expectations….. I guess you could say repeated failures are not sustainable. Especially if you are not a big corp.

In a world full of economic ups and downs, I would say AAA development is high risk. We have seen quite a few AAA devs shut their doors in the last ten years. No wonder so many of these companies like ABK, Ubisoft, take 2/rockstar and EA just play it safe with sequel after sequel.


Ubi can barely make a game these days without slapping AC branding on it. Rockstar rarely make new IP and when they do, it’s basically yet another open world GTA style game ( bully, read dead, la noir) I’m surprised we get anything from EA that is not sports or need for speed anymore. Would they have bothered to make a new adventure game if they couldn’t slap the Star Wars Name on it? Blizzard only make three games…. Activision has all their studios making COD. Sequels and established brands…… and remasters of games that we already played. Because it’s safe, for them.



Ok a side note. Big up to the indie scene for real….. weird niche games aside….. they gave us things like hades, tunic, the ascent, art of rally, deaths door, cross code, dead cells ( and it’s amazing DLC) demons tilt, loot river, moonscars signalis… wonder boy: dragons trap, monster boy ( two amazing remakes by a small indie dev),hollow knight, void bastards…. these have been some of my fave games over the last two years. I still have a tonne of AAA games in my backlog though. I would have played them already but these little indies were just more interesting than diving into yet another COD campaign or another AC game. They feel samey…. And that makes them a waste of time to play.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I wanted to stay in somewhat similar genres so pointed out those 2.

What about games like Outer Worlds, it sold 5 million while costing roughly 35 million? Or Grounded that again was way cheaper but sold closer to amount as TLOU 2?

Also these games don't require huge marketing budgets. I have seen Horizon FW marketing. Would've costed them pretty penny on top of $220 million.

The Outer Worlds, being a multiplatform title, did indeed sell very well.

Grounded did not sell 10 million copies. It had 10 million players because of Game Pass.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

IIRC those numbers also don’t include marketing and shit. And yeah it’s not nearly as big a risk for a large mega studio backed by console manufacturer money but it’s certainly not something the industry could thrive on.

And personally I don’t want to see games like this, super safe focus group tested AAA bloated with nonsense. Haven’t finished LoU II yet but HFW certainly could have been quite a bit shorter. Playing through Days Gone right now, feel like I have experienced everything and am reaching diminishing returns in the game yet apparently I am only 1/4 of the way done Part of the reason I haven’t finished LoU II is because I hear it’s a super long slog. Give me games like Control or Plague Tale, RE4, Deathloop, Returnal, or the upcoming Alan Wake 2 over these turgid snoozefests. Ass Creed is another good example of this, just content for the sake of content.

Some wild stuff there! TLOU Part 2 is a far cry from a super safe focus group tested AAA and you'd know that if you'd have bothered in actually playing past the prologue (Jackson) part of the game.

 

[Fake]

Didn't they announce that already? Lol big yikes.

Not yet. Was leaked a time ago with the Horizon Zero Dawn Multiplayer pictures.

 

[Mr Moose]

I wanted to stay in somewhat similar genres so pointed out those 2.

What about games like Outer Worlds, it sold 5 million while costing roughly 35 million? Or Grounded that again was way cheaper but sold closer to amount as TLOU 2?

Also these games don't require huge marketing budgets. I have seen Horizon FW marketing. Would've costed them pretty penny on top of $220 million.

U WOT M8?
Are you talking sales or players?

 

[ReBurn]

What? Source for that please the switch and ps4 have sold more software than any console prior.

We've talked about it on this forum several times. It doesn't matter how many games were sold in the past. Sony and Nintendo already received that revenue.

PlayStation Data Suggests $70 Games Are Resulting In Fewer Sales

This can only mean one thing.

www.thegamer.com

EA says gamers are selectively buying blockbusters as inflation wracks economy

WIth game prices increasing to $70 and disposable income shrinking, consumers are gravitating to big blockbuster franchises for their game purchases.

www.tweaktown.com

People are being more selective with their game purchases, not buying as many. People buying fewer third party games hurts platform owners because platform owners rely on those third party sales to fund first party games while they're in development. It's not that complicated.

 

[GymWolf]

It is sustainable for platform holders who make S-Tier experiences you can't get anywhere else. Like how many sales duds of this scope and scale has Sony released? One maybe, Days Gone?

Nope, that one was also successful and it is getting a fucking movie or serial tv.

 

[ByWatterson]

Nope, that one was also successful and it is getting a fucking movie or serial tv.

Well there you have it! I enjoyed it myself.

 

[Roufianos]

The game made Sony over a billion dollars minimum the first year. It's highly sustainable.

Not true. Last we heard it had sold 10m copies. The game's been heavily discounted at retail but even if all of those were at $60 and made digitally, it would be 600m.

 

[Negotiator101]

Thats explain 'why' Sony is looking for remakes and GAAS, no matter the spin fanboys try to do. Waiting for the inevitable Horizon Zero Dawn remake.