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[SlimySnake]

The game was £9.99 in the UK within 18 months of launch...and that was at the retailer GAME which is a rip off. I remember thinking WTF when I saw that.

Millions of those sales must be at half price or less I imagine.

I saw it on sale for $14.99 within a year. Not sure where but I was very surprised. Clearly, the backlash hurt the game's sales. I dont remember seeing GOW or Spiderman dipping below $39.99 for years.

Someone on gaf has a tool to go back and capture all the times the game went on sale. I would love to see a comparison between TLOU2 and other games.

Do we know that marketing cost of TLOU2, from what’s been said the court doc numbers aren’t including marketing. Doesn’t that also factor into how profitable the game is?

yeah, marketing costs were said to be just as much as production costs when games were said to be around $50-100 million. i doubt sony is putting in $220 million marketing anything, but its fair to say $50-100 million was the marketing cost for TLOU2.

 

[GymWolf]

Not if you are as talented as Naughty America

The porn channel?

 

[Hardensoul]

I saw it on sale for $14.99 within a year. Not sure where but I was very surprised. Clearly, the backlash hurt the game's sales. I dont remember seeing GOW or Spiderman dipping below $39.99 for years.

Someone on gaf has a tool to go back and capture all the times the game went on sale. I would love to see a comparison between TLOU2 and other games.


yeah, marketing costs were said to be just as much as production costs when games were said to be around $50-100 million. i doubt sony is putting in $220 million marketing anything, but its fair to say $50-100 million was the marketing cost for TLOU2.

How can they make enough profit to fund next game. Doesn’t seem to be much growth in profits.

Revenue is big numbers but without growth in profits too, that is not sustainable. IMO

 

[SlimySnake]

How can they make enough profit to fund next game. Doesn’t seem to be much growth in profits.

Revenue is big numbers but without growth in profits too, that is not sustainable. IMO

They are not, but they make exceptions for big system sellers like TLOU and GOW.

Other games like Days Gone dont get this treatment despite selling millions of copies which is why DG2 was never greenlit and now they are making some gaas trash game.

Sony is already moving away from funding these big games. They literally announced that 60% of their first party games going forward will be gaas. This is a publisher that made a 100% single player AAA games last gen.

 

[Puscifer]

Its time to go back to the 8-10 hour AAA game. It was once the norm and now its scoffed at.

All it will take is for some dev with clout to do it, and have it review well and sell a ton. Everyone else will follow suit.
Its a copycat industry

And doing things incentivze multiple playthroughs. I didn't beat Kotor over 20 times, I did it because the first playthrough is 30 hours and subsequent ones are 15 to 20 depending on how much content you want to do.

 

[UnNamed]

If the latest sales figures are accurate, they've made about $700,000,000 off the game

A $480,000,000 profit sounds pretty sustainable to me

According to sources, TLOU franchise sold 37M, since the first installment had a remaster and remake, we'll say 15M for TLOU2.

Let's say every copy was sold at 45$ on average. On that 45$, publisher and developers take from 50 to 70%, the rest is retailers, shipping, other costs. We'll take 60% so, from that 45$, the profit is 27$.

27X15M is 405M. The game coated 220M plus promotion, for this game I would say from 50 to 100M, let's say 70M, so the total cost is 290.

405-290 is 115M. Not bad but not good either.

The break even point was at 11M. Tell me what AAA game sold at least 11M.

So yes, AAA gaming is hardly sustainable.

 

[Ellery]

Given the quality of TLOU2 throughout the game and the size of it I am surprised it isn't half a billion.

Those concerned people can be concerned somewhere else when I gladly pay full price day1 for a gaming monument.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a game that expensive. If it is a game of that quality and sells as well whats the problem.

I still have 50 different bite sized indie games on my platforms, but when you have the option to get an Akune Gold Wagyu ultra premium steak from Naughty Dog then you have to to see what the best developer wizards are up to.

 

[Fake]

Of course I know for a fact that they are lying when they say this game took 6 years and 300 devs when we know for a fact that the entire production team was heads down on Uncharted 4 until 2016 and then had an even brutal crunch period for lost legacy until august 2017 when the entire studio had to work on getting that game out in time. TLOU2's full development lasted from September 2017 to May 2020. Thats less than 3 years. By their own math, thats a $110 million game. Probably a $100 million game.

Lets not forget:
Wasn't the game leaked because some folks/devs are getting problem, their salary are in arrears?
Sony made an internal investigation and somehow gaming media/journalists stopped cover this news. Sony made an article saying that they found those responsable for leaking and the subject litelary died.

 

[sendit]

You’re missing the point, just because it’s been a success this time doesn’t mean this kind of budget and development time can be sustained over different projects and teams.

To me the biggest impact is you need something really safe from an IP and gameplay perspective to break even on this kind of initial cost. And if you sell below expectations for any reason you’re down hundreds of millions - not necessarily a problem for Sony but would be for a third party dev.

Sure, a sizeable buget can destroy smaller studios if the game fails to sell. However, we are talking about Sony. Sony has proved this for the past decade. How much more sustainability data do you need?

I'm actually surprised Halo Infinite didn't destroy 343i, they're hiring again for their next mistake.

 

[Deerock71]

They made like 3 AAA games in 6 years .

It's not the number of games we're talking about. It's the cost.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I don’t understand this, why bring franchise sales into this. Thought this thread was just and the sequels! That’s the only known budget for both TLOU 2 and Horizon 2.

We don’t even know the full sales figure of TLOU 2. Last number officially was over 10mill and we all know we can’t use full $60 price to get true revenue. Due to retailer cuts and some of sales ere at discount!

The other caveat is if these budgets are sustainable then why is Sony doing ports to PC. To me it looks like they need to recoup revenue or get extra revenue to fund these high budgets.

Being a billion dollar franchise is what rewards these types of development investments. I am sure it's well over that number now 3 years later and having a very successful HBO series.

It's simple business logic. Regardless of what some shovelware indie devs or ex-devs have to say, whom all would NOT turn down a $220m development investment. The article is curated for an angle. For every throwaway dev that says this, you will have others that would beg for that type of funding and be gleeful about it.

As for sales arguments on PS4 games, Sony has done $10-$20 sales on their biggest franchises 12-18 months in all last gen (they are not Nintendo). What is this gamer amnesia? Even the 20m+ seller GoW $10 sales 18 months in, which is why I double dipped on digital collections after already saving 20% on physical when GCU was a thing with Best Buy. I still saved money in the end.

It wasn't until this gen where they are holding stronger on their deep sales and not going as low... yet.

 

[Moses85]

Who are these developers?

Daedalic? Now called „Deadalic!“
The Team behind Forspoken?
Respawn with the new Star Wars?
EA with Wild Hearts?
Grove Street with GTA Trilogy?

At the end, TLOU 2 is still a technical masterpiece and was worth every cent at its Launch.

 

[StueyDuck]

It's only not sustainable if it's not returning investment and making profit... I assume both those games did

I don't follow sales numbers too much but I'm sure if they were flops many would have ran to the mountain tops to scream it out.

 

[Bo_Hazem]

Keyword is Competence.

 

[ZoukGalaxy]

Who are these developers?
Daedalic? Now called "Deadalic“ Dead A Lick

Fixed

More seriously: 100% disagree with... who is this already ?!
We need ALSO these big games. I love big games. There is room for everything and I don't want 20 mediocre indie games I will never play instead.

 

[SlimySnake]

Being a billion dollar franchise is what rewards these types of development investments. I am sure it's well over that number now 3 years later and having a very successful HBO series.

It's simple business logic. Regardless of what some shovelware indie devs or ex-devs have to say, whom all would NOT turn down a $220m development investment. The article is curated for an angle. For every throwaway dev that says this, you will have others than would beg for that type of funding and be gleeful about it.

As for sales arguments on PS4 games, Sony has done $10-$20 sales on their biggest franchises 12-18 months in all last gen (they are not Nintendo). What is this gamer amnesia? Even the 20m+ seller GoW $10 sales 18 months in, which is why I double dipped on digital collections after already saving 20% on physical when GCU was a thing with Best Buy. I still saved money in the end.

It wasn't until this gen where they are holding stronger on their deep sales and not going as low... yet.

But GOW sold 2x more copies than TLOU2 in the same time frame despite going on the PS+ Welcome list for PS5 owners just 2.5 years in. Hell, HFW is easily outpacing it having sold 8.4 million units in just over a year. Though to be fair they might be including bundles in this total.

Basically, these games are selling well, but not well enough to justify multiple teams at these studios creating multiple $200 million games. They are moving to GaaS games for a reason.

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I think games like Spiderman and GOW are selling 20 million in a few years like we expect them to, but TLOU, Ghost of Tsushima, HFW and other games like Days Gone and Death Stranding arent there. Sony needs to realize that not every game sells like hogwarts, elden rings, zelda and GoW. Fucking GoT shouldnt be taking 6 years to make. Its sequel shouldve been done in 3 years instead we watched a Sony conference with no TLOU3, No GoT2, no DS3 or a DG2. If these games are going to cost $200 million then even if they sell 10 million in three years, they are not going to bring in the money Sony is expecting from a $220 million investment over the course of 6 long years.

 

[DeepEnigma]

But GOW sold 2x more copies than TLOU2 in the same time frame despite going on the PS+ Welcome list for PS5 owners just 2.5 years in. Hell, HFW is easily outpacing it having sold 8.4 million units in just over a year. Though to be fair they might be including bundles in this total.

Basically, these games are selling well, but not well enough to justify multiple teams at these studios creating multiple $200 million games. They are moving to GaaS games for a reason.

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Horizon Forbidden West - on sale now for 57% off. Compare all the current prices, see histories, and get deal alerts for the next sale at Deku Deals

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The Last of Us Part II | Deku Deals

The Last of Us Part II - on sale now for 25% off. Compare all the current prices, see histories, and get deal alerts for the next sale at Deku Deals

www.dekudeals.com

I think games like Spiderman and GOW are selling 20 million in a few years like we expect them to, but TLOU, Ghost of Tsushima, HFW and other games like Days Gone and Death Stranding arent there. Sony needs to realize that not every game sells like hogwarts, elden rings, zelda and GoW. Fucking GoT shouldnt be taking 6 years to make. Its sequel shouldve been done in 3 years instead we watched a Sony conference with no TLOU3, No GoT2, no DS3 or a DG2. If these games are going to cost $200 million then even if they sell 10 million in three years, they are not going to bring in the money Sony is expecting from a $220 million investment over the course of 6 long years.

And? What is your argument here pertaining to the topic at hand? I laid out why this franchise gets that type of development investment. It's over a billion dollar franchise. GoW gets the same investment as well.

Both get their ROI with their franchises.

 

[yurinka]

If the latest sales figures are accurate, they've made about $700,000,000 off the game

A $480,000,000 profit sounds pretty sustainable to me

According to sources, TLOU franchise sold 37M, since the first installment had a remaster and remake, we'll say 15M for TLOU2.

TLOU (PS3+PS4 remaster, not counting the TLOUP1 remake) already had sold over 20M copies back in 2019 according to Daniel Ahmad (Niko Partners).

As a reference 20M sold at an average of let's say $40 is 800M.

 

[SlimySnake]

And? What is your argument here pertaining to the topic at hand? I laid out why this franchise gets that type of development investment. It's over a billion dollar franchise. GoW gets the same investment as well.

Both get their ROI with their franchises.

Halo is a billion dollar franchise too. You are only as good as your last game when it comes to revenue.

And I pointed out that the ROI just isnt as good for TLOU anymore. Or even Horizon for that matter. Especially not at $200 million. Especially after 5-6 year dev cycles. Thats why Sony is moving towards GaaS. Because creating 10 million sellers like TLOU is not sustainable.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Halo is a billion dollar franchise too. You are only as good as your last game when it comes to revenue.

And I pointed out that the ROI just isnt as good for TLOU anymore. Or even Horizon for that matter. Especially not at $200 million. Especially after 5-6 year dev cycles. Thats why Sony is moving towards GaaS. Because creating 10 million sellers like TLOU is not sustainable.

How did you point that out? If it's not good, there would be no HBO series, let alone a very successful one signed on for another 2 more seasons at minimum. I think people are wanting something to be true so badly, despite everything staring them in the face. They are not slowing anything down on this franchise, at all.

This is not a Halo situation. Even the talent pool/studio management is night and day.

 

[lughnasadh123]

Who better to know if it's sustainable than those putting out a budget and actually working on the games? When they start saying it, then I'll listen.

 

[SlimySnake]

How did you point that out? If it's not good, there would be no HBO series, let alone a very successful one signed on for another 2 more seasons at minimum. I think people are wanting something to be true so badly, despite everything staring them in the face. They are not slowing anything down on this franchise, at all.

This is not a Halo situation. Even the talent pool/studio management is night and day.

Days Gone is getting a tv show too. Means nothing really.

I think the math simply doesnt add up for these $220 million games. They need sell 10 million at full price within a few weeks like GOW, Elden Rings, Hogwarts and Zelda to be considered truly successful. And we all know its just a handful of games that do this. Horizon and especially TLOU2 sales are not going to be sustainable at this rate.

With game costs increasing every year, TLOU3 would likely cost $300-400 million.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Days Gone is getting a tv show too. Means nothing really.

I think the math simply doesnt add up for these $220 million games. They need sell 10 million at full price within a few weeks like GOW, Elden Rings, Hogwarts and Zelda to be considered truly successful. And we all know its just a handful of games that do this. Horizon and especially TLOU2 sales are not going to be sustainable at this rate.

With game costs increasing every year, TLOU3 would likely cost $300-400 million.

I disagree with your reasoning, but ok.

 

[Stooky]

Halo is a billion dollar franchise too. You are only as good as your last game when it comes to revenue.

And I pointed out that the ROI just isnt as good for TLOU anymore. Or even Horizon for that matter. Especially not at $200 million. Especially after 5-6 year dev cycles. Thats why Sony is moving towards GaaS. Because creating 10 million sellers like TLOU is not sustainable.

Sony has proven it is sustainable. all of their 1st party games have been on high end of a game budget since ps3. they have built their 1st and gamers trust to allow it. it’s succesful and award winning. Sony wants a succesful gaas game like everyone else . doesn’t mean all their 1st party studios is working on that. they know where and how their bread is buttered. remember Sony like Nintendo delivers an experience thru 1st devs that’s really only available on their console.

 

[Stamps1646]

The Last of Us: Part 2-$220,000,000 Million budget, 5-year development, 200 employees.

200 employees x 5 years at around 90K contract/salary -$90,000,000 *Guesstimate on average salary*
Marketing Cost -$80,000,000 *Guesstimate*
30/70 split on Full Retail/Discount of 10 million units. 7 million units at $40 + 3 million units at $60 is +$680,000,000 *Guesstimate*

=$510,000,000 Profit *Guesstimate*
-------------

Horizon: Forbidden West - $212,000,000 Million budget, 5-year development, 300 employees

300 employees x 5 years at around 90K contract/salary -$135,000,000 *Guesstimate on average salary*
Marketing Cost -$80,000,000 *Guesstimate*
29/71 split on Full Retail/Discount of 8.4 million units. 6 million units at $40 + 2.4 million units at $60 is +$596,000,000 *Guesstimate*

= $381,000,000 Profit *Guesstimate*

These studios like creating these types of games and Sony allows them the freedom and budget to do so.
If it gets to a point where the profits are not looking well, I'm sure Sony will make adjustments for future projects.

 

[diffusionx]

If you want to make a high-end game (call it AAA if you'd like) this is how much it costs. The choice isn't to make a cheaper high-end game, because then it's not high-end anymore. If you don't like the return you get, you'll just have to stop making these games.

I bet Starfield's final bill is going to be in the $300M-$400M range, not that MS will ever discuss it publicly. I bet EA is spending similar money on Dragon Age and Mass Effect (which is probably a mistake considering it's nu-Bioware). This is just how it is.

 

[skneogaf]

Games like the last of us 2 is the only reason I own a playstation

 

[Fuz]

It's not sustainable in the manner of risk. You are only one 200Million dollar fiasco away from being shit down.

Like Forspoken.

It's understandable why AAA new IPs are so few.

It's a grave they dug themselves.

 

[thebigmanjosh]

So TLOU2 was $220M, which is only $143k/employee/year. That’s pretty low for tech, let alone tech in LA, and they’re competing for some of the same talent in the area. Considering it made back 1.4X profit, I’d say that’s pretty sustainable.

 

[damidu]

depends on the product

though i can see it not being sustainable if you need constant stream of day 1 freebies for your loss leading subscription service.

 

[ozz ex machina]

If you want to make a high-end game (call it AAA if you'd like) this is how much it costs. The choice isn't to make a cheaper high-end game, because then it's not high-end anymore. If you don't like the return you get, you'll just have to stop making these games.

I bet Starfield's final bill is going to be in the $300M-$400M range, not that MS will ever discuss it publicly. I bet EA is spending similar money on Dragon Age and Mass Effect (which is probably a mistake considering it's nu-Bioware). This is just how it is.

There is no fucking way starfield is costing 300-400M what the fuck are you smoking?

I dont think the budget is offensive. But I am looking forward to AI stripping out a lot of these costs in future.

 

[kazuyamishima]

“The Last of Us part II had a budget of $220M”, but according to some people it was profitable, even if it was.

Halo Infinite supposedly had a Budget of $500M, and had awful sales.

I don’t see people going nuts for the latter.

 

[Haint]

According to sources, TLOU franchise sold 37M, since the first installment had a remaster and remake, we'll say 15M for TLOU2.

Let's say every copy was sold at 45$ on average. On that 45$, publisher and developers take from 50 to 70%, the rest is retailers, shipping, other costs. We'll take 60% so, from that 45$, the profit is 27$.

27X15M is 405M. The game coated 220M plus promotion, for this game I would say from 50 to 100M, let's say 70M, so the total cost is 290.

405-290 is 115M. Not bad but not good either.

The break even point was at 11M. Tell me what AAA game sold at least 11M.

So yes, AAA gaming is hardly sustainable.

The majority of sales are digital these days (likely 60%+ in Tlou2 and Horizon 2's case) which is 97% - 98% profit for Sony. Sell through is also hugely front loaded, meaning the majority of sales are at full price. So your hypothetical $27 represents a significant underestimation. Sony's take home profit was probably closer to $45 per unit if you wanted to prorate it equally to every unit sold.

 

[diffusionx]

There is no fucking way starfield is costing 300-400M what the fuck are you smoking?

I dont think the budget is offensive. But I am looking forward to AI stripping out a lot of these costs in future.

I don't see why it wouldn't, granted a good chunk of that money was spent by Bethesda.

 

[SlimySnake]

I don't see why it wouldn't, granted a good chunk of that money was spent by Bethesda.

Bethesda was a 100 person studio as recently as fallout 4. They only expanded recently.

Even if the 300 devs they have now have been working on this game Non stop since fallout 76 came out In 2018, you are no where close to $300-400 million even if we go by these hilariously inflated Sony budgets.

Its probably a 100 million game. Maybe $120 after the year long delay.

Again, the math doesn’t add up. If starfield is $400 million with 300 devs then what is gta6 or rdr2 with 3,000 devs? $3-4 billion ? lol

 

[diffusionx]

Bethesda was a 100 person studio as recently as fallout 4. They only expanded recently.

Even if the 300 devs they have now have been working on this game Non stop since fallout 76 came out In 2018, you are no where close to $300-400 million even if we go by these hilariously inflated Sony budgets.

Its probably a 100 million game. Maybe $120 after the year long delay.

Again, the math doesn’t add up. If starfield is $400 million with 300 devs then what is gta6 or rdr2 with 3,000 devs? $3-4 billion ? lol

bethesda has been working on starfield since Fallout 4 came out. 76 was made by a different team, in Austin. GTA5 was like $250 million 10 years ago. RDR2 supposedly cost around $500M. Yea, GTA6 is probably a $750M-$1B game actually.

edit: I am really not sure why people consistently low-ball this stuff despite all evidence to the contrary. Take what you think it is and double it and you'll be closer to the mark, for basically every game.

 

[NecrosaroIII]

I haven't enjoyed a AAA game in 20 years. Massive budgets leads to publishers demanding safe (boring) games.

 

[Johnny Concrete]

These are the same budgets as big blockbuster movies.

Which is something you watch for 100 minutes and then forget about it.

 

[Shubh_C63]

These are the same budgets as big blockbuster movies.

Which is something you watch for 100 minutes and then forget about it.

That's an apt comparison actually. They also take 2 years to make and 200M usd movies could only hope for 700M USD as their best return WW. Most won't reach Billion even if you're Marvel now. Games have more merchandising potential than any movie also and we forgot multiplayer skins whatnot.

As long as market doesn't get oversaturated.

 

[Team Andromeda]

It's not the number of games we're talking about. It's the cost.

I was responding to this comment


"And then there's Nintendo: pumping out AAA games on AA budgets"

 

[Slothbeing1209]

I haven't enjoyed a AAA game in 20 years. Massive budgets leads to publishers demanding safe (boring) games.

Tlou p2 is a safe game????

 

[SilverLeaf]

The most shocking information in this whole thread is that $100M was thrown at Forspoken. Who in their right mind gave the OK on that decision?

 

[Bkdk]

And that's why sony is worried about MS, because sony's business strategy is unsustainable, once they are faced off with a competitor with significant more money than them, they will be done for if they continue down this path.

 

[genesisblock]

The question is, is $200 million the standard for development budget or will it balloon for next-gen? In that case, profit will start averaging down.

 

[Drizzlehell]

So much money wasted on such a disappointing game.

The gaming industry has truly matched the movie industry in terms of absolute fuckery of the highest echelon, and it only took them half as much time, lol.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

I haven't enjoyed a AAA game in 20 years. Massive budgets leads to publishers demanding safe (boring) games.

TLOU2, a sequel from one of the most beloved new IPs from the past 10 years, that killed off its main character right at the start was safe? The same game you controlled a lesbian main character (Ellie) AND the killer of said beloved main character? (Abby)

TLOU2 might just be one of the least safe big AAA games from the past few decades. There's a reason it's usually compared with MGS2 in some regards and some of its backlash happened for the same reason actually.

 

[Gorgon]

I think people are forgetting that what matters for companies like Sony and MS is profitability of the whole division, not necessarily game by game per se. These big games attract people to your console/service. Some people will buy a PS for TLoU. Some will buy it for Uncharted. Some will buy it for Spiderman. Some buy it for several of these. And it goes on and on. People then subscribe to your subscription service, which brings more money. People also build libraries on your service by buying third party titles from which these companies get 30% cuts or so per sale. This increases the total profit of the division (and company) even if each of these 200-300 million dollar games don't make huge profits per se. But they don't need to give back 200% returns on investment. That's why this whole "it isn't sustainable!" outcry misses the point.

 

[UnNamed]

The majority of sales are digital these days (likely 60%+ in Tlou2 and Horizon 2's case) which is 97% - 98% profit for Sony.

97% is not plausible even if servers are powered with the Power of Love like the Care Bears.
Servers cost: energy, maintainance, issues, etc.
Consider that there are many (and many) chances severs for PSN are not entirely property of Sony, many of them could be Azure and AWS and other partners because it's easier and practical.

To balance any other cost, TLOU is sold now at 25€ here now. 40/45 seems to me a good estimate. Let's make 50? Doesn't change that much, since I underestimate other costs.

TLOU (PS3+PS4 remaster, not counting the TLOUP1 remake) already had sold over 20M copies back in 2019 according to Daniel Ahmad (Niko Partners).

As a reference 20M sold at an average of let's say $40 is 800M.

The Last of Us franchise has sold 37 million copies in 9 years

That's a lot of grisly executions and clicker deaths.

www.gamedeveloper.com

I assumed Tlou2 was the one which sold less.

 

[deriks]

This problem is kinda happening in the movie business too

Some movies that are 200 million are just breaking even, and some movies that costs 20 million are getting 30 million in sales, which is a good profit

Not every game or movie needs to have the biggest budget ever. If a studio do a couple big games and a bunch of small games in a whole generation, chances are that the business is going to be great. If you don't believe, just fucking see Nintendo. They're doing this shit since ever, and they're by far the richest

 

[Hardensoul]

And that's why sony is worried about MS, because sony's business strategy is unsustainable, once they are faced off with a competitor with significant more money than them, they will be done for if they continue down this path.

Yea, CoD over a billion every year! Imagine the profit margin compared to Last of Us or every game they fund.