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[Represent.]

TLOU2 might have made its money back but it's clearly not sustainable given how Sony themselves are switching to 60% gaas tash vs 40% AAA top tier single player exclusives going forward. this year simply proves that. Only one AAA single player game from their premiere studios with absolutely fuck all slated for next year.

TLOU3 will take 6 years to make, likely get delayed by another year because of covid, and come out by 2027. Thats 1 game per gen from Naughty Dog. Horizon 3 is likely 5 years away. SSM's next game is 5 years away. Tsushima 2 is likely a 2026 title. that leaves Wolverine and Spiderman as the two big sony games set to come out between now and 2026.

The rest are all quick GaaS cash grabs because sony knows that these long dev cycles and expensive games are not sustainable.

Its time to go back to the 8-10 hour AAA game. It was once the norm and now its scoffed at.

All it will take is for some dev with clout to do it, and have it review well and sell a ton. Everyone else will follow suit.
Its a copycat industry

 

[Balducci30]

That’s not that unsustainable at all?

Many blockbuster movies spend that amount within in a couple years and probably make less profit

 

[Deerock71]

Well of course, that's the primary difference between a self-funded indie developer and a mega-publisher backed first party studio.

And then there's Nintendo: pumping out AAA games on AA budgets.

 

[Arkangelus0]

And then there's Nintendo: pumping out AAA games on AA budgets.

Because Nintendo is smart as fuck, Xenoblade 2 was madre by 40 people, 3 of the team programers, and some outsorcing, in 2 years

When the main team was helping with botw

 

[AmuroChan]

And then there's Nintendo: pumping out AAA games on AA budgets.

And Nintendo is smart to do that because they're not chasing graphical fidelity and award winning performances. You can save a lot of money if you don't have to hire expensive actors that have to do voice acting and motion capture. Nintendo focuses on gameplay, which they're best in class at. They don't care about having a full-time environmental artist who does nothing but draw the most realistic looking trees in every game, like a Naughty Dog probably has.

 

[Danjin44]

Because Nintendo is smart as fuck, Xenoblade 2 was madre by 40 people, 3 of the team programers, and some outsorcing, in 2 years

When the main team was helping with botw

Praise

 

[Raonak]

Sony's big games are some of the most highly polished, highly performant, and bug-free games you'll find on the market.
It's good that games like them exist to push the boundaries of being a premium experience.


there's a problem in the indie space in that it's completely flooded with great games.
Are these 20 indie games actually gonna get enough traction to make a solid return?

 

[DownLikeBCPowder]

Because Nintendo is smart as fuck, Xenoblade 2 was madre by 40 people, 3 of the team programers, and some outsorcing, in 2 years

When the main team was helping with botw

I finally got a copy of that recently.. I beat Xenoblade way back when it first came out - am I good to just start on 2 or should I re beat the first game to catch up on the universe? I'm not especially inclined to..


Agree with those saying it is somewhat sustainable - not every game is costing 200 mil USD and there is often a reason for it depending on the game and they would not be plowing this kind of money into any old game - there are expectations of return as a foundation for such decision making.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Maybe I should put it this way. Why are these studios getting unlimited funds in the first place? The reason is because they produce results. Results stem from competence.

Give a mediocre studio the same budget and it simply would not work.

Naughty Dog themselves have made better games than TLOU 2 for lower budget.

Its time to go back to the 8-10 hour AAA game. It was once the norm and now its scoffed at.

All it will take is for some dev with clout to do it, and have it review well and sell a ton. Everyone else will follow suit.
Its a copycat industry

People will complain about $70. They already complain despite them being meaty games.

If Sony price them less than 70, they will run the risk of themselves being called AA/ indie style games.

 

[Crayon]

Its time to go back to the 8-10 hour AAA game. It was once the norm and now its scoffed at.

All it will take is for some dev with clout to do it, and have it review well and sell a ton. Everyone else will follow suit.
Its a copycat industry

Short games have to be really fucking good. Most people consider the size of a game pretty important. Some want more playtime because of money but most want to play for a long time once they find a game they like.

We like for a game to be over lol. "I was sad when it was over" yeah right. Finally on to next one of the 100 that everyone's been talking about.

 

[killatopak]

Naughty Dog themselves have made better games than TLOU 2 for lower budget.

That’s very subjective but in this case I agree with you. The success of those games earned them the right to develop games with higher budget. The same with Rockstar.

Think about how much lower HZD’s budget was compared to its sequel. The success of it gave permission to the budget of its sequel.

Well what happens if you fail? You get Resident Evil 7. Their developers was cut from over 600 during RE6 to just over 100 in RE7. It has to prove itself again.

 

[sono]

5 years, $200m, 300 developers - ok that is a big investment

 

[vaibhavpisal]

That’s very subjective but in this case I agree with you. The success of those games earned them the right to develop games with higher budget. The same with Rockstar.

Rockstar games by definition need that budget. So that's fine. Not to mention, they have reached mainstream, so they definitely should not skimp on budget.

Well what happens if you fail? You get Resident Evil 7. Their developers was cut from over 600 during RE6 to just over 100 in RE7. It has to prove itself again.

Loved RE7. That's a good thing for me. Hopefully they won't make same mistake again now that RE series is consistent 10 million seller.

 

[Silent Viper]

The game made Sony over a billion dollars minimum the first year. It's highly sustainable.

Source?

 

[Lethal01]

TLOU2 might have made its money back but it's clearly not sustainable given how Sony themselves are switching to 60% gaas tash vs 40% AAA top tier single player exclusives going forward. this year simply proves that. Only one AAA single player game from their premiere studios with absolutely fuck all slated for next year

They are a corporation, so rather than it being "unsustainable" it could simply be the fact they want to make as much money as physically possible which they see Gaas doing.

Why settle for just being "sustainable"

 

[CGNoire]

"20-30 incredible indie games"
"Incredible"

Well thats some wishfull thinking.

 

[arkhamguy123]

TLOU2 might have made its money back but it's clearly not sustainable given how Sony themselves are switching to 60% gaas tash vs 40% AAA top tier single player exclusives going forward. this year simply proves that. Only one AAA single player game from their premiere studios with absolutely fuck all slated for next year.

TLOU3 will take 6 years to make, likely get delayed by another year because of covid, and come out by 2027. Thats 1 game per gen from Naughty Dog. Horizon 3 is likely 5 years away. SSM's next game is 5 years away. Tsushima 2 is likely a 2026 title. that leaves Wolverine and Spiderman as the two big sony games set to come out between now and 2026.

The rest are all quick GaaS cash grabs because sony knows that these long dev cycles and expensive games are not sustainable.

That bearded guy who looked like the Mexican Santa clause at the last PlayStation E3 who used to work at Sony was actually ringing this alarm bell years and years ago.

It’s come to pass

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Didn't read past Rami Ismail's name. Guy is a sore loser (his last OK game was Luftrausers back in who knows when) and almost every take he supports is usually trash.

And if we talk about unsustainable, last time I checked it was indie darlings like tinyBuild and Devolver that were tanking hard and both companies has posted a very confusing financial results. Not Sony and sure as hell not TLoU franchise, that generated hundreds of dollars of revenue despite some very strong reactions from the sequel. And don't forget about that little TV show they've got. I'm convinced that profits from projects like this is usually what keeps niche titles like Returnal afloat, really.

 

[Team Andromeda]

And then there's Nintendo: pumping out AAA games on AA budgets.

They made like 3 AAA games in 6 years .

 

[rofif]

If they would’ve cut out all the Abby segments, it would be been a better game, cheaper and higher profit.

You are right. Cut out all the Abby into her own, much better game!!!!

 

[Arkangelus0]

You are right. Cut out all the Abby into her own, much better game!!!!

THIS!!!

I say this since day 1

That game need to be 2 parts, Abby and Ellie

Not only the pacing was destroyed, the game was si big the Last chapter fill horrible because of that

In 2 games it would be much better experience and money Worth too

 

[Tomi]

Can someone plz explain why developing costs are going up when we have new tools and programs to speed up developing process?

 

[Arkangelus0]

Can someone plz explain why developing costs are going up when we have new tools and programs to speed up developing process?

Year by year you need more people for everything
Need raise those salaries at least for inflation
Development cycles are volátiles, sometimes you cant avoid a delay
We have tools to speed some process, But others takes more time then previous Gen
You cant use the new tools on all the graphics engines

 

[TheGrat1]

People keep saying that these huge budget games will have to be "safe" from a design standpoint but would anyone say that about the TLOU II? It was controversial as hell.

 

[Roberts]

I don’t work at Sony so I don’t have the slightest clue if their big games are sustainable or not, but it is obvious that budgets will get even bigger and at one point the bubble will burst. It has happened numerous times in film business and every time I reenergized the industry and brought a new era with tons of classics. The biggest one was probably at the end of 60’s where gigantic epics were not that interesting any more and opened the doors to such guys as De Palma, Scorsese, Spielberg, Bogdanovich, Coppola and so on.

 

[Bojji]

Indie games LOL

 

[intheinbetween]

It will remain sustainable until sales decrease or simply they don't cover the $220m investment, in that case that would lead to raise MSRP again

 

[mxbison]

And personally I don’t want to see games like this, super safe focus group tested AAA bloated with nonsense.

Yeah, that's why people had all these salty meltdowns over the game and review bombed it 1 minute after midnight on release, because it was such a safe approach...

 

[drganon]

The world needs more indie 2d rogue like metroidvania games.

 

[YeulEmeralda]

So thinking about these numbers, can Gamepass support super big titles like that consistently? Guess if Gamepass becomes the huge next big thing will it change gaming as we know it forever?

Look at Netflix. They're killing off their cheapest subscription plan and constantly raising prices to keep up with spending on content.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

The game made Sony over a billion dollars minimum the first year. It's highly sustainable.

Yeah, until it doesnt.

 

[Guilty_AI]

People keep saying that these huge budget games will have to be "safe" from a design standpoint but would anyone say that about the TLOU II? It was controversial as hell.

Survival horror, zombies, crafting, standard revenge plot, stealth-action, focus on cinematic elements and visuals... sounds very safe.
There was about one or two unsafe elements in it out of everything and neither was going to stop people from buying it (especially when they intended to keep them secrets until release).

 

[The Fuzz damn you!]

That bearded guy who looked like the Mexican Santa clause at the last PlayStation E3 who used to work at Sony was actually ringing this alarm bell years and years ago.

It’s come to pass

What has?

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

TLOU2 might have made its money back but it's clearly not sustainable given how Sony themselves are switching to 60% gaas tash vs 40% AAA top tier single player exclusives going forward. this year simply proves that. Only one AAA single player game from their premiere studios with absolutely fuck all slated for next year.

TLOU3 will take 6 years to make, likely get delayed by another year because of covid, and come out by 2027. Thats 1 game per gen from Naughty Dog. Horizon 3 is likely 5 years away. SSM's next game is 5 years away. Tsushima 2 is likely a 2026 title. that leaves Wolverine and Spiderman as the two big sony games set to come out between now and 2026.

The rest are all quick GaaS cash grabs because sony knows that these long dev cycles and expensive games are not sustainable.

TLOU2 was sustainable...the problem is that game was approved in like 2014/2015. We're in 2023. TLOU3 will cost more than 300M plus marketing. Now THAT will never be sustainable. Each gen has production costs increasing like this.

About "Wolverine and Spiderman as the two big sony games set to come out between now and 2026"...come on now, lmao. Let's not think only about games announced. We have studios like Bluepoint working on something since like 2018/2019, Team Asobi, we got many of the studios you mentioned working on multiple projects like Naughty Dog as well.

The thought of Sony's studios only having Wolverine after this year's Spider-Man 2 and before 2026 is hilarious.

 

[Helghan]

I don't see a problem with these numbers, and it seems pretty sustainable. You don't see indie directors cry about this in the movie industry.

 

[Blendernaut]

Lol. Not sustainable? But Gamepass is?
ha.
These "not sustainable" games were actually pretty profitable, in fact.

 

[Shubh_C63]

It's not sustainable in the manner of risk. You are only one 200Million dollar fiasco away from being shit down.

Like Forspoken.

It's understandable why AAA new IPs are so few.

 

[Zoloft]

Not if you are as talented as Naughty America

 

[Kiya's Guard]

Its high risk high reward, always has been. Sadly the costs are getting so outrageous fewer studios try to make them big titles (even though if the revenue is higher than ever)

 

[unlurkified]

So glad the Thirsty Suitors devs chimed in on this. Feel like I wouldn’t know what to think otherwise.

 

[Fbh]

People keep saying that these huge budget games will have to be "safe" from a design standpoint but would anyone say that about the TLOU II? It was controversial as hell.

It was risky from a storytelling point, not design. The design was classic ND and classic first party Sony in almost every way.

ND used to be a dev that introduced a new IP every gen. On PS4 they spent the entire gen doing sequels, we are nearly 3 years into this gen and we only got a TLOU 1 remake and the only other announced project they have is a TLOU multiplayer GAAS.

When they finally reveal a new IP I'm pretty sure it will be a story heavy cinematic third person game with amazing production values, a realistic art style, and gameplay that mixes shooting, walking and talking sequences, light puzzle elements and the occasional big setpiece moment

 

[DenchDeckard]

One or two duds of this level and you are fooked.

People can talk all day about how well its done but did it meet internal projections, we will never know and its not for us to worry about I guess.

The evidence is clear from sonys recent pivot to gaas. They wouldn't be making these changes and pivoting so hard if everything was roses.

 

[diffusionx]

Whenever I read something like "developers respond" or "developers react" I know I am going to get some self-indulgent garbage from a narcissist on Twitter, and sure enough...

Anyway, I am surprised at people who think a game like this doesn't cost $220 million. As people have pointed out over and over, a big multiplatform game cost $50M-$100M to make when the platforms were the Xbox 360 and PS3. That was a long time ago, and production values have only gone up since then. If you see a big "AAA" type game, it is going to cost nine figures, period. Maybe a few devs here or there (like Remedy) have hardcore cost controls, but they are the exception not the rule, and they are also more likely to publicly discuss how much they spent. But it is not indicative of the reality.

As for sustainable or not, well it is clearly sustainable because Sony is still doing it. But only a few publishers are capable of operating at this scale these days. Sony, Capcom, maybe Rockstar. Even ostensibly successful ones like EA and Ubisoft clearly struggle with it. Activision has operated at this level with COD for a long time but the seams are starting to show.

 

[SlimySnake]

TLOU2 was sustainable...the problem is that game was approved in like 2014/2015. We're in 2023. TLOU3 will cost more than 300M plus marketing. Now THAT will never be sustainable. Each gen has production costs increasing like this.

About "Wolverine and Spiderman as the two big sony games set to come out between now and 2026"...come on now, lmao. Let's not think only about games announced. We have studios like Bluepoint working on something since like 2018/2019, Team Asobi, we got many of the studios you mentioned working on multiple projects like Naughty Dog as well.

The thought of Sony's studios only having Wolverine after this year's Spider-Man 2 and before 2026 is hilarious.

Team Asobi is not making a $200 million game and BP is making a remake. I am talking about big games like HFW, GOW and TLOU2 here. You know the topic of the thread?

I am sure Sony will ship MLB The Show between 2023-2026. I am sure some VR games will be shipped. This is about AAA games like Spiderman 2, Wolverine, TLOU3, Horizon 3 etc.

 

[Hardensoul]

"nOt sUsTaInAbLe"

The Last Of Us Franchise Has Made Over A Billion Dollars In Revenue

As of November 2020, The Last of Us franchise has grossed a staggering $1 billion in revenue worldwide, according to a former PS developer.

exputer.com

I don’t understand this, why bring franchise sales into this. Thought this thread was just and the sequels! That’s the only known budget for both TLOU 2 and Horizon 2.

We don’t even know the full sales figure of TLOU 2. Last number officially was over 10mill and we all know we can’t use full $60 price to get true revenue. Due to retailer cuts and some of sales ere at discount!

The other caveat is if these budgets are sustainable then why is Sony doing ports to PC. To me it looks like they need to recoup revenue or get extra revenue to fund these high budgets.

 

[SlimySnake]

I don’t understand this, why bring franchise sales into this. Thought this thread was just and the sequels! That’s the only known budget for both TLOU 2 and Horizon 2.

We don’t even know the full sales figure of TLOU 2. Last number officially was over 10mill and we all know we can’t use full $60 price to get true revenue. Due to retailer cuts and some of sales ere at discount!

The other caveat is if these budgets are sustainable then why is Sony doing ports to PC. To me it looks like they need to recoup revenue or get extra revenue to fund these high budgets.

TLOU2 sold 4 million in 3 days. Then the next official number we got was 10 million nearly 3 years later. The game was consistently on sale for $20 for the last 3 years. I think Sony wanted 20 million sales by now. Thats typically what happens to games that sell over 5 million units in their first month alone.

I am sure its made a profit even at the inflated $220 million budget. But at an average price of $40 you are looking at $400 million in revenue minus marketing costs plus the 20% retailer cut and another 10% in shipping costs. Though covid and a higher digital sales ratio probably helped them mitigate some of that. They probably made $50 million in profit which isnt enough for a 6 year investment.

Of course I know for a fact that they are lying when they say this game took 6 years and 300 devs when we know for a fact that the entire production team was heads down on Uncharted 4 until 2016 and then had an even brutal crunch period for lost legacy until august 2017 when the entire studio had to work on getting that game out in time. TLOU2's full development lasted from September 2017 to May 2020. Thats less than 3 years. By their own math, thats a $110 million game. Probably a $100 million game.

We know from the Horizon documentary that it cost $110 million euros. Sony tells FTC that it cost $210 million? They are clearly inflating these budgets.

 

[mckmas8808]

And Nintendo is smart to do that because they're not chasing graphical fidelity and award winning performances. You can save a lot of money if you don't have to hire expensive actors that have to do voice acting and motion capture. Nintendo focuses on gameplay, which they're best in class at. They don't care about having a full-time environmental artist who does nothing but draw the most realistic looking trees in every game, like a Naughty Dog probably has.

And that god we have both Nintendo and Sony to provide us with both styles of games. I'd hate to live in a world where one of them didn't exist.

 

[DenchDeckard]

TLOU2 sold 4 million in 3 days. Then the next official number we got was 10 million nearly 3 years later. The game was consistently on sale for $20 for the last 3 years. I think Sony wanted 20 million sales by now. Thats typically what happens to games that sell over 5 million units in their first month alone.

I am sure its made a profit even at the inflated $220 million budget. But at an average price of $40 you are looking at $400 million in revenue minus marketing costs plus the 20% retailer cut and another 10% in shipping costs. Though covid and a higher digital sales ratio probably helped them mitigate some of that. They probably made $50 million in profit which isnt enough for a 6 year investment.

Of course I know for a fact that they are lying when they say this game took 6 years and 300 devs when we know for a fact that the entire production team was heads down on Uncharted 4 until 2016 and then had an even brutal crunch period for lost legacy until august 2017 when the entire studio had to work on getting that game out in time. TLOU2's full development lasted from September 2017 to May 2020. Thats less than 3 years. By their own math, thats a $110 million game. Probably a $100 million game.

We know from the Horizon documentary that it cost $110 million euros. Sony tells FTC that it cost $210 million? They are clearly inflating these budgets.

The game was £9.99 in the UK within 18 months of launch...and that was at the retailer GAME which is a rip off. I remember thinking WTF when I saw that.

Millions of those sales must be at half price or less I imagine.

 

[Hardensoul]

TLOU2 sold 4 million in 3 days. Then the next official number we got was 10 million nearly 3 years later. The game was consistently on sale for $20 for the last 3 years. I think Sony wanted 20 million sales by now. Thats typically what happens to games that sell over 5 million units in their first month alone.

I am sure its made a profit even at the inflated $220 million budget. But at an average price of $40 you are looking at $400 million in revenue minus marketing costs plus the 20% retailer cut and another 10% in shipping costs. Though covid and a higher digital sales ratio probably helped them mitigate some of that. They probably made $50 million in profit which isnt enough for a 6 year investment.

Of course I know for a fact that they are lying when they say this game took 6 years and 300 devs when we know for a fact that the entire production team was heads down on Uncharted 4 until 2016 and then had an even brutal crunch period for lost legacy until august 2017 when the entire studio had to work on getting that game out in time. TLOU2's full development lasted from September 2017 to May 2020. Thats less than 3 years. By their own math, thats a $110 million game. Probably a $100 million game.

We know from the Horizon documentary that it cost $110 million euros. Sony tells FTC that it cost $210 million? They are clearly inflating these budgets.

Do we know that marketing cost of TLOU2, from what’s been said the court doc numbers aren’t including marketing. Doesn’t that also factor into how profitable the game is?

 

[Alan Wake]

Yes, TLOU makes money. But with budgets like that studios will be less keen to take risks. So we'll get sequels and safe bets.