November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9

dolemite said:
I thought Nintendo was supposed to give a talk on Monday, did it actually happen?
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No it did not. The least controversial explanation is that Nintendo is waiting for December 12th (NPD release) to brag about their Black Friday sales numbers...or some arbitrary date before then.
 
Sony announced that PS4 sold-through more than 1.4 million units in the Americas between November 15th and December 1st (1.4 Americas + 0.7 Europe / Australia / New Zealand = 2.1 million worldwide).
The NPD report refers to USA PS4 sales from November 15th through November 30th.

Canada is usually 10% of the North American market (140K in this case).
Sony didn't report on Latin American sales, so they were presumably not very good (Let's say 30K in total).

Assuming Latin American sales were horrible, that means USA sell-through would be around 1.23 million.

So guys, these 1.1 million estimates might be a little low.
 
I'm more confused at the somewhat high Vita predictions some even close to last year. The bundles weren't nearly as good, the system isn't being advertised, the 3DS/2DS will take the entire younger market in that space and there are 2 new consoles. I hope the 2DS is what Nintendo needed for the 3DS in America because if not I think the momentum will fall out in January. I kind of want to see the platform that they are being aggressive with do well.
 
Aquamarine said:
It's a given that Wii U is going to be above 100K this month...anything lower is a bit silly.

The Wii U managed 94.6K with a SKU reshuffling "Deluxe price cut" and Wind Waker HD...and this month has the Mario & Luigi bundle, a super-ramped up advertising campaign, Super Mario 3D World, and Black Friday sales. I live in New York City, and I've actually seen a ton of Wii U commercials...the last time that happened was around the Wii U launch.

Early Black Friday anecdotal evidence also hints towards some number above 100K.

The question is...how much above 100K is it going to be? If it's below 272K, it will be the lowest Black Friday sales Nintendo has ever had for one of its modern consoles in its prime.

To be anywhere close to a success, Wii U really needs to be around its launch sales, or 400K (aka. GameCube levels). Although, given the Wii U's current situation, I find that unlikely.
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What about 3DS, instead? I'm expecting a million+, to be honest, given the BF deals and this Holiday lineup.
 
Mpl90 said:
What about 3DS, instead? I'm expecting a million+, to be honest, given the BF deals and this Holiday lineup.
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Yeah Nintendo really went all out for BF. The surprise M&L bundle was a nice surprise. The contrast between Wii U and 3DS is quite amazing.
 
metalslimer said:
Yeah Nintendo really went all out for BF. The surprise M&L bundle was a nice surprise. The contrast between Wii U and 3DS is quite amazing.
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I suppose they can definitely hit 1 million with 3DS because of the difference between this year and last year.

Last year
- October 2012 - Between 213k and 250k, IIRC
- November 2012 - 540k
Black Friday initiatives:
1)Paper Mario: Sticker Star on November 18th
2)Red 3DS + Super Mario 3D Land - $169.99
3)Only NSMB2 launched in August as strong recent "back up" title for the Holidays
3DS sales during Black Friday 2012 week - 250k

This year
- October 2013 - 452k, thanks to Pokémon and 2DS
Black Friday initiatives
1)Zelda: A Link Between Worlds on November 22nd + Pokémon as recent "back up" title for the Holidays
2)Zelda 3DS XL on November 22nd
3)Cobalt Blue 3DS + Luigi's Mansion at $169.99 ($149.99 in some stores)
4)3DS XL (Zelda one included) at $149.99 at Target
5)2DS at $99.99 at Wal-Mart

I just can't see 3DS with lower than 2x last year's BF sales. I'd say it's possibly more around 600k. And, thus, 1+ million for the whole November.

Only "more than musings" infos we have so far
- 3DS XL being among Target's BF top sellers
- Toys'r'Us selling 7,500 3DS XL units at $145 on eBay in less than two hours, around mid-night / 2AM in US.
 
Mpl90 said:
I suppose they can definitely hit 1 million with 3DS because of the difference between this year and last year.

Last year
- October 2012 - Between 213k and 250k, IIRC
- November 2012 - 540k
Black Friday initiatives:
1)Paper Mario: Sticker Star on November 18th
2)Red 3DS + Super Mario 3D Land - $169.99
3)Only NSMB2 launched in August as strong recent "back up" title for the Holidays
3DS sales during Black Friday 2012 week - 250k

This year
- October 2013 - 452k, thanks to Pokémon and 2DS
Black Friday initiatives
1)Zelda: A Link Between Worlds on November 22nd + Pokémon as recent "back up" title for the Holidays
2)Zelda 3DS XL on November 22nd
3)Cobalt Blue 3DS + Luigi's Mansion at $169.99 ($149.99 in some stores)
4)3DS XL (Zelda one included) at $149.99 at Target
5)2DS at $99.99 at Wal-Mart

I just can't see 3DS with lower than 2x last year's BF sales. I'd say it's possibly more around 600k. And, thus, 1+ million for the whole November.

Only "more than musings" infos we have so far
- 3DS XL being among Target's BF top sellers
- Toys'r'Us selling 7,500 3DS XL units at $145 on eBay in less than two hours, around mid-night / 2AM in US.
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Right, the only reason I hesitate to go above a million is the great competition from all the new launches.
 
[360] 750K
[3DS] 1050K
[PS3] 650K
[PS4] 1100K
[PSV] 150K
[WIU] 250K
[XB1] 850K
 
[360] 700k
[3DS] 750k
[PS3] 500k
[PS4] 1150k
[PSV] 100k
[WIU] 250k
[XB1] 800k

I'm probably overestimating the XB1 but otherwise I feel good about this prediction. By the math from House's statement the PS4 would've done around 1.2 million in the US but I'm hedging slightly.
 
michaelius said:
Hmm i wonder if i should consider lack of PR as a sign to reduce predictions since it seems everyone has something to hide.
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Sony have essentially produced PR for NA for the PS4 by virtue of mathematics. I imagine the PS3 numbers are not good though.

I'm surprised Nintendo hasn't put out some sort of PR about the 3DS and Pokemon reaching certain numbers, with some vague mention of the Wii U having it's best month of the year or something.

Microsoft can no longer trumpet the 360 being the top selling console, and the lack of PR affirms to me that the XB1 has not surpassed 1M units in the US as this would be a nice round figure to trumpet. Not even an "Xbox Family" press release?
 
Lexxus said:
edit: I'm just wondering why PSV is not included for points?
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e.g. A 5K difference (i.e. normally "really" close) could be a 20% reduction in points. That's too severe a drop in points to be included with the other systems. Wii U will be joining Vita in the "units, not points" club next year for the same reason.
 
donny2112 said:
e.g. A 5K difference (i.e. normally "really" close) could be a 20% reduction in points. That's too severe a drop in points to be included with the other systems. Wii U will be joining Vita in the "units, not points" club next year for the same reason.
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Confidence!
 
I'll post my predictions since it is evident that we won't get Black Friday numbers, at least this November's NPD prediction will be more fun.

My main concern for the correct hardware ranking is 3DS followed by both Microsoft systems, and I desperately need those extra 10 points :P

[360] 760,000
[3DS] 940,000
[PS3] 500,000
[PS4] 1,135,000
[PSV] 180,000
[WIU] 275,000
[XB1] 825,000
 
Never done this, completely random try.

[360] 500k
[3DS] 950k
[PS3] 450k
[PS4] 1313k
[PSV] 45k
[WIU] 250k
[XB1] 750k
 
Hmm, Some of you have really high estimates for 3DS considering it did 540k units last year in November. Pokemon + 2DS launch doubled October sales over 2012, so I guess I will go with a little under double for November.

[PS4] 1250K
[3DS] 1000K
[XB1] 975K
[360] 790K
[PS3] 500K
[WIU] 250K
[PSV] 150k

EDIT: changed a few numbers.
 
[360] 50,000
[3DS] 350,000
[PS3] 40,000
[PS4] 1,400,000
[PSV] 60,000
[WIU] 35,000
[XB1] 1,200,000

Just a thought.
 
[PS4] 1232K
[PS3] 423K
[PSV] 115K (I weep tears for this system every night)
[XB1] 1039K
[360] 577K
[3DS] 1179K
[WIU] 291K
[WII] 219K

Software Ranking Predictions

1. Call of Duty: Ghosts (360, PS3, PS4, XB1, PC, WIU)
2. Battlefield 4 (360, PS4, XB1, PS3, PC)
3. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag (PS4, 360, XB1, PS3, PC, WIU)
4. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3)
5. Just Dance 2014 (WII, 360, PS4, XB1, WIU, PS3)
6. Skylanders: Swap Force (WII, 360, PS3, WIU, PS4, XB1, 3DS)
7. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (3DS)
8. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS4, XB1, PS3)
9. Killzone: Shadow Fall (PS4)
10. Pokémon X (3DS)
 
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