• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

C

CosmicQueso

Member
Aggregate predictions are quite optimistic.

If accurate, would equate to a little over 10% growth vs YA including a huge approx. 40% bump on Wii U and approx. +50% on PS4 versus last year.

Hope it's right, but would be a bit shocked tbh.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
donny2112 said:
Also, I'm going to assume that Welfare didn't mean to predict 3DS sales of 4.7m for the month. (~_^) (Edit: See Welfare's comment on it now. I just assumed it was an order of magnitude error and deleted an extra zero to make it 467K.)
Click to expand...

Ah good. Not that crazy :p
 
B

Bluenoser

Member
donny2112 said:
Happy Birthday, Ryng_Tolu! Here's hoping Splatoon brings you an early Christmas present!

My take on PS4/XB1 ratios for November is that the consoles sold in Black Friday week may be dead even. The early Infoscout numbers point to this, they were both mostly available for $299, and consumers don't really seem to care for one or the other that much at Christmas. However, I think the earlier month sales with BlOps3 LE PS4 and more importantly the Vader PS4 with Star Wars fever so high will push PS4 over the top. Also on 3DS, I believe in Wal-Mart. $129 3DSXL (not New variety) will carry the system higher than most predict to possibly ~flat YOY (it's still a declining system, after all).

Also, I'm going to assume that Welfare didn't mean to predict 3DS sales of 4.7m for the month. (~_^) (Edit: See Welfare's comment on it now. I just assumed it was an order of magnitude error and deleted an extra zero to make it 467K.)

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2015

1. PS4 - 1257K
2. XB1 - 1108K
3. 3DS - 425K
4. WIU - 334K
Click to expand...

You grabbed every prediction from the whole thread and averaged them? Wow, I'm assuming you must have had a tool of some sort to do that automatically for you? If not, and you did it manually, my hat's off to you for the effort.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Aggregate predictions are quite optimistic.

If accurate, would equate to a little over 10% growth vs YA including a huge approx. 40% bump on Wii U and approx. +50% on PS4 versus last year.

Hope it's right, but would be a bit shocked tbh.
Click to expand...

Hasn't that been the case for most of this year?
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Aggregate predictions are quite optimistic.

If accurate, would equate to a little over 10% growth vs YA including a huge approx. 40% bump on Wii U and approx. +50% on PS4 versus last year.

Hope it's right, but would be a bit shocked tbh.
Click to expand...
I remember last year Sony did not enough supply retail with GTA bundles and it get sold out fast at BF... this year they didn't make the same mistake.

So I guess they will be up YoY by a good percentage.

Wii U is selling way better than last year in my anecdotal perspective too.
 
S

Sterok

Member
I know we all love MS PR, but do we like Sony or Nintendo PR better? If I recall Sony's is consistently boring while Nintendo tends to cherry pick something they can brag about and say nothing when they've got nothing.

2.3 million combined for PS4/XB1 would definitely be high, but I wouldn't be too shocked if it's around there. Just this time. Call of Duty is severely gimped on last-gen consoles, and Fallout + Battlefront should be great system sellers. I do suspect this will be the only time they reach that high together though, as everything for price + software situation works out that they should be attractive for lots of new users. I doubt any other November will be able to replicate these numbers if they are that high, but obviously it's too soon to say that for certain.
 
J

jayu26

Member
Bluenoser said:
You grabbed every prediction from the whole thread and averaged them? Wow, I'm assuming you must have had a tool of some sort to do that automatically for you? If not, and you did it manually, my hat's off to you for the effort.
Click to expand...
You should read the OP (may be even some threads linked in the OP). That will answer your question.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
I know Microsoft is a master of spin but I think people are overthinking the Black Friday PR.

Make a comparison about two Black Friday Weeks not including Black Friday itself for one of them is too much, even for Microsoft.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
Sterok said:
I know we all love MS PR, but do we like Sony or Nintendo PR better? If I recall Sony's is consistently boring while Nintendo tends to cherry pick something they can brag about and say nothing when they've got nothing.

2.3 million combined for PS4/XB1 would definitely be high, but I wouldn't be too shocked if it's around there. Just this time. Call of Duty is severely gimped on last-gen consoles, and Fallout + Battlefront should be great system sellers. I do suspect this will be the only time they reach that high together though, as everything for price + software situation works out that they should be attractive for lots of new users. I doubt any other November will be able to replicate these numbers if they are that high, but obviously it's too soon to say that for certain.
Click to expand...

Sony PR is boring because all they have to do is post sell-through numbers and the results speak for themselves. No need for creative phrases or asterisks in their statements.

Nintendo...is Nintendo, lets leave it at that.
 
P

PhineasRed

Neo Member
Bluenoser said:
This sentence?

"Worldwide Xbox Black Friday sales in the Xbox Store broke records with an increase of 57 percent across Xbox One and Xbox 360, global Xbox Live Gold subscriptions were up over 40 percent, and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S."

You are mistaken sir.



Exactly my point. What good does it serve to spin that hard if the numbers will show otherwise? MS never stays quiet, that's their problem. :)
Click to expand...

Unless I am missing something they state it's the XBO console sales are up over 22% the week and in the same sentence it says it's the second biggest Black Friday in Xbox history. How is this being construed as comparing a Black Friday week to a non Black Friday week?
 
B

Bluenoser

Member
PhineasRed said:
Unless I am missing something they state it's the XBO console sales are up over 22% the week and in the same sentence it says it's the second biggest Black Friday in Xbox history. How is this being construed as comparing a Black Friday week to a non Black Friday week?
Click to expand...

There is no way to know for sure, that's why MS are PR masters.

But I was responding to your assertion that there was a hyperlink in the sentence itself taking you to a qualifying statement.... there isn't.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
PhineasRed said:
Unless I am missing something they state it's the XBO console sales are up over 22% the week and in the same sentence it says it's the second biggest Black Friday in Xbox history. How is this being construed as comparing a Black Friday week to a non Black Friday week?
Click to expand...

Because of the * on the bottom (nov 21 - 27). People are speculating that MS is comparing two periods between nov 21 - 27 and Black Friday was nov 28 in 2014.

For me doesn't make sense, they are comparing two periods starting saturday and ending on black friday, that in 2015 is nov 21- 27.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
allan-bh said:
Because of the * on the bottom (nov 21 - 27). People are speculating that MS is comparing two periods between nov 21 - 27 and Black Friday was nov 28 in 2014.

For me doesn't make sense, they are comparing two periods starting saturday and ending on black friday, that in 2015 is nov 21- 27.
Click to expand...

Yeah it still wouldn't make sense to compare Black Friday weeks and for one week to not include Black Friday. That is straight up lying.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Sterok said:
I know we all love MS PR, but do we like Sony or Nintendo PR better? If I recall Sony's is consistently boring while Nintendo tends to cherry pick something they can brag about and say nothing when they've got nothing.

2.3 million combined for PS4/XB1 would definitely be high, but I wouldn't be too shocked if it's around there. Just this time. Call of Duty is severely gimped on last-gen consoles, and Fallout + Battlefront should be great system sellers. I do suspect this will be the only time they reach that high together though, as everything for price + software situation works out that they should be attractive for lots of new users. I doubt any other November will be able to replicate these numbers if they are that high, but obviously it's too soon to say that for certain.
Click to expand...

Well if the current trend continues you can expect to pick up an X1 bundle for $199 next year during BF/CM. So that might help sales figures some, plus PS4/VR bundles might temp some enthusiasts. That said, I cannot wait for tonight's numbers.
 
L

LilZippa

Member
allan-bh said:
Because of the * on the bottom (nov 21 - 27). People are speculating that MS is comparing two periods between nov 21 - 27 and Black Friday was nov 28 in 2014.

For me doesn't make sense, they are comparing two periods starting saturday and ending on black friday, that in 2015 is nov 21- 27.
Click to expand...

This would also throw out 2002,2003,2008,2013 as top black fridays to beat. Not sure if that would correlate with other high sales.
 
B

Bluenoser

Member
Welfare said:
Yeah it still wouldn't make sense to compare Black Friday weeks and for one week to not include Black Friday. That is straight up lying.
Click to expand...

At the same time, 22% growth over last year's numbers doesn't seem realistic, as we all know they destroyed BF last year.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
What's ridiculous is that recent months of PR statements has made this debate even possible. It's absurd to think that the comparison would exclude Black Friday in one of the comparison points, yet here we are wondering if it really does or not.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Bluenoser said:
At the same time, 22% growth over last year's numbers doesn't seem realistic, as we all know they destroyed BF last year.
Click to expand...

The UK numbers are: 22% growth for Xbone and 28% growth for PS4. With the exception of a few sports games, the US and UK markets follow each other closely.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Bluenoser said:
At the same time, 22% growth over last year's numbers doesn't seem realistic, as we all know they destroyed BF last year.
Click to expand...

Them destroying Sony and them destroying Black Friday week are two different things. I don't even remember MS giving out any note worthy PR for BF last year.
 
P

PhineasRed

Neo Member
Bluenoser said:
There is no way to know for sure, that's why MS are PR masters.

But I was responding to your assertion that there was a hyperlink in the sentence itself taking you to a qualifying statement.... there isn't.
Click to expand...

Ah, I was looking at the Major Nelson post, which has the hyperlink to that quote we were just discussing. I guess I can see there are more than one way to look at this, but it just seems like too much of a stretch for me to buy into, but reasonable people can disagree!

I appreciate the civil responses, rather than being told "I drank the kool-aid" or that I'm a Microsoft apologist . Seriously we need more reasonableness in the face of varying viewpoints or opinions.
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Sterok said:
I know we all love MS PR, but do we like Sony or Nintendo PR better? If I recall Sony's is consistently boring while Nintendo tends to cherry pick something they can brag about and say nothing when they've got nothing.

2.3 million combined for PS4/XB1 would definitely be high, but I wouldn't be too shocked if it's around there. Just this time. Call of Duty is severely gimped on last-gen consoles, and Fallout + Battlefront should be great system sellers. I do suspect this will be the only time they reach that high together though, as everything for price + software situation works out that they should be attractive for lots of new users. I doubt any other November will be able to replicate these numbers if they are that high, but obviously it's too soon to say that for certain.
Click to expand...

Nintendo gives LTD updates for old games at times when they cross a milestone right?

like when 3D world or whatever crosses 1 million in the US. junk like that.
 
P

PhineasRed

Neo Member
allan-bh said:
Because of the * on the bottom (nov 21 - 27). People are speculating that MS is comparing two periods between nov 21 - 27 and Black Friday was nov 28 in 2014.

For me doesn't make sense, they are comparing two periods starting saturday and ending on black friday, that in 2015 is nov 21- 27.
Click to expand...

Thanks. To me It's seems pretty clear to be that they are comparing the two Black Friday weeks and they clarified what constituted the Black Friday week this year with the footnote.
 
R

Ricky_R

Member
CosmicQueso said:
What's ridiculous is that recent months of PR statements has made this debate even possible. It's absurd to think that the comparison would exclude Black Friday in one of the comparison points, yet here we are wondering if it really does or not.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I guess that, after the recent Halo PR...

v182bcjqfjzd7qxvkvrs.gif
 
I

Intrigue

Banned
PhineasRed said:
Thanks. To me It's seems pretty clear to be that they are comparing the two Black Friday weeks and they clarified what constituted the Black Friday week this year with the footnote.
Click to expand...

In same way, they made it clear that they did not include BF in one of the years by specifying dates. If they wanted to keep it clear they could have made it so, by saying week of thanksgiving/bf or something similar.
 
panda-zebra

panda-zebra

Member
PhineasRed said:
Thanks. To me It's seems pretty clear to be that they are comparing the two Black Friday weeks and they clarified what constituted the Black Friday week this year with the footnote.
Click to expand...

It would have been far easier to simply state "week ending Black Friday" without need for * and a date range within a month without a year. If there was no precedent for obfustication, there wouldn't be this level of scrutiny. If it is intentionally misleading, the reason it seems pretty clear to you is that it was intended to read that way to people who only want to read good, positive news. If not, the PR gurus need to take a step back and let good news speak for itself without sticking their thumbs in there.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Bluenoser said:
They sold a lot for the month though, or is 1200k+ not good? You can assume a lot of that was during BF week.
Click to expand...

Last year had a price drop in the beginning of the month, so sales was strong in all weeks.

My prediction is that Xbox One is down YoY, even selling more on BF.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
PhineasRed said:
Ah, I was looking at the Major Nelson post, which has the hyperlink to that quote we were just discussing. I guess I can see there are more than one way to look at this, but it just seems like too much of a stretch for me to buy into, but reasonable people can disagree!

I appreciate the civil responses, rather than being told "I drank the kool-aid" or that I'm a Microsoft apologist . Seriously we need more reasonableness in the face of varying viewpoints or opinions.
Click to expand...

Uhh I'm the only one who said anything about "drinking the koolaid" and it was in reference to MS buying into their own spin. In no way was I dismissing the possibility of another reading or dismissing the people arguing that point. It is important to actually exhibit some level of comprehension when attempting passive aggressive smarmy responses like insinuating people are calling you a Microsoft apologist or having a lack of "reasonableness." Nice try though.
 
S

...Scatter...

Banned
Begaria said:
Playstation Store top Sellers to keep us occupied while we wait for NPD
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015/12/10/playstation-store-novembers-top-sellers-2/

Not surprised by the top three. Not even surprised The Order: 1886 made it to #5 with that $10 deal.

Edit: Old Hunters was #2 for Add-Ons - Nice!
Click to expand...


God. All shooters. What a dudebro console.
kidding 😜

COD doesn't deserve the sales in my opinion. I think the celebration/love for Treyarch's return was unfounded and the game sort of got a pass for being a buggy mess the first few weeks.
 
M

Maniel

Banned
dolemite said:
The UK numbers are: 22% growth for Xbone and 28% growth for PS4. With the exception of a few sports games, the US and UK markets follow each other closely.
Click to expand...

Yea I'm thinking that Microsoft isn't misleading us with time periods. The numbers just wouldn't add up
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) Hardware Sales for 2022 - NSW 5830k | PS5 5660k | XBS 4480k
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
230
16K
Woopah replied
Circana (NPD) November 2023: #1 COD MWIII #2 Spider-Man 2 #3 Hogwarts Legacy; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 7 8 9 10 11
532
44K
Mibu no ookami replied
Circana December 2023: #1 COD MWIII #2 Mario Wonder #3 Madden; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, Switch #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 2 3
101
11K
MrA replied
UK Monthly Charts December 2023: PS5 #1, Switch #2 and Xbox Series #3
2 3 4
160
14K
sachos replied
Famitsu Sales: Week 52+53 (Dec 18 - Dec 31)
Sales-Age 2
52
4K
MrA replied
Top Bottom