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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

callahan09

Neo Member
So the MS PR release from last week, is that talking about sales from the period Nov 21 thru 27th being up 22% from last year, or is it talking about the week that contains Black Friday (black friday being November 28th last year)? It's kind of ambiguous... Not sure what to make of it, or if it's even worth trying. I've read the discussion here on the matter but don't really find myself enlightened on what it really means haha.

Just our of curiosity, what do you all utilize or look at it to determine your guesses for each month? Everybody seems to think the PS4 outsold the XB1 (based on posted predictions here), but what do you look at to come to these guesses?
 

truth411

Member
So the MS PR release from last week, is that talking about sales from the period Nov 21 thru 27th being up 22% from last year, or is it talking about the week that contains Black Friday (black friday being November 28th last year)? It's kind of ambiguous... Not sure what to make of it, or if it's even worth trying. I've read the discussion here on the matter but don't really find myself enlightened on what it really means haha.

Just our of curiosity, what do you all utilize or look at it to determine your guesses for each month? Everybody seems to think the PS4 outsold the XB1 (based on posted predictions here), but what do you look at to come to these guesses?
I'm betting it's including blackfriday from last year, but it is down on sales from last year's black Friday. They use the whole week to mask it and thus up 22% from last year for the week.
 
I know we all love MS PR, but do we like Sony or Nintendo PR better? If I recall Sony's is consistently boring while Nintendo tends to cherry pick something they can brag about and say nothing when they've got nothing.

2.3 million combined for PS4/XB1 would definitely be high, but I wouldn't be too shocked if it's around there. Just this time. Call of Duty is severely gimped on last-gen consoles, and Fallout + Battlefront should be great system sellers. I do suspect this will be the only time they reach that high together though, as everything for price + software situation works out that they should be attractive for lots of new users. I doubt any other November will be able to replicate these numbers if they are that high, but obviously it's too soon to say that for certain.


Sony still shares sales numbers, that is nice. When was the last time Microsoft officially released any type of sales numbers? Or even shipped numbers?
 

Ty4on

Member
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2015

1. PS4 - 1257K
2. XB1 - 1108K
3. 3DS - 425K
4. WIU - 334K

Wow, makes me wish I had made predictions. I'd eat my hat if they're that high.

I have no idea what the BF sales were, but I find it kinda strange that XB1 is second again. Its sales are up and Xboxes tend to get a bigger holiday boost.
 
People typically use liquid-cooling for actively circulated systems. Heat pipes are better referred to as vapor chambers or phase change cooling since the evaporative and capillary action are what create the fluid flow.
I don't see how the lack of a pump means the liquid isn't doing the cooling. MS agree. :p


Yeah it still wouldn't make sense to compare Black Friday weeks and for one week to not include Black Friday. That is straight up lying.
It's not lying if they explicitly say the sales period they're examining runs from Nov. 21st through Nov. 27th, which they do. ;)


You take this way too serious cousin.
Sorry, but Queso is spot on here. It is gross, and I would add that you should stop supporting it. Forced parity is even more disgusting, so please stop supporting that too. kthxbai


So the MS PR release from last week, is that talking about sales from the period Nov 21 thru 27th being up 22% from last year, or is it talking about the week that contains Black Friday (black friday being November 28th last year)? It's kind of ambiguous... Not sure what to make of it, or if it's even worth trying. I've read the discussion here on the matter but don't really find myself enlightened on what it really means haha.
That's what it says, yes, but there are some who seem unwilling to accept this, and feel there are also implied statements in the PR which make it clear that's not what they did.

Honestly, I don't understand why journalists don't follow up on this stuff. I can see why they ran with the story as-is, because it took us a week of going 'round and 'round before we finally figured out what it said, and if it hadn't been for the second PR that referenced the original PR, it's likely we never would've realized what happened.

But now that we do know, why don't journalists follow up on it? We have some that post here. If IGN, GameSpot, and Kotaku all start asking MS what days they were looking at in 2014, they'd have to give some kind of response, even if it's just evasion.
 
I have no idea what the BF sales were, but I find it kinda strange that XB1 is second again. Its sales are up and Xboxes tend to get a bigger holiday boost.
When it was the 360 or was ridiculously much cheaper than it's competition. Don't read too much into it.
Just our of curiosity, what do you all utilize or look at it to determine your guesses for each month? Everybody seems to think the PS4 outsold the XB1 (based on posted predictions here), but what do you look at to come to these guesses?
1) Copy and paste other's predictions (so you don't have to worry about format either)
2) tweak numbers a bit so they become yours
3) follow the thread and change them a million times whenever someone says something that sounds at least slightly logical.
 

Stanng243

Member
I think you're seriously underestimating digital sales. I don't have single friend who still buys retail games. Also, I think you already know Microsoft didn't release the number of sold copies.

Yet again, $400 against $300, don't see why you need any more persuading.

Some people love MS's PR. I think they went to the school of Leeh.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
It's very possible they meant the BF week from Sat to Friday (or Monday to Friday) in both year, and just slipped.
What on earth could be the reason for setting the period like that? I mean, Sunday through Saturday I understand, that is the American week. Or Monday through Sunday like we do it everywhere else (and which would include the whole weekend, which apparently was super good for sales).

But ending on Friday, when the Black Friday weekend also comprises Saturday and Sunday. It doesn't make sense, unless you have an agenda.

I know Microsoft is a master of spin but I think people are overthinking the Black Friday PR.

Make a comparison about two Black Friday Weeks not including Black Friday itself for one of them is too much, even for Microsoft.
I don't think it is too much for them, not at all.

I think the dates were very carefully selected. And they must have compared the results. 22nd through 28th would have included the Saturday this year and Friday last year, and it may be that the increase would been less than 22%. So going for that exact period was very deliberate.
 
Wow, makes me wish I had made predictions. I'd eat my hat if they're that high.

I have no idea what the BF sales were, but I find it kinda strange that XB1 is second again. Its sales are up and Xboxes tend to get a bigger holiday boost.
Keep in mind, the X1 sold a super high amount of units last November. Being down this November would just speak to how crazy good last year was.
 
Aggregate predictions are quite optimistic.
That's what I would expect from a group of enthusiasts. Personally, I'd be surprised if PS4 and Bone combine for more than 2.2M, and even that would be a lot, I think. 2.0-2.1M seems more reasonable.


1) Copy and paste other's predictions (so you don't have to worry about format either)
2) tweak numbers a bit so they become yours
3) follow the thread and change them a million times whenever someone says something that sounds at least slightly logical.
lol
 

PhineasRed

Neo Member
Uhh I'm the only one who said anything about "drinking the koolaid" and it was in reference to MS buying into their own spin. In no way was I dismissing the possibility of another reading or dismissing the people arguing that point. It is important to actually exhibit some level of comprehension when attempting passive aggressive smarmy responses like insinuating people are calling you a Microsoft apologist or having a lack of "reasonableness." Nice try though.

Thats my bad, you are right. I over reacted and was scrolling on my phone a little too fast after reading that first paragraph of the comment. I probably was a little too sensitive about it as I wasn't directly being accused of anything, I think I was just feeling a sense of hostility towards those who took the PR at face value. Upon rereading the last few pages I realize I was off base. So that's on me. I apologize for the implication, I misread it and you are complete right to call me out on it. I unintentionally became part of the problem I was just complaining about.
 

labaronx

Member
I dont know if they have shared any real sales numbers or shipped numbers since the "Almost 10 million shipped" quote from last November. I may be wrong, but I cannot remember it. I am sure someone will correct me.

Wondering if MS will even announces when the console hits 20 million sold
 
Wondering if MS will even announces when the console hits 20 million sold

all-your-base.png

All your number belong to MAU.
 

LilZippa

Member
Could this November 27th thing be a shipped units number? That would make sense due to the need for it to be in the stores for black Friday.
 

blakep267

Member
I don't think they will ever announce any numbers, simply because of the major beatdown by PS4.

Bragging about reaching 20m when competitor is at 50m is not smart.
I don't think they'd "brag" but last year Nadella casually mentioned over 10 million shipped or something like Taft. I could see that happening again. Him just saying it off hand. I don't think they'd say sales otherwise
 

singhr1

Member
I don't think they will ever announce any numbers, simply because of the major beatdown by PS4.

Bragging about reaching 20m when competitor is at 50m is not smart.

Who says its bragging. It's acknowledging a major milestone. MS knows its way behind, they'll take their small victories where they can.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Who says its bragging. It's acknowledging a major milestone. MS knows its way behind, they'll take their small victories where they can.

Not in regards to sales numbers, since they said they would henceforth only be relying on Xbox Live monthly active user statistics from here on out..
 
not excited about tonight's result unless they actually say who was #1. not into MAU or a no show. if anything microsoft will be all coy and drop in their PR the the xbox deals that's still active.
 

jjonez18

Member
Proud to say my numbers are lower than the aggregate. You guys really messed up last month :)

Just our of curiosity, what do you all utilize or look at it to determine your guesses for each month? Everybody seems to think the PS4 outsold the XB1 (based on posted predictions here), but what do you look at to come to these guesses?

Previous NPD numbers. New games released. Marketing rights. Prices/deals. Anecdotal evidence and PR parsing from this thread.

My line of thinking: For this month PS4 had Call of Duty and Star Wars Battlefront marketing, both with software bundles to keep the first 3 weeks of November strong. Then Black Friday weekend with the 299$ NDC.

Now Xbox One should see similar gains from CoD and Star Wars but without marketing and bundling it would be less than PS4. Black Friday weekend is a toss up. But I'm thinking they would have to win by a decent chunk to make up for the other 3/4 weeks. Something I don't see happening with both of them offering similar headliners. (Remaster + console for 299$)
 

DieH@rd

Banned
They sell consoles when the sun comes up,
With NPD reports on the line
For a MAU, gotta follow the laws of the wild!

Rules of nature!!!
 
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