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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

You want to know
Who turned me on
Who made me hot
For last month gone

A sexy tale
Is what you'll get
My MAUth will scream
New record set

-XB1
 

tumblr_lb1csme55W1qdnwiro1_400.gif
 
Sorry I missed the origin of the MAU meme. Fill me in?

Since Microsoft have moved from units sold to monthly active users as their metric for success, it's become a meme where MAU is divine currency, a religious organization that is far superior to previous metrics. Or, trying to work in MAU into any word or phrase.

In MAU we trust.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Sorry I missed the origin of the MAU meme. Fill me in?

MS decided to stop reporting any sales numbers of Xbone. Instead of that they are focusing on Active Monthly Users, number that shows how many users are connecting to XBLive on any supported device [Xbone, X360, Windows, Windows Phone].
 

Shabad

Member
MS decided to stop reporting any sales numbers of Xbone. Instead of that they are focusing on Active Monthly Users, number that shows how many users are connecting to XBLive on any supported device [Xbone, X360, Windows, Windows Phone].

Is this some kind of joke ? They literally said they won't report sales number in the future ?
 

Bluenoser

Member
Ah ok thanks, I knew they weren't going to be sharing their sales numbers anymore, but the acronym got me stumped.

Praise the MAU I guess.
 

allan-bh

Member
I don't think GAF aggregate is optimistic. People are reading the signs:

-XBO with better BF than last year (and second best for Xbox history)
-PS4 selling close to Xbox One in BF and doing better early in the month with CoD and Battlefront bundles
-Wii U having a decent BF with Splaton/Smash bundle for $249

We may be wrong but I see as a realistic average.
 
Apparently they've also increased the advertising? People are mentioning lots of commercials (I don't watch TV, so I don't really know, but apparently it's all over the place).

Sony is destroying MS in advertising this holiday season.

I never thought I'd live long enough to even think of uttering those words, but here we are, witnessing it plain as day. It's literally insane.

I don't think GAF aggregate is optimistic. People are reading the signs:

-XBO with better BF than last year (and second best for Xbox history)
-PS4 selling close to Xbox One in BF and doing better early in the month with CoD and SW bundles
-Wii U having a decent BF with Splaton/Smash bundle for $249

We may be wrong but I see as a realistic average.
But didn't that Infoscout report say PS4 won BF this year? Yeah, a statistical tie but numbers are still numbers :/

EDIT: I guess technically the way you worded it that still holds true, but that wording could also be interpreted as implying XBO sold more since that's the one being measured against, and I just remember the Infoscout reports giving a very slight nudge to PS4 for BF.
 

allan-bh

Member
Sony is destroying MS in advertising this holiday season.

I never thought I'd live long enough to even think of uttering those words, but here we are, witnessing it plain as day. It's literally insane.

But didn't that Infoscout report say PS4 won BF this year? Yeah, a statistical tie but numbers are still numbers :/

EDIT: I guess technically the way you worded it that still holds true, but that wording could also be interpreted as implying XBO sold more since that's the one being measured against, and I just remember the Infoscout reports giving a very slight nudge to PS4 for BF.

Little better is close like you already saw.

Adobe said that Xbox One own, but just for online sales.
 
I don't think GAF aggregate is optimistic. People are reading the signs:

-XBO with better BF than last year (and second best for Xbox history)
-PS4 selling close to Xbox One in BF and doing better early in the month with CoD and Battlefront bundles
-Wii U having a decent BF with Splaton/Smash bundle for $249

We may be wrong but I see as a realistic average.

Hope you're right but +10% overall and +50% on PS4 would be remarkable numbers.
 
Can't wait for all the MAUnday Morning Quarterbacks who will try to defend the MAUs getting shared in PR, and how great of a decision it was to use them as the primary metric cause console sales now mean nothing...
 

Shabad

Member

I don't get it. We still have NPD, and other agencies like that, to give us fairly accurate estimates. So the numbers will be leaked, and published on every game news outlet anyway...

What do Microsoft gets from not publishing numbers... besides being mocked apparently ? Aren't markets expecting sales numbers anyway, how can Microsoft get away hiding their numbers like that ?

I understand I am little late to the party though, sorry if that's too off topic.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
I don't get it. We still have NPD, and other agencies like that, to give us fairly accurate estimates. So the numbers will be leaked, and published on every game news outlet anyway...

What do Microsoft gets from not publishing numbers... besides being mocked apparently ? Aren't markets expecting sales numbers anyway, how can Microsoft get away hiding their numbers like that ?

I understand I am little late to the party though, sorry if that's too off topic.

US NPD =/= the world

End estimates... are just estimates. They are not facts [that's why chartz is banned here].
 
Little better is close like you already saw.

Adobe said that Xbox One own, but just for online sales.
Oh yeah, there was a follow-up. Odd it was Adobe, but it was a thing. One of those or some other report broke it down by store as well. That was pretty useful.

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2015

1. PS4 - 1257K
2. XB1 - 1108K
3. 3DS - 425K
4. WIU - 334K

Hmm...seems pretty good. I'd personally put PS4 maybe 30-35k higher and XBO closer to 980k or something; still thinking the better value it had for other months this years put a dent in any pent-up BF sales compared to last year, where it literally had at least one sub-100k month and other months dangerously close to that. MOM it's done a lot better this year, but that also probably means less for Nov and Dec.

And so that I'm not the odd one out, happy b-day Ryng!
 
"Xbox One has the highest Bases of Installments™ with Real gaming consoles, though the Wii U, a Japanese bootleg Mattel Intellivison rip-off gained more supporters in the fooled unsuspecting public."

-The Nelson Major of Xbox Army.
 
I don't get it. We still have NPD, and other agencies like that, to give us fairly accurate estimates. So the numbers will be leaked, and published on every game news outlet anyway...

What do Microsoft gets from not publishing numbers... besides being mocked apparently ? Aren't markets expecting sales numbers anyway, how can Microsoft get away hiding their numbers like that ?

I understand I am little late to the party though, sorry if that's too off topic.

Being completely fair, they come across as stating it's a more accurate number to present to their investors as they view the monthly active user and their incurring purchases as a more meaningful assessment across their entire ecosystem. A Windows 10 user will access Xbox Live to purchase PC related software, and may cross over to the home console. Vice versa.

With that said, it's pretty easy to be cynical with this change.

Edit: It's also not a leap to see that Microsoft proper has more comfort in the idea of service model than hardware.
 

DieH@rd

Banned

I'm just saying that you cannot gauge worldwide success of Xbone just by looking NPD numbers, or giving faith to many analyst reports [especially nonsense that Ars is posting these days].

For MS US is almost the world
This gen this indeed seems to be the case, but we cannot get the precise ratio of "US vs the world" if MS is not sharing WW sales numbers. Its probably around ~66% US, 33% world.

[for PS4 it's 33:66]
 
Being completely fair, they come across as stating it's a more accurate number to present to their investors as they view the monthly active user and their incurring purchases as a more meaningful assessment across their entire ecosystem. A Windows 10 user will access Xbox Live to purchase PC related software, and may cross over to the home console. Vice versa.

With that said, it's pretty easy to be cynical with this change.

The most level headed and reasonable summary of this thing yet. Well done.

I'm just saying that you cannot gauge worldwide success of Xbone just by looking NPD numbers, or giving faith to many analyst reports [especially nonsense that Ars is posting these days].

You also certainly can not gauge worldwide success with MAUs.
 
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