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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

S

Shabad

Member
DieH@rd said:
US NPD =/= the world

End estimates... are just estimates. They are not facts [that's why chartz is banned here].
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There is also GfK in Europe, Famitsu and others in Japan, and probably plenty others. Those things gets published anyway. Ok they are just estimates, but why Microsoft consider it better for us to have -well documented and fairly accurate- estimates rather than their own numbers ?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
allan-bh said:
I don't think 10% is a lot.

50% for PS4 is but we must look at the context. Last year sales were disappointing, Sony don't dropped the price and Xbox dominated.
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Ehhh I guess it isn't that far fetched. OCT was +14%, Jun +13%. But SEP was -19%. Who the hell knows.

Shabad said:
There is also GfK in Europe, Famitsu and others in Japan, and probably plenty others. Those things gets published anyway. Ok they are just estimates, but why Microsoft consider it better for us to have -well documented and fairly accurate- estimates rather than their own numbers ?
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MAUs could just be how MS is aligning its internal goals and trying to stay consistent in its approach both internally and externally. They might be fine with HW sales numbers being out there, they're apparently more comfortable talking and tracking users these days.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
The only way I see a 400k increase over last year for PS4 is if the delayed sales from October theory is true.

We'll see though, I remain unconvinced.
 
T

Tubie

Member
I don't think either will sell much more than 1m.

They will probably be around 900k-1m. The GAF average is just crazy optimistic lol.
 
T

Tivor Tontomo

Member
Tubie said:
I don't think either will sell much more than 1m.

They will probably be around 900k-1m. The GAF average is just crazy optimistic lol.
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Uh what? Last year was almost 2 million, this years theres more games and features and updates to bring in more customers. Heck the year before last was also almost 2 million combined Xbox One and PlayStation 4.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
allan-bh said:
I don't think 10% is a lot.

50% for PS4 is but we must look at the context. Last year sales were disappointing, Sony don't dropped the price and Xbox dominated.
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I agree but we are talking about a historic month for PS+Xbox sales. Top 3 all time. Thankfully, we will find out soon enough.
 
Plague Doctor

Plague Doctor

Member
CosmicQueso said:
The most level headed and reasonable summary of this thing yet. Well done.
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Thanks Cosmic! I have to temper the rational with the madness we will all be engaging in shortly. It's a solidish plan, it's just when they decided to switch to it was quick and not at the best time. It could very well turn out to be a winning strategy for them internally and dealing with their own investors.
 
S

Seldomly Jambon

Member
Primethius said:
The only way I see a 400k increase over last year for PS4 is if the delayed sales from October theory is true.

We'll see though, I remain unconvinced.
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Think it's reasonably likely for folk to hold off a month with the likelyhood of much better deals on the horizon. For both PS4 and X1. If you don't need to play things day 1 it's worth a tiny wait to get what you're biting the cherry for essentially for free given the cost difference.

Edited: for r3tarted phone shenanigans
 
L

labaronx

Member
Primethius said:
The only way I see a 400k increase over last year for PS4 is if the delayed sales from October theory is true.

We'll see though, I remain unconvinced.
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Not impossible when u really think about it, the vader ps4 jumped tremendously when it went from 450 to 400... blops3 ps4 saw a noticeable jump too when its price got cut by 20.... the question will be how many vader ps4s did sony release
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Kill3r7 said:
I agree but we are talking about a historic month for PS+Xbox sales. Top 3 all time. Thankfully, we will find out soon enough.
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Predictions can be a little optimistic and real numbers be something like 100k lower for each.
I will be surprised if was even lower than that.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Seldomly Jambon said:
Think it's reasonably likely for folk to hold off a month with the likelyhood of much better deals on the horizon. For both PS4 and X1. If you don't need to play things day 1 it's worth a tiny wait to get what you're biting the cherry for essentially for free given the cost difference.

Edited: for r3tarted phone shenanigans
Click to expand...

Sure, I agree in theory. I still doubt the numbers impact a bit.

400k is a pretty massive increase. We'll see soon enough I suppose. Even my own predictions were a bit on the optimistic side.
 
T

TheOfficeMut

Unconfirmed Member
My prediction is:

PS4: 1024k
Xbox One: 975k
Wii U: 457k

I know this isn't the format but since that period is already over, who cares.
 
K

Kyougar

Member
slavesnyder said:
Spencer:
"I fully expect that you’ll see another console from us. Our best customers are Xbox console customers, and I want to keep those people engaged both on the Xbox One and anything we might do in the future. I’m 100 percent committed to that."
http://www.gamesradar.com/another-xbox-phil-spencer/
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he expects it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

reads like he has no definitiv answer from his Boss and a successor is not greenlit.

Really, he said "I" expect. Not "you" should expect. Either strange wording or there is no decision made yet, or the decision is made and was negative and this is another spin. (When spencer is asked in 3 or 4 years why there is no new Xbox he will say: "Well I said I just expected there to be another console, but my expectation wasnt met.")

He is the friggin' Xbox Boss he should KNOW if there is another XBOX after the current one!
 
freefornow

freefornow

Gold Member
donny2112 said:
Please use the correct format in the future. That said, I read that you had it completely the wrong format originally and then tried to modify it to use the right one. I do try to take that kind of effort into account, so I corrected it for you this month. Just use the OP format going forward, please. Thanks!
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Thank you for correcting this month. Very much appreciated.
 
Futurematic

Futurematic

Member
Ombala said:
What's a Tomb Raider?
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A master class in Hollywood accounting.

Although the official budget for this 2001 production was $94 million and reported even higher in the press, the studio’s outlay was only $8.7 million. How?

First, Paramount got $65 million from Intermedia Films in Germany in exchange for distribution rights to Lara Croft: Tomb Raider for six countries: Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan. These “pre-sales” left Paramount with the rights to market its film to the rest of the world.

Second, it arranged to have part of the film shot in Britain so that it would qualify for Section 48 tax relief. This allowed it to make a sale-lease-back transaction with the British Lombard Bank through which (on paper only) Lara Croft: Tomb Raider was sold to British investors, who collected a multimillion subsidy from the British government, and then sold it back to Paramount via a lease and option for less than Paramount paid (in effect, giving it a share of the tax-relief subsidy). Through this financial alchemy in Britain, Paramount netted, up front, a cool $12 million. Third, Paramount sold the copyright through Herbert Kloiber’s Tele Munchen Gruppe, to a German tax shelter. Because German law did not require the movie to be shot in Germany, and the copyright transfer was only a temporary artifice, the money paid to Paramount in this complex transaction was truly, as the executive put it, “money-for-nothing.” Through this maneuver, Paramount made another $10.2 million in Germany, which paid the salaries of star Angelina Jolie ($7.5 million) and the rest of the principal cast.

Before the cameras even started rolling, then, Paramount had earned, risk-free, $87 million. For arranging this financial legerdemain Paramount paid about $1.7 million in commissions and fees to middlemen, but that left it with over $85.3 million in the bank. So, its total out-of-pocket cost for the $94-million movie was only $8.7 million.

Since Paramount could be assured of selling the pay-TV rights to its sister company, Showtime, with which it had an output deal, for $8.5 million, it had little, if any, risk. As it turned out, the movie brought into Paramount’s coffers over $100 million from theaters, DVDs, television, and other rights.
Click to expand...
 
S

samar11

Member
Kyougar said:
he expects it. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

reads like he has no definitiv answer from his Boss and a successor is not greenlit.

Really, he said "I" expect. Not "you" should expect. Either strange wording or there is no decision made yet, or the decision is made and was negative and this is another spin. (When spencer is asked in 3 or 4 years why there is no new Xbox he will say: "Well I said I just expected there to be another console, but my expectation wasnt met.")



He is the friggin' Xbox Boss he should KNOW if there is another XBOX after the current one!
Click to expand...


Well wouldn't r&d already began if they are making another one ?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Kyougar said:
he expects it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

reads like he has no definitiv answer from his Boss and a successor is not greenlit.

Really, he said "I" expect. Not "you" should expect. Either strange wording or there is no decision made yet, or the decision is made and was negative and this is another spin. (When spencer is asked in 3 or 4 years why there is no new Xbox he will say: "Well I said I just expected there to be another console, but my expectation wasnt met.")

He is the friggin' Xbox Boss he should KNOW if there is another XBOX after the current one!
Click to expand...
self-mautivation
 
U

unapersson

Member
Demacabre said:
Thanks Cosmic! I have to temper the rational with the madness we will all be engaging in shortly. It's a solidish plan, it's just when they decided to switch to it was quick and not at the best time. It could very well turn out to be a winning strategy for them internally and dealing with their own investors.
Click to expand...

They decided they'd tackle the issue of consoles gathering dust head on, by removing them from the equation completely. I do think it's a bit braver than it looks as MAU can go down as well as up.
 
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