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[CrunchyB]

NPD threads are entertaining to read.

At the end of the day, people that buy the PS3 in order to be entertained have nothing to be worried about for the life of the console.

On the basis of "Playstation" franchises (and supporting studios) alone, the PS3 can only bring bigger and better installments of games that made the PS1 and PS2 golden gaming machines. Too many great franchises to list, but you get the point. It is safe to say that people that enjoyed these past machines know what to expect from the PS3, and are not dumb/immature enough to be upset that some 3rd party games will no longer be "exclusive".

You weren't around during the N64/PSX days, were you? Or perhaps you were too young. In any case, we've been down this road before.
At least the N64 had Mario64 and an aggressive price going for it. What does the Ps3 have, exactly?

 

[plagiarize]

I'm glad you are so sure of your logic. Let's see what happens if the costs of developing a game are 6 million for Wii and 12 million for 360 and it costs 1 extra million to codevelop on two platforms (you would have to spend as much as on 360 version + put new controls, reoptimize the engine, graphics, etc). The publisher makes 30 dollars on each Wii and 40 dollars on each 360 game. Finally, if Wii game is Wii exclusive, it sells 250 thou but if it's not, it sells 200 - which is pretty realistic. Same deal with 360 game - exclusive means 300, not exclusive means 200 - considering 360 owners more likely to have two consoles and my be tempted by the lower price of the Wii game, different controls, free online. Actually, let me be generous and assume extra 10,000 for the game when it's 360 exclusive.

So the publisher has three options.

Profits developing for Wii exclusively: 250,000*30 - 6mil=1.5 million
Profits developing for 360 exclusively: 310,000*40-12mil=0.4 million
Profits developing for both: 200,000*30+200*40 - 13mil= 1 million.

Question from econ 101: which course would a profit maximizing publisher choose.

Of course I rigged the numbers in this example - if the cost is under 5.5mil for Wii and 11mil for 360, codeveloping is actually optimal.

But this is just to make a point that yes, it is possible that it's profitable to develop for 360, but it's not the smart thing to do.

you are missing a key point. a very key point.

software publishers are in competition with each other.

lets say we have three software publishers each capable of making 3 games a month, and each follow your logic.

so we have 9 wii games in a month, no ps3 and no xbox 360 games.

the 9 games fight over the wii's userbase.

the *smart* publisher would realise that hey, there's no games out on the xbox 360 this month, so if we put an xbox 360 game out, it sells well beyond what it would have on the wii because that market will be hungrier for a title and there is less competition.

where there is demand for a product, there will be games.

it's why hollywood doesn't just make low budget horror movies like that blair witch project. making a bunch of low budget horror movies instead of one hollywood blockbuster, mathematically speaking, gives you much better returns... but it wouldn't if there were *just* low budget horror movies.

 

[ZeoVGM]

All you have to do is ask

Platform LTD Numbers
PlayStation 2 37.7M
Game Boy Advance 35.4M
Xbox 14.5M
GameCube 11.7M
Nintendo DS 9.87M
PlayStation Portable 7.03M
Xbox 360 5.05M
Wii 1.85M
PlayStation 3 1.06M

You rock.

 

[Ben Sones]

even with big triple a games, the xbox360 cannot outsell the Guitar Hero 2.

Fixed.

 

[FrankT]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psOjnMcPGRU&mode=related&search= :lol

Yea, the response to the PS3 song is just like a, terrible.

 

[Branduil]

yes, but they are the same third party stuff that always did well on nintendo consoles. the real shift in direction will be when we start seeing activision, take two, EA selling well on the wii. which is not happening right now

I believe Madden was selling just fine. Take Two should probably actually release a Wii game, it's hard to generate sales with non-existent games.

Spoiler

In before someone makes a "non-games" crack.

 

[WasteLand Soldier]

HOW THE F DOES THE PREVIOUS "MARKET LEADER" MANAGE TO DROP DOWN TO 127K NOT EVEN 3 MONTHS AFTER LAUNCH? WTF? does anyone have any historic launch data? Dreamcast? Saturn? xbox? ps2? i'd like to see come comparisons. that price and lack of compelling software is KILLING sony. and all those wondering about blu ray, considering ps3 is indeed the cheapest BR player availible and ps3 is STILL pulling these numbers that goes to show DVD is still KING.

 

[Flo_Evans]

ouch. ouch.

oh well, I still enjoyed the dreamcast despite it being crushed by the competition. Its about FUN not sales #'s right? :lol

The 360 seems to be winning the PS2s harcore while the wii is stealing its casuals. What is left for sony? AV nerds?

 

[Oblivion]

Picking up from where you left off; I don't think the PS3 is going to bomb completely like the DC or even the GC. But it's definetly looking like the Xbox of this generation.

Xbox and GC weren't too far from each other, you know.

Unless you mean it'll be like Xbox, with a rather robust software library.

 

[ZombieSupaStar]

And this, sir, as I have demonstrated mathematically, is a fallacy.

For the record: I don't really care very much for 360 games and them coming to Wii (unless you count sports games) and you are too quick to assume what vision I support.

Yes but some of us who hate waggle with a freakish passion have to have something to play games on, something to carry on the way we played and enjoyed games for the last 20 or so years, so Id prefer to see good games on the 360 also (Note: if MS had some sorta waggle/sixaxis I would loathe them just as much)

 

[JCBossman]

Remove the EE chip as done in Europe and go with s/w based emulation, make the Blu-Ray drive tray loading, and remove the expensive internal power supply by replacing it with a brick. I mentioned these three ideas months ago. Sony started doing one of them.

Tray loading isn't going to save any money(hell I think slot loading is cheaper, at least it was on those OLD 5 disc magazines VS Regular 5 disc changers) same with the internal power supply, the cost was in designing it in the first place, not the components, I think the X360 monster brick costs more (per unit) than the internal PS3 one.

 

[PhoenixDark]

 

[Bulla564]

You weren't around during the N64/PSX days, were you? Or perhaps you were too young. In any case, we've been down this road before.
At least the N64 had Mario64 and an aggressive price going for it. What does the Ps3 have, exactly?

I hate to disappoint you my yoshi-loving friend. I was indeed around for the N64/PSx and old enough to understand what happened.

What does the PS3 have? it is coming in with future-proof features, strong 3rd party support, and not just "Mario64". If you need a refresher course on the myriad of Playstation franchises, look at the PS2 line-up.

 

[krypt0nian]

And this, sir, as I have demonstrated mathematically, is a fallacy.

For the record: I don't really care very much for 360 games and them coming to Wii (unless you count sports games) and you are too quick to assume what vision I support.

You have yet to prove anything. Your percentages are straight out of your dirt star.

 

[Wiitard]

you are missing a key point. a very key point.

software publishers are in competition with each other.

lets say we have three software publishers each capable of making 3 games a month, and each follow your logic.

so we have 9 wii games in a month, no ps3 and no xbox 360 games.

the 9 games fight over the wii's userbase.

the *smart* publisher would realise that hey, there's no games out on the xbox 360 this month, so if we put an xbox 360 game out, it sells well beyond what it would have on the wii because that market will be hungrier for a title and there is less competition.

where there is demand for a product, there will be games.

it's why hollywood doesn't just make low budget horror movies like that blair witch project. making a bunch of low budget horror movies instead of one hollywood blockbuster, mathematically speaking, gives you much better returns... but it wouldn't if there were *just* low budget horror movies.

This is a very, very valid point. However, the purpose of the example was NOT to show that all publishers will join hands and march down to Wii till the very last one. It was to illustrate that if making more money is better then just making money - if publishers think they can make more money on Wii, then codeveloping or having a 360 exclusive, that is what they would do.

In equilibrium, in this model, an average publisher should be indifferent between two of the three choises.

But you are absolutely right - I was making a partial equilibrium point and you mada a general equilibrium one.

Are you studying economics?

 

[plagiarize]

it's going to be interesting to see what happens to ps2 sales when guitar hero 2 hits the xbox 360 next month... but i digress.

just looked up some previous charts, and, outside of supply constraints february > march > april pretty much always. it didn't happen with the 360 because of the shortages, but it has been true every year of the PS2 other than it's first year out (where again it was supply constrained in feb.

how does the market leader go from dominance to third place so fast?

by forgetting that games sell systems, not the company that made the console.

edt: no i'm not an economics student... but i like to think i understand the basic concepts.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

ouch. ouch.

oh well, I still enjoyed the dreamcast despite it being crushed by the competition. Its about FUN not sales #'s right? :lol

The 360 seems to be winning the PS2s harcore while the wii is stealing its casuals. What is left for sony? AV nerds?

I wouldn't be surprised if a sizeable amount of PS3 sales are made up by AV nerds. I know I never would have purchased it had it not been the best performing and cheapest BD player on the market. I think that's a pretty convincing point for most as well.

 

[Oblivion]

I've mentioned this before, but with the Wii's crazy success, and Sony out of the console race, I wonder what this means for the future of MS' tech. Will they still go with exponential upgrades? They may follow in Nintendo's footsteps..

 

[Master Z]

So much overreation in this thread. Sony and the PS3 are not going to die folks. Just because the PS3 isn't in first doesn't mean that the Playstation business will not be successful.

 

[Oblivion]

I hate to disappoint you my yoshi-loving friend. I was indeed around for the N64/PSx and old enough to understand what happened.

What does the PS3 have? it is coming in with future-proof features, strong 3rd party support, and not just "Mario64". If you need a refresher course on the myriad of Playstation franchises, look at the PS2 line-up.

Did you sorta miss the point completely?

 

[eviltasan]

(Nintendo Press Release)

Wii Wins Again

According to independent sales data released by the NPD Group, the Wii(TM) from Nintendo was America’s best-selling video game console in the U.S. again in February, with consumers snapping up virtually every system available in America totaling more than 335,000 units.

Only one game system sold more in February, the portable Nintendo DS(TM), with sell-through of 485,000 units.

Together, Nintendo systems represented 54 percent of all hardware sales in February, more than those of all other manufacturers combined.

“We’re gratified that the explosive appeal of Wii, in terms of both new players and new ways to play, has created unprecedented demand, substantially beyond supply,” says Reggie Fils-Aime, president, Nintendo of America. “But we also understand that there are hundreds of thousands of consumers still waiting to get their hands on the system so we continue to both ship more units to retail every week and work non-stop to build capacity.”

Reports from households across the country indicate that Wii has become the centerpiece for weekend parties, a new method for improving athletic technique and losing weight, and a landmark product for generating cross-generational fun.

The strength of Wii and Nintendo DS was also apparent in monthly software sales where three of the top four best-selling games for the month (Wii Play(TM) and The Legend of Zelda(R): Twilight Princess for Wii, and Diddy Kong(R) Racing DS for Nintendo DS) play exclusively on Nintendo systems. In addition, so far this year 10 of the top 20 best-selling games are exclusive for Nintendo hardware.

 

[Chris_C]

PS3 numbers are really bad, wow. Please, please drop the price.

As a supporter of the console, I hope they get better. But hell, as long as I can play the exclusives I want to play on the PS3, I'll be happy. At worst, it'll be 3rd and have a GCN style library.

I feel the same way as AltogetherAndrews and Zaptruder, in that I don't think MS and Nintendo will take the market in a good direction if they lead. With a few exceptions, I don't like the games that are available on Wii and Xbox 360. I think that Sony has pushed the boundaries of what can be considered "video games" much more then either of their competitors, and it will be a shame if their ambition causes them to crash and burn.

Agreed, I really don't want to see the Wii take the lead this gen, and while not as bad, I just don't think MS are quite as adventurous and forward looking as Sony is.

 

[Wiitard]

You have yet to prove anything. Your percentages are straight out of your dirt star.

But of course they are. Although I hoped they very not completely insane and at least remotely plausible. All I was hoping to show is that: publishers make money on console A does not by itself closes the possibility of the switching to console B.

 

[fernoca]

Not surprised by the numbers, hehehe...
But I think that people in general are jumping to conclusions too fast.

For example, based on this numbers (in US)
-The PS3 is behind the Wii for around 800,000 units, which in some way is not bad considering that the "cheapest" PS3 costs TWICE the price of a Wii (even more interesting when you take into cosnideration that most people are buying the 60GB unit which costs $100 more).

-The PS3 is selling similar to the 360, during the same period.

Yeah..worldwide is another story, seeign how the PS3 hasn't been released across Europe and that in Japan it doesn't have an "RPG or a "non-game" that many like to call..hehehehe..

Oh well, next year...wil be more interesting.. After all, the original PS..started as slow as the PS3 and it wasn't till after a year that it started getting more sales.

 

[AZ Greg]

even with big triple a games, the xbox360 cannot outsell the ps2.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

You have yet to prove anything. Your percentages are straight out of your dirt star.

:lol

Never heard that one.

 

[Oblivion]

Agreed, I really don't want to see the Wii take the lead this gen, and while not as bad, I just don't think MS are quite as adventurous and forward looking as Sony is.

The hell? It's like some people think Sony made every game that appeared on their consoles...

I can understand being worried if Nintendo wins, but MS will keep things in balance, I think.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

:lol

Well Played.

-The PS3 is selling similar to the 360, during the same period.

The 360's supply didn't improve until April. February was it's worst month ever at 160something thousand. PS3 is, according to Sony, in fine supply now.

 

[fresquito]

Okay, for a turn, PS3 sales are terrible, but aren't Xbox360 sales too low too?

 

[Wiitard]

edt: no i'm not an economics student... but i like to think i understand the basic concepts.

If you have a chance of taking couple of econ classes you might enjoy them quite a lot.

 

[PleoMax]

I've mentioned this before, but with the Wii's crazy success, and Sony out of the console race, I wonder what this means for the future of MS' tech. Will they still go with exponential upgrades? They may follow in Nintendo's footsteps..

I doubt it. 1st, sony isn't out of the console race, let's not go overboard.

MS is all about leaps in technology that allow its software vision to materialize. We will see big jumps in technology but allways with MS trying to find that sweet spot between Power and Cost.

I really really doubt MS would ever do things like Nintendo just did.

 

[Grecco]

:lol

Never heard that one.

Credit Luke

 

[Joe Molotov]

Choose Your Own PR Spin #73: The Curse of the February NPD

You've been hired by one of the three console makers, and your job is to manufacture positive spin for your company's console. The February NPD numbers have just come on. Which company do you work for?

If you chose NINTENDO, go to Page 13.
If you chose MICROSOFT, go to Page 45.
If you chose SONY, go to Page 57.

Page 13: "Wii and DS is are the two best selling gaming consoles!"

Page 45: "XBOX 360 games are dominating the software chart!"

Page 57: "PSP and PS3 dominating the GBA and Gamecube!" You get fired. THE END

 

[vasuba]

Not surprised by the numbers, hehehe...
But I think that people in general are jumping to conclusions too fast.

For example, based on this numbers (in US)
-The PS3 is behind the Wii for around 800,000 units, which in some way is not bad considering that the "cheapest" PS3 costs TWICE the price of a Wii (even more interesting when you take into cosnideration that most people are buying the 60GB unit which costs $100 more).

-The PS3 is selling similar to the 360, during the same period.

Yeah..worldwide is another story, seeign how the PS3 hasn't been released across Europe and that in Japan it doesn't have an "RPG or a "non-game" that many like to call..hehehehe..

Oh well, next year...wil be more interesting.. After all, the original PS..started as slow as the PS3 and it wasn't till after a year that it started getting more sales.

Gaming as a whole is changing and its becoming more and more clear as is the demographics of the players. The same arguements been used for the PSP. "once the goods come all will change"

Hardcore gamers have always been a minority the only difference now is its becoming far more apparent as The Casuals and "Non gamers" finally use their voice to say hey **** the hardcore and are becoming a very important aspect far more then the hardcore were.

The Wii for all its flaws is designed to be the casual Gamer/Non gamer best friend and the sales certainly show it struck the right notes so far

 

[Bulla564]

Did you sorta miss the point completely?

I didn't. The PS3 currently has more selling points than the N64 ever had.

 

[Pellham]

It really says something when my die-hard Sony fan cousin decided to buy a 360 instead. He's anti social so I haven't been able to ask why he made that decision. Needless to say he's enjoying Xbox Live with us almost daily now but playing with him is like playing with bots -- he doesn't even talk

Maybe he bought a 360 cause he couldn't afford a PS3?

 

[Oblivion]

MS is all about leaps in technology that allow its software vision to materialize. We will see big jumps in technology but allways with MS trying to find that sweet spot between Power and Cost.

I really really doubt MS would ever do things like Nintendo just did.

Why? It's just as possible. Afterall, the most important thing is the bottom line for any company.

 

[outunderthestars]

For example, based on this numbers (in US)
-The PS3 is behind the Wii for around 800,000 units, which in some way is not bad considering that the "cheapest" PS3 costs TWICE the price of a Wii (even more interesting when you take into cosnideration that most people are buying the 60GB unit which costs $100 more).

-The PS3 is selling similar to the 360, during the same period.
.

You are forgetting one key fact: The xbox 360 had massive shortages at this point of its lifespan and the Wii continues to be sold out everywhere. PS3's are easily available, people just don't want to buy it.

 

[Oblivion]

I didn't. The PS3 currently has more selling points than the N64 ever had.

And even with all that, it's selling about half as well as the N64 did? Wow, I'd hate to see what'd happen if Sony DIDN'T have those things!

 

[Chris_C]

The hell? It's like some people think Sony made every game that appeared on their consoles...

I can understand being worried if Nintendo wins, but MS will keep things in balance, I think.

You have your victory, take it and leave me alone. No need to kick me when I'm down.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

we know the line up of software the 360 has for the rest of the year... we know sony have got some good titles, but most agree it doesn't come close.

Er...no. Imo, I think Sony's line-up is even stronger than Microsoft's and that is saying alot considering how strong Microsofts line-up is. I just don't think it is strong enough to sell a $500/$600 console.



Ninja Gaiden Sigma
Heavenly Sword
Lair
8 Days
Gran Turismo 5
MGS4
Final Fantasy 13(?)
DMC4
Ratchet and Clank
Warhawk
Tekken 6
Resident Evil 5(I know it is not exclusive, but they have it)
Grand Theft Auto IV(same as above)
White Knight
Final Fantasy 7 Remake(??????????)

 

[Jive Turkey]

Man I love this thread. Every time I finish reading a page two more have popped up. I'm going to have to read through this later and get me some good laughing.

 

[Wiitard]

The industry is changing is becoming more and more clear as is the demographics of the players. The same arguements been used for the PSP. "once the goods come all will change"

Hardcore gamers have always been a minority the only difference now is its becoming far more apparent as The Casuals and "Non gamers" finally use their voice to say hey **** the hardcore and are becoming a very important aspect far more then the hardcore were.

I'm not sure hardcore become unimportant per se. If you had 3 similar systems in price and features and hardcore choose one, that system would have won big time. It gets more complicated once you build a console around appealing almost exclusively to hardcore and then expect to force that system down the mainstream throat. I think MS and Sony trie to leverage the hardcore a bit too hard. But hardcore importance did not magically disappear.

 

[plagiarize]

You are forgetting one key fact: The xbox 360 had massive shortages at this point of its lifespan and the Wii continues to be sold out everywhere. PS3's are easily available, people just don't want to buy it.

well, people who want a blu-ray player want to buy it obviously

so, sony WERE right after all. i happily admit it... it's totally blu-ray helping the ps3 sales and not the other way around.

 

[legend166]

List wars!

 

[Oblivion]

You have your victory, take it and leave me alone. No need to kick me when I'm down.

I'm not trying to. What I meant was, third parties will still make all types of games for whichever consoles win. The worst thing I see happening is if you're a fan of Sony's internal studios, and they stop making games. But that won't happen.

 

[Gorgie]

With Wii sales so strong, I expect more 3rd parties to step up to the plate and start making mind blowing Wii games. It's obvious that awesome titles on the PS3 are just going to languish on the shelf. I can't believe Sony thought that a console $200 more than its competitor would sell based on brand alone, especially when multiplatform games are running worse on their crack monkey architecture.

 

[60_gig_PS3]

just stopping in to pay my respects at Sony's funeral.

 

[plagiarize]

Er...no. Imo, I think Sony's line-up is even stronger than Microsoft's and that is saying alot considering how strong Microsofts line-up is. I just don't think it is strong enough to sell a $500/$600 console.



Ninja Gaiden Sigma
Heavenly Sword
Lair
8 Days
Gran Turismo 5
MGS4
Final Fantasy 13(?)
DMC4
Ratchet and Clank
Warhawk
Tekken 6
Resident Evil 5(I know it is not exclusive, but they have it)
Grand Theft Auto IV(same as above)
White Knight
Final Fantasy 7 Remake(??????????)

for the rest of the year

you really don't think those are all coming out 2007 i hope.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Agreed, I really don't want to see the Wii take the lead this gen, and while not as bad, I just don't think MS are quite as adventurous and forward looking as Sony is.

Explain.

I just skimmed all 18 pages...NPD threads need their own summary threads. :lol

I know all the focus has been on PS3s horrible sales but man...DS sales are insane. Not Japan insane but...when April comes...

Sony-v