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NPD June 2012 Results [Up1: Microsoft/Nintendo Hardware, Lego Batman 2, Lollipop]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
metalslimer
Member
Well not exactly Persona 4 Golden performed over 3x that on a audience only 200k bigger in Japan.
specialguy
Banned
Petrae
Member
There's a gap of more than 4 million units to overcome, if you're talking about only US sales.
Wii will hit the 40MM mark in the US by year's end. It's over 39MM now. 360 will likely cross 35MM by October. Tough to say what happens for Nov-Dec. I could see the gap cut in half by year's end if Microsoft cuts 360 price for Q4, but that's a hunch.
professor_t
Member
Based on MS PR, I guess PS3 is at about 195k.
195k
Persona is a big name for them, something that cannot be said for unknown games like Gravity Rush in the US. Japan is also well known for higher tie ratios (ex. see how MGS4 and FFXIII performed on PS3 when the installed base was really low).
Petrae
Member
Think 2008.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
I concur!
If that is the case I definitly see it happening. Thought was still at least 5+. Wii will be so soft this fall. Really falling off the cliff already so to speak.
specialguy
Banned
Oh, I've been on that tip for like couple years now. It's actually fairly inevitable.
More likely though, we'll stop getting Wii sales numbers (as they continue to decline and after Wii U launches) so we wont know exactly when the crossover point occurs unless MS puts out a PR, but it'll happen.
So far this year the 360 is actually closing the gap slower than I expected, the reason being the hardware slowdown overall. It's hard to gain a lot when absolute numbers are so low. Still doesn't change the outcome, though.
Petrae
Member
I'd like to see Nintendo drop Wii to $100 and clear inventory. If that happens, we *could* see one last mild spike period. After that, though, I do agree that Wii will fade pretty quickly.
Depends what you mean by "better."
OldJadedGamer
Banned
They held onto the 6 million up to a month before fiscal ended. Also, as you pointed out with the years that followed, Sony has had a very hard time hitting their projected numbers since 2006.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
I don't own a Vita yet but my brother does. He's been complaining recently that there isn't anything to play on it and even tried to sell it on Craigslist.
I've tried several times to get him to pick up Gravity Rush but he shows no interest.Our local Gamestop even has it for $30 new and he still wouldn't bite. Something about it, I guess.
I've tried several times to get him to pick up Gravity Rush but he shows no interest.Our local Gamestop even has it for $30 new and he still wouldn't bite. Something about it, I guess.
Dat momentum
That's simply not true. You're just sticking to the 6m vs 3.5m of the first year which was made before the product was actually launched while ignoring the rest:
FY2007 10m (fc) 9.1(act)
FY2008 10m (fc) 10.1(act)
FY2009 13m (fc) 13m(act)
FY2010 15m(fc) 14.3(act)
FY2011 15m(fc) 13.9(act)
They have a good track record not to mention that they have been mostly spot on with their PSP forecasts and they actually understimated PS2 for many years.
So if they're forecasting 10m for Vita they could do 9m, 8.x m in the worst case, but it's not like that the forecast will be cut in half or something like that.
Conrad Link
Member
Dragon's Dogma. 
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Dragon's Bomba
Umm, it very well could be. Thinking they have to sell at least 8 because they projected 10 misses the fact that they could be really, really wrong.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
They were wrong 4 out 6 times. More than half. I wouldn't call that a good track record.
SaintMadeOfPlaster
Member
EVERY store around here had sold out of Pokemon Conquest very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if it would've cracked the top 5 had there been more units supplied.
Little Green Yoda
Member
Wouldn't it also be easier to forecast sales of an established platform since you have more data on how the public perceives the product?
Man, love sales threat (giving my background in communication and marketing). Really bad about the Vita sales, like everyone says, games are what is need. BUT many are moving to 3DS and most likely to save money on assets since they could easily use PSP assets for it compare to creating new assets for Vita.
Though I might be wrong on the assets department, but that is just my personal take on sudden PSP franchise shift to 3DS. I just think is easier to reuse past assets that saves a ton of money in development and quick turn around for game release. Someone more inform could correct me if is hard to use PSP assets on 3DS or something.
Though I might be wrong on the assets department, but that is just my personal take on sudden PSP franchise shift to 3DS. I just think is easier to reuse past assets that saves a ton of money in development and quick turn around for game release. Someone more inform could correct me if is hard to use PSP assets on 3DS or something.
Stealth20k
Banned
psp support is winding down in japan too as hard as that is to believe
Four_Chamber
Member
#gamechanger
I'm curious how large the gap between their sales forecast and actual sales will be.
Psychotext
Member
I might be wrong, but I believe they also adjusted their forecasts (downwards) on two separate occasions.
TheNatural
My Member!
Yet another horrible month. Yet another month price drop on anything won't occur as well.
MyAbsolution
Member
I know the format has been like this for a while..
but holy hell I miss the old format. No guess-work, they just gave us all the numbers and the disc formats weren't pooled. This is just so boring.
Nice to see decent 3DS numbers. I recently bought one and am very happy with my purchase.
but holy hell I miss the old format. No guess-work, they just gave us all the numbers and the disc formats weren't pooled. This is just so boring.
Nice to see decent 3DS numbers. I recently bought one and am very happy with my purchase.
What do you expect, to be 100% spot on every time with a forecast? It's called a 'forecast' for a reason.
It's a good track record because the numbers they want to hit have always been reasonable and in line with the actual results.
You're not seeing from Sony a 15m forecast becoming a 8m actual result or something like that.
Of course they can make a mistake, but if they're forecasting 10m it means they have a strategy in place to sell those (price cuts, games, bundles, whatever), they perfectly know what the Vita situation is right now, they know that people won't start buying those suddenly without a good reason.
They could be optimistic, but I doubt that we're going to see actual results dramatically different from what they expect (actual difference >15-20%)
specialguy
Banned
I dont know what this was getting at, I thought you were trying to hint PS3 sold as much in June 08 as this June. So I went back and looked at my data...
Umm, geez when was PS3 doing so good I dont recall that LOL, and wow@those numbers.
Well shit, not me.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Can you translate that into English?
If they forecast 10m in the middle of ongoing slow sales, they obviously have a plan. Whether they sell 8m or 12m is not terribly important. They expect sales to take off and they have a plan to make it happen. All it takes is a price drop and a big game and suddenly the crap on Vita meme does a 180. Remember the PS3 'has no games' meme?
Whatever you say man. I guess we'll see.
You make sound so easy if that's all they have to do. Guess nobody has to worry about the Vita then.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
They did so they were farther off then he is making it seem. They in fact had to lower the original numbers twice for the PS3. I think they were only right on the numbers a single time since launch.
Again, during the PS3 launch year they hit barely half they number of what was originally projected.
The system sold during this period was the very last system to even include BC with PS2 titles.
grimshawish
Banned
A plan? Its a random number that only highlights the failures at the top of Sony.
Vita was launched with no strategy, Vita has no strategy.
Its a terrible mess; the hardware is poorly designed (from a business POV; its too expensive and the design screams PSP not 'VITA' - major branding failure); the games are middling; the marketing at launch was terrible (it looked great, and the UK one would have made a fantastic PS3 ad, but not Vita) and is now non-existent; Sony are just not backing this system...in anyway - except the loss on each unit (if there is one).
Sony have a lot of problems at the top. Their bleeding money and have been for a long long time now; why on earth would they somehow be more competent with Vita?
And again that doesn't matter because that forecast was made before the product was launched, they didn't know that sales would nosedive until Jan/Feb 2007.
The 10m Vita forecast was made when they perfectly knew that Vita was not selling well. It's a completely different situation.
But still if you think that the 10m Vitas will become 4-6m in reality (if that's your point)....that's ok, we'll see how things will unfold
JohnnySasaki86
Member
MGS4 launch month. One of the only times has a game moved PS3 hardware. Pretty sure this was there biggest June ever for PS3.
so with PS3 doing 195k, and 360 doing 257k isn't this a huge increase over last month? I thought 360 did around 190k last month, and PS3 did around ~150k? Isnt this good news? why always focus on the negative and compare to last year?
MGS4 launch month + bundle.
A 600$ bundle
It was sad a hell too that right after that they announced the 40GB was going to replace it killing off BC and all the extra slots. That MGS4 bundle was selling like hotcakes and they just killed all that momentum and never really got it back. Good job Sony :/
JohnnySasaki86
Member
where was this confirmed? and im sure the majority of the Gravity sales were done on the PSN due to the promotion. It was confirmed on IGN that Gravity Rush was the 2nd highest selling PSN game, with MGS HD collection being number 1. Vita games both took the top spots.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Last NPD was 4 weeks, this was 5 weeks.
Petrae
Member
YOY comparisons are usually one of the main tools in sales analysis. I do agree that, looking at monthly comparisons, there are some positives here. However, seeing that sales have settled back to 2008 & 2009 levels and with likely 12+ months left in this console cycle, there's some cause for concern.
It's not just PS3 that's regressed, either. Look at X360 sales for June 2008 and June 2009. The numbers are pretty similar. The difference is that the Wii juggernaut that was adding so much revenue is now all but dead. We can blame the Wii and Nintendo for this decline, as there was too long of a wait for the Wii's successor... but it can be argued that Microsoft and Sony are making the exact same mistake after better years in 2010 and 2011.
Father_Brain
Banned
You apparently don't, since the comparison between PS3's and Vita's announced software lineups at this point in their respective lifespans isn't remotely flattering to Vita. PS3 didn't turn around based on software that materialized out of nowhere while it was still selling abysmally.
Wow at the number of consoles that were sold back then, especially the ds. The market is so weak right now.
Isn't DS selling too much still? Amazing how it gained the US crowd.
Surprised about Pokemon Conquest. Totally niche genre but even Pokemon can sell it.
I'm not US, but whenever I go to a store, I always see moms buying DSi XLs and completely ignoring the 3DS... Kids need to wise up!
Surprised about Pokemon Conquest. Totally niche genre but even Pokemon can sell it.
I'm not US, but whenever I go to a store, I always see moms buying DSi XLs and completely ignoring the 3DS... Kids need to wise up!
Week 36:
Week 38 (DS at the end of 2007)
I don't know if that end spike is truly when DS sales went nuts. Both GBA and the DS have steep slopes at 12 month intervals (holiday sales) and that last DS jump happens at 12 months after the previous one. If we see another few months past this, we might see the sales slope return to normal. Just Sayin'
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Also it was the first system ever to ship with the DS3.