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[mckmas8808]

Again, the Pro isn’t going to be this transformative device many of you think it will be and GTA is eons away. Expectations really need to be checked.

The top selling home console is still at least $399. That is the issue. Everything else is secondary.

This isn't fully true. The top selling console "type" is at least $499.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

This isn't fully true. The top selling console "type" is at least $499.

The digital is $499 now?

Edit: nevermind. I see what you meant. I was talking the PS5 in general!

 

[Unknown?]

Number 1 against a dead platform and one that is 8 years old and a 45% drop in hardware sales!

It's time to CELEBRATE!!!!

I remember people celebrating Switch being #1 in 2019 against a 6 year old console. Nothing new.

 

[nial]

45% drop in what should be its peak years.

That's the third year for the most part starting this century; FY '02 for PS2, '16 for PS4 and '23 for PS5. The big outlier was PS3 peaking at '10 due to the very high price of the console early on.

 

[mckmas8808]

I really think that a PS5 Pro "Series S" with 30CU RDNA "4" could save the HD consoles. slightly better CPU a little worse GPU but compatible with PSSR and better support for RT the only complicated thing is compatibility. If you can sell this for $300 in its digital version it would be a resounding success.

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The "Series S" is a LOSER idea. Can people stop with this craziness. It wasn't good for Microsoft, nor would it be good for Sony.

 

[nial]

Dead Rising rise might have to do with the PS5 Pro patch being announced.

It's a pretty massive difference.

Because AFAIK it never had a sale.

Deluxe Remaster was released in September, lol.
Circana is counting it as another SKU of Dead Rising, but I think it shouldn't.

 

[XXL]

Deluxe Remaster was released in September, lol.
Circana is counting it as another SKU of Dead Rising, but I think it shouldn't.

Ok thanks. I haven't been really paying attention to it until the Pro support announcement.

 

[mckmas8808]

Even as an enthusiast I struggle to justify owning one of these consoles. There's barely any exclusives, performance is trash, gotta pay for online features. PC really is the place to be these days.

The analysis on forums is in massive decline.

Some of you are really struggling to keep up with the new industry. It's not just about units sold, especially in a time where manufacturers can't cut prices to push more units.

The focus is on MAU and software sales.

Despite there being no big Starfield level release content spending is only down 3% YOY. That's a very strong result. How is it possible with hardware sales down so much? It's because MAUs deliver sales regardless of what hardware it sells on. Someone subscribing to PS+ or GamePass on PS4 or X1 is paying just as much as someone on PS5 or XBS.

If anything it shows how little impact Starfield had last year.

Neither Sony or Microsoft is interested in destroying operating income simply to push hardware to people who are playing Fortnite and other F2P games. That's just a reality.

I don't know why gamers are so focused in units sold on consoles they already own. These gamers are still playing games, the industry is having a pretty good year and yes GTA6 is going to push many people from the previous generation into this one.

As for cross gen, that's a new reality. The architecture isn't changing, game development spans hardware now. It's been like that in the PC world since forever. There is no such thing as a next generation game, it just comes down to CPU, GPU, and memory.

I think you are overestimating what software sales and MAUs mean to PlayStation though. With the Xbox you are right!

- PS Portal and PS5 Pro says you're wrong about the bolded. Units sold still matter. It's just the end all be all. But it matters!

 

[Bojanglez]

PS5 pro isn't going to do anything for PS5 sales other than a slight increase in November, what PS5 needs is a price cut to $399 even though at $549 it's the biggest seller by far, almost 2:1 to Xbox.

Astrobot has done incredibly well placing second.

The Pro will obviously have a big impact first month and I'd imagine it will sell a steady amount monthly beyond that, maybe 10-20% of all sales each month.

In many ways it's biggest role is to help make the PS5 look better value, people will see how much cheaper it is and know they are still getting a good next gen experience. That tied in with the inevitable periodic price drops of the base console, will see it sell very well over the next few months.

 

[Fake]

PS5 pro isn't going to do anything for PS5 sales other than a slight increase in November, what PS5 needs is a price cut to $399 even though at $549 it's the biggest seller by far, almost 2:1 to Xbox.

Astrobot has done incredibly well placing second.

Agree. I don't get why people think PS5pro will make changes... I mean, was PS4pro the same effect?

 

[Three]

AstroGOD doing lords work

PS5 going down a la Xbone Series is OOF!

Guess the future is Steam + Nintendo after all, if only their HW wasn't so underpowered

JFC the silly hyperbole here. PS5 was the best selling console even this month in both units and revenue.

 

[mayham2199]

I think you are overestimating what software sales and MAUs mean to PlayStation though. With the Xbox you are right!

- PS Portal and PS5 Pro says you're wrong about the bolded. Units sold still matter. It's just the end all be all. But it matters!

Sure but he didn't say units sold doesn't matter. He said the focus is on MAU's and even Sony has confirmed this themselves.

 

[mckmas8808]

Another estimation from IB (not sure how accurate it is though):

We need Luminoth-4545 to update his running chart with this info!!!

 

[BigBeauford]

Wait I thought people were dancing on Star Wars: Outlaws grave? How did it hold up to number 6 in it's 2nd month above a lot of new releases?

Lmao, its "2nd month". You know it was out for one day the prior month, and didn't crack the top 20 for yearly sellers.

 

[mckmas8808]

Agree. I don't get why people think PS5pro will make changes... I mean, was PS4pro the same effect?

It adds a strong floor to PS hardware sales. So yes, they matter. The same way Nintendo putting out a OLED Switch helps with hardware sales. It's not different for PS at all.

Sure but he didn't say units sold doesn't matter. He said the focus is on MAU's and even Sony has confirmed this themselves.

But MAUs come from hardware units sold. I agree MAUs matter, but to what end? If people stop buying the PS console, how much will MAUs matter in 5 years? There's more money made in new hardware too. I'm also more likely to spend more money on software (Alan Wake 2, Black Myth Wukong, Cyberpunk 2077, etc.) now that I'm going to have better PS hardware (PS5 Pro). Lets not forget that.

 

[kazuyamishima]

The top selling home console is still at least $399. That is the issue. Everything else is secondary.

The Digital Slim is $450

I’m sure that will help but we’ve gone through several Black Fridays already with some steep discounts for price sensitive buyers, especially Xbox Series consoles.

what the hell are you talking about? BF 2023 was the only one that had any kind of promotion with a $499 PS5 Slim Bundle, The Phat PS5 for $349 was a Target Clearance.

The Pro will do some nice numbers and people are underestimating that the Digital Slim will be $375 this coming BF.

 

[Jaybe]

The Digital Slim is $450

what the hell are you talking about? BF 2023 was the only one that had any kind of promotion with a $499 PS5 Slim Bundle, The Phat PS5 for $349 was a Target Clearance.

The Pro will do some nice numbers and people are underestimating that the Digital Slim will be $375 this coming BF.

This was the best deal on a PS5, though I wasn’t talking only about PlayStations in my post.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I think you are overestimating what software sales and MAUs mean to PlayStation though. With the Xbox you are right!

- PS Portal and PS5 Pro says you're wrong about the bolded. Units sold still matter. It's just the end all be all. But it matters!

PS Portal has sold to about 3% of PS5 users and PS5 Pro is almost certainly sold at a high margin.

You're actually proving my point here.

When selling MORE consoles hurts your bottom line, you don't really care about selling more units, unless people are going to your competition. The worst thing that someone could do for sony is to turn their ps4 off, buy a ps5, and keep playing fortnite.

They would much rather people buy the PS5 Pro.

Imagine the PS5 Pro has 75 dollars of margin and imagine the PS5 base sells for a loss of 25 dollars. Selling 10 million units of base PS5s is 250 million dollars in losses. Now sell just 1 million PS5 Pros... that's 75 million dollars in profit. 2 million, that's 150 million dollars in profit.

Night and day situation when GTA6 comes out.

Until MAUs start to drop there is pretty much no incentive to drop the price.

 

[kazuyamishima]

This was the best deal on a PS5, though I wasn’t talking only about PlayStations in my post.

yeah, they were doing a clearance sale on the OG phat disc on Target.

This will be the First year where the PS5 will have an official discount for BF.

MS has done a few in the past for their Xbox Series consoles.

 

[tommib]

I don’t think there’s one person in the world that anticipated the Portal being the success that it is. M

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Yup. I've mentioned this in another post here in gaf not too long ago, but part of me is dumbfounded on how every time I log onto my PS5, half my friends are on PS4. I mean, I do get it in a way, as most of these people play CoD, fortnite, and 2k so there really isn't a need. I just couldn't imagine be stuck on those last gen consoles still but I guess if the games you need are still there, why not.

Also pretty telling that Sony just refuses to drop the price, if the hardware was doing as bad as so people make it out to be on here, it wouldn't still be at launch prices. And hell, some countries actually got a price increase since 2020.

MAUs being still high means that these people aren't jumping from PS4 to PC. They're still actively playing their PS4s as you said Fortnite, CoD.. e.t.c.

They'll leave when they can't play those games anymore, which is coming. There is a good chance PS5 could outsell this fiscal yers numbers next fiscal year simply because of GTA6 and games coming out that won't have last gen editions.

Sony is probably falling short of their forecast and are willing to drum up numbers with discounting in order to not have a terrible number in headlines, but discounting to 350 dollars especially for the holiday period... is going ot hurt financially. Perhaps offset by PS5 Pro sales margins.

 

[EN250]

JFC the silly hyperbole here. PS5 was the best selling console even this month in both units and revenue.

Eh, being the best selling this month against Xbone Series that keeps nosediving and the Switch that's like 8-9 years old, doesn't look impressive tbh

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam releases and don't bother buying a console

 

[Unknown?]

Eh, being the best selling this month against Xbone Series that keeps nosediving and the Switch that's like 8-9 years old, doesn't look impressive tbh

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam licenses and don't bother buying a console

FTFY

 

[HeWhoWalks]

The Digital Slim is $450

Yeah, I know.

 

[Three]

Eh, being the best selling this month against Xbone Series that keeps nosediving and the Switch that's like 8-9 years old, doesn't look impressive tbh

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam releases and don't bother buying a console

So being the best selling isn't impressive now?
Why do you assume potential buyers already have PCs? What if I told you PC gaming hardware spending has also nosedived in 2024?
Gaming hardware spending is generally down.

 

[kazuyamishima]

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam releases and don't bother buying a console

Digital Slim and Disc Slim will be $375 and $425 respectively during BF (for 2 weeks), I think sales will be good.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

For everyone thinking Sony needs to push PS4 owners to buy PS5s... look at the top downloads from PS Store on PS4 for September...

The only full priced games they're buying are the annual sports games. The rest of the games are F2P, cheap, or discounted.

Not all MAUs are equal and not all console sales are equal.

 

[chokotoureiki]

Eh, being the best selling this month against Xbone Series that keeps nosediving and the Switch that's like 8-9 years old, doesn't look impressive tbh

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam releases and don't bother buying a console

It is when you consider it is the most expensive system still outselling its much cheaper competitors despite allegedly having "no games". Typically, its the cheaper systems with less graphics capabilities that sell more, but in this case, its the complete opposite. The most powerful system being the top seller....in what universe does that happen?

 

[demigod]

Getting beaten by the Switch.

 

[Heisenberg007]

That chart is a flawed estimate and not reliable. I understand why specific people keep posting it though.

PC is crushing it right now. Games are selling better and better as more people enter the space. PlayStation has even started porting their games because they see which way the wind is blowing.

I understand these are uncomfortable truths, but it is what it is.

Dude, at least show your own data if you're gonna call Wall Street Journal's data "flawed and not reliable."

 

[Panajev2001a]

45% drop for PS5 is insane.

Yes, please keep porting games to PC. it's working out really well for your console sales.

I am sure the first party titles ported to PC greatly offset losses of PS+ subscribers and 30% fees on any third party revenue on the platform… sigh… weird path…

 

[Alan Wake]

I am Astro Bot.

Keep rollin'!

 

[onQ123]

Eh, being the best selling this month against Xbone Series that keeps nosediving and the Switch that's like 8-9 years old, doesn't look impressive tbh

With more PlayStation games going multiplatform on PC, more people will just wait for Steam releases and don't bother buying a console

Switch is only 3 years older than PS5 it's 7 years old vs PS5 being 4 years old next month.

 

[Loboxxx]

I understand that SeriesX did not sell much last year, when sales will be 54% less? if this happens in the USA, the situation of Microsoft's console must be dramatic at the hardware level.

 

[Loboxxx]

45% drop for PS5 is insane.

Yes, please keep porting games to PC. it's working out really well for your console sales.

Surely they have raised 3000% the vertical supports of the console, that compensates and keep in mind that a Pro version of PS5 is coming out in a few weeks, that 45% is probably waiting to buy the premium model and while they are playing Hellblade 2 on PC.

 

[Pedro Motta]

PS5 desperately needs a price drop.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

PS5 desperately needs a price drop.

Desperately? No. However, to soften YoY/MoM drops, yes something needs to be done in addition to releasing the Pro.

 

[Pedro Motta]

Desperately? No. However, to soften YoY/MoM drops, yes something needs to be done in addition to releasing the Pro.

I meant if they want to reach PS4 level of sales figures. Maybe they don't need that.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

I meant if they want to reach PS4 level of sales figures. Maybe they don't need that.

I doubt that they won’t. Still plenty of cards left to play and huge releases to drop.

 

[DenchDeckard]

I don’t think there’s one person in the world that anticipated the Portal being the success that it is. M

I think it shows that, whoever can get streaming right is going to see success in some form on these kinds of devices.

 

[Felessan]

I think it shows that, whoever can get streaming right is going to see success in some form on these kinds of devices.

It's not only about streaming itself.
As servers cost several times console for the same performance to make it financially viable for the same consumer value, a method to ensure high concurrency (i.e. multiple people utilize the same virtual console) and/or selling computing power of off-peak hours to someone else is required.
And some other organizational problems, like how to deal with rush hours on big game releases without making a huge waiting lines.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

InstallBase estimates September 2024

PS5: 280k
NSW: 165k
XBS: 150k

September 2023 for comparison

PS5: 480k
XBS: 300k
NSW: 210k


Estimations for 2024

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
January	425,000	210,000	250,000
February	410,000	195,000	220,000
March	525,000	205,000	235,000
April	240,000	105,000	140,000
May	220,000	110,000	130,000
June	330,000	165,000	180,000
July	370,000	250,000	145,000
August	230,000	135,000	115,000
September	280,000	150,000	165,000
Total	3,030,000	1,525,000	1,580,000
Lifetime	21,690,000	15,075,000	45,760,000

Full Estimations for 2023

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
January	430,000	200,000	280,000
February	560,000	240,000	290,000
March	660,000	280,000	340,000
April	340,000	170,000	420,000
May	260,000	160,000	450,000
June	430,000	240,000	350,000
July	270,000	160,000	240,000
August	390,000	210,000	200,000
September	480,000	300,000	200,000
October	360,000	200,000	210,000
November	1,050,000	580,000	560,000
December	1,520,000	1,110,000	1,230,000
Total	6,760,000	3,850,000	4,770,000
Lifetime	18,660,000	13,550,000	44,180,000

* Estimations, The Consumer Electronics Suppliers Association (CESA) white paper will be out in December so hopefully we get official U.S sales for 2023.

Note: For Year 1 most consoles released in November but the Switch, 3DS and PSP released in March and the GBA in June.

Do you have by any chance an IB forum account to check the old/archived NPD threads and see how PS4 and XBO performed in the US during the same period launch aligned? More specifically I'd like to see the 2017 September NPD data. Thanks and keep up the great work with keeping track of all the HW sales data.

 

[Woopah]

Do you have by any chance an IB forum account to check the old/archived NPD threads and see how PS4 and XBO performed in the US during the same period launch aligned? More specifically I'd like to see the 2017 September NPD data. Thanks and keep up the great work with keeping track of all the HW sales data.

September 2017 was:

PS4 - 300,000
Xbox One - 180,000

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

September 2017 was:

PS4 - 300,000
Xbox One - 180,000

Thanks. Based on the hardware estimations we have from Welfare, it's not all "doom and gloom" when looking at the hardware figures from a launch-aligned perspective. Yes, they're a tad lower, but still good figures nonetheless when taking into account the higher average prices for PS5 and Xbox Series compared to PS4 and Xbox One.

 

[Woopah]

Thanks. Based on the hardware estimations we have from Welfare, it's not all "doom and gloom" when looking at the hardware figures from a launch-aligned perspective. Yes, they're a tad lower, but still good figures nonetheless when taking into account the higher average prices for PS5 and Xbox Series compared to PS4 and Xbox One.

Yes I agree with that. Hardware sales in the US aren't anything amazing in terms of units, but aren't bad at all.

For Switch, the best comparison I could think of was the 360 in September 2013. It did 179,000.

 

[mckmas8808]

PS Portal has sold to about 3% of PS5 users and PS5 Pro is almost certainly sold at a high margin.

You're actually proving my point here.

When selling MORE consoles hurts your bottom line, you don't really care about selling more units, unless people are going to your competition. The worst thing that someone could do for sony is to turn their ps4 off, buy a ps5, and keep playing fortnite.

They would much rather people buy the PS5 Pro.

Imagine the PS5 Pro has 75 dollars of margin and imagine the PS5 base sells for a loss of 25 dollars. Selling 10 million units of base PS5s is 250 million dollars in losses. Now sell just 1 million PS5 Pros... that's 75 million dollars in profit. 2 million, that's 150 million dollars in profit.

Night and day situation when GTA6 comes out.

Until MAUs start to drop there is pretty much no incentive to drop the price.

Technically the bolded is correct. But I hate that type of thinking, because it's normal "Bean Counter" thinking. It's the difference between having Steve Jobs run your company or Tim Cook.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Technically the bolded is correct. But I hate that type of thinking, because it's normal "Bean Counter" thinking. It's the difference between having Steve Jobs run your company or Tim Cook.

That's only if you ignore MAUs are the new model for the industry.

There was a complete fall off of PS3 game sales with PS4. GaaS didn't really exist, MTX was in infancy. The model has changed. It's not just bean counting. The TAM hasn't grown at all in the console space in decades and likely won't grow except for emerging markets like China, India, Brazil, and to a degree South Korea.

 

[onQ123]

September 2017 was:

PS4 - 300,000
Xbox One - 180,000

That also includes PS4 Pro while PS5 Pro is coming in a year l later

 

[Woopah]

That also includes PS4 Pro while PS5 Pro is coming in a year l later

Correct, the impact of the Pro will be later in PS5's lifecycle.

 

[Synastry]

Another estimation from IB (not sure how accurate it is though):

Thanks. Based on the hardware estimations we have from Welfare, it's not all "doom and gloom" when looking at the hardware figures from a launch-aligned perspective. Yes, they're a tad lower, but still good figures nonetheless when taking into account the higher average prices for PS5 and Xbox Series compared to PS4 and Xbox One.

I'm lost which one is numbers are right?