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[SayBooSayDo-SayBooSayWho]

They closed the gap from 1.1 mil to 800k since last year. PS4 also hasn't had ANY official price cuts as opposed to the Xbox. On top - PS4 won 6 out of the 7 months while having a price disadvantage. PS4 definitely has a price cut card up their sleeve and it could be big (could being the key word depending on how they execute). They also have 3 of the mainstream games being marketed on their platform - COD, BF, AC. If they bundle these with the system with a $50 price cut I think MS will have an extremely difficult time on their hands this year if they think they can outperform the PS4 with last holiday's numbers.

I never said they would beat last holiday numbers, I still have some doubts if Xbox will ever even close the gap. All I'm saying is that it seems like the outselling rate of the PS4 is lower and these last few months were unexpected.

 

[cakely]

It's widening but it's widening at a lesser and lesser pace, there are months were the leads were basically non existent.

The gap is still there (800k).

The gap is still widening (30k, as of July).

You're basing a prediction on the second derivative of that gap. It's a lagging indicator, to say the least.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I may be wrong but it seems like because I pointed out you were wrong about your above statement you're throwing an accusation towards me, that's a poor sport.
Also MS didn't have two bundles that sold out, SSO was not during the holiday, and COD: AW still had a few units in stores once the holiday was over, but it didn't matter because there was a limited quantity and it was very expensive. I have no idea why you're trying to spin things, GTA V was sold out, and when the bundle got restocked it sold out again, GTA V bundle was not just on black friday because I brought one for a gift in December.

Everything you're saying is pointless, I'm not even trying to defend the Xbox hear, you're just making up scenarios that didn't exist.

I'm sorry, but you're the one who trying to spin this into something that's not true. The two situations are not the same. MS's offerings were long term while Sony's offerings were short term. Using the GTAV as a counterargument to the potential effect of Sony's marketing rights to COD, AC, and SW is extremely flawed.

And your second paragraph is a clear sign of conspiracy paranoia. Not once did I accuse you for defending the Xbox, so who is really making up the scenarios that don't exist and being a poor sport?

 

[vin-buc]

1.1M to 500K, not 800K

I was talking about the gap as it stands today which is about 800k.

 

[SayBooSayDo-SayBooSayWho]

I'm sorry, but you're the one who trying to spin this into something that's not true. The two situations are not the same. MS's offerings were long term while Sony's offerings were short term. Using the GTAV as a counterargument to the potential effect of Sony's marketing rights to COD, AC, and SW is extremely flawed.

And your second paragraph is a clear sign of conspiracy paranoia. Not once did I accuse you for defending the Xbox, so who is really making up the scenarios that don't exist and being a poor sport?

I didn't spin anything, you were wrong about what you SAID and I corrected you, as i said in the very post you quoted. I never once said the situations were similar I said SSO was not during the holiday, COD AW was limited and still has unsold stock after the holiday (and I was eyeing it) and that GTA V not only sold out (you looked to me to imply it didn't but SSO/COD did i could be wrong.) but was also sold outside of BF. Also it's not paranoia you directly put a accusation in yours starting paragraph, you think I'm blind?

With that said there's no reason continuing the conversation, I just pointed out some info you may have gotten wrong to help you out and that's all I was trying to do.

The gap is still there (800k).

The gap is still widening (30k, as of July).

You're basing a prediction on the second derivative of that gap. It's a lagging indicator, to say the least.

Well again, I'm still have doubts about there being momentum (for xbox) into the holiday, they got the exclusives but that's still up in the air, but I do think that I should start considering other situations based on the out of nowhere surprises that happened the last two months.

Overall I think PS4 will probably still get a good deal this holiday if they use their TP games right. Like a COD bundle and and BF bundle alone would probably do the trick.

 

[Square2015]

What this thread does include, though, is some truly fantastic charts from Terry Travis, about same-month sales of previous generations. These numbers are much, much harder to search for or discover, and give a fuller view of the evolving market than the trickles leaked from NPD nowadays....

...But they don't feed into the current console war, so of course not a single person has mentioned them.

To partially rectify that, I'll note two things: first, Halo was putting in work in 2004! Over 2 years since launch, and still hitting almost 100k in a month...that's incredible legs for a core game (though maybe also indicative that there wasn't much else desirable on Xbox). And given that Goldeneye was a similarly huge hit well after launch the previous gen, I wonder how many N64 kids made the transition to Microsoft there.

Second, I bet strategists at EA are desperately hoping that the player rights/likeness issues with college sports get straightened out soon. It was never Madden, but not being able to field a million-selling NCAA version of football annually anymore must chafe.

Once again, thank you very much for your continuous excellent contributions, Terry Travis. You make GAF better by your presence and commitment.

Thank you for this post, it makes me feel appreciated for what I do for GAF, thanks Liabe Brave =)
BTW Terry Travis is not my name, this is a borrowed account from a friend (my previous accounts kept getting banned...can a mod change my name?).

July TOP15 NPD

JULY 09:
Wii sells a quarter million. Wii Sports, the bundled title that largely sold the Wii to everyone including your grandmom gets its sequel, and probably to no ones surprise sells half a million in its opening week.
Finally something that can top NCAA a title that is No.1 every July (now if only the same could be done for Madden), A single NCAA SKU was number 1 the past SIX Julys straight (back to 2002)!
Wii, 360 monthly gap narrows to just 50k on the increasing strength of the 360 and Americans running out of households (and retirement centers) to put Wiis in, has Wii saturation begun?

JULY 04:
Sega Sports and the 2K series becomes Take Two's ESPN series this year and to assure its success in the post-Sega console age, the said titles are released at $20; will ESPN become a formidable opponent to EA's domination? Launching one month ahead of the beast known as Madden, can ESPN NFL stop it or will it be a repeat of the once neck-and-neck Sega Sports vs. EA war?
Tales goes mainstream! Err well among gamers, Symphonia outsells every previous Tales release in its first month!
GC pushes 93,000, XB continues its best year with 175,000. GC LTD is 7.5m to XB's 8.9m. PS2 continues to be the monster that it is with 305,000 sold for the month breaching 23m LTD.

JULY 99:
After debuting with 25,000, Driver explodes in its first full month to top the charts. The first Pokémon console title debuts on N64 with Pokémon Snap. By comparison Pokémon Red & Blue sold an estimated 430,000 this SAME month, nearing 4m since its launch just last September (...and it was only the beginning...). Final Fantasy VII became a Greatest Hits this month as FFVIII is but two months away and Star Ocean doing decently in its second month being a new IP.
PSX sold 170,000 to N64's 120,000.

JULY 94:
SUPER Street Fighter debuts!! Could MK fever have dampened some of the SF love? Nintendo sports > Sega sports this month, that says something. Last month 3D arcade graphics debuted with Virtua Racing (selling 15,000), this month Nintendo fires back with an FX title, Stunt Race, which made its debut (to mixed reviews). Also this month the tide turns back in favor of NCL on the hardware front, oh and Streets of Rage 3 debuts hardly noticed at #26 (with 11,000 sold) :/
SNES sold 120,000 GEN 110,000.

JUN '15 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=172408675&postcount=1863
MAY '15 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=167802939&highlight=#post167802939
APR '15: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2484
MAR '15: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=3799
XMAS report '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2394
SEP '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=5568
AUG '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2855

 

[John Harker]

Does it even matter anymore? I mean, percentage wise this ~1M gap is becoming more and more meaningless as time goes on.

Unless, if PS4 cuts to $299 and starts selling like 30% more from there on, the market is split.

Nope, doesn't really matter. ~800k-1mm platform difference isn't really going to impact much. Software sales are robust on both, there's not a significant enough difference to make a market impact for big software developers.

Just comes down to whose writing the bigger checks haha

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I didn't spin anything, you were wrong about what you SAID and I corrected you, as i said in the very post you quoted. I never once said the situations were similar I said SSO was not during the holiday, COD AW was limited and still has unsold stock after the holiday (and I was eyeing it) and that GTA V not only sold out (you looked to me to imply it didn't but SSO/COD did i could be wrong.) but was also sold outside of BF. Also it's not paranoia you directly put a accusation in yours starting paragraph, you think I'm blind?

With that said there's no reason continuing the conversation, I just pointed out some info you may have gotten wrong to help you out and that's all I was trying to do.

Both SSO and COD AW were available for November and for the latter, for December. SSO sold out the quickest, but regardless, it played some role in November. Most of the GTAV bundle's sales came from Black Friday. It was available after BF, but in very miniscule amounts.

And you have had a extensive history of making accusations and baseless posts, Microsoft Chad/Doctor Professional/Herman Cain/TheGrimReaper. You're not fooling anyone.

 

[SayBooSayDo-SayBooSayWho]

Both SSO and COD AW were available for November and for the latter, for December. SSO sold out the quickest, but regardless, it played some role in November. Most of the GTAV bundle's sales came from Black Friday. It was available after BF, but in very miniscule amounts.

And you have had a extensive history of making accusations and baseless posts, Microsoft Chad/Doctor Professional/Herman Cain/TheGrimReaper. You're not fooling anyone.

You seem to really hate being incorrect and backpedaling with your posts, and you were even corrected in another area by a user a few posts up, so you clearly have soem issue about saying things without anything to back it up as if they are fact. So I'll just go my separate ways since we clearly aren't getting along here and we are derailing the thread.

 

[cakely]

And you have had a extensive history of making accusations and baseless posts, Microsoft Chad/Doctor Professional/Herman Cain/TheGrimReaper. You're not fooling anyone.

Junior, 23 total posts, seven of them in this NPD thread. Similar posting style. I think you might be on to something.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

You seem to really hate being incorrect and backpedaling with your posts, and you were even corrected in another area by a user a few posts up, so you clearly have soem issue about saying things without anything to back it up as if they are fact. So I'll just go my separate ways since we clearly aren't getting along here and we are derailing the thread.

The other user corrected me because I thought he was referring to MS reducing the gap from 1.1 million to 500K last holiday season, not the gap going from 1.1M in October to currently 800K. But hey, do go on with your ad hominems because you haven't really counterargued my main point.

Glad to see that you don't deny that you're Microsoft Chad and you even closed your comment with your trademark copout. Well, enjoy your limited time here.

Junior, 23 total posts, seven of them in this NPD thread. Similar posting style. I think you might be on to something.

Add Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke to the list of alts he has made, too.

 

[Lime_In_Da_Coconut]

Both SSO and COD AW were available for November and for the latter, for December. SSO sold out the quickest, but regardless, it played some role in November. Most of the GTAV bundle's sales came from Black Friday. It was available after BF, but in very miniscule amounts.

And you have had a extensive history of making accusations and baseless posts, Microsoft Chad/Doctor Professional/Herman Cain/TheGrimReaper. You're not fooling anyone.

Who is this MS Chad everyone keeps talking about?

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Nope, doesn't really matter. ~800k-1mm platform difference isn't really going to impact much. Software sales are robust on both, there's not a significant enough difference to make a market impact for big software developers.

Just comes down to whose writing the bigger checks haha

The U.S. is the only market that matters when it comes to making deals?

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Who is this MS Chad everyone keeps talking about?

MS Chad was a junior who primarily posted in NPD threads and often, his comments were argumentatively flawed. Regardless, he would remain obstinate despite other users with better understanding of the market saying otherwise. He got permabanned, but that was not the end of him, not by a long shot. He has made a lot of alt accounts. Here are some that I remember:

- Herman Cain
- Doctor Professional
- The Grim Reaper
- Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke
- And currently, SayBooSayDo-SayBooSayWho

 

[Intrigue]

The U.S. is the only market that matters when it comes to making deals?

US is only about 35% of Sony sales. So no it doesn't. People seem to think US is the only market in fact it is the biggest single market. But it is still much less than half of the world.

 

[Steroyd]

how is it a mindset? I'm simply stating that MS appears to have a stronger software lineup this holiday than last, and Sony has a relatively weaker one. The result could be MS outselling Sony by more during Oct/Nov than they did last year. It is a statement/estimate, not a mindset?

Maybe mindset was the wrong word but you and others have been commonly guestimating the same thing, we don't know the level of influence the software will have because ontop of MS having the "stronger" line-up last holiday they also went kamikazee' on their wallets to make it happen so it's hard to judge and even if MS went insane again this holiday, Sony is in a more sensible position to price cut in kind without effecting their bottom line.

 

[allan-bh]

Not worth Cream's time to track a segment that's moving quickly towards market obscurity.

Yeah, no one talks about handhelds sales anymore, I like knowing for not lose track of LTD and because 3DS is part of predictions.

 

[zero shift]

Thank you for this post, it makes me feel appreciated for what I do for GAF, thanks Liabe Brave =)
BTW Terry Travis is not my name, this is a borrowed account from a friend (my previous accounts kept getting banned...can a mod change my name?).

July TOP15 NPD

JULY 09:
Wii sells a quarter million. Wii Sports, the bundled title that largely sold the Wii to everyone including your grandmom gets its sequel, and probably to no ones surprise sells half a million in its opening week.
Finally something that can top NCAA a title that is No.1 every July (now if only the same could be done for Madden), A single NCAA SKU was number 1 the past SIX Julys straight (back to 2002)!
Wii, 360 monthly gap narrows to just 50k on the increasing strength of the 360 and Americans running out of households (and retirement centers) to put Wiis in, has Wii saturation begun?

JULY 04:
Sega Sports and the 2K series becomes Take Two's ESPN series this year and to assure its success in the post-Sega console age, the said titles are released at $20; will ESPN become a formidable opponent to EA's domination? Launching one month ahead of the beast known as Madden, can ESPN NFL stop it or will it be a repeat of the once neck-and-neck Sega Sports vs. EA war?
Tales goes mainstream! Err well among gamers, Symphonia outsells every previous Tales release in its first month!
GC pushes 93,000, XB continues its best year with 175,000. GC LTD is 7.5m to XB's 8.9m. PS2 continues to be the monster that it is with 305,000 sold for the month breaching 23m LTD.

JULY 99:
After debuting with 25,000, Driver explodes in its first full month to top the charts. The first Pokémon console title debuts on N64 with Pokémon Snap. By comparison Pokémon Red & Blue sold an estimated 430,000 this SAME month, nearing 4m since its launch just last September (...and it was only the beginning...). Final Fantasy VII became a Greatest Hits this month as FFVIII is but two months away and Star Ocean doing decently in its second month being a new IP.
PSX sold 170,000 to N64's 120,000.

JULY 94:
SUPER Street Fighter debuts!! Could MK fever have dampened some of the SF love? Nintendo sports > Sega sports this month, that says something. Last month 3D arcade graphics debuted with Virtua Racing (selling 15,000), this month Nintendo fires back with an FX title, Stunt Race, which made its debut (to mixed reviews). Also this month the tide turns back in favor of NCL on the hardware front, oh and Streets of Rage 3 debuts hardly noticed at #26 (with 11,000 sold) :/
SNES sold 120,000 GEN 110,000.

JUN '15 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=172408675&postcount=1863
MAY '15 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=167802939&highlight=#post167802939
APR '15: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2484
MAR '15: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=3799
XMAS report '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2394
SEP '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=5568
AUG '14: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...postcount=2855

This is very interesting. Really shows how much the market has grown.

 

[Liabe Brave]

People, even me, were not only surprised by the Xbox One win, but looking back earlier in the year, expected sony to reach the old gap earlier, that's not happening.

Last year at this time, the gap was ~550,000. This year, it is over 800,000. We don't know how it will evolve in the future, but right now Sony's lead is bigger than last year, not smaller.

 

[allan-bh]

Last year at this time, the gap was ~550,000. This year, it is over 800,000. We don't know how it will evolve in the future, but right now Sony's lead is bigger than last year, not smaller.

Yes, but if we look at 2015 YTD against 2014 YTD, I believe the gap is smaller (Don't have the numbers in front of me right now so maybe i'm wrong).

 

[mrklaw]

Maybe mindset was the wrong word but you and others have been commonly guestimating the same thing, we don't know the level of influence the software will have because ontop of MS having the "stronger" line-up last holiday they also went kamikazee' on their wallets to make it happen so it's hard to judge and even if MS went insane again this holiday, Sony is in a more sensible position to price cut in kind without effecting their bottom line.

You're right, I should have pointed out 'if MS throws everything and the kitchen sink into promos' as a caveat. But likewise you can't assume Sony will respond necessarily. they didn't last year

 

[Vlodril]

i feel i am stating the obvious but the gap widening in a smaller pace does not equal the gap closing.

As far as the holidays go i don't think we can judge yet with any certainty since we have no idea what the two companies will do yet.

 

[slavesnyder]

i feel i am stating the obvious but the gap widening in a smaller pace does not equal the gap closing.

Sadly, this is not obvious to everyone.
Maybe it's too abstract.
Try something with apples.

 

[Deleted member 47027]

Last year at this time, the gap was ~550,000. This year, it is over 800,000. We don't know how it will evolve in the future, but right now Sony's lead is bigger than last year, not smaller.

It was 725k last year

 

[Steroyd]

You're right, I should have pointed out 'if MS throws everything and the kitchen sink into promos' as a caveat. But likewise you can't assume Sony will respond necessarily. they didn't last year

They didn't respond much last year because the console hadn't even been out for a full year, and historically it's taken Sony longer than that for their first price cut, now we're in a weird time zone where Sony usually price cuts their console and they haven't yet, so they may ride on bundles and stuff till next year, or cut the price going into the holidays, either way I find it hard to see Sony not doing anything unlike last year because they have decent leeway now.

 

[ohImlaughin]

The gap is still there (800k).

The gap is still widening (30k, as of July).

You're basing a prediction on the second derivative of that gap. It's a lagging indicator, to say the least.

The holiday hasn't hit. Ms will take aug. Could take Oct Nov Dec clean sweep. 800k isn't insurmountable. Xbox hasn't had a big release all year.

 

[Y2Kev]

LOL

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

This is my favorite post of the thread so far

 

[Fat4all]

The holiday hasn't hit. Ms will take aug. Could take Oct Nov Dec clean sweep. 800k isn't insurmountable. Xbox hasn't had a big release all year.

Well, we already know most of Of Microsofts plans for Xbox this holiday, now we have to wait for a clear picture of Sonys plans.

 

[ohImlaughin]

Well, we already know most of Of Microsofts plans for Xbox this holiday, now we have to wait for a clear picture of Sonys plans.

They will drop the price. With that being said. Ms can still take sweep just not going to do 720k again. Ms by right should win. They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

 

[rokkerkory]

This fall will be so fantastic. A huge blood bath for both MS and Sony.

MS hitting hard with so many games and bundles while Sony hits back with potential price drops.

Fully expect MS to take holiday season again however. Halo 5 gonna do major damage.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

They will drop the price. With that being said. Ms can still take sweep just not going to do 720k again. Ms by right should win. They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

What does that even mean? We've yet to see how much/when Sony will cut the price of the PS4 and what games they will bundle the console with.

 

[Fat4all]

Ms by right should win.

 

[BadWolf]

They will drop the price. With that being said. Ms can still take sweep just not going to do 720k again. Ms by right should win. They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

lmao

 

[Glorified G]

They will drop the price. With that being said. Ms can still take sweep just not going to do 720k again. Ms by right should win. They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

Forgot to add ™ after this line bro.

 

[ohImlaughin]

What does that even mean? We've yet to see how much/when Sony will cut the price of the PS4 and what games they will bundle the console with.

They will drop the price. It's all funny till they do this oct. Mark it down.

 

[ohImlaughin]

Forgot to add ™ after this line bro.

Parents during holiday buy consoles. Bc will appeal to them. I guess truth is advertising? Oh k

 

[jayu26]

Good stuff.

It's all funny till they do this oct.

I guess truth is advertising? Oh k

I understand that English is not your first language but you will have to try to be clearer than that. Avoid pronouns if you can.

 

[Ray Down]

They will drop the price. With that being said. Ms can still take sweep just not going to do 720k again. Ms by right should win. They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Parents during holiday buy consoles. Bc will appeal to them. I guess truth is advertising? Oh k

Since when is the average parent informed enough to know something as specific as backwards compatibility? If anything, parents are more price/value conscious than worried about BC.

 

[slavesnyder]

(...)They have too much coming and customer friendly family friendly Backward compatibility will also help.

The thought is not so bad. But here, MS is between rock and hard place. To make this feature known and relevant for family dads, they have to push the message hard.
And when they do this I wonder what will happen when the first daddies realise that half of their 360 backlog is just not working. and they traded in the good old 360 console.
This might cause another PR backlash.

 

[Welfare]

Since when is the average parent informed enough to know something as specific as backwards compatibility? If anything, parents are more price/value conscious than worried about BC.

The Xbox One boxes in the holidays will probably have "Plays Xbox 360 games" on the front for all to see.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

The Xbox One boxes in the holidays will probably have "Plays Xbox 360 games" on the front for all to see.

That will probably work. However, not all 360 games will be playable on the XBO, meaning it will require some research.

 

[EdReedFan20]

The Xbox One boxes in the holidays will probably have "Plays Xbox 360 games" on the front for all to see.

Probably. Well, actually it'll either say "Plays Most XBOX 360 games" or "Plays XBOX 360 games*". In fine print, it'd probably say something along the lines of "Not all XBOX 360 games are compatible. All XBOX 360 Kinect games are not compatible". During their appearance on Giant Bomb's E3 After Show, Phil Spencer and Kudo Tsunoda said that 360 Kinect games would probably never work due to differences in camera technology. They also said multiple disc games were not currently compatible, but they did not rule them out completely.

 

[vin-buc]

MS Chad was a junior who primarily posted in NPD threads and often, his comments were argumentatively flawed. Regardless, he would remain obstinate despite other users with better understanding of the market saying otherwise. He got permabanned, but that was not the end of him, not by a long shot. He has made a lot of alt accounts. Here are some that I remember:

- Herman Cain
- Doctor Professional
- The Grim Reaper
- Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke
- And currently, SayBooSayDo-SayBooSayWho

Damn 5Twist - SayBoo got banned. That was some straight up exposure. Good job!!

 

[Stumpokapow]

i'm looking at the thread title and it seems to say NPD sales, so I sort of see one of two options:

a) people talk about NPD sales instead of meta-drama about people being re-registrations
or
b) i can just lock the thread

both are OK with me.

 

[blakep267]

Probably. Well, actually it'll either say "Plays Most XBOX 360 games" or "Plays XBOX 360 games*". In fine print, it'd probably say something along the lines of "Not all XBOX 360 games are compatible. All XBOX 360 Kinect games are not compatible". During their appearance on Giant Bomb's E3 After Show, Phil Spencer and Kudo Tsunoda said that 360 Kinect games would probably never work due to differences in camera technology. They also said multiple disc games were not currently compatible, but they did not rule them out completely.

I think ms would do well to Have flyers of compatible games in GameStop best buy etc. I mean GameStop employees bug me about everything else, they might as well tell me about BC.

 

[Deleted member 471617]

How many weeks are in the August NPD?

 

[Fat4all]

The Xbox One boxes in the holidays will probably have "Plays Xbox 360 games" on the front for all to see.

My bet is it will say "Plays Your Favorite Xbox 360 Games" on the box.

 

[truth411]

Imo, Sony barley wins August, blows M.S. away in September because MGSV, wait a sec.. is the MGSV bundle coming to the U.S.? Sony wins October (I don't think 5 days of Halo 5 will be enough for M.S. to win October). November and December goes to M.S. due to fire holiday sales/bundle/deals. The first half of 2016 will be a bloodbath for M.S. due to Sony's exclusives and morpheous. That's how I see it.