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NPD Sales for July 2015

Welfare

Member
Imo, Sony barley wins August, blows M.S. away in September because MGSV, wait a sec.. is the MGSV bundle coming to the U.S.? Sony wins October (I don't think 5 days of Halo 5 will be enough for M.S. to win October). November and December goes to M.S. due to fire holiday sales/bundle/deals. The first half of 2016 will be a bloodbath for M.S. due to Sony's exclusives and morpheous. That's how I see it.

Amazon and Gamestop don't list a MGS bundle at all.

Halo 5 will have 2 weeks technically with the console bundle being a week early.

It seems Gamestop has a special deal on the Madden bundle. It comes with the deluxe edition for no extra cost.
 
Imo, Sony barley wins August, blows M.S. away in September because MGSV, wait a sec.. is the MGSV bundle coming to the U.S.? Sony wins October (I don't think 5 days of Halo 5 will be enough for M.S. to win October). November and December goes to M.S. due to fire holiday sales/bundle/deals. The first half of 2016 will be a bloodbath for M.S. due to Sony's exclusives and morpheous. That's how I see it.

The MGSV bundle is not coming to the US, only the Destiny: TKK bundle.
 

truth411

Member
Amazon and Gamestop don't list a MGS bundle at all.

Halo 5 will have 2 weeks technically with the console bundle being a week early.

It seems Gamestop has a special deal on the Madden bundle. It comes with the deluxe edition for no extra cost.
Ok, big miss on Sony's part for no MGSV bundle for the U.S., but I still think MGSV will push PS4 consoles in September.
 
Call me crazy but I don't think MGSV is gonna do all that well in the US.

IDK could be off base there just doesn't seem to be much real world hype about it at all. Maybe big reviews / word of mouth will help it. Seems nothing like when MGS4 launched
 
Whilst August/September/November/December are all up in the air for various reasons, if MS can't win October with Halo 5 launching they should probably pack it up entirely
 

Welfare

Member
Call me crazy but I don't think MGSV is gonna do all that well in the US.

IDK could be off base there just doesn't seem to be much real world hype about it at all. Maybe big reviews / word of mouth will help it. Seems nothing like when MGS4 launched

Well the whole Konami issue surely isn't helping.

I think MGSV will do just fine in the US though. MGS4 did 775k in its launch month (June 2008 and that does not include bundles), and that was just on the PS3. MGSV is launching on PS4, PS3, XB1, and 360, will have an entire month of tracking and is launching in a bigger month of the year.
 
Well the whole Konami issue surely isn't helping.

I think MGSV will do just fine in the US though. MGS4 did 775k in its launch month (June 2008 and that does not include bundles), and that was just on the PS3. MGSV is launching on PS4, PS3, XB1, and 360, will have an entire month of tracking and is launching in a bigger month of the year.

Is the general market going to know about the Konami issues? I can't say I expect it to have much of an impact on sales.

I think it will be big and its a mistake not to bring the bundle over, seeing as they have it elsewhere.
 

Fat4all

Banned
Is the general market going to know about the Konami issues? I can't say I expect it to have much of an impact on sales.

I think it will be big and its a mistake not to bring the bundle over, seeing as they have it elsewhere.

If they had to choose between Taken King and MGSV bundles for the US for September, I think they probably picked right with Destiny.
 
Well the whole Konami issue surely isn't helping.

I think MGSV will do just fine in the US though. MGS4 did 775k in its launch month (June 2008 and that does not include bundles), and that was just on the PS3. MGSV is launching on PS4, PS3, XB1, and 360, will have an entire month of tracking and is launching in a bigger month of the year.

I dont see it doing anything near that honestly.

Could be wrong though of course
 

Welfare

Member
Is the general market going to know about the Konami issues? I can't say I expect it to have much of an impact on sales.

I wasn't saying that the Konami issues will affect sales, I was responding to your sentence about hype. That has hit the hype for some.
 

blakep267

Member
I dont see it doing anything near that honestly.

Could be wrong though of course

Maybe. its gonna get crushed by Madden, NBA 2k and fifa probably. but 700k is doesn't seem that bad. mad max will probably do much worse

Edit: now that I think about it, yeah idk if it will get to those numbers with the competition

Destiny, madden, Fifa, and nba 2k. I could see those being the top 4 in any specific order.
 

Fat4all

Banned
What are the market share percentages in US?

Hmm, if I read Zhuge's tweet correctly earlier, estimated sales are:

PS4: 8.5 mil
XBO: 7.8 mil
WiiU: 4.1 mil

Sony's current numbers are sold-through, dunno about the others.

I might be wrong, though. I don't save sales data personally.
 
I dunno, just by virtue of being MGS, I expect V to pull something around 600k just PS4/PS3. Especially since it's the final Kojima game.
 

watdaeff4

Member
I think it will be big and its a mistake not to bring the bundle over, seeing as they have it elsewhere.

I think they probably know that it won't sell as big as it will in Europe or as well TTK in USA so I think they made a pretty damn good decision IMO.

Esp since IMO it's very likely that there will be CoD and/or Battlefront bundles that will make them much more money in the US later on.

Again, JMO, but I bet they have enough market analysis to have a decent idea what they are doing and they have pretty much made (almost) every right decision this gen.
 

Salaadin

Member
How did Ground Zeroes do in its launch month? Was just wondering as it also had an air of negativity around it like TPP, though probably a much lesser extent.
 

RibMan

Member
Considering how well MGS4 did on PS3, and given the fact that a MGS5 bundle does exist, the absence of a North American bundle is intriguing. Demand for a new Metal Gear is high, and while Destiny will do its numbers, the history of MGS and the PlayStation brand is well-known -- a lot of PS3 owners would jump into current-gen thanks to a bundle.

I wonder what the business thinking was behind this decision.
 
TPP is finally the next mainline MGS game people have wanted since 2008. GZ was a cheaper shorter experience which may have put people off.

Given MGS has literally the entire month I think it will do well across 4 platforms (at retail) and will hit 1m, but it might not have good legs, depends how well received it is in general too. Maybe im expecting too much though
 
Maybe it'll be big idk. Just outside of the internet there seems to be no real world hype at all. No marketing, no buzz, etc. Seems like Konami is sending this out to die

But a big last second marketing push / solid reviews could change that of course. Just right now I'm thinking it does under MGS4 numbers. Hope I'm wrong though
 
How come playing X360 games is suddenly some huge deal in regards to sales? I understand why people on GAF are excited, but, hasn't like all research shown thus far concluded that a very small portion of users use their new consoles to play older games? B/C for X1 as part of package of other things, kinda like a total sum for momentum arguments, I can go with that, but just being able to go back and play Metal Gear Rising or Bioshock and Mass Effect games that I played years ago is going to make me pick a console over another?

Meh, I just don't see it. It's games you already played, today's entertainment consumption is very much a society that views it as disposable. Further, as sales and new announcements of HD remasters keep coming, it's obvious people will buy games over again for superior better looking versions of the same content. Really not being salty either, Sony announces PS1/PS2/PSP B/C tomorrow including disc and it gets two thumbs up for me, but realistically, how much am I going to use it? Even if software emulation spruces up the titles visually, there's just some games I'm done with, or rather play on a smaller screen like Vita or DS for nostalgia. I think, at the end of the day, the games do the talking, and there's a lot of good stuff for both consoles since the bulk of the most popular titles are third party.
 
One of the problems with MGSV is that there is no Solid Snake leading it. His leading games (1.2.4) have always been the best sellers and I feel like the casual fans who played metal gear are more invested in solid snakes story than big boss'

I know some friends who love metal gear who don't care about this game. But had MGSV been about old snake after the amazing (albeit long) ending of MGS4 then they would be on board! Now these gamers aren't very hardcore.

Quite a contrast to on here where the big boss MGS games are more liked and have people more invested in them
 

JaggedSac

Member
Hmm, if I read Zhuge's tweet correctly earlier, estimated sales are:

PS4: 8.5 mil
XBO: 7.8 mil
WiiU: 4.1 mil

Sony's current numbers are sold-through, dunno about the others.

I might be wrong, though. I don't save sales data personally.

Ōkami;175571343 said:
PS4 ~42%
XB1 ~38%
WIU ~20%

That's using their current LTD which I suspect is what you want.

PS4: 8.5m / 42%
XB1: 7.7m / 38%
WIU: 4.1m / 20%

Rounded to nearest 100k

Thanks everyone. Any graphs on that market share over time for the past couple years?
 

vin-buc

Member
How come playing X360 games is suddenly some huge deal in regards to sales? I understand why people on GAF are excited, but, hasn't like all research shown thus far concluded that a very small portion of users use their new consoles to play older games? B/C for X1 as part of package of other things, kinda like a total sum for momentum arguments, I can go with that, but just being able to go back and play Metal Gear Rising or Bioshock and Mass Effect games that I played years ago is going to make me pick a console over another?

Meh, I just don't see it. It's games you already played, today's entertainment consumption is very much a society that views it as disposable. Further, as sales and new announcements of HD remasters keep coming, it's obvious people will buy games over again for superior better looking versions of the same content. Really not being salty either, Sony announces PS1/PS2/PSP B/C tomorrow including disc and it gets two thumbs up for me, but realistically, how much am I going to use it? Even if software emulation spruces up the titles visually, there's just some games I'm done with, or rather play on a smaller screen like Vita or DS for nostalgia. I think, at the end of the day, the games do the talking, and there's a lot of good stuff for both consoles since the bulk of the most popular titles are third party.

It's an upgrade path for 360 gamers. Sony's research show a big percentage of current PS4 actually migrated from the 360. Having BC gives the gamers who haven't upgraded yet a reason to stay with Xbox - that's the goal, at least. Microsoft are trying to keep those gamers with them and not have them switch sides. They should take this seriously - and offer an upgrade program for Q4 like they did the GS trade up offer (and won the months' NPD). Between BC and all the core franchises releasing they have a good competitive angle this holiday and honestly - they don't need to have any firesales.
 
How come playing X360 games is suddenly some huge deal in regards to sales? I understand why people on GAF are excited, but, hasn't like all research shown thus far concluded that a very small portion of users use their new consoles to play older games? B/C for X1 as part of package of other things, kinda like a total sum for momentum arguments, I can go with that, but just being able to go back and play Metal Gear Rising or Bioshock and Mass Effect games that I played years ago is going to make me pick a console over another?

Meh, I just don't see it. It's games you already played, today's entertainment consumption is very much a society that views it as disposable. Further, as sales and new announcements of HD remasters keep coming, it's obvious people will buy games over again for superior better looking versions of the same content. Really not being salty either, Sony announces PS1/PS2/PSP B/C tomorrow including disc and it gets two thumbs up for me, but realistically, how much am I going to use it? Even if software emulation spruces up the titles visually, there's just some games I'm done with, or rather play on a smaller screen like Vita or DS for nostalgia. I think, at the end of the day, the games do the talking, and there's a lot of good stuff for both consoles since the bulk of the most popular titles are third party.

Backwards compatibility isn't a big deal at all in terms of actual use. You can look at PS3 sales as an example. Full bc out of the box, cut later, few cared. Even with the 360, I Remember one of the guys saying they hit quota, and that was fine for the majority.

All the talk about bc is completely overblown. People buying consoles are looking at value, new games and friends to play with.

Cod and Battlefront will matter more than anything else this year. Madden and NBA will do their normal 5-7M plus digital, but bundles for those two games will blow anything else away, especially if theres a special Star Wars console.
 

thuway

Member
The holiday hasn't hit. Ms will take aug. Could take Oct Nov Dec clean sweep. 800k isn't insurmountable. Xbox hasn't had a big release all year.

Do you seriously believe Sony has not taken wind of what Microsoft did last year? Do you think Sony will sit on their laurels and do nothing while Microsoft price cuts, bundles, and becomes Holiday focused. I'm not saying Xbox One will do poor this holiday, but to prematurely assume Microsoft will overtake the entire Oct-Dec season based on last year's scorched pricing policy is short sighted.

You should expect both companies to be very agressive. The market is already proving PS4 will outsell Xbox One at a 50 dollar markup.
 
Yes, but if we look at 2015 YTD against 2014 YTD, I believe the gap is smaller (Don't have the numbers in front of me right now so maybe i'm wrong).
You're definitely right. Most of the present gap is carryover from last year; Sony have had a much harder time extending their lead against a cheaper Xbox One than they did in 2014 against a more expensive or on-par One. (Though they've extended it some anyway.)

The context was about Microsoft's ability to catch up this holiday, and my point was they're facing a bigger task this year than last. That's true right now no matter the source of the gap.

It was 725k last year
You're correct, I was looking at beginning of July 2014 rather than end of July. So the gap in 2015 is only a little higher, rather than a lot higher. That reduces the potency of my point.
 

freefornow

Member
Do you seriously believe Sony has not taken wind of what Microsoft did last year? Do you think Sony will sit on their laurels and do nothing while Microsoft price cuts, bundles, and becomes Holiday focused. I'm not saying Xbox One will do poor this holiday, but to prematurely assume Microsoft will overtake the entire Oct-Dec season based on last year's scorched pricing policy is short sighted.

You should expect both companies to be very agressive. The market is already proving PS4 will outsell Xbox One at a 50 dollar markup.

Yes, so why would Sony be "aggressive" when they can sit back, rake in the money, have their lead in NA cut back slightly (while world wide it continues to go gangbusters) and then watch as the sales gap widens again until fall 2016?
 
Yes, so why would Sony be "aggressive" when they can sit back, rake in the money, have their lead in NA cut back slightly (while world wide it continues to go gangbusters) and then watch as the sales gap widens again until fall 2016?

  • Decisively winning has marketing value that will help Sony sell more PS4s which in turn means more PS+ memberships and game royalties.
  • Sony is trying to sell Project Morpheus next year and the more people who own a PS4 at that time, the more they will sell
  • The PS2 had a $100 price cut at ~19 months and the PS3 had a $100 price cut at ~5 months. It's been 21 months since the PS4 was released with no price cut yet. While the PS3 cut was a desperation move, the PS2 cut shows that the PS4 is due for a price reduction.
 

RexNovis

Banned
My bet is it will say "Plays Your Favorite Xbox 360 Games" on the box.

Nah if anything it will be a "Plays Select Xbox 360 titles" with a subtext listing an Internet address for the entire compatibility list saying "Check to see if your games are compatible" in fine print.

That's if they do it at all which grandly I'm a but doubtful of as it has the potential to backfire on them PR wise when people realize they can't play all their games no matter how clear they make it. They'll probably just stick to TV and 360 dash adverts.
 

watdaeff4

Member
  • Decisively winning has marketing value that will help Sony sell more PS4s which in turn means more PS+ memberships and game royalties. Worldwide they are decisively winning. While maintaining a lead in the US is important to them, profit is huge for them right now and I think they know they have more to offer this year in the Holidays than last. They will still maintain their lead without a price cut
  • Sony is trying to sell Project Morpheus next year and the more people who own a PS4 at that time, the more they will sell
  • The PS2 had a $100 price cut at ~19 months and the PS3 had a $100 price cut at ~5 months. It's been 21 months since the PS4 was released with no price cut yet. While the PS3 cut was a desperation move, the PS2 cut shows that the PS4 is due for a proce reduction. Past trends means nothing. The PS3 was $600. Their strategy during the PS2 era was to get into as many homes as possible and make money back off royalties. They have even stated they do not take that approach anymore

Morpheus is a good point however, but they may be gambling that they are still going to sell a boatload during the holidays with bundles at the $399 price. Then come Feb as Morpheus launch is looming, they can drop the price then. This way they maximize their profits, which IMO would be a good idea as while their financial situation isn't as bad as a few years ago, they could still use the profit to keep up their current financial momentum.

Also, I'm just spit-balling here.......but the thought of dropping the price to $299 is to attract the more budget-conscious buyers during the holidays. Most of these new buyers that they would attract at that price are not the demographic that will turn around and shell out a few more hundred in 6-9 months for Morpheus. (IIRC isn't next Spring/Summer the est. Launch Date for it?)

Most think a price drop is happening and it probably is, I'm just not as sure, esp after Gopher's comment.
 
MS should use BC as selling point for games, more than for console itself. Deals where you get older game from series with new one are very good deals. Like with just cause 3 you get 2 also and with Fallout 4 you get 3 also.
 

Asd202

Member
MS should use BC as selling point for games, more than for console itself. Deals where you get older game from series with new one are very good deals. Like with just cause 3 you get 2 also and with Fallout 4 you get 3 also.

I personally don't see people buying new games to get old games bundled. BC is a nice thing to have but it importance is vastly overrated because people buy new consoles to play new games not old ones.
 

watdaeff4

Member
MS should use BC as selling point for games, more than for console itself. Deals where you get older game from series with new one are very good deals. Like with just cause 3 you get 2 also and with Fallout 4 you get 3 also.

I think they are when they can. And it's working on me because I'm getting the XB versions for that very reason
 
Morpheus is a good point however, but they may be gambling that they are still going to sell a boatload during the holidays with bundles at the $399 price. Then come Feb as Morpheus launch is looming, they can drop the price then. This way they maximize their profits, which IMO would be a good idea as while their financial situation isn't as bad as a few years ago, they could still use the profit to keep up their current financial momentum.

Also, I'm just spit-balling here.......but the thought of dropping the price to $299 is to attract the more budget-conscious buyers during the holidays. Most of these new buyers that they would attract at that price are not the demographic that will turn around and shell out a few more hundred in 6-9 months for Morpheus. (IIRC isn't next Spring/Summer the est. Launch Date for it?)

Most think a price drop is happening and it probably is, I'm just not as sure, esp after Gopher's comment.

While I am pretty confident there will be a price cut, I've gone back a forth between if it would happen in the fall for the holidays or in the spring for Morpheus. I settled on later this year for a few reasons. First, most of the price cuts for the PS2 happened in the spring, but most of the cuts for the PS3 happened between Aug-Oct. Likewise the 360 price cuts also happened around the Aug-Oct. It looks like the industry has standardized on Aug-Oct for price cuts to stimulate holiday sales.

Second, with PS+ being required for online play, the increased likelihood of digitally bought games, and the upcoming release of Morpheus, Sony can make more money off of each PS4 sold than it could off of each PS3. That gives them an incentive to favor sales over immediate profit.

Third, Morpheus will sell better to people who already own a PS4 because it avoids the huge sticker shock of having to buy the console and VR at the same time. While a budget comsumer might not turn around and buy a Morpheus 6 months later, they are more likely to buy one a year to a year and a half later when Morpheus gets its own price cut and AAA games start showing up for it. If those people buy an XB1 due to its lower price this Christmas, it is highly unlikely that they will ever buy a Morpheus.

I think Morpheus is a big deal for Sony. If it takes off then every game that comes out for it will be a PS4 console exclusive. For that to happen Sony needs as many Morpheuses to sell as possible which in turn means they have to sell as many PS4s as possible before its launch.

However I have a cavet about Sony's VR console exclusivity. I think the XB1 will support Oculus in at least some limited way. Due to its limited GPU hardware the XB1 isn't going to want to go head to head with Sony over games, but it can get a Minecraft exclusive and offer up 3D pictures and video experiences. It could then leave the heavy hitting gaming to the PC side and keep it all in the Microsoft family.
 

On Demand

Banned
Nope, doesn't really matter. ~800k-1mm platform difference isn't really going to impact much. Software sales are robust on both, there's not a significant enough difference to make a market impact for big software developers.

Just comes down to whose writing the bigger checks haha

This doesn't make any sense. If what you say were true then MS would have just as many, if not more, 3rd party deals. The COD platform switch, from MLG to DLC, is pretty damn big. Those kinds of things don't happen from just looking at one market. World wide sales matter too. Where PS4 has a significant lead.

The U.S. is the only market that matters when it comes to making deals?

The over importance of U.S. market is pretty funny. I'm sure all companies look at total sales for hardware and software.
 
This doesn't make any sense. If what you say were true then MS would have just as many, if not more, 3rd party deals. The COD platform switch, from MLG to DLC, is pretty damn big. Those kinds of things don't happen from just looking at one market. World wide sales matter too. Where PS4 has a significant lead.

The over importance of U.S. market is pretty funny. I'm sure all companies look at total sales for hardware and software.

Except that there are plenty of regional marketing deals as well, in which case performance in regions is evaluated.

In any case, it's still about who is writing the bigger checks. And right now, that happens to be (generally) one mfg over the other.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Do you seriously believe Sony has not taken wind of what Microsoft did last year? Do you think Sony will sit on their laurels and do nothing while Microsoft price cuts, bundles, and becomes Holiday focused. I'm not saying Xbox One will do poor this holiday, but to prematurely assume Microsoft will overtake the entire Oct-Dec season based on last year's scorched pricing policy is short sighted.

You should expect both companies to be very agressive. The market is already proving PS4 will outsell Xbox One at a 50 dollar markup.

Do you think Sony had no idea what MS did last year? Even if they didn't know through internal channels, the advertising gave them some advance notice. And they did barely anything to compete. Either SCEA are way too slow to react, or they simply didn't have the flexibility to do aggressive or lengthy price cuts to counter MS. Like I said before, SCEE seemed able to go toe to toe with MS in the UK.

So regardless of whether Sony are prepared this time, they still need permission to do more than they did before. Which presumably means clearance from SCE in Japan.
 

On Demand

Banned
Except that there are plenty of regional marketing deals as well, in which case performance in regions is evaluated.

Then that near 1 million lead matters just as much then. Sony seems to have all the big 3rd party deals this year.

In any case, it's still about who is writing the bigger checks. And right now, that happens to be (generally) one mfg over the other.

And that has to be related to market share. I refuse to believe MS can't outspend Sony. Or maybe they can but they're being told no..........because of market share.
 
Do you think Sony had no idea what MS did last year? Even if they didn't know through internal channels, the advertising gave them some advance notice. And they did barely anything to compete. Either SCEA are way too slow to react, or they simply didn't have the flexibility to do aggressive or lengthy price cuts to counter MS. Like I said before, SCEE seemed able to go toe to toe with MS in the UK.

So regardless of whether Sony are prepared this time, they still need permission to do more than they did before. Which presumably means clearance from SCE in Japan.

I think, and I said so at the time, that Sony didn't have the inventory to make any deals last holiday season. The PS4 had been selling like gangbusters ever since it was released. That is especially true if you consider world sales. My guess is that if Sony had put the PS4 on sale, it would have sold out, greatly limiting the number of extra PS4s that could have been sold.

The XB1 on the other hand was a serious under performer. Microsoft was probably sitting on tons of stock and the sales were probably as much about selling that off as it was about gaining market share.

Admittedly that is all conjecture on my part. I would love for someone with more info to either refute or back up my statement.
 

Square2015

Member
Our Nintedno graph, extended another three months plus a few modifications:
*click*
HFuXBSe.png
 
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