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[Elios83]

Do you think Sony had no idea what MS did last year? Even if they didn't know through internal channels, the advertising gave them some advance notice. And they did barely anything to compete. Either SCEA are way too slow to react, or they simply didn't have the flexibility to do aggressive or lengthy price cuts to counter MS. Like I said before, SCEE seemed able to go toe to toe with MS in the UK.

So regardless of whether Sony are prepared this time, they still need permission to do more than they did before. Which presumably means clearance from SCE in Japan.

SCEA and SCEE are independent companies, they have goals to reach for the fiscal year in terms of profitability and sales which are set together with a global strategy and they choose what's best for them to reach those goals.
Japan only gives them the list of hardware SKUs available, they decide which to import with the price in yen and they set the price they want based on local currencies keeping in mind their goals, they make specific regional deals and bundles.
Last year SCEA simply didn't want to cut the price or respond aggressively, they didn't have to save their product like Microsoft had to do in the US. They lost a couple of months, they didn't care although they admitted that in November the gap was more than they expected it to be, in December they made more deals with retailers.
This year is different, it won't go like last year, a strategy is in place, price will go down for the first time, there will be very important and strategic bundles (COD, Star Wars). It will be a heated battle.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Then that near 1 million lead matters just as much then. Sony seems to have all the big 3rd party deals this year.

Because Sony has been more aggressive on making those deals recently.

And that has to be related to market share. I refuse to believe MS can't outspend Sony.

No... it's not because of market share. It's because of strategy. You have no idea why the CoD deal went to Sony. And claiming it's "market share" makes no sense regardless. Perhaps Sony offered more $. Maybe MS decided that investing that heavily in a declining franchise wasn't getting them the return they wanted. Perhaps MS wants to shift funds into other genres/areas. It's a gross oversimplification to just say "market share rulez" and think that's the reason everything in the business happens the way it does.

Or maybe they can but they're being told no..........because of market share.

Hold on... who would be telling MS leadership "no" on deals like this?

 

[Elios83]

Because Sony has been more aggressive on making those deals recently.



No... it's not because of market share. It's because of strategy. You have no idea why the CoD deal went to Sony. And claiming it's "market share" makes no sense regardless. Perhaps Sony offered more $. Maybe MS decided that investing that heavily in a declining franchise wasn't getting them the return they wanted. Perhaps MS wants to shift funds into other genres/areas. It's a gross oversimplification to just say "market share rulez" and think that's the reason everything in the business happens the way it does.



Hold on... who would be telling MS leadership "no" on deals like this?

Market share plays an important part in these things, it just can't be denied.
If a publisher has to restrict the audience of their game to a console that is not selling well they are going to ask for a LOT more money, they'll ask for different warranties and escape clauses. At that point you're playing in a hostile environment and as a platform holder you understand that that you're spending your money in the wrong way because the return won't be worth the investement. Having money doesn't mean wasting it.
The opposite is true for a market leader, everyone wants to make deals with you, everyone wants to have their piece of cake. It's sufficient to lend your hand and it's deal done. It's the nature of the market.

 

[Obliterator]

You don't think it could do MGS4 numbers across four platforms?

That was over 750k so maybe not. Idk early buzz for a MGS mainline title feels tiny. There is no advertising anywhere and I just don't hear anyone in "real life" talk about it.

Not impossible, who knows maybe it does a mil but as of now I'm thinking it does under MGS4. Maybe like 600k or something along those lines.

That said September NPD is 5 weeks which will help it. Also launches on September 1st so has the whole month to sell.

Idk I could see it going wither way. If they do a last minute marketing push and it reviews well that will help a lot

Edit: Arkham Knight NPD was what 1.1 million? MGS will be well under that.

Or was AK 1.3? Cant remember now. Either way MGS will do less than Batman so 1 mill is the absolute best it could do imo if everything goes great for it

 

[SupperCrunch]

Market share plays an important part in these things, it just can't be denied.
If a publisher has to restrict the audience of their game to a console that is not selling well they are going to ask for a LOT more money, they'll ask for different warranties and escape clauses. At that point you're playing in a hostile environment and as a platform holder you understand that that you're spending your money in the wrong way because the return won't be worth the investement. Having money doesn't mean wasting it.
The opposite is true for a market leader, everyone wants to make deals with you, everyone wants to have their piece of cake. It's sufficient to lend your hand and it's deal done. It's the nature of the market.

What you're saying may be true in the context of 3rd party exclusives, but I agree with Queso in that I don't think that market share plays the biggest role in whether Xbox or PS gets a marketing deal with a company. With marketing deals, it's not like the developer is restricting it's audience to one platform; rather, it is emphasizing it's game on one platform over another. We don't even have meaningful evidence of marketing deals affecting software sales!

Focusing on this holiday, Sony has stated it is emphasizing 3rd party relations whereas MS is touting it's 1st party franchises. These are 2 different strategies that are not solely influenced by marketshare.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Market share plays an important part in these things, it just can't be denied.

It's one of a myriad number of factors that are considered.

But to say it's the only thing that matters is gross oversimplification.

The size of the check is always going to get more consideration, weighed against all the other market factors that come into play.

But whatever, everyone can speculate all they want. I'm just calling it speculation (because that's what it is).

 

[Deleted member 471617]

4. March, June, September, and December are the 5 week months.

Cool. Thanks.

 

[Steroyd]

Do you think Sony had no idea what MS did last year? Even if they didn't know through internal channels, the advertising gave them some advance notice. And they did barely anything to compete. Either SCEA are way too slow to react, or they simply didn't have the flexibility to do aggressive or lengthy price cuts to counter MS. Like I said before, SCEE seemed able to go toe to toe with MS in the UK.

So regardless of whether Sony are prepared this time, they still need permission to do more than they did before. Which presumably means clearance from SCE in Japan.

The UK can be explained in that we pay more just based off exchange rate, so there was probably room for maneuver.

Market share plays an important part in these things, it just can't be denied.
If a publisher has to restrict the audience of their game to a console that is not selling well they are going to ask for a LOT more money, they'll ask for different warranties and escape clauses. At that point you're playing in a hostile environment and as a platform holder you understand that that you're spending your money in the wrong way because the return won't be worth the investement. Having money doesn't mean wasting it.
The opposite is true for a market leader, everyone wants to make deals with you, everyone wants to have their piece of cake. It's sufficient to lend your hand and it's deal done. It's the nature of the market.

When it comes to marketing deals not so much, Sony had marketing deals with Assassin's Creed, Battlefield and Batman when they were behind on the numbers game, 3rd party exclusives are a different kettle of fish and I would just love to know how much MS paid passion for Rise of Tomb Raider.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

With Sony's recent financial report, does anyone expect a price drop for PS4 this year?

Given that they're already more expensive than the competition, and still manage to outsell them, I think Sony is going to be pretty complacent this fall -- not really caring if Microsoft wins the last few months and keeping the price at $399 with software bundle deals.

With the strong dollar, I think they're going to try and maintain profitability as much as possible.

I suspect they'll drop the price for fall of $2016 and will go straight to $299.

 

[Deleted member 471617]

Here's what I think Sony should do for the next year -

- No price cuts whatsoever. Instead, release two themed console bundles and one exclusives console bundle at $400. I detailed this in post #608.

- Release an Uncharted 4 themed console bundle next March for $400. This will easily sell. As a bonus, they can throw in the Uncharted Collection as well. Four games on disc with the themed console for $400 is an excellent deal. Also, make the hard drive 1TB.

- At E3 2016, announce a price cut for PS4 to $300. Skip the $350 price tag completely. Announce the release date and pricing for Morpheus. I know that people think that they will release it early 2016 but to me, that's a huge mistake. Use E3 to showcase the games for it and make sure that the games being released along side it are worth buying Morpheus for. Announce a September 2016 release date and a $200 price. Anything higher than $200 is going to turn off people. More than $300, it will be dead on arrival. Peripherals have never done good and unless Morpheus launches at a very competitive and cheap price, it will follow the same fate as those before it. Main thing is that there has to be some good or better games for it at launch. Otherwise, what's the point in buying it?

This is what I think Sony should do. It doesn't matter if Microsoft wins this coming holiday season because Sony would just gain majority of it back after Uncharted 4 and SFV get released.

Last November and December, Xbox One outsold PS4 by 634k. Between January 2015 and July 2015, PS4 has outsold Xbox One by 306k. Difference of 331k. While I think that August will go to Xbox One, September will easily belong to PS4. MGSV and the Destiny bundle will sell the console. October will probably go to Xbox One and while I thought that November and December would go to Xbox One, seeing as how COD gets released in November (I thought it was October) and Battlefront two weeks later, if Sony releases console bundles with those two games, they will win.

Only bundle Microsoft has for the holidays is the Halo 5 bundle and it's $500. Sorry but that's insane. Going up $100??? Hell no.

The timed exclusive Tomb Raider is going to bomb sales wise simply because it's seen more as a "PlayStation" franchise than it is Xbox.

When you truly look at it, Microsoft cuts into the lead during the holidays but gives back 2/3 throughout the following year so they're not gaining as much as you would think they are.

The truly funny part is that this is with Sony having -

- No price cuts
- No insane deals and bundles
- No AAA first party exclusives this coming holiday season

Seriously, Sony hasn't been aggressive at all and they don't need to be right now. Sony is better off waiting until next March and then E3 to be aggressive. If 2016 sees Uncharted 4, SFV, R&C, Horizon and Last Guardian come out, that will be the perfect time to start being aggressive.

Whatever sales gap Xbox One closes this year, Sony will only get back the majority of it next year so for right now, Sony can just sit back and relax in my opinion.

 

[On Demand]

Because Sony has been more aggressive on making those deals recently.



No... it's not because of market share. It's because of strategy. You have no idea why the CoD deal went to Sony. And claiming it's "market share" makes no sense regardless. Perhaps Sony offered more $. Maybe MS decided that investing that heavily in a declining franchise wasn't getting them the return they wanted. Perhaps MS wants to shift funds into other genres/areas. It's a gross oversimplification to just say "market share rulez" and think that's the reason everything in the business happens the way it does.

Well yeah i'm sure there's many reasons that make the final decision, but lets not pretend console sales don't matter and is not a big factor in those decisions. I mean it's pretty easy to come to that conclusion seeing how last generation MS had all the marketing deals and exclusive DLC, and now it's Sony that has those advantages. I wouldn't be surprised if that's a big reason for COD's new partnerships with PS4. Why would MS give that up by choice? It's been working for them for almost 10 years.

Jim Ryan pretty much says sales matter-

PlayStation Europe boss Jim Ryan explained to GameSpot why Sony is managing to get these partnerships, when it seemed to be so difficult in the previous generation:

I think a few things have changed. It certainly makes discussions with publishers easier when you have a significant installed base, and one that is fast growing, and one that is noticeably further ahead than the competition. I wouldn’t say we have become the industry’s default option, because there are other factors come into play, such as amouts of cash. But I would say we’re starting to become the first thing a publisher thinks about when they consider partnerships.

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...her-thinks-considering-partnerships/#/slide/1

Yes it's not the only reason as he says, but because of PS4's sales lead they can easily get them than MS.

Hold on... who would be telling MS leadership "no" on deals like this?

Ones that don't want to limit their audience and sell to the biggest one?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

When it comes to marketing deals not so much, Sony had marketing deals with Assassin's Creed, Battlefield and Batman when they were behind on the numbers game, 3rd party exclusives are a different kettle of fish and I would just love to know how much MS paid passion for Rise of Tomb Raider.

Sony was behind in USA only .
Not WW and as we know marketing deals are a WW thing .
Market share plays an important part along with other factors of course .

 

[EventHorizon]

What you're saying may be true in the context of 3rd party exclusives, but I agree with Queso in that I don't think that market share plays the biggest role in whether Xbox or PS gets a marketing deal with a company. With marketing deals, it's not like the developer is restricting it's audience to one platform; rather, it is emphasizing it's game on one platform over another. We don't even have meaningful evidence of marketing deals affecting software sales!

Focusing on this holiday, Sony has stated it is emphasizing 3rd party relations whereas MS is touting it's 1st party franchises. These are 2 different strategies that are not solely influenced by marketshare.

It doesn't matter as much for marketing deals but it still matters. Marketing dollars would be most effective if they were spent targting the platform with the biggest sales. Marketing obviously has an effect or else it wouldn't be done. Don't you think someone would have noticed by now if say having an exclusive Destiny marketing deal didn't affect software sales?

You are thinking about this from the perspective of someone who closely follows games. I'm pretty sure advertising has little effect on you, and you already have a list of the games you want to buy. Most people aren't like that which is why advertising works. If they see a game they might like, but it is advertised for a system they don't have, or don't plan to get, they will discount that ad. They could do so because they simply don't want to get excited about a game they aren't sure they can play, or they could be console fanboys fighting the good fight.

Either way targeting an ad towards a specific console has costs associated with it. The smaller that console's userbase, the higher the associated costs.

As for why Sony and Microsoft have their strategies, my theory is that Sony is throwing some of their resources at Morpheus and combined with some game delays left a whole in their exclusive schedule. That forced them to emphasize third party more. Microsoft on the other hand needs exclusives more than Sony as an additional excuse to buy the XB1. It seems that they only emphasized their exclusive strategy, along with reduced cost, relatively recently once it became evident that the XB1 was falling way behind the PS4. And yes, I think that reduced marketshare increased their costs to do third party deals to the point where they weren't worth it to them.

 

[Steroyd]

Sony was behind in USA only .
Not WW and as we know marketing deals are a WW thing .
Market share plays an important part along with other factors of course .

PS3 launched a year after Xbox 360 and Xbox 360 didn't sell 0 units in that timeframe.

 

[QaaQer]

With Sony's recent financial report, does anyone expect a price drop for PS4 this year?

Given that they're already more expensive than the competition, and still manage to outsell them, I think Sony is going to be pretty complacent this fall -- not really caring if Microsoft wins the last few months and keeping the price at $399 with software bundle deals.

With the strong dollar, I think they're going to try and maintain profitability as much as possible.

I suspect they'll drop the price for fall of $2016 and will go straight to $299.

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

 

[Steverulez]

With Sony's recent financial report, does anyone expect a price drop for PS4 this year?

Given that they're already more expensive than the competition, and still manage to outsell them, I think Sony is going to be pretty complacent this fall -- not really caring if Microsoft wins the last few months and keeping the price at $399 with software bundle deals.

With the strong dollar, I think they're going to try and maintain profitability as much as possible.

I suspect they'll drop the price for fall of $2016 and will go straight to $299.

I don't think complacency has anything to do with it. If they don't drop the price its because it is continuing to sell well and they are making a very healthy profit on it which is good for them.

If they drop, I think they will go to $349. We don't know what sort of production cost savings they've made in the last couple of years, and whilst they could be substantial, perhaps they would just rather have the extra money. $349 is also $100 less than their Destiny bundles were last year, which they priced at $449 iirc

They have an 800k lead in the US, even if MS have a great holiday I don't see them being overtaken and they will just go back to selling better over the course of the year and they have Uncharted 4 next year which be huge. A price-cut is coming at some point (obviously) but we'll see, they have a lot of big marketing deals (MGS, Destiny, COD, AC, Battlefront) which will help them this year if they don't cut

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

The bolded is completely subjective opinion, and probably out of tune for the current market reality. Further, Playstation is a global brand and I don't see it going away any time soon, nor do I see Nintendo managing to effectively compete in the same space by changing direction and releasing competitive hardware.

Only way I see Sony floundering next-gen is if they pull another PS3. Their "gamer focus" strategy for PS4 is paying off and I don't think they'll stray too far from it next-gen.

Which isn't to say that competitors can't also be successful, but I certainly don't anticipate some massive drop-off other than what may happen due to market forces surrounding the core industry they serve. And success for Nintendo will probably come out of left field as it always does, rather than a powerful console with large third party backing, which is more of Sony's territory (and unlikely to be eroded).

I don't think complacency has anything to do with it. If they don't drop the price its because it is continuing to sell well and they are making a very healthy profit on it which is good for them.

If they drop, I think they will go to $349. We don't know what sort of production cost savings they've made in the last couple of years, and whilst they could be substantial, perhaps they would just rather have the extra money. $349 is also $100 less than their Destiny bundles were last year, which they priced at $449 iirc

They have an 800k lead in the US, even if MS have a great holiday I don't see them being overtaken and they will just go back to selling better over the course of the year and they have Uncharted 4 next year which be huge. A price-cut is coming at some point (obviously) but we'll see, they have a lot of big marketing deals (MGS, Destiny, COD, AC, Battlefront) which will help them this year if they don't cut

Complacency in the sense that they can decide to not drop the price because sales are already strong, that's all I'm suggesting. Their financial report indicated that they were seeking profitability over volume, meaning that a price cut is unlikely. They could easily sell a ton more consoles with a price drop, but they're probably content with their current sales trajectory.

Not having key core exclusives this fall hurts their position for a price cut, too.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

Haha. Getting flashbacks to the forums before the ps4 and xbone reveals blew away all the predictions that MS would slaughter Sony and put them out of videogames for good.

 

[Liabe Brave]

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony.

If Microsoft were eager to loss lead, the Xbox One would've been cheaper at launch. And Nintendo had those IPs and fans during the N64 and GameCube generations too--when their tech was not a gen behind--and they still lost big to Sony.

Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

The subjective quality of Sony's efforts isn't germane to success. By sales Uncharted and Last of Us are bigger than anything Microsoft has besides Halo. Gran Turismo historically has been bigger still, and while I personally expect decline there, it's still a heavy hitter. And so on and so forth.

It's quite possible Sony could end up last next gen, but I don't think you've made any good arguments for it.

 

[e-gamer]

I don't see any price cut from sony before uncharted 4 but I can see another price cut from MS during UC4 launch...

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

For Sony to lose next gen, they need to make a new console that has a very pain-in-the-ass architecture. That's not going to happen as long as Cerny is in the driver's seat. Your entire comment is purely conjecture without providing any citations that support your conclusions.

 

[Swass]

I don't see any price cut from sony before uncharted 4 but I can see another price cut from MS during UC4 launch...

Not sure I agree, price cuts are usually used to spur sales and maintain moments.. also the same thing a flagship title is supposed to do.. no reason to do both at the same time.

For Sony to lose next gen, they need to make a new console that has a very pain-in-the-ass architecture. That's not going to happen as long as Cerny is in the driver's seat. Your entire comment is purely conjecture without providing any citations that support your conclusions.

Don't think it matters if Cerny is there or not, no reason to move away from the PC architecture and lose all the benefits it brings like cheap parts and backward compatibility. I imagine the PS5 is going to be their easiest and cheapest to design console yet probably just bumping the cpu, gpu, and memory specs and calling it a day.

 

[Jigorath]

I see that as their strategy as well. A real price drop won't happen until they can shift their apu to 16nm and they can actually make the console for less money, so 2016. Sony isn't interested in being in markets that they cannot be profitable in.

Looking forward 3.5 years:

So we have MS who is willing to sell at a loss and Nintendo which has the best IP and fanbase in gaming competing against Sony. Given Sony's shitastic IP and unwillingness to loss lead, I'm not betting on them for gen 9.

Microsoft historically has had no problem underwriting loss making divisions, so all they have to do is not make a stupid x1 again in order to have the most powerful yet no more expensive console. And because Nintendo has all that Nintendo IP, as long as they don't make a piece of 10 year old garbage, sony could easily be number 3 in 2019.

lol

 

[Cess007]

lol

I still love that poster that edited his post for "future wall of shame" xD

 

[Sangetsu-II]

So with PS4 Star Wars triple bundle being revealed today (LE, Disney Infinity and Standard Black) and including the deluxe edition with 4 classics SW games.

I think MS won't win this holiday and we haven't had the CoD bundle announced yet. I have never said this before but here goes "things will be interesting this holiday season".

 

[Loudninja]

There are 3 Star Wars Bundles.

2 SE and 1 standard.

 

[QaaQer]

The bolded is completely subjective opinion, and probably out of tune for the current market reality. Further, Playstation is a global brand and I don't see it going away any time soon, nor do I see Nintendo managing to effectively compete in the same space by changing direction and releasing competitive hardware.

Only way I see Sony floundering next-gen is if they pull another PS3. Their "gamer focus" strategy for PS4 is paying off and I don't think they'll stray too far from it next-gen.

Which isn't to say that competitors can't also be successful, but I certainly don't anticipate some massive drop-off other than what may happen due to market forces surrounding the core industry they serve. And success for Nintendo will probably come out of left field as it always does, rather than a powerful console with large third party backing, which is more of Sony's territory (and unlikely to be eroded).

What I mean wrt Ninty's IP and fanbase is that they have the most stalwart fans who will buy their products regardless. And they have the most hardware driving IP out of the three. I might be conflating handheld audiences with console audiences, however.

If Microsoft were eager to loss lead, the Xbox One would've been cheaper at launch. And Nintendo had those IPs and fans during the N64 and GameCube generations too--when their tech was not a gen behind--and they still lost big to Sony.


The subjective quality of Sony's efforts isn't germane to success. By sales Uncharted and Last of Us are bigger than anything Microsoft has besides Halo. Gran Turismo historically has been bigger still, and while I personally expect decline there, it's still a heavy hitter. And so on and so forth.

It's quite possible Sony could end up last next gen, but I don't think you've made any good arguments for it.

Probably right, as my 'prediction' is based more on intuition and personal taste than numbers. Still, looking at it from a bettor-at-the-racetrack perspective, I'd go M-N-S for win, place, show assuming no $100 gimmick on any of the boxes.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

So with PS4 Star Wars triple bundle being revealed today (LE, Disney Infinity and Standard Black) and including the deluxe edition with 4 classics SW games.

I think MS won't win this holiday and we haven't had the CoD bundle announced yet. I have never said this before but here goes "things will be interesting this holiday season".

Yep, MS is definitely not going to run away with a holiday victory so easily this time. If the XBO ends up outselling the PS4 again, it will not be by 600K. I can see this happening for the holiday season:

- Black Ops 3 limited edition bundle announced
- Star Wars bundles discounted for Black Friday
- Black Ops 3 & Uncharted Collection Black Friday bundle
- Tearaway Unfolded & Disney Infinity Black Friday family bundle

 

[Boombloxer]

What I mean wrt Ninty's IP and fanbase is that they have the most stalwart fans who will buy their products regardless. And they have the most hardware driving IP out of the three. I might be conflating handheld audiences with console audiences, however.



Probably right, as my 'prediction' is based more on intuition and personal taste than numbers. Still, looking at it from a bettor-at-the-racetrack perspective, I'd go M-N-S for win, place, show assuming no $100 gimmick on any of the boxes.

Probably not really suited for a sales thread. None of your post has anything to back it up, quite the opposite actually.

 

[RespectThySole]

The subjective quality of Sony's efforts isn't germane to success. By sales Uncharted and Last of Us are bigger than anything Microsoft has besides Halo. Gran Turismo historically has been bigger still, and while I personally expect decline there, it's still a heavy hitter. And so on and so forth.

Gears of War franchise has sold more than Uncharted & Last of Us. It has sold 22 million as of Jan. 2014 and Uncharted got to 21 million in June 2015. They're all in the same ballpark though for sure and The Last of Us has probably sold more than any individual Gears game with the PS4 remaster and bundling, but Gears 1 is getting a remaster and bundle as well later this month so it will probably end up being a wash basically.

 

[blakep267]

So with PS4 Star Wars triple bundle being revealed today (LE, Disney Infinity and Standard Black) and including the deluxe edition with 4 classics SW games.

I think MS won't win this holiday and we haven't had the CoD bundle announced yet. I have never said this before but here goes "things will be interesting this holiday season".

Price. It's all about price.

 

[EGM1966]

What I mean wrt Ninty's IP and fanbase is that they have the most stalwart fans who will buy their products regardless. And they have the most hardware driving IP out of the three. I might be conflating handheld audiences with console audiences, however.



Probably right, as my 'prediction' is based more on intuition and personal taste than numbers. Still, looking at it from a bettor-at-the-racetrack perspective, I'd go M-N-S for win, place, show assuming no $100 gimmick on any of the boxes.

The way I look at it is simple.

Sony have won 2 out of 4 gens easily (PS1 and PS2), floundered in one but leveraged their 1st party studios and worldwide brand to salvage the situation and look to be well on their way to another comfortable win this gen. Meaning if PS4 continues on track Sony will have taken 3 out of last 4 gens and looking at PS4 vs PS3 I feel they're going to remain focused on being a gaming console first and foremost.

Nintendo is all over the place as they risk creative ideas and new control methods. They've only one 1 out of last 4 gens and with their strategy there's no way to judge if they can do it again. They're a wild card likely to be more like Gamecube/Wii U but you never know they might just pull another "Wii".

Microsoft has spent a ton of money and to date has come way behind in one gen (Xbox) and close second in another and looks to be distant second this gen.

If you put personal preference aside it's pretty clear that Sony has highest probability of winning next gen as overall, whatever people think of them they've literally proven themselves to be far more consistent and reliable than anyone else.

MS should do okay but with their evolving and changing priorities I actually doubt they're going to sink a ton of money going forward into their console and taking a loss on hugely powerful console. They're going to position their console as just another option looks like and I doubt being number one matters as much as their designs across PC/Console and mobile devices with a unifying OS.

 

[Loudninja]

Price will most likely be $399 and $449 like the batman bundles.

Not sure about the walmart bundle.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Price. It's all about price.

If TTK Destiny Bundle is anything to go about (Game, Expansions, DLC) it will be $399 also.

Spoiler

$50 price cut coming if these LE consoles cost $399 in comparison with $449 LE Arkham bundle *wink wink*

 

[blakep267]

If TTK Destiny Bundle is anything to go about (Game, Expansions, DLC) it will be $399 also.

Spoiler

$50 price cut coming if these LE consoles cost $399 in comparison with $449 LE Arkham bundle *wink wink*

399 &449 is not good enough to " win" then. They'll still sell close to a mill NPD probably

 

[Loudninja]

399 &449 is not good enough to " win" then. They'll still sell close to a mill NPD probably

Seems good enough so far.

 

[Curufinwe]

Probably right, as my 'prediction' is based more on intuition and personal taste than numbers. Still, looking at it from a bettor-at-the-racetrack perspective, I'd go M-N-S for win, place, show assuming no $100 gimmick on any of the boxes.

So long as you know it's a personal fantasy with no basis in reality.

 

[blakep267]

Seems good enough so far.

You know I'm talking about Movember and December. Come on

 

[Sangetsu-II]

399 &449 is not good enough to " win" then. They'll still sell close to a mill NPD probably

Depends on what you mean by winning. A win for Sony is maintaining the gap and selling as you said 1 million. They don't have to win NPD to "win".

Point is MS is gonna have a hard time trying to close the gap like last year.

 

[Giriath_89]

399 &449 is not good enough to " win" then. They'll still sell close to a mill NPD probably

349$ standard bundles and 399$ LE bundles are most likely imo, if there is a price cut.

Maybe lower or with something extra on BF. Either way the PS4 should sell great, maybe even better than Xbox if Microsoft don't undercut Sony really a lot again.

 

[Steroyd]

Gears of War franchise has sold more than Uncharted & Last of Us. It has sold 22 million as of Jan. 2014 and Uncharted got to 21 million in June 2015. They're all in the same ballpark though for sure and The Last of Us has probably sold more than any individual Gears game with the PS4 remaster and bundling, but Gears 1 is getting a remaster and bundle as well later this month so it will probably end up being a wash basically.

I wouldn't compare the Gears remaster vs Last of Us remaster in the same light for one Gears has 3 other sequels after it and is banking on Nostalgia, Last of Us was basically a re-release from a game that launched a year prior and appeals more to those who missed out on it through not owning a PS3.

Granted Gears R could sell as much as the TLOUR but there's reason to believe that it might not have the same level of appeal.

 

[bombshell]

399 &449 is not good enough to " win" then. They'll still sell close to a mill NPD probably

Those would be the special edition bundle prices (note: the actual prices for the 2 special edition bundles have not been announced yet).

There's a standard edition bundle as well.

 

[GeoramA]

Sony's betting the house on Star Wars, holy shit. Combined with possible CoD bundles, Black Friday sales, and an aggressive MS, there's going to be a fuckton of PS4/XB1's sold in November.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Those would be the special edition bundle prices (note: the actual prices for the 2 special edition bundles have not been announced yet).

There's a standard edition bundle as well.

Forgot about that, a $350 Standard SW SKU that comes with the Deluxe Edition of Battlefront and 4 SW Classic games sounds like a sweet deal now that I think about it.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Gears of War franchise has sold more than Uncharted & Last of Us. It has sold 22 million as of Jan. 2014 and Uncharted got to 21 million in June 2015. They're all in the same ballpark though for sure and The Last of Us has probably sold more than any individual Gears game with the PS4 remaster and bundling, but Gears 1 is getting a remaster and bundle as well later this month so it will probably end up being a wash basically.

The Gears series has sold a little higher, but because it started as a major hit it's more frontloaded. Uncharted 1 sold several million less than Gears 1, meaning Uncharted 2 and Uncharted 3 sold more than Gears 2 and Gears 3.

If you like, I'm also willing to round off all particularities and group all these major successes together. My point was that Microsoft does not have a particularly stronger stable of hits than Sony. That's obviously true if Halo, Gears, Uncharted, Last of Us, and Gran Turismo are all on the same basic level.

 

[thefro]

For Sony to lose next gen, they need to make a new console that has a very pain-in-the-ass architecture. That's not going to happen as long as Cerny is in the driver's seat. Your entire comment is purely conjecture without providing any citations that support your conclusions.

Sony could make another great machine with the PS5 and still lose on specs/value for price point/third party support to the other two. We don't know until we see PS5, NX, and XB4.

Certainly they will be starting from the catbird's seat but the other companies moving up doesn't entirely depend on Sony screwing up.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

The Gears series has sold a little higher, but because it started as a major hit it's more frontloaded. Uncharted 1 sold several million less than Gears 1, meaning Uncharted 2 and Uncharted 3 sold more than Gears 2 and Gears 3.

If you like, I'm also willing to round off all particularities and group all these major successes together. My point was that Microsoft does not have a particularly stronger stable of hits than Sony. That's obviously true if Halo, Gears, Uncharted, Last of Us, and Gran Turismo are all on the same basic level.

Are we including the Vita title (Golden Abyss) because if we include that both franchises have sold the same no?

 

[allan-bh]

meaning Uncharted 2 and Uncharted 3 sold more than Gears 2 and Gears 3.

That's not necessarily the case.

 

[RespectThySole]

I wouldn't compare the Gears remaster vs Last of Us remaster in the same light for one Gears has 3 other sequels after it and is banking on Nostalgia, Last of Us was basically a re-release from a game that launched a year prior and appeals more to those who missed out on it through not owning a PS3.

Granted Gears R could sell as much as the TLOUR but there's reason to believe that it might not have the same level of appeal.

I understand why you would think that, but I don't think it's banking entirely on nostalgia. A lot of people didn't play the original Gears on 360 since it came out so early in its life cycle and in turn some didn't play any of the sequels either as a result(I've seen this quite a bit, even in the GAF community). It will also be bundled in with the cheapest XB1 sku. I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that this might be the first Gears for quite a few people. Yes some will be buying the same game they did on 360, but you could say the same thing for The Last of Us remaster as well.

 

[allan-bh]

Microsoft had a easy time last year because Sony did almost nothing, just a GTA V bundle for BF.

This year Sony will have better bundles and a possible price cut. With this I doubt MS can have a 600k+ victory again.

The good news is that PS4 and Xbox One should sell tons on holidays, will be a great time to buy one of them.