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[twinturbo2]

I'll be honest, and you guys can throw this quote back at me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Star Wars PS4 bundle will make that big of an impact. Look at the Batman PS4 bundle. Sony had that major advantage, yet Xbox One still sold almost 300K units in June.

And nothing else major of note released that month, aside from Batman.

Plus, Battlefront is not only multiplatform, but multiplayer only. That might turn off some gamers.

I give X1 the edge during the holidays for now. If the PS Experience wasn't in December, but earlier, that would be a wild card, but it's December, so I don't know about that.

 

[EGM1966]

I'm feeling that people may be overestimating Battlefront potential because of the movie.

Honestly I don't think the game will be so huge, but will sell well of course.

Battlefront is potentially a wild card due to the film and attendant media attention.

If Sony are lucky you're looking at a perfect storm of interest that sees the game and bundles sell hugely well. If not it could be sid but nothing spectacular.

It's hard to call as the film and marketing for the film will au into this.

A big halo effect ( not Halo the game but halo demand influencers) is not too much of a stretch and there seems to be s huge amount of goodwill breeding got the return of Luke, Han and Leia to Star Wars.

 

[Lemondish]

I'll be honest, and you guys can throw this quote back at me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Star Wars PS4 bundle will make that big of an impact. Look at the Batman PS4 bundle. Sony had that major advantage, yet Xbox One still sold almost 300K units in June.

And nothing else major of note released that month, aside from Batman.

Plus, Battlefront is not only multiplatform, but multiplayer only. That might turn off some gamers.

I give X1 the edge during the holidays for now. If the PS Experience wasn't in December, but earlier, that would be a wild card, but it's December, so I don't know about that.

TGS and the Paris show will be earlier, both of which will include big pressers. So, if you think PSX would have an impact, why do you feel they won't?

 

[Final Verdict]

Yeah, and even when Sony screw up, they still made a console that has now sold ~90m units which is still more than any manufacturer from any previous gen (by this I mean the PS3 as a failure still sold more units than the lead consoles from the 8 & 16-bit generations). MS will be lucky to get to 50m on the back of a similar screw-up, and Ninty isn't going to match the GCN this gen.

TLR - even when they screw up, just in terms of numbers Sony have at least matched their competition.

Completely agree with your last paragraph as well.

Phil Spencer is being disingenuous saying market share 'doesn't matter' - of course it matters. It isn't the only significant factor, or even the biggest, but to dismiss it out of hand is pretty tricksy. I mean seriously - were MS not in any way trumpeting their 2:1 lead in the US last gen when negotiating marketing partnerships? That's not the MS I've had to negotiate on behalf of (or indeed against!) in the past.

Correct.

And the reason for this is because Sony was coming off of a console that managed to sell 150M+, so if you look at it, their userbase shrunk by about 40%

If X1 sells 50m, it's user base will have shrunk by about 40% as well.

So when people talk about X1 making a PS3 like 'comeback' to selling relatively 'ok' I see that as accurate. The main difference is that PlayStation had a much higher ceiling to start with...


As far as Phil Spencer goes....marketshare only matters when you have something to Bragg about

 

[Javin98]

I'm feeling that people may be overestimating Battlefront potential because of the movie.

Honestly I don't think the game will be so huge, but will sell well of course.

On the other hand, I think some people are underestimating the Battlefront potential. Of course we'll only find out in November, but right now, Sony seems to be on the right track. They just announced Star Wars bundles which will sell incredibly well if priced well.

 

[QaaQer]

I'm feeling that people may be overestimating Battlefront potential because of the movie.

Honestly I don't think the game will be so huge, but will sell well of course.

What are people's predictions are for Battlefront vs BF4 and Hardline? EA is getting some serious mileage out of their battlefield tech.

 

[Boke1879]

I'll be honest, and you guys can throw this quote back at me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Star Wars PS4 bundle will make that big of an impact. Look at the Batman PS4 bundle. Sony had that major advantage, yet Xbox One still sold almost 300K units in June.

And nothing else major of note released that month, aside from Batman.

Plus, Battlefront is not only multiplatform, but multiplayer only. That might turn off some gamers.

I give X1 the edge during the holidays for now. If the PS Experience wasn't in December, but earlier, that would be a wild card, but it's December, so I don't know about that.

Eh. Destiny in it's launched month propelled the PS4 well past 500k. Batman did well for the PS4 in June and continued to do well for them in July.

Star Wars is probably the most well known IP in the world. Personally I think a COD bundle will make more of an impact but to say a Battlefront bundle won't make that big of an impact is kinda ehh....

By the time this bundle is released Star Wars marketing will be at full throttle and no doubt Sony will be pushing this bundle hard. I'm more than likely going to trade in my regular PS4 towards this seeing as it's the new model and I like the value in the box. Collectors will be all about this as well. I think it's going to be huge.

Sony really has a lot of options this holiday. They have marketing agreements with COD, AC, and Battlefront. The top 3rd party games being released. If they really wanted to add value to any of these they could easily bundle Batman or Bloodborne with any of these games.

 

[Chobel]

I'm feeling that people may be overestimating Battlefront potential because of the movie.

Honestly I don't think the game will be so huge, but will sell well of course.

EA forecasts the game will do 9-10 million by March 31st.

 

[allan-bh]

EA forecasts the game will do 9-10 million by March 31st.

Shipped?

 

[KHlover]

Battlefront game stands on a solid foundation of two very fondly remembered games and is the inofficial movie game simply by being released near the movie. If the game is any good it will sell VERY well, although it remains to be seen if it actually outsells FO4 in the long run.

 

[Chobel]

Shipped?

Probably.

 

[serversurfer]

You can seriously rely on John Harker knowing his stuff when it comes to videogame marketing. He's been in or around that business for years, and I can't recall ever seeing him push much of a personal agenda.

John knows his shit, but as he says himself, he chooses his words carefully. Given that he said this in response to someone calling out this post…

Destiny selling a lot more on Xbox One.
Despite the double digit millions Sony invested in the title.

Just throwing that stat out there for fun.
Console hardware sales don't always tell the full story for the industry as a whole.

Spoiler

Just talking about US for now

He even explained that he purposely threw out a red herring just because he didn't want people bashing the Bone. So it sounds like he was pushing the same narrative there as here; "size doesn't matter."

The people who leaked the CoD deal told us Activision took it to Sony because they were outselling MS 2:1. Now, for some reason, John and Queso have decided to team up to bury that assertion in Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt by helpfully explaining to everyone that myriad factors are actually at play here, and cash trumps all. Now, they're correct about the myriad factors, but apparently those factors resulted in Activision going to Sony. And they're right about money too; if MS had offered Activision $95 trillion, they probably would've been able to keep the rights. Could've been a bit more or less, but whatever the amount required, clearly MS didn't pay it. Therefore, one could argue that MS volunteered to give up the marketing rights for CoD and every other major third party game out there and instead rely on their huge stable of well-seasoned first-party teams.

But that would be a pretty terrible argument.

 

[allan-bh]

Probably.

Well, I can see that happen, but if EA is talking about sell through I doubt.

 

[On Demand]

Early on in the thread we had quote from Jim ryan saying market share does matter .
There other factors at play but i would think the 2 most important factors are market share and cash .
Everything else would be behind those two .

Yes that was my post-

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175633191&postcount=1162

Some still want to ignore that fact. Of course money is involved, but it's foolish to think the market share PS4 has doesn't play a large role in all these deals Sony is getting.

 

[Chobel]

Well, I can see that happen, but if EA is talking about sell through I doubt.

Subtract 1 million and you'll have your sold through (assuming the game doesn't suck)

 

[JoRo]

The marketing power of Disney and EA, the first new Star Wars movie in like 10 years, one of the most well-known franchises worldwide, and a game people have been clamoring for for many years. I bet my left nut this game will be absolutely huge. I believe people are underestimating the sales this will pull in. I remember The Force Unleashed selling really well, and it was a very mediocre game with no movie surrounding it. I don't know what kind of effect it will have on consoles, but I imagine it will only help the PS4 with a bundle. The game by itself, at the very least, will sell like crazy.

 

[Intrigue]

Yes that was my post-

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175633191&postcount=1162

Some still want to ignore that fact. Of course money is involved, but it's foolish to think the market share PS4 has doesn't play a large role in all these deals Sony is getting.

Also seems like people ignore that it is World Wide Market share, and just think US market share that matters in these decisions.

If you look at the whole picture its not just a 800k gap.

 

[Obliterator]

Black Ops 3, FO4, and Battlefront are all going to be enormous and it would be unwise to doubt the sales potential of any of them.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

will sony have enough stock to supply all that demand? it could be another GTA5 situation

 

[Boke1879]

will sony have enough stock to supply all that demand? it could be another GTA5 situation

I think Sony will announce a price in september for these bundles. It would wise of them to get preorders up ASAP though. I think this will be huge.

 

[Omnistalgic]

So you're betting against Sony not being successful NEXT gen or are you saying they're going to be losers by the end of this gen?

What? Where do you get this from? Nintendo's fanbase for home consoles are the people who've bought WiiUs this gen, bought about 20% of Wiis last gen, and bought the GCN in gen 6 - it's also a number that will likely have dwindled even further than the WiiU userbase by next gen unless the NX is something really special.

MS could build a better console than X1, but outside the US who will buy it? If Sony & MS release comparably specced NG consoles around 2018/19 what is going to motivate non-US buyers to go back to MS, especially if Morpheus has proven to be a success and the PS5 is built around it.

This is also the same argument that was presented at the start of this generation I might add.

Sony, about to go bankrupt, can not afford another PS3-like situation, will probably be number 3 because Wii2 is going to be crazy again.

MS, going to sell an amazing piece of powerful hardware for a good price, will continue being the 3rd party platform of choice and will be # 1 this gen.

yeah, NONE OF THAT is happening lol.

 

[allan-bh]

Someone please leak 3DS. It usually sells twice more than Wii U! Help me fill my spreadsheet.

Yeah, I want to know 3DS HW number too, would be the first miss since launch.

 

[Crazyorloco]

Why isn't minecraft on the wii u or 3ds? This seems like a no-brainer. Gosh.

 

[twinturbo2]

TGS and the Paris show will be earlier, both of which will include big pressers. So, if you think PSX would have an impact, why do you feel they won't?

IDK if either one will have a major megaton outside of maybe Gran Turismo 7... and MS could counter GT7 being revealed by saying "hey, Forza Motorsport 6 is out now and it's awesome". Most of the TGS stuff might stay in Japan, most of the Paris stuff might be indies I could play elsewhere. Then again, who knows?

 

[CLEEK]

John knows his shit, but as he says himself, he chooses his words carefully. Given that he said this in response to someone calling out this post…

RE: Destiny's sales.

I thought that Destiny sold most on PS4 when you include digital sales and bundles, but it was selling better at retail, e.g. NPD, on XB1. I'm sure Bungie to Activision clarified this a while after the game launched, but can't find an article/thread.

 

[stryke]

Why isn't minecraft on the wii u or 3ds? This seems like a no-brainer. Gosh.

I'm just taking a guess but there's probably a need for some sort of publishing agreement first with Nintendo. Microsoft and Sony publish Minecraft for their own respective platforms.

Or maybe Nintendo just wants to save it for NX.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

IDK if either one will have a major megaton outside of maybe Gran Turismo 7... and MS could counter GT7 being revealed by saying "hey, Forza Motorsport 6 is out now and it's awesome". Most of the TGS stuff might stay in Japan, most of the Paris stuff might be indies I could play elsewhere. Then again, who knows?

Not really. Forza has been lauded as being better than GT for a while now, but it certainly doesn't have nearly as much appeal for whatever reason. It being a yearly release now(Motorsport rotating with Horizon) also means there isn't much to anticipate.

 

[hodayathink]

RE: Destiny's sales.

I thought that Destiny sold most on PS4 when you include digital sales and bundles, but it was selling better at retail, e.g. NPD, on XB1. I'm sure Bungie to Activision clarified this a while after the game launched, but can't find an article/thread.

IIRC, if you included bundles on launch month it sold better on PS4. But there were months afterwards that it sold better on XB1. And Activision did officially say that there were more players on PS4, but I don't remember if that was a worldwide statement or specifically about the US, and it included digital numbers (which NPD doesn't track). I wouldn't be surprised if Destiny XB1 outsold Destiny PS4 at retail as of right now.

 

[serversurfer]

RE: Destiny's sales.

I thought that Destiny sold most on PS4 when you include digital sales and bundles, but it was selling better at retail, e.g. NPD, on XB1. I'm sure Bungie to Activision clarified this a while after the game launched, but can't find an article/thread.

Okay? I never said his claims weren't accurate; as he says, he chooses his words carefully. Destiny was indeed selling better on the Bone, but only if you look at a single market, and only if you don't count the bundled sales. IOW, he was cherry picking — which is inherently misleading — and admitted he did so purposefully, for the express purpose of keeping people from bashing the Bone, by trying to downplay the actual significance of the hardware disparity. It was the exact, same narrative he's pushing here; marketshare doesn't really matter, and XBox is just fine. However, in both cases, he's forced to distort the truth to make his point.

So as I said, John's a smart guy who knows his shit, but don't try to fool yourself in to thinking there's no agenda behind his posts.

 

[DustyVonEric]

I'm actually kind of concerned about GoW3 R's sales. Am I being irrational, Gaf?

I've really been holding out hope for a Demon's Souls HD Remaster. And I don't want Sony, for any reason, to think it wouldn't be worth it.

Maybe they'd look more at Dark Souls 2 SotFS PS4's sales. I don't remember how they look.

But I think there are hardcore Souls fans on PS4, some who didn't own a PS3 last gen, that would be all over a DeS HD Remaster (or better yet, a HD Remix).

 

[CosmicQueso]

Welfare was close enough.

I'm actually kind of concerned about GoW3 R's sales. Am I being irrational, Gaf?

Yes, in lots of ways too!

 

[DustyVonEric]

Welfare was close enough.



Yes, in lots of ways too!

Well, could you please explain?

 

[Loudninja]

I'm actually kind of concerned about GoW3 R's sales. Am I being irrational, Gaf?

I've really been holding out hope for a Demon's Souls HD Remaster. And I don't want Sony, for any reason, to think it wouldn't be worth it.

Maybe they'd look more at Dark Souls 2 SotFS PS4's sales. I don't remember how they look.

But I think there are hardcore Souls fans on PS4, some who didn't own a PS3 last gen, that would be all over a DeS HD Remaster (or better yet, a HD Remix).

Not sure what one has to do with the other really.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Well, could you please explain?

Not sure what one has to do with the other really.

That's the big one.

Certainly, if your desire is for Souls remasters, you shouldn't feel any emotional "concern" about the sales of a completely unrelated product in an unrelated genre on an unrelated platform.

 

[DustyVonEric]

That's the big one.

Certainly, if your desire is for Souls remasters, you shouldn't feel any emotional "concern" about the sales of a completely unrelated product in an unrelated genre on an unrelated platform.

Not sure what one has to do with the other really.

Hopefully, nothing.

I know something like Uncharted collection will sell. But I figured GoW3 would too, even with its lesser content.

I wouldn't want remasters to start to "flop" (I don't know how well GoW3 sold WW, but I think it debuted at <50k this NPD), so pubs begin to think they're not worth the time.

Again, I don't know how recent remasters have performed. But I figured GoW3 would be a shoe-in. Perhaps I figured wrong.

I just want remasters to perform well enough for my favorites to make it. DeS, Dragons Dogma, Infamous collection, and waaaay long shot.,,, Warhawk.

Edit:

Never mind. I see "emotional 'concern'" and now I must be making a warrior comment.

 

[Majmun]

Amazon hourly chart, I know.

But still...

November could become a massacre if Sony drops the price.

 

[allan-bh]

Welfare was close enough.

But the actual number is lower?

 

[Rolf NB]

Star Wars is probably the most well known IP in the world. Personally I think a COD bundle will make more of an impact but to say a Battlefront bundle won't make that big of an impact is kinda ehh....

CoD impact, as measured in hardware boost first week? Sure, likely bigger. But Battlefront is far more important. CoD is established. CoD will not grow the user base beyond pulling stragglers off last gen. The only thing it can do is sell a lot again.

Star Wars OTOH has the potential to attract an as-yet untapped mass market audience. And this time, they'll play with buttons and sticks.

The Batman comparisons miss the fact that that's been a nerdy comic book IP, later turned into a hilarious / stupid TV show for kids and again nerds, and that it's only managed to gain somewhat wider traction with the second Christopher Nolan movie. Star Wars is so much bigger, you'd want at least a couple adverbs to describe by how much.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

 

[Three]

That's the big one.

Certainly, if your desire is for Souls remasters, you shouldn't feel any emotional "concern" about the sales of a completely unrelated product in an unrelated genre on an unrelated platform.

Wait, what do you mean? Did you mix up god of war for gears of war or...?

 

[Omnistalgic]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

what are you talking about? Do you not remember how MS cut down the lead last holiday? You could get an X1 for like $200 or less! Lol...Sony is very much a company focusing on profit. And how many of these X1 owners already have a Ps4? Don't jump to conclusions. The biggest games for each platform are still cooking.we are talking about one region where the race is even close. The lead is almost back to last year, and Sony is definitely catering to the Casuals teens with there marketing deals in place.

 

[N.Domixis]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

Getting cod comp to switch over to ps4, will get them lots of teens and casuals.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

The biggest games for each platform are still cooking.

Nope. The biggest games are multiplats and PS4 plays them better. There's no big games cooking that can beat 1080p CoD76 or BF12 or Assassin's Creed Multiparislondon. Sony just snatched CoD from MS. Sony has all the big games soon.

Let's see what Nintendo can bring with NX. 1080p/60fps and 3rd parties? Look how they win with the best port of Call of Battlefield 46 in Assassin's Vienna's yearly iteration.

That's how it goes now. Who has the biggest pews and booms wins. It's a very similar situation in the PC world. Well, has been for years. Everyone needs to have their Amdtel i14, GTX1699 superhyper 8,5gb DDR5, 32gb DDR5, 40tb multithreaded super-PCs straight from the NASA superstore.

It's a visual competition. We love them teraflops and superhops and 320fps gaming. Right? This is how it goes. And people love those yearly franchises.

 

[Giriath_89]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

Please. Xbox shrank the gap last Holiday because it was much cheaper than the PS4. Since then the PS4 has widened the gap, despite still being the more expensive console; it is clearly people's most popular choice.

Sony have and are doing a remarkable job selling more than the competition in Xbox's home territory. To say they have failed is delusional.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Wait, what do you mean? Did you mix up god of war for gears of war or...?

Thought he was talking about Gears, but if it was God that's fine too... strike unrelated platform. Rest of the point still stands.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Amazon hourly chart, I know.

But still...

November could become a massacre if Sony drops the price.

Isn't that just because of the beta?

 

[DustyVonEric]

Wait, what do you mean? Did you mix up god of war for gears of war or...?

Thought he was talking about Gears, but if it was God that's fine too... strike unrelated platform. Rest of the point still stands.

Quick rush to make a snarky comment...

Was just looking for some insight. No matter though. I found the thread with Sony stating more remasters are very likely, which is great news for me. You'd have to figure Demon's Souls a would be on the short list

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

MS cut the price from $399 to $349 last holiday season and bundled in AC: Unity & Black Flag. On Black Friday, MS reduced the price again to $329 and Target even offered a $50 gift card for free. In contrast, Sony bundled TLOU and GTAV with the PS4, but kept the price at $399.

 

[On Demand]

Wow, I didn't know the Xbone LTD was so close to catching up to the PS4's install base in the States, Sony really failed to leverage their advantages and early lead in becoming the average Joe's/family gift choice, seems once again "playing Xbox" is synonim of "playing videogames" for teens/casuals, core games have clearly chosen PS4 tho but Sony should really blame themselves and their inability to make the console appealing no matter what to the casual crowd... Which ironically is what they do best in Europe.

Are both numbers sold through or shipped? iirc PS4 is jn fact the install base (sold through) but what about the Xbox?

Confused how you came to this conclusion.

 

[Boke1879]

CoD impact, as measured in hardware boost first week? Sure, likely bigger. But Battlefront is far more important. CoD is established. CoD will not grow the user base beyond pulling stragglers off last gen. The only thing it can do is sell a lot again.

Star Wars OTOH has the potential to attract an as-yet untapped mass market audience. And this time, they'll play with buttons and sticks.

The Batman comparisons miss the fact that that's been a nerdy comic book IP, later turned into a hilarious / stupid TV show for kids and again nerds, and that it's only managed to gain somewhat wider traction with the second Christopher Nolan movie. Star Wars is so much bigger, you'd want at least a couple adverbs to describe by how much.

Oh no. I agree with you man. I think SW bundle can potentially be HUGE.

this COD seems to be a HUGE get for Sony though. With the timed DLC, It being the console for the esports crowd, and the youtube and twitch content creators have no other choice but to show and promote the PS4 version. The timed DLC alone could have consumers willing to make the switch to Playstation just for COD