You're being pretty liberal with "big" in all those cases except maybe SC2. None of those are titles that could really drive hardware either. 2002 probably had a more marketable lineup even.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for August 2014 [Up4: PS4 #1, XB1 last week sales 2x last Jul week]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
looking forward maybe five to six years, i think we'll see sony definitely showcasing a ps5 (either for release in 2019 or 2020), with a big maybe on microsoft actually pursuing another investment of billions after two decades of pretty much nothing but losses for the division. if anything happens to xbox, i expect it to be a digital platform or at least a digital box, sort of like what they were going to do with xbox one but more fully realized.
nintendo will be effectively making nintendo boxes - toys that feature some sort of quirky element to enhance their games and perhaps only a few others (if disney, lego, and other family-friendly game makers are doing that for dedicated hardware six years from now). this will reflect a growing trend among other publishers in having a platform to themselves, except one that's digital. it may be still part of the console for playstation, but also offered elsewhere, a prelude to a new wild west of sorts resembling the late 70s and early 80s where big publishers become their own platform providers. steam will have had a 15 year head start. i don't know what could impede its growth.
on the mobile side, i don't think phones will become more complicated, but the games will be, and the people who started playing games on mobile will be adapting to such experiences, sort of a parallel to the 70s-80s-90s progression for the traditional market.
but right now i think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the traditional market.
nintendo will be effectively making nintendo boxes - toys that feature some sort of quirky element to enhance their games and perhaps only a few others (if disney, lego, and other family-friendly game makers are doing that for dedicated hardware six years from now). this will reflect a growing trend among other publishers in having a platform to themselves, except one that's digital. it may be still part of the console for playstation, but also offered elsewhere, a prelude to a new wild west of sorts resembling the late 70s and early 80s where big publishers become their own platform providers. steam will have had a 15 year head start. i don't know what could impede its growth.
on the mobile side, i don't think phones will become more complicated, but the games will be, and the people who started playing games on mobile will be adapting to such experiences, sort of a parallel to the 70s-80s-90s progression for the traditional market.
but right now i think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the traditional market.
I feel that it's already ended, it used to be that one would get the physical media and then put it into the console, then the game would run off that disc or cartridge and that was that. Now there's downloadable content, games that require internet connections, games that install to the console, and heck, the whole definition of a platform has been extended already to include digital platforms, and sometimes games like Skylanders become "platforms" in themselves, with products that a person purchases and uses for that single game. Even Nintendo's going on about how Amiibo and NFC will be its own platform, and how they're going to use the NNID as the platform in the future which they will use to provide entertainment for the customer, even if the customer is not on their Nintendo device (or doesn't have one yet). I mean geeze, I thought "platform" meant the hardware but that word is being used for other things now.
This is true, and all the studio closures last generation could be seen as a crash which is now beginning to right itself because of companies like the indies who understand how to work within time and budget constraints. Last generation itself was also an extended generation and also had the DS, Wii, and PSP which also were part of the market trying to correct itself.
While mobile is also a sign of the market trying to correct itself, mobile goes too far in the opposite direction. I cannot see mobile games become more complicated when people aren't really willing to pay for them. Many mobile games are free to most people and it seems to be the luck of the draw that makes mobile game hits. Mobile needs to expand beyond those flaws if mobile games are to evolve beyond what they already are.
If Microsoft ever left hardware, I would expect Nintendo to actually become more successful like the company was with the N64. One could say that the console industry is not big enough for three console makers, but it should logically be big enough for two. At the moment, two of the three share most of their library and the third is fairly unique so if one of the two that shared a library did leave, those fans should still be able to experience most of their favorite franchises with the other. I can see a console industry with just Sony and Nintendo as console makers being pretty balanced and successful, all things considered.
Memorabilia
Member
PS4 dudebro population eclipsed Xbone dudebro population, confirmed.
Also, shocker: Madden sucks ass this year, yet again. But there's no slowing down this freight-train of mediocrity.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I have been hearing that the PS4 is so front loaded since release. Yet it´s still selling well and breaking records. Next year there will be many software that propels people to buy PS4, or Xbone. I don´t see decline next year at all, in comparison to 2014.
Memorabilia
Member
He was referring to a Wii U sales drop off, not the PS4 or Xbone. I would have to agree the Wii U is already being phased out internally at Nintendo, even if they obviously aren't going to say that publicly until they are ready to show their next product. It would seem impossible for a system with such poor sales to have sales take an even deeper dive off a cliff. But Id say he's right. The Wii U should be sold at a deep discount for Black Friday/Xmas 2014 and may reach fire-sale status by holiday 2015. I suppose we shall see.
well this is an unusual form of tunnelvision
i just figure things will continue to fracture going forward. if microsoft bows out, they won't do it completely and utterly. a digital xbox platform similar to steam would replace the physical goods box that also played physical goods games. at the same time, if more and more companies are starting their own digital platforms, then there will be less of a need to have multiple old-style physical machines that play physical games. lastly, i doubt nintendo ever catches up to sony in the specs department, meaning a lot more effort would have to be put into multiplatform titles. i doubt it comes to that.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
i don't know who would be willing to sell the wii u at a steep discount this black friday. nintendo's made their forecasts known and they are extremely low for the entire year. they also are propping it up with some pretty bundles and the biggest ips the machine will ever see. at this point it's not about growing a userbase, but minimizing a loss. if they're doing a firesale, it's to get rid of stock sitting in warehouses like sega did with the dreamcast. it may happen, but i wouldn't expect it until 2016 if it ever did.
If they are releasing a console in 2016 that means we should see it by E3 2015 (if Nintendo actually gives a shit about hyping it up). I don't see this happening though. I expect their console by 2017.
OR
They unite their next handheld and console so closely that they release both in 2016 with games that can be played on either system.
OR
They unite their next handheld and console so closely that they release both in 2016 with games that can be played on either system.
it's possible we hear rumblings about something of the latter in late 2015 with a reveal at e3 2016 and a launch in late 2016. depends on how close the two platforms are supposed to be.
Actually you do have a point, that's probably how they'll roll. Its stupid announcing a system an entire year ahead of time.
even if they were making a new platform and will have it ready in time for 2016 (which means software for it is already underway), e3 2015 is probably going to be heavily focused on zelda, star fox, and new 3ds games.
Canis lupus
Member
You mean ~18 months ahead of time. Wii U announcement showed the archaic way of thinking at Nintendo, as if they thought last gen was gonna repeat itself. By the 2nd E3 the console was still not released, can't maintain hype and momentum with such long wait times. They'll probably learn from the competition and announce and launch future products in the same year. That's why I don't expect any new handheld or console reveals next year, it's also too early for a new handheld, they're coming up with New 3DS having its own games (despite sales falling).
I expect a new handheld in 2016 and a new console in 2017.
Wasn't until Wii U's 4th E3 that they revealed Zelda. Yeesh.
You're right, Mario Kart was Cube's biggest selling game in 2003, and Smash Bros was GameCube's biggest selling game in 2001.
2014 is Mario Kart and Smash Bros. Two of the biggest games Nintendo could have in a single year.
I doubt Zelda and Star Fox will pull in bigger numbers (than Mario Kart and Smash Bros) in 2015.
Unless Splatoon is a surprise success, I think Wii U will definitely peak in 2014.
2017 is too long for a device that sells as poorly as Wii U. Standard Nintendo 5 year gen doesn't make sense here which is why I believe they will release their new box holiday 2016. I mean even that is a little over two more years of zero third party support, bad software sales and bad hardware sales. The console is essentially dead. Right now it's selling like 2005 Gamecube (for the second year in a row). The lack of price drops on the console with Nintendo unwilling to take a serious loss on the hardware, undershipping MK8 bundles, tells you they don't think it's worth it to even try and expand the userbase significantly. And they are right, it's too late. Third party is gone and they don't have enough first party software to push units like they did with 3DS, plus the Gamepad keeps price too high.
Ideally they release both new handheld and console the same year (2016). 3DS has more life left in it than Wii U and if they have to replace one first I believe it will be Wii U.
Ideally they release both new handheld and console the same year (2016). 3DS has more life left in it than Wii U and if they have to replace one first I believe it will be Wii U.
they revealed and released the ds in the same year. i think they were so caught off guard by pretty much everything about the 3ds and wii u that it pushed back the release dates for both quite a bit. wii u was probably originally meant for a release before e3 2012, even late 2011. i think it was 3ds missing the holiday 2010 window that really screwed everything up.
3DS should have launched holiday 2011. That is when they had software ready and that is when they could have made a big splash even at the $250 price point. Launching in the spring, without games, hell without even an online store, was a bad decision. They rushed it, possibly looking ahead to the Vita without knowing what a non factor it would be.
Agreed.
And it's mind-boggling because the original Nintendo DS was launched in November.
Ever notice how the *most recent* handhelds that launch in spring aren't as successful? (PSP and PS Vita)
test_account
XP-39C²
No one could know that though.
on the list of screwups, i have to say that price would have still been one of them. $200 or nothing would be the way to go, and mario kart 7 surely would not have been rushed to the market like it was.
the biggest mistake that occurred was back in 2008, when all this money was coming in, but the company wasn't preparing themselves for future platforms. restructuring should have happened in the good years, not now. they might have been ready to launch the 3ds in 2010 and the wii u in 2011 had they known what they were getting into.
I agree. Although as far as 3DS is concerned, the DS was still doing fine in 2010. I mean November 2010 NPD DS sold 1.5 million, December was 2.5 million. Over 8.5 million that year in the US alone. Very healthy. In fact easily the best selling video game hardware that year in the US. 2011 really was the right year for their handheld, just not spring.
Imagine a launch lineup of Nintendogs, Ocarina 3D, and SM3DL in November 2011. With MK7 and possibly Star Fox and Pilotwings being held off to 2012. When you look back, 2012 was not a great year for 3DS first party software. A later launch could have changed that.
DS hardware sales were fine in 2010 but that was also the year software started diving off the cliff due to piracy.
I think a June 2011 launch probably would've been fine for 3DS, timed with Zelda and the eShop on day 1. There was quite a lot of 3rd party software by that point already too. Software wasn't really the issue, $249.99 was.
The only game that will move hardware on this list is Zelda. Yoshi, Kirby, Mario Maker and Mario Party will probably sell okay. Everything else is a bomb.
I can see a price drop/Smash Bros bundle happening in early/mid 2015, as Zelda will be their big November game, and Wii U hardware is going to sell like fucking shit until then.
Also keep in mind that Zelda is not as huge of a title as Mario Kart, Smash Bros or even 2D or 3D Mario. 2014 will be Wii U's best year, unless they pull some crazy shit next year like $99 with Smash Bros or something.
I think internal pressure to launch by Fiscal year end is what prompted the early launch of the 3ds
SwiftDeath
Member
That's why I felt pretty confident 2014 will be Wii U's peak year of sales. It really depends how Nintendo goes about a price drop for Wii U next year. $100 might move the needle enough to be up YOY but with the gamepad and Nintendo's seemingly reluctance to lose profitability on hardware compared to the Gamecube days, I'm not sure they'll drop it that much. Maybe a $50 price cut and continued value bundles
Once Nintendo clears 10 million Wii U sold (and thus their rumored Gamepad over-production) it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a $199 "core" bundle with just the system and a Pro Controller. I know Nintendo's continually insisted they won't decouple the Gamepad but so few games really necessitate it (even from Nintendo themselves) I can't help but think this is too lucrative a route to not take in the future.
theprodigy
Member
sörine;130932731 said:
heh if that actually happened there would be so much crow served on here
but I do wonder, if they keep the Gamepad how low can they ever get the price?
SwiftDeath
Member
If Nintendo were to remove the Gamepad then I could totally see a $200 version of the Wii U and eventually maybe a $150 version once they start to discontinue it. Not sure $100 is ever likely though
If Nintendo doesn't drop the gamepad though, I think $200 itself is a hard price to swallow for Nintendo. Did we ever get a good estimate for the BOM of the Wii U broken out with Gamepad costs?
If Nintendo doesn't drop the gamepad though, I think $200 itself is a hard price to swallow for Nintendo. Did we ever get a good estimate for the BOM of the Wii U broken out with Gamepad costs?
The scary thing if I'm Nintendo is that the price ceiling keeps getting lower and lower on mobile devices.
I used to say they needed to hit the market at $99 with a dedicated device but now Amazon has their machines hitting the market at $99. By the time Nintendo launches 4DS, it's going to be competing with like $2.99 tablets made by Xiaomen or whatever from China that play all the games kids want and are even edible or some crazy shit.
Waiting is such a bad idea. I honestly do not understand New 3DS at all.
I used to say they needed to hit the market at $99 with a dedicated device but now Amazon has their machines hitting the market at $99. By the time Nintendo launches 4DS, it's going to be competing with like $2.99 tablets made by Xiaomen or whatever from China that play all the games kids want and are even edible or some crazy shit.
Waiting is such a bad idea. I honestly do not understand New 3DS at all.
I see them as having three primary problems:
1.) I suspect they determined they couldn't actually get enough software together for Fall 2015 because they put all their staff on a sea of Wii U games (some of which take a lot of staff) and there's probably some working on the imminent QoL release as well. They already are incapable of supporting the 3DS at the same time as this Wii U push.
2.) Most Japanese games don't sell in the West, so it's basically up to Nintendo to push the system. 4DS games will also be taking more resources to make than 3DS games do, so to get a sufficient line-up for launch is even harder than it was for the 3DS, which they did an awful job supporting up front.
3.) They might be waiting for some point of technology where they feel the handheld tech can sufficiently match whatever lands in their next console as well. They've implied multiple times that the two might share software, presumably because it's already impossible for them to support two platforms and next generation they're just totally doomed on that front.
However, the longer they take, the more the theoretical audience they can sell their platforms to evaporates. It's a pretty bad situation to be in.
I feel like Wii U simply doesn't have the yields to make $199 viable in the foreseeable unless the Gamepad is dropped (which has been said added ~$100 or so to production costs early on). If they did do $199 Wii U/Pro Controller and say a separate $99 Gamepad that might get them farther than the current $299 combination. They could even rotate bundles with each, say $229 Wii U + Mario Kart 8 and $119 Gamepad + Captain Toad. The issue seems to be the inventory of Gamepads Nintendo already has and needs to move, leading to the stance against decoupling. That's why I'm guessing it'll change after that inventory is spent but really they should consider doing it sooner for the health of the platform.
Yields are why I'm also sort of expecting Nintendo to recycle the Wii U chipset in QOL. It'll increase production and thus drive down costs for both.
If they launch early without games whatever they put out is doomed regardless of price or how great the hardware is. Waiting until they can adequately support the device is the best option. N3DS is the stop gap, which will live off 3DS remaining software pipeline along with some ports from Nintendo. It's certainly not an enviable situation, and they brought this on themselves, but I'm not seeing any other options to be honest.
Also, nailing the shared software thing is critical to their long term success. They really need to take whatever time they need and get it right because next gen is do or die for Nintendo.
USA (NPD)
3DS: ~965,000
XBO: ~1,390,000
Japan (Famitsu)
3DS: 1,521,599
XBO: 27,136
Given the totals there I'd say it's a safe bet 3DS is ahead worldwide.
SwiftDeath
Member
sörine;130935974 said:
The gamepad is cool and if/when I buy a Wii U myself I would like one but I'm not sure Nintendo would be able to meaningfully sell gamepads separately. Even bundling games that require it may not be effective if the cost is too high. Nintendo would need to cover packaging/transportation costs as well as make a profit themselves in my opinion based on how they operate. $129 for a gamepad and game bundle seems optimistic if the gamepad costs $100 itself. MS's kinect at most supposedly had a BOM of like $75 and they're upselling it at $150. Granted the gamepad has far more games of merit that actually use the damn thing
I could potentially see Nintendo unbundling the gamepad when the initial production allotment is finished or close to being finished and then selling the remainder separately but if BOM is around $100 then I fully expect it to sit in the $150 peripheral club with Kinect 2.0
I think it's also important to spread out their software correctly,it does little good to frontload software like what happened with the Vita albeit that system had other issues of course. Nintendo needs to try and release software consistently for at least the first 2 years lest they fall into droughts again because they cannot rely on 3rd party suppport
sörine;130939562 said:
You could estimate YTD's for UK and Germany for the XB1 but I'm not sure you could do the same for the 3DS
We don't know the Gamepad BOM for sure so don't take that $100 as gospel. And it was near launch too so who knows what cost revisions would be possible today. If the costs are higher they could also bundle older multiple games to help offset that, say Nintendo Land and Lego City Undercover. As is I believe Nintendo's repair center charges $149.99 for a replacement Gamepad versus $199.99 for a replacement Wii U console itself or $199.99 for a full set of both (with Nintendo Land) refurbished.
The other advantage I see with decoupling the Gamepad is that they can offer revisions much more easily. Maybe they come out with smaller/cheaper Gamepads, Gamepads in different colors, Game specific SE Gamepads, etc.
"Upgrades" are great for continued hardware sales into nearly saturated markets, without dropping the price.
Almost every sale of a N3DS is also going to be a hand-me-down of a not-new 3DS. For prices Nintendo can't afford to sell at, or even free.
biglittleps
Member
I agree, they should not have introduced this new 3DS and should have gone for new hardware after next year. Seems like they want to go with this hardware for another 2 more years by then Smartphones and Tablets gets even cheaper and more powerful with many developers focusing on Mobile these days. So, Nintendo need to embrace this Open mobile platform or need to provide excellent first party software and hardware under 200$ which is hard to keep them alive for long time unless they get 3rd party support.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
sörine;130932731 said:
I don't think they can decouple the Gamepad entirely.
In terms of left-field 'out of the box' solutions for doing so, all I could imagine them doing would be making the N3DS work as a Gamepad in a PS4 -. Vita remote play fashion, but I'm not sure that actually works out cheaper for anyone.
sörine;130940861 said:
You honestly think Nintendo wants to manufacture *more* Gamepads when they can barely sell their current allotment? Do you realize that retailers would likely not even stock stand alone Gamepads since the Wii U is such a flop at retail? And you are assuming Nintendo has long term plans for this console when all indications point to Nintendo just trying to sell what they got and moving on.
Smash Bros. will already include N3DS-as-controller functionality it seems. I feel like this might work as a solution for some were the Gamepad decoupled. There's definitely value in there for consumers, especially if we ever see multi-Gamepad games materialize.
Where are you getting that indication? From what I see they're doubling down on Wii U for the foreseeable future, rightly or wrongly.
I bet retail would still take SE Gamepads bundled with key software releases. Or maybe a revised Gamepad Mini that costs less and eats less shelf space. Even if retail shrugs their noses at the Gamepad as if it were a Vita, it's probably better for Nintendo than them doing it to Wii U as a whole. All I see with decoupling are more options for Nintendo really.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
sörine;130943321 said:
Unfortunately, if they sell a WiiU sans Gamepad and expect people to get an N3DS instead, I can see the "wtf, greedy nintendo" / "omg confuse casuals!" topics already.
SwiftDeath
Member
sörine;130940861 said:
Right the $100 BOM is certainly not fact but I have trouble believing it's cost is considerably less than around $100 considering the rest of the Wii U being fairly reasonable except perhaps specific to Nintendo's needs [BC etc.]
At best I could see a gamepad with games retailing for $125 - $150 separately and as you noted Nintendo replacement of gamepad is around $150 so that seems reasonably close to what it would be. As such I don't really see much success on the gamepad front much like there won't be much success on the kinect 2.0 front simply due to your average consumer not being able to see the value in the peripheral right off the bat. Why am I going to spend an extra $125 - $150 on this instead of DKCTF, MK8 and Bayonetta 2? Are Nintendoland and Toad's Treasure Tracker better games?
I see Nintendo burning through the majority of the gamepad inventory, decoupling it and then only selling gamepads as a peripheral in their online store or Amazon etc. The system itself is entirely unhealthy in sales for retail, I doubt they want to take stock on what many would probably consider to be a key reason for Wii U's failure. Then from there Nintendo basically just sells gamepad less Wii U's at retail at least
That's assuming Nintendo decides to decouple the gamepad, if they choose not to then they simply weather the continued terrible performance of the Wii U saleswise as a reasonable pricecut wouldn't happen
------------
There is no way Nintendo would require a N3DS in order to operate a gamepad-less SKU of the Wii U. They would simply update the OS accordingly and ask retail to apply "Gamepad required" stickers to the appropriate games
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
The assumption that they decouple the Gamepad is the same assumption that they stop making Gamepads.