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[ZSaberLink]

Based on past comments from Nintendo, and their thoughts that they'd like the handhelds and consoles to operate more closely together, there's absolutely no reason both a new HH and a new console could not launch together in 2016.

It might be the best way for one last go at the console market to work for them.

It could also be used to give the Wii U titles for about a year as well right? It'd also give an excuse for Japanese parties to release stuff on the Wii U (kind of like how they do with the Vita & PS3 and now Vita & PS4).

The current situation of the Wii U really isn't tenable.

They can't continually cash checks and lose loads of money to buy retail space, and at some point the retailers will want to put something else there anyway if things aren't selling.

The 3DS, while declining, at least is actually a notably physically smaller object and is selling better than its counterpart.

Although by next year, what's stopping the 3DS from selling Wii U like numbers as well in the West? The revision pretty much seems like the only thing apart from a bunch of the titles releasing in Japan now/soon (Bravely Second, Final Fantasy Explorers, MH4U, etc.)

 

[mrklaw]

Based on past comments from Nintendo, and their thoughts that they'd like the handhelds and consoles to operate more closely together, there's absolutely no reason both a new HH and a new console could not launch together in 2016.

It might be the best way for one last go at the console market to work for them.

In that case the next hand-held could release alongside the current. So how about Q1 2015 N3DS, Q4 2015 4DS, Q4 2016 Wii Z

 

[Aquamarine]

Hm? I don't think they're going to release a new home console in 2016 because I think that's when we're going to see the actual 3DS successor. Honestly I think to Nintendo at this point, salvaging their 3DS/handheld operations around the world to compete with smartphones is more important than their home console business. Nintendo has had a weak home console business before and has survived. They've never had a somewhat weak handheld business too. If Nintendo does worse with handhelds than it has done with the 3DS (mostly in the West), they're likely exiting the hardware business entirely sooner or later. Seeing that Sony is likely to exit that market, Nintendo really needs to come up with a good strategy to keep portable momentum going. With the 3DS they also have the power in Japan to continue getting support for the console and potentially come up with a cost-effective portable that competes with smartphones. Likely the entry price needs to be cheap (like not much more than $99), games need to be cheaper (definitely not $40), and it probably needs a very robust digital marketplace that provides obvious advantages for and focus around games (and potentially entertainment in general).

Personally my take...
2015: N3DS (West), QoL, Wii U software
2016: 3DS successor
2017: Wii U successor

I just think putting time and effort into the 3DS or even QoL is likely a better investment. QoL & Amiibos could hopefully provide some supplementary income for Nintendo's main game development platforms.

Iwata needs to answer to his shareholders.

Waiting until 2018 (or hell, even 2017) with the same failing console demonstrates the complete opposite of that.

Nintendo isn't a charity. They need to make a profit, and keeping the Wii U alive any longer than absolutely necessary is just losing them money at this point.

They're giving it the old college try with full support in 2015 / early 2016, but when the console still doesn't rise above mediocrity, they're going to have to abandon it.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Wii U will be long dead before 2018...trust me on that.

My guesstimates aren't based on faith in the WiiU, but on scepticism that Nintendo are capable of managing multiple hardware launches simultaneously*, and my assumption that QOL / unknown fitness project is going to reach the market sooner than either the 3DS or WiiU successor will.

EDIT:
Or even near-simultaneously - I do not think they have any option other than to leave a gap between hardware releases of around a year

 

[ZSaberLink]

Iwata needs to answer to his shareholders.

Waiting until 2017 (or hell, even 2018) with the same failing console demonstrates the complete opposite of that.

Nintendo isn't a charity. They need to make a business, and keeping the Wii U alive any longer than absolutely necessary is just losing them money at this point.

They're giving it the old college try with full support in 2015 / early 2016, but when the console still doesn't rise above mediocrity, they're going to have to abandon it.

Out of curiosity, if the Wii U actually sold mediocrely, wouldn't that be a bunch better than current sales? If let's say, they are in a stage in early 2016 where QoL is profitable, new 3DS starts off well, and the Wii U is still doing mediocrely (profitable? losing less money? still unclear here) to rush to save/replace the Wii U rather than building on successful initiatives? I really don't think 6 months - 1 year will necessarily make a huge difference in the short term, but it could make a big difference in the long run.

Also like MyNyar said, this is less about ideals and about actual realities. Launching 3 products and a revision in the span of 2 years is not Nintendo's strong suit. It's far more important for the launches to be strong than getting them out there. There are tons of things that publicly traded companies do that make investors angry. Personally the idea that Iwata needs to "answer to investors" (over their employees & customers) still is kind of bogus to me, but I understand that's how modern day companies have been told to be run. Companies run while regarding investors too highly are typically terrible companies for the employees and eventually get run down to the ground. Anyways, that's kind off topic. However, I do agree that Nintendo can't just keep having a section of its business draining so much money that they're no longer making profits. However, just like Microsoft w/ Bing and other companies, as long they're making profits as a whole and are on a path to grow those, I think things will be fine. I'm not too familiar with Japanese shareholders, but they seem far more tepid compared to Western ones.

 

[ninjablade]

Iwata needs to answer to his shareholders.

Waiting until 2017 (or hell, even 2018) with the same failing console demonstrates the complete opposite of that.

Nintendo isn't a charity. They need to make a business, and keeping the Wii U alive any longer than absolutely necessary is just losing them money at this point.

They're giving it the old college try with full support in 2015 / early 2016, but when the console still doesn't rise above mediocrity, they're going to have to abandon it.

What are they gonna do next though? i don't see third party's supporting nintendo next console, they might as well go third party, instead of suffering more losses and relying on lightning in a bottle.

 

[joeposh]

The current situation of the Wii U really isn't tenable.

They can't continually cash checks and lose loads of money to buy retail space, and at some point the retailers will want to put something else there anyway if things aren't selling.

The 3DS, while declining, at least is actually a notably physically smaller object and is selling better than its counterpart.

I don't see the Wii U making it past 2016 either. Zelda and some lesser franchises will carry them through 2015, but they need to launch something in 2016 to stay viable.

Holiday 2016 they'll need to be swinging for the fences with a successor.

 

[allan-bh]

1.37m

Unbelievably bad.

Thanks for the infos.

 

[Plinko]

What are they gonna do next though? i don't see third party's supporting nintendo next console, they might as well go third party, instead of suffering more losses and relying on lighting in a bottle.

Third party would probably support if it was more powerful than the other consoles on the market. I don't believe for a second that Sony/MS are going to have a 5-year cycle before the next console. I predict 7-8 years, and, if true, Nintendo could have a year or two on the market all by themselves with the most powerful console. That could be enough to get third party support back.

 

[Liabe Brave]

It's tracking worse then Gamecube's Mario Kart Double Dash by a considerable margin but at the same time the attach rate is far better, as in MK8's current attach rate is basically double Mario Kart Double Dash's attach rate on the gamecube so I think it's clear the game is suffering greatly in sales from Wii U's lackluster install base

That's not really how it works. Attach rate is a second-order metric, not an inherent characteristic that certain games have. MK8's attach rate is higher because of the low hardware sales of WiiU, not because of any properties of the game itself. If the game was on a more popular system, the attach rate could easily be lower (even if the game sold lots more).

It's true that WiiU is holding back MK8, but not because there's some maximum attach rate barrier. It's because there are people who want MK8, but don't find the console's other features and games worth the entry price. People base their purchases on how attractive the system is, not on how many it's already sold. (With one caveat: some consumers may take installed base as a proxy indicator of future support, or a barometer of multiplayer variety. But these points are typically further down the list of considerations even for them, and not relevant at all for many buyers.)

Problem with those is that XB360 made close to half of all sales in US, while PS3 did only about a third there. So the XB360 peak could be much more pronounced, while PS3 sold more evenly across time zones.

I'm sorry? What you just said is true--the 360 peak will be more pronounced--but that works against your argument, not for it! Since 360 sales are concentrated in one geographic region, the bunching will cause a peak that over-represents concurrent players versus total players. Thus the PS3's higher numbers than 360 are underestimating the true gap in active players.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Third party would probably support if it was more powerful than the other consoles on the market. I don't believe for a second that Sony/MS are going to have a 5-year cycle before the next console. I predict 7-8 years, and, if true, Nintendo could have a year or two on the market all by themselves with the most powerful console. That could be enough to get third party support back.

There is no way this cycle lasts as long as the last one. Both companies have 'skimped' on hardware, because this is a consolidation cycle after the last generation war and for both MS and Sony profitability is more important than number crunching performance.

there's also the fact that if MS remain in the console business there is no way in hell they are going 8 years as an underpowered distant second place console.

Nintendo machine power is irrelevant, the problem third parties have with nintendo consoles is perception of userbases, and releasing the worlds most powerful console ever before either MS or Sony show their offerings will see it dreamcasted by concept renders and tech engine demos.

 

[Nirolak]

Although by next year, what's stopping the 3DS from selling Wii U like numbers as well in the West? The revision pretty much seems like the only thing apart from a bunch of the titles releasing in Japan now/soon (Bravely Second, Final Fantasy Explorers, MH4U, etc.)

We could certainly have more decline.

It's just that if we take the amount of time the Wii U has been allowed on shelves at its current sales volume, apply that to the 3DS, and then account for the system and the games actually being physically smaller, I feel there isn't likely to be huge retailer pressure to actually discontinue the product before the end of a fairly normal lifespan.

 

[sörine]

In that case the next hand-held could release alongside the current. So how about Q1 2015 N3DS, Q4 2015 4DS, Q4 2016 Wii Z

I think there's a software pipeline issue there with QOL and I really doubt Nintendo will launch the 3DS successor only 9-12 months after 3DS.

My proposal would be N3DS Q1 2015, QOL Q4 2015/Q1 2016, 4DS Q4 2016/Q1 2017. Wii Z Q3/Q4 2017.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Weren't Nintendo supposed to be showing off QOL this calendar year? I thought so, not that I think that QOL will impact their traditional game software groups, maybe just the wii fit guys.
I think new 3DS will have one US holiday to itself at least, even though I don't expect the revision to be a huge boost.

 

[Mpl90]

Weren't Nintendo supposed to be showing off QOL this calendar year? I thought so.

At this point, I suppose next Investor Briefing is going to be when they show it.

Spoiler

And I'm pretty curious to see if Pachter will try again to say there's no Investor Briefing in October...'cause, you know, last two years this kind of forecast went so well!

 

[Aquamarine]

Out of curiosity, if the Wii U actually sold mediocrely, wouldn't that be a bunch better than current sales? If let's say, they are in a stage in early 2016 where QoL is profitable, new 3DS starts off well, and the Wii U is still doing mediocrely (profitable? losing less money? still unclear here) to rush to save/replace the Wii U rather than building on successful initiatives? I really don't think 6 months - 1 year will necessarily make a huge difference in the short term, but it could make a big difference in the long run.

Also like MyNyar said, this is less about ideals and about actual realities. Launching 3 products and a revision in the span of 2 years is not Nintendo's strong suit. It's far more important for the launches to be strong than getting them out there. There are tons of things that publicly traded companies do that make investors angry. Personally the idea that Iwata needs to "answer to investors" (over their employees & customers) still is kind of bogus to me, but I understand that's how modern day companies have been told to be run. Companies run while regarding investors too highly are typically terrible companies for the employees and eventually get run down to the ground. Anyways, that's kind off topic. However, I do agree that Nintendo can't just keep having a section of its business draining so much money that they're no longer making profits. However, just like Microsoft w/ Bing and other companies, as long they're making profits as a whole and are on a path to grow those, I think things will be fine. I'm not too familiar with Japanese shareholders, but they seem far more tepid compared to Western ones.

I'm still doubtful that Nintendo is actually going to do that.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I'm still doubtful that Nintendo is actually going to do that.

So you're expecting no QoL or a combined handheld/home console? Obviously if it's combined it's a different discussion entirely lol.

 

[ninjablade]

Third party would probably support if it was more powerful than the other consoles on the market. I don't believe for a second that Sony/MS are going to have a 5-year cycle before the next console. I predict 7-8 years, and, if true, Nintendo could have a year or two on the market all by themselves with the most powerful console. That could be enough to get third party support back.

I doubt that. the main reason third party's don't support the wiiu is because third party games just don't sell on it, even huge franchises were bombing on it. now its gonna be another generation with nintendo hardware not really establishing itself with third party's or any of the huge third party franchises, it's only gonna get worse.

 

[Anth0ny]

What games would Wii U have in 2016? Or hell, 2017?

Even 2015 will be a step down from this year, hardware sales wise.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Weren't Nintendo supposed to be showing off QOL this calendar year? I thought so, not that I think that QOL will impact their traditional game software groups, maybe just the wii fit guys.
I think new 3DS will have one US holiday to itself at least, even though I don't expect the revision to be a huge boost.

I think QoL is still going to be very much traditional Nintendo and require as many resources as any other new platform release does, and I also suspect the existence of N3DS is due to QoL not being ready for unveiling - N3DS is there to stop the handheld division bleed and assuage shareholders while they prepare QoL.

 

[theprodigy]

Well I guess if they wait until 2018 we can see if an active home console can reach 3 digits a month.

haha holy shit

Spoiler

maybe the Vita can do it in 2015 for an "active" handheld too

 

[SwiftDeath]

What games would Wii U have in 2016? Or hell, 2017?

Even 2015 will be a step down from this year, hardware sales wise.

I think 2014 will be the peak sales year for Wii U much like 2003 was for Gamecube. I can only imagine the sale numbers in 2016 even assuming a successor would be launched then

 

[CosmicQueso]

Right now, most people would have more luck picking a number on a roulette wheel than trying to figure out what Nintendo might do on any given day.

 

[Anth0ny]

If they're really going to do this hybrid thing, 2016 for a new Nintendo console and handheld makes sense to me. Both 3DS and Wii U are going to struggle in 2015, from the looks of it.

 

[cw_sasuke]

If they're really going to do this hybrid thing, 2016 for a new Nintendo console and handheld makes sense to me. Both 3DS and Wii U are going to struggle in 2015, from the looks of it.

There won't be a hybrid console, but like GBA and Cube their launches won't be be far apart from each other. Their new home console should be ready for a holiday 2016 launch, and their portable a couple months sooner.

 

[Zalman]

I don't know what they're going to do, but I feel that something will happen in 2016 for sure. That alone has me excited.

 

[Graphics Horse]

So you're expecting no QoL or a combined handheld/home console? Obviously if it's combined it's a different discussion entirely lol.

Edit: Wow I totally misread your post. Apologies. I'll leave what I said anyway because it's true.

QOL's not a console, it's not any sort of traditional games machine. That's about all we know, lol. It might not even have a display output of its own, leaving it to smart devices / 3DS to view whatever the fuck it does.

I think QoL is still going to be very much traditional Nintendo and require as many resources as any other new platform release does, and I also suspect the existence of N3DS is due to QoL not being ready for unveiling - N3DS is there to stop the handheld division bleed and assuage shareholders while they prepare QoL.

The idea that, lets say, a health monitoring deveice would use the same resources as a handheld launch is scary to me. Nintendo is after easy profits with this direction, not a giant new investment in software development.

 

[Welfare]

Were Metro numbers ever stated?

 

[ZSaberLink]

I think 2014 will be the peak sales year for Wii U much like 2003 was for Gamecube. I can only imagine the sale numbers in 2016 even assuming a successor would be launched then

I still have this slight hope that 2015 will actually be the peak sales year of the console. There was still barely any software for the system this year despite the actual titles being bigger. If Nintendo is able to release 1 title a month, it'd be tons more than the console is currently getting. If Nintendo was able to get a good holiday season going this year, it could bleed into at least a stronger 1st half of 2015.

If I'm not mistaken, this year we've had:
January - nothing
February - Wii Fit U retail (unadvertised), DKC: TF, Lego Movie
March - Cabela
April - Lego Hobbit
May - (end) Amazing Spiderman 2, Mario Kart 8
June - How to Train Your Dragons 2, Transformers
July - Wii Sports Club
August - I think absolutely nothing ... not even licensed titles....

In essence Wii Fit U retail (bombed), DKC: TF, Mario Kart 8, Wii Sports Club (uggh), two Lego games, and 3 licensed titles. Maybe this holiday season will actually be decent enough (I hope so), but at the very least apart from MK8, it should be fairly easy to top the 1st 8 months here.... but then again the Wii U manages to underperform even the worst expectations every time...

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

The idea that, lets say, a health monitoring deveice would use the same resources as a handheld launch is scary to me. Nintendo is after easy profits with this direction, not a giant new investment in software development.

The stated problem with fitness products is motivating people to persist with them after the novelty wears off.
Given Nintendos history, I can't imagine QoL as anything other than an attempt at the gamification of fitness products to provide that motivation. It will use withered technology and be software driven to do this (because the other way round, coming up with entirely unanticipated bleeding edge hardware doesn't fit their company style at all.)

 

[Game Guru]

There is no way this cycle lasts as long as the last one. Both companies have 'skimped' on hardware, because this is a consolidation cycle after the last generation war and for both MS and Sony profitability is more important than number crunching performance.

there's also the fact that if MS remain in the console business there is no way in hell they are going 8 years as an underpowered distant second place console.

Nintendo machine power is irrelevant, the problem third parties have with nintendo consoles is perception of userbases, and releasing the worlds most powerful console ever before either MS or Sony show their offerings will see it dreamcasted by concept renders and tech engine demos.

It is possible that the generation will be extended because of the development times needed for modern games. In the past, games were limited by power, but now they are limited mainly by time and money. There is no reason to continue the increase in power if few are going to actually use it because it takes too much time or it is much too expensive to do so.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

It is possible that the generation will be extended because of the development times needed for modern games. In the past, games were limited by power, but now they are limited mainly by time and money. There is no reason to continue the increase in power if few are going to actually use it because it takes too much time or it is much too expensive to do so.

I don't entirely disagree with this, other than time and budget were already the major constraining factor last generation, but as long as "power" remains a consoles USP for "average joe" the arms race will continue, regardless of spiralling costs or diminshing graphical returns, until either a crash or an oligopoly / cartel of big publishers and hardware manufacturers is established.

 

[CosmicQueso]

It is possible that the generation will be extended because of the development times needed for modern games. In the past, games were limited by power, but now they are limited mainly by time and money. There is no reason to continue the increase in power if few are going to actually use it because it takes too much time or it is much too expensive to do so.

BINGO. And the consumer spend base has not increased in line with production costs.

It's no longer a real question of what is possible on the hardware limiting what software can be made on the Console, it's a question of enough consumer demand and dollars existing to pay for making that software.

I don't entirely disagree with this, other than time and budget were already the major constraining factor last generation, but as long as "power" remains a consoles USP for "average joe" the arms race will continue, regardless of spiralling costs or diminshing graphical returns, until either a crash or an oligopoly / cartel of big publishers and hardware manufacturers is established.

There are, effectively, 2 growing platforms as of today, 1 healthy and 1 on the borderline, and only a handful of publishers actively developing multi-title slates for these 2 platforms, don't you think?

 

[Etnos]

Glad to see the xbone gaining some traction, I enjoy mine a lot. IMO a under appreciated system.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Were Metro numbers ever stated?

No

I still have this slight hope that 2015 will actually be the peak sales year of the console. There was still barely any software for the system this year despite the actual titles being bigger. If Nintendo is able to release 1 title a month, it'd be tons more than the console is currently getting. If Nintendo was able to get a good holiday season going this year, it could bleed into at least a stronger 1st half of 2015.

If I'm not mistaken, this year we've had:
January - nothing
February - Wii Fit U retail (unadvertised), DKC: TF, Lego Movie
March - Cabela
April - Lego Hobbit
May - (end) Amazing Spiderman 2, Mario Kart 8
June - How to Train Your Dragons 2, Transformers
July - Wii Sports Club
August - I think absolutely nothing ... not even licensed titles....

In essence Wii Fit U retail (bombed), DKC: TF, Mario Kart 8, Wii Sports Club (uggh), two Lego games, and 3 licensed titles. Maybe this holiday season will actually be decent enough (I hope so), but at the very least apart from MK8, it should be fairly easy to top the 1st 8 months here.... but then again the Wii U manages to underperform even the worst expectations every time...

I'm probably not familiar enough with the already announced 2015 lineup for Wii U

From what I can decipher from here we're looking at for 2015

• Kirby and the Rainbow Curse
• Mario Party 10
• Mario Vs. Donkey Kong [eshop only?]
• Project Cars
• Project Guard [Probably eshop only???]
• Star Fox U
• Zelda U
• Xenoblade X
• Mario Maker
• Project Giant Robot [Probably eshop only???]
• Splatoon
• Yoshi's Woolly World
• Earthlock: Festival of Magic [eshop only]
• Devil's Third maybe?

There's more games listed but none looked relevant to the discussion

So Zelda will be the holiday season I bet, Splatoon is supposed to be H1 2015 I think, Mario Party 10 might be a early summer launch, and then there's still Kirby, Yoshi, Star Fox and Xenoblade so I do agree that variety wise 2015 should be much better than 2014 for Wii U software. Unfortunately I'm still of the opinion that 2014 will probably be Wii U's best year but I could see being proven wrong

 

[sörine]

I think 2014 will be the peak sales year for Wii U much like 2003 was for Gamecube. I can only imagine the sale numbers in 2016 even assuming a successor would be launched then

I could see 2014 being the peak year but it largely depends on Wii U's price curve in 2015. After all Gamecube peaked in 2003 due almost entirely to $99 which is vastly different from why Wii U improved in 2014. A $199 Wii U in 2015 could still change things imo

QOL's not a console, it's not any sort of traditional games machine. That's about all we know, lol. It might not even have a display output of its own, leaving it to smart devices / 3DS to view whatever the fuck it does.

The idea that, lets say, a health monitoring deveice would use the same resources as a handheld launch is scary to me. Nintendo is after easy profits with this direction, not a giant new investment in software development.

I strongly suspect QOL will recycle technology from Wii U. The chipset itself is incredibly efficient/low emission and it'll allow Nintendo to save lots of cash by having shared development pipelines and increasing silicon yields. As a bonus it'd also lower costs on Wii U production.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I could see 2014 being the peak year but it largely depends on Wii U's price curve in 2015. After all Gamecube peaked in 2003 due almost entirely to $99 which is vastly different from why Wii U improved in 2014. A $199 Wii U in 2015 could still change things imo

Ah that's true. I haven't really given much thought to pricecuts for any of the current systems really. I'm certain a $100 price cut would improve the baseline in 2015 but I'm not sure how easy that is for Nintendo with the gamepad's expense. Here's hoping that happens then

 

[theprodigy]

I could see 2014 being the peak year but it largely depends on Wii U's price curve in 2015. After all Gamecube peaked in 2003 due almost entirely to $99 which is vastly different from why Wii U improved in 2014. A $199 Wii U in 2015 could still change things imo

well even before the price cut, 2003 Gamecube was tracking ahead of 2002 (and that year had a price cut in June.....on that note I wonder if the reasons the Wii U comparisons so far have been so big YoY is because its pre-price drop)

 

[ZSaberLink]

well even before the price cut, Gamecube was tracking ahead of 2002 (and that year had a price cut in June)

It was tracking about 30K ahead in 2003 before the price cut in September. It was pretty much flat except with a boost of Zelda: WW in March.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Gamecube peaked in 2003 more because of Mario Kart than the price drop.It helped but without that software it wouldn't of carried momentum into the holiday. Not just Mario Kart actually, people seem to forget just how stellar the 2003 Gamecube lineup really was. It was arguably the best Nintendo has ever put forward for a single year in the US.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

There are, effectively, 2 growing platforms as of today, 1 healthy and 1 on the borderline, and only a handful of publishers actively developing multi-title slates for these 2 platforms, don't you think?

I do, but I don't think we've hit status quo yet - I expect more bloodshed, mergers, acquisitions, consolidations and failures amongst the current publishers.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I just realized the GC in Jan 2002 sold about the same as the Wii U in Jan 2013... random, but I never thought the GC ever reached Wii U levels in anything.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I do, but I don't think we've hit status quo yet - I expect more bloodshed, mergers, acquisitions, consolidations and failures amongst the current publishers.

Looking at the release slate, you can add "just walking away" to the list too. Why risk spending the amount of money it takes to make one game for the new consoles if you can make 25 mobile/small/digital games? Odds are much better.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Looking at the release slate, you can add "just walking away" to the list too. Why risk spending the amount of money it takes to make one game for the new consoles if you can make 25 mobile/small/digital games? Odds are much better.

That definitely seems to be the Japanese route, but Western publishers still seem to have stars in their eyes regarding console development.

 

[sörine]

Gamecube peaked in 2003 more because of Mario Kart than the price drop.It helped but without that software it wouldn't of carried momentum into the holiday. Not just Mario Kart actually, people seem to forget just how stellar the 2003 Gamecube lineup really was. It was arguably the best Nintendo has ever put forward for a single year in the US.

Mario Kart wasn't as big a brand then as it is now, back then it was more on par with 3D Mario. $99 was the biggest driver really.

The only other big releases that year too were Wind Waker in March and Mario Party 5 in the fall. It wasn't an especially strong year at all, especially since Pikmin 2 and FFCC got pushed to 2004.

 

[allan-bh]

I could see 2014 being the peak year but it largely depends on Wii U's price curve in 2015. After all Gamecube peaked in 2003 due almost entirely to $99 which is vastly different from why Wii U improved in 2014. A $199 Wii U in 2015 could still change things imo

Oh, I remember 2003. Gamecube had a better holiday than Xbox and sold more in 2003. People was thinking that that would reach 2nd place, but Xbox absolutely crushed Cube in 2004.

It's fun remember the past expectations and compare with what happened.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Mario Kart wasn't as big a brand then as it is now, back then it was more on par with 3D Mario. $99 was the biggest driver really.

The only other big releases that year too were Wind Waker in March and Mario Party 5 in the fall. It wasn't an especially strong year at all, especially since Pikmin 2 and FFCC got pushed to 2004.

F-Zero GX
Viewtiful Joe (As crazy as it sounds, it actually sold really well)
Soul Calibur II
Star Wars Rogue Squadron III

All of these games did well and helped to drive holiday sales. Again people will probably laugh about me listing VJ but it really did well on GC at launch and even made it into the op 10 for the month it launched. Soul Calibur ultimately did almost as well on the GC as it did on the PS2 in the states thanks to Link

 

[Ty4on]

I just realized the GC in Jan 2002 sold about the same as the Wii U in Jan 2013... random, but I never thought the GC ever reached Wii U levels in anything.

Returns or launch bump ending?

We know the WiiU sold very poorly its first January because of high returns primarily from scalpers and I've wondered if the same was the case with the XB1 sales in its first January. The PS4 also had am abnormally bad January, but that could in part be poor supply.

Edit: Regarding WiiU successor and everything I still find it odd that no successor is off the table. What could a new Nintendo console do? The console market isn't growing and even when it did Nintendo struggled when they made a competitive console. Maybe they could go "hybrid" third party to test the waters. A new console is a much bigger risk in my opinion.

 

[vinnygambini]

I'm of the same opinion as CosmicQueso.

New 3DS will be stop-gap in order for the 3DS business to remain current and profitable in the market-place.

Nintendo will weather the storm with Wii U, absorb the architecture as mentioned by Iwata in their IR meetings, and launch both their handheld and console offerings in holiday 2016.

One will see the same strategy utilized by Super Smash Bros - available on two platforms - with most of their software releases.

It's the best strategy they can have moving forward as developing two separate platforms is killing them, as one platform will always be disregarded in the end, much like the 3DS was this year in order to concentrate their efforts on reviving the Wii U platform.

 

[shinra-bansho]

QoL seems more like something that runs separate and parallel to their core gaming brands. Something more akin to what Graphics Horse is saying.

Nintendo is after easy profits with this direction, not a giant new investment in software development.

(Which is also why at this stage I don't really see it succeeding as a brand extension.) So I don't expect it will really interfere with new gaming hardware plans.

A new console by holiday 2016 really seems like their only route forward. Leaving it to 2018, even 2017, really doesn't seem feasible.

Third party would probably support if it was more powerful than the other consoles on the market. I don't believe for a second that Sony/MS are going to have a 5-year cycle before the next console. I predict 7-8 years, and, if true, Nintendo could have a year or two on the market all by themselves with the most powerful console. That could be enough to get third party support back.

This doesn't seem like an assumption based in reality. Simply having a more powerful console isn't going to solve Nintendo's third party relations/audience issues.