Coded Heroin
Banned
Thanks for the numbers.
Great growth for the series and ND games overall. Gonna be interesting to see how well Uncharted 4 performs in this part of the world.
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NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Thanks for the numbers.
Great growth for the series and ND games overall. Gonna be interesting to see how well Uncharted 4 performs in this part of the world.
US+UK is most likely much higher than 70%. I'd say 75-80, probably closer to 80 than to 75.
That's a good one. For the most part we don't know how well MLB The Show does every year. We know its doing well and is on the upswing. I'm guessing it sells at least 1m every year?
But How you know this?
Can be worse... Like, one month of Wii is bigger than 2 years + launch year of Wii U.
The only way I can see how 'total hours spent gaming' is worth anything to anybody is if it's a call to advertisers.
Welfare
Member
PS4+XB1 are ahead of the PS3+360 by 47% as of their third December. Hold on a bit for Nintendo.
After 3 calendar years. (Rounding to nearest 10k)
[2007] 360: 9120K
[2008] PS3: 6790K
[2008] Wii: 17540K
Total: 33450K
[2014] WIU: 3660K (-79% from Wii)
[2015] PS4: 12420K (+83% from PS3)
[2015] XB1: 11130K (+22% from 360)
Total: 27210K (-19% from 7th gen)
Thanks, Nintendo.
Because just the UK is much much higher than 10%. Unless you expect the XB1 told have sold well over 20M WW.
anexanhume
Member
It appears Spring is the time for a title release. I wonder if Sony has anything lined up for that time this year...
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
They need a Halo movie. I still can't fathom for the life of me how that hasn't happened yet.
harrisk954
Member
Yeah... that is a consistent decline by close to the same percentage each generation (not including the Wii)... very interesting and does not bode well for Nintendo's future as a console manufacturer. It would be great if Nintendo just made games because that is what it is good at and they could make soooooo much money releasing their older titles on other platforms and making games for other platforms going forward. Unlike Sega, Nintendo has so many IPs that would sell millions upon millions if they ever went that route.
Shouldn't happen. That master chief suit just does not look good in live action. The bits in Forward Unto Dawn where he showed up looked terrible. They would have to update it and at that point, you anger the base.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Now this impresses me.
This gen is holding a hell of a lot better, so far at least, against last gen than I honestly would have expected.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Hmm I never thought about that but your right it would be difficult to translate that to the screen. Would definitely have to make him more lithe.
I'm still bummed the Blomkamp project got dropped. The little bit we got was so damn good.
As far as Halo this year goes, I'm interested to see if Halo 5 has any legs with their plans for free DLC. The population has most certainly wavered, and is usually closer to the bottom than the top of the 10 most played games on XBO.
I'm also wondering how Halo Wars 2 will perform. Obviously it won't have sales like H5, but I think there is a lot of excitement around that title. I hope it's good.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I guess I have to ask, are the sales of 3DS evergreen titles that bad? I figured improvements like much better loading times for Smash (plus being able to use Miiverse, etc.), better graphics in MH4U, etc. would be nice. Or is it just your surprise that the sales this year were about the same as last year without really any major new software?
cartographer
Member
That's about to change for the worse over the next year or so, at least for one of the players.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
That's not as bad as I thought though not particularly good either.
Hopefully by the end of the generation hardware and software sales will meet or beat the previous one.
Handhelds are intrinsically more receptive toward digital seeing as you can't easily take out the game, put it on the shelf, and pull out the next game. I mean, when's the last time you saw a retail box for an iOS game? DS piracy took off not just because of "free games!" but because of "40 games on one cartridge!" It's much easier, if you want to play the games, to not have to be changing out cartridges to play handheld games. I'm not saying it's better or worse than Vita, but 3DS download of full games is not an exception in the last couple of years. Fire Emblem: Awakening was like 33% digital (~80K copies) in its first couple of months, fueled by retail shortages of the game. Animal Crossing was > 100K in its first month of release. Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Monster Hunter - Games you know you're going to spend 100s of hours on, it just makes sense to buy them digitally to not have to switch them out with other games constantly.
If we got fuller NPD software results, we could compare more often the digital vs. physical sales, since Nintendo reports the total. Just from what we have and looking at rankings on 3DS Download-Only chart, digital full game downloads on 3DS is a significant thing for some games, at least.
For a well known AAA franchise across November and December, worldwide, likely including digital?
Even "in a vaccuum" it's downright pathetic imo.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Yeah I'm really excited for HW2 also. I really loved the first game.
gundamkyoukai
Member
That impossible if you are talking about over all.
Wii is to big of a factor for last gen .
Obliterator
Member
The NX will not be a big sales success unless 3rd parties are on board. I've seen many people say "They just need to appeal to the core Nintendo fans and they are fine!" That can't be further from the truth. Nintendo do not have enough core fans in their ecosystem to support a console on their own.
They need 3rd party software and if they aren't doing everything in their power to make that happen then good luck NX
They need 3rd party software and if they aren't doing everything in their power to make that happen then good luck NX
Welfare
Member
Nintendo don't even have a stable core base to support, let alone having enough.
igordennis
Member
In 2006, sure. Nowadays these titles require a much larger amount of sales than that to break even. Like 3-4 million is the bare minimum. And like someone said this was 1 mil WW in the two busiest months of the year, sales will not only go down drastically from here on out, the game will also be discounted heavily (like TR 2013 was). Which will require an even greater amount of copies sold to break even (see how TR 2013 needed something like 7 million to be considered a success to SE)
Obliterator
Member
Yep thats why I'm really curious what their approach is with NX. They dont have a choice anymore, they have to aggressively pursue 3rd party relations
PS2 gen should pull ahead again next month with PS2's December being offset due to its October launch.
They won't, nor would third parties care. They have their market set for this gen and probably next, this will be at best a generation of inroads into fixing the problems.
From numbers Nintendo has provided, we know that big titles have had big digital adoptions. So there's really nothing to say that it isn't similar, and digital on a handheld is considerably more "ease of a solution" than on console. I can play my games on the go without carrying around a case of 3DS games on the off-chance I want to swap. (We had this article last year as well.)
And digital is only getting more and more common place.
ethomaz
Banned
Obliterator
Member
Those days over. They are done. If they aren't trying then write off NX as the next Wii U. Its the same market, Nintendos core fanbase is nowhere near large enough to support a flagship console. We have the Data points to prove this
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Honestly, my end of the gen projections don't scream healthy.
I expect PS4 to top out at around 37 million units in NA, XboxOne to top out at 33, and WiiU at 6 million units. No console is going to top the 360 or Wii, and two are going to top PS3.
A loss of roughly 40 million units gen on gen in the USA.
Obliterator
Member
Every year since launch is the year PS4 and Xbone slow down.
Doesn't really matter, they can't just wave a magic wand and create new demographics on their systems to cater to the narrowing development interests of AAA-developers. This gen is over in that regard, and the NX is too little too late to actually do anything on that front. This is also why the thing isn't being marketed or spoken of as a "flagship console" or a "successor" but as an ecosystem.
Even if they had the most powerful system ever created and powered by space-magic, third parties would see minimals sales and any porting to the system would dry up quickly vs. supporting the existing and catered to audiences on the PS4/X1. There'd simply be no worthwhile RoI unless it suddenly turns out that a bunch of Nintendo faithfuls, close to several million of them, have been biding their time for real support.
Nintendo's only third party strength is in Japan at the moment, and I don't doubt that they will try to swallow up and consolidate as much of that pie as they can (with PC on the side since its not like the west is proving to be some magic bullet for Japan's domestic woes). That will be the niche they have, and they will have to work out from there. Maybe over the remainder of this gen they can make their ecosystem more enticing to non-Nintendo fans. Maybe they can actually succeed in their plans to draw in some of the mobile/extended audiences with their IP plays. Maybe they will start up some more western aligned IP to draw in some of the missing demographic elements for third parties to want to support.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I'm still running off the idea that they won't have the lifespans of PS3/360, nor will have the gargantuan boosts those platforms had. No Kinect or massive price drops.
Even still I expect PS4 to get damn close. Within 7 million units of the last gen market leader, with a three to four year shorter, viable lifespan.
XboxOne will start rapidly falling behind when it catches up to the 360's Kinect factor.
Obliterator
Member
If your assessment is accurate, which I'm not convinced it is, that sounds like a company who should be nowhere near producing hardware.
Welfare
Member
Looking back a bit to the 6th gen.
After 3 calendar years. (Rounding to nearest 10k)
[2002] PS2: 15670K
[2003] XBX: 7760K
[2003] GCN: 6820K
Total: 30250K
[2014] WIU: 3660K (-46% from GCN)
[2015] PS4: 12420K (-21% from PS2)
[2015] XB1: 11130K (+43% from XBX)
Total: 27210K (-10% from 6th gen)
Once again, thanks Nintendo
After 3 calendar years. (Rounding to nearest 10k)
[2002] PS2: 15670K
[2003] XBX: 7760K
[2003] GCN: 6820K
Total: 30250K
[2014] WIU: 3660K (-46% from GCN)
[2015] PS4: 12420K (-21% from PS2)
[2015] XB1: 11130K (+43% from XBX)
Total: 27210K (-10% from 6th gen)
Once again, thanks Nintendo
and Sony Too™
cartographer
Member
Less about change in this generation and more about last.
I don't agree. They are effectively the only hope for a "healthy" domestic market in Japan at this point (and one they really should spread into the surrounding territories), and they still have a chance at courting a sustainable handheld+console environment WW if their unified ecosystem plans prove fruitful and well executed (on top of the other things I mentioned of expanding their brand awareness/IP). I do however think it will be a slow burn on that front, and that they will be hoping to succeed in other fronts while damage is repaired... if it can be repaired.
I'd have agreed with you had the WiiU/Vita been their products, but since the 3DS is a device that was developed pre-boom and somehow still managed to consolidate *some* sort of market, then I'd be curious to see what a post-boom handheld might be able to do. Maybe it will catastrophically crash, maybe it won't. The retail space really shrank for the 3DS but still, of the big titles it brought to market, things still sold (and you'll note that I do believe the 3DS has a larger than nominal digital/retail ratio as it is a platform that benefits from it moreso than a console) and the hardware keeps somehow selling in what has been a dead year.
We'll have a better idea on that end come February when we get some more numbers from them, though.
I feel like the earliest they could get western big third party games AND have decent sales would be 2 generations from now tbh. The first generation would be hardware that shows "hey we're here and not weird." Then the console generation after that would have a new generation of gamers and rewards could be reaped then, assuming that next generation was up to date with the competition as well.
So it'd basically take at least like a decade imo lol. For the next wave of gamers.
I think you meant XBX.
Anyway a while back I replied to your post on Nov/Dec data will additional figures all the way back to 2005. Don't know if you're seen it.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I really don't see how they are the hope of the domestic market in Japan .
That market is a dead , mobile has taken over and it not coming back .
Allong with all it's other problems .
That's the clear picture that this generation in US isn't doing so great. There's no Wii in 6th gen to try to minimize the lower sales.
Welfare
Member
Always forgetting to change something! Thanks.
I saw the post and I have that data as well. I started at 2010 for the comparison because 1. I'm lazy to go back that far, and 2. 2010 is the most recent year that December was a better month than November, period, and that years prior to that, imo, should not be used for this type of analysis because the economy was a different situation pre 2009.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Not but X1 and PS4 should cover those sales rather easy .
It's not like XBX or GC going to add much more to the total amount in the upcoming years .
So yeah you lose some sales but not by a big amount but it does show there has been no growth and more consolidation .
sono
Gold Member
You can watch halo based film today on Netflix?
That Spielberg thing is still supposedly coming. After #HuntTheTruth, I'm very interested in how they could tell possibly a smaller story in the Halo universe.
Even though Nightfall was not well received, most of Halo Legends and Forward Unto Dawn is looked at pretty fondly, even my friend who has little interest in Halo saw FUD on Netflix and thought it was really good. There's potential here.
i expect a bigger collapse from last gen due to losing the kinect crowd/boost ps4 competition.
PanicFreak
Member
I'm wondering what Microsoft does after Halo 6. Halo 6 is locked in stone but I could see a scenario where 343i refocuses if Halo 6 sees further declines in total revenue.