It's something some of Nintendo GAF tell themselves in order to convince each other NX will be competitive on a hardware basis. Basically "saying makes it so" school of thought. It's been a trend with everything involving these console upgrades and 4.5 stuff. I have a hard time picturing any of them actually believe it but they really really want to. At least that's my theory anyway.
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NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
It's something some of Nintendo GAF tell themselves in order to convince each other NX will be competitive on a hardware basis. Basically "saying makes it so" school of thought. It's been a trend with everything involving these console upgrades and 4.5 stuff. I have a hard time picturing any of them actually believe it but they really really want to. At least that's my theory anyway.
Welfare
Member
Wait, really?
Either a massive troll or just some wishful thinking that Nintendo is on Sony's mind.
At first I thought it was a joke.
But some Nintendo fans really think nx is gonna be the next big thing.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
I really hope people do not think that. If so... lawd.
Xbox has been struggling this year so far.
Microsoft is trying to keep things afloat with the new price cut to 299$ (although retailers like Amazon were selling the console at that price even before) or the recent trade-in deals.
But I don't think the impact is going to be significant. Seems like market has lost interest in the product. New Xbox revision coming out later this year seems the only thing that could revitalize interest, assuming price is not higher than 399$.
Unfortunately I think so. Anyway it'll be interesting to see what NX really is and how Sony will manage this "new PS4 thing".
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
If its only now that you are realising that Nintendo has some delusional fans on this site I dont know what to tell you.
Notice the consoles are dead/Games are hitting dimminsing returns talk has become noticably become quieter too? Same shit.
Im still convinced personally that the NX, console version at least, wont launch this year but ehh.
Welfare
Member
Do I have to repeat myself again.
Amazon will not be an accurate representation of how well the Xbox One is doing for this month and April.
The Gears of War bundle looks to have very low stock, and the next popular sku, the $298 Name Your Game bundle, is currently #104. Pretty bad, right? Yes, for Amazon, not the XB1.
How can that be?
Well, in order to know the future, you must learn from the past.
In March 2015, there was no special deal going on, and the only potential hardware impacting game was Hardline, and that is a big potentially since it only sold ~430k. 236k XB1's were sold that month, or 47,200 units a week (236,000 / 5). In April 2015, there were two noticeable deals. One at Gamestop, which was a $125 Trade in deal, lasting 3 weeks, bringing the XB1 down to $224. The other was a one week deal at Best Buy, and the TiD was $175, making the XB1 $175. These deals actually held the XB1's weekly average going into April. In April 2015, the XB1 sold 187k units, or a weekly average of 46,750 (187,000 / 4). That is a -1% change, when March to April drops are in the 30% range, so that is really impressive.
Now then, what about the present? What did the past have to do with why XB1 sales would slow rapidly at Amazon? Is the XB1 DOOMED?
Well, look down.
Look at that. Just look and study the contents of that pic for just a bit.
Not only is the $50 price drop in effect at Gamestop, there is a $100 trade in deal, bringing the price of a 500GB sku to $199 and a 1TB sku to $249. That combo started on March 21st, and lasts until April 24th, or 2 weeks in the March NPD and 3 weeks in the April NPD.
That is insane, and as this deal spreads around, less and less will look to Amazon to buy an XB1. We are seeing these effects right now. Remember, Amazon represents only a small percentage of the whole video game market in the US, something like 6%. Gamestop is easily at least 5 (most likely more) times as big as them when it comes to sales, so when a big deal like this is done at the biggest retailer for video games and it's in store only, we won't see how well it does until April 14th, the day NPD releases the March results.
However, we can already see an inkling of this since XB1 Amazon sales have never been this low, and a $50 price cut would not have 0 effect, or even a negative effect, so outside forces have to be at play.
Amazon will not be an accurate representation of how well the Xbox One is doing for this month and April.
The Gears of War bundle looks to have very low stock, and the next popular sku, the $298 Name Your Game bundle, is currently #104. Pretty bad, right? Yes, for Amazon, not the XB1.
How can that be?
Well, in order to know the future, you must learn from the past.
In March 2015, there was no special deal going on, and the only potential hardware impacting game was Hardline, and that is a big potentially since it only sold ~430k. 236k XB1's were sold that month, or 47,200 units a week (236,000 / 5). In April 2015, there were two noticeable deals. One at Gamestop, which was a $125 Trade in deal, lasting 3 weeks, bringing the XB1 down to $224. The other was a one week deal at Best Buy, and the TiD was $175, making the XB1 $175. These deals actually held the XB1's weekly average going into April. In April 2015, the XB1 sold 187k units, or a weekly average of 46,750 (187,000 / 4). That is a -1% change, when March to April drops are in the 30% range, so that is really impressive.
Now then, what about the present? What did the past have to do with why XB1 sales would slow rapidly at Amazon? Is the XB1 DOOMED?
Well, look down.
Look at that. Just look and study the contents of that pic for just a bit.
Not only is the $50 price drop in effect at Gamestop, there is a $100 trade in deal, bringing the price of a 500GB sku to $199 and a 1TB sku to $249. That combo started on March 21st, and lasts until April 24th, or 2 weeks in the March NPD and 3 weeks in the April NPD.
That is insane, and as this deal spreads around, less and less will look to Amazon to buy an XB1. We are seeing these effects right now. Remember, Amazon represents only a small percentage of the whole video game market in the US, something like 6%. Gamestop is easily at least 5 (most likely more) times as big as them when it comes to sales, so when a big deal like this is done at the biggest retailer for video games and it's in store only, we won't see how well it does until April 14th, the day NPD releases the March results.
However, we can already see an inkling of this since XB1 Amazon sales have never been this low, and a $50 price cut would not have 0 effect, or even a negative effect, so outside forces have to be at play.
ethomaz
Banned
The deal is not insane because last year the deals were better.
Good deal but not insane.
Good deal but not insane.
Nintendo fans believe that.
Welfare
Member
$199 at the biggest retailer is the best deal the XB1 has gotten.
Notice me, Tolu Senpai.
Tbh, all I see is the same old tired bundle with the same old tired games that has been iterated on for the better part of a year in multiple ways with multiple discounts, gift cards, extra games, and bonus content.
You probably have a point, of course, but I can see it as well that a $50 price drop at this point may have just plain not done much of anything at all to sales.
ethomaz
Banned
$175 last year in April and June... that makes $199 not the best deal.
Omnistalgic
Member
i see your point. But X1 has has incredible deals like that before. Had a flash sale basically one holiday. I could see it not having much impact. It could as well, I'm 50/50 on it.
That's basically what i think. Microsoft made A LOT of those deals... let's be serius, a lot of people already bought an XB1 for $299... or even less... sells XB1 for $349 is just a suicide, at this point. We have seen of bad it could sell in a low month like January, and April / May are even worse.
$299 should not be a good deal, should be the standart for XB1 at this point. I expect this promotion to help but nothing insane... still down MOM compared to February, but not by a lot.
Last year the MOM drop was -15%, i can see a -5% drop this time, or about flat at best to ~250,000.
Xbone is 299$ since beginning of the February, 50$ cheaper than PS4. And what happened? You think that Gamestop trade-in deal will bring victory to Xbone in March and April?
Welfare
Member
This is not about it doing more than the PS4. It's about how Xbox sales are not plummeting just because a retailer is seeing lowered sales because a much better deal is happening at a B&M store.
i doubt that would be factor. dark souls audience is not on xbox
The Gamestop deal might be a factor, certainly.
But trade-ins are nothing new for Gamestop (wasn't there a $150 trade in previously?), and to my knowledge have never created a huge wave of adoption.
We shall see, but I think that the trend of being down yoy is likely to continue tbh.
But trade-ins are nothing new for Gamestop (wasn't there a $150 trade in previously?), and to my knowledge have never created a huge wave of adoption.
We shall see, but I think that the trend of being down yoy is likely to continue tbh.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I saw it earlier too and I was about to respond to the person but I just let it go. It wasn't worth it since that person may have been convinced what they were saying was legit.
As it was said above, it is probably in order to legitimize the NX before it even launches. A way to get Nintendo in the conversation after they have been out of it for a while now.
I would be surprised if the Xbox is under 240K this month with the current deals & White QB bundle. I think its sales will be in between March 2015 and March 2014 -- so around 250K-300K.
Anyway, I don't know what the NX -vs.- PS4(.5) and Xbox One(.5) stuff is about. Just seems to be from REALLY BIG Nintendo fans, Playstation haters, and Xbox haters (or a mix of two or three of them).
Not sure how people can think the NX is a "threat" and could greatly hurt the other consoles with such conviction considering Nintendo's current position when it comes to third party support -- support which makes up at least 80% of the most popular current gen console games.
I think people should not underestimate the NX.
Let's say that i'm not one of who believe the PS4.5 is for make a competition with NX and all shit, but i think people should not totally exclude it from the general competition.
Another console in the market always mean more competition, even if is a bit difference compared to XB1 or PS4.
I don't think NX is gonna hurt PS4 too, but you get what i mean... and i also think is too soon for talk about 0 third party support
but guess we will see.
Let's say that i'm not one of who believe the PS4.5 is for make a competition with NX and all shit, but i think people should not totally exclude it from the general competition.
Another console in the market always mean more competition, even if is a bit difference compared to XB1 or PS4.
I don't think NX is gonna hurt PS4 too, but you get what i mean... and i also think is too soon for talk about 0 third party support
but guess we will see.CosmicQueso
Member
I think people should not underestimate the NX.
Let's say that i'm not one of who believe the PS4.5 is for make a competition with NX and all shit, but i think people should not totally exclude it from the general competition.
Another console in the market always mean more competition, even if is a bit difference compared to XB1 or PS4.
I don't think NX is gonna hurt PS4 too, but you get what i mean... and i also think is too soon for talk about 0 third party support
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBDi0iM2kcU
"Did i ever tell you the definition... of insanity?"
Man i freaking love this game.
slavesnyder
Member
The question isn't if Sony or MS announced (or let rumours loose) about incremental stuff because of NX. That's foolish.
There's something more interesting here.
We got info about MS ideas about an incremental Xbox, and shortly after about quite similar plans from Sony. This is astonishing as suddenly both might do something nearly simultaneously that has never been done before (a mid-gen hardware update that's not just cosmetical).
1) Is this incremental stuff something that was planned from the start of this gen? Or was it something that became possible/necessary down the road?
2) If the latter: Who came up with this and who followed? Or was the same plan born seperately, simultaneously and isolated? Note: just because we heard it first from MS does not mean it was their idea.
3) will the focus of hardware update be the same and who will have the better box?
4) Do we expect updated boxes from both in the near future? XboxOne.5 announcement at E3 would make a lot of sense (if they are still willing to invest). Ps4.5 would only make sense to counter MS. Otherwise they should concentrate on VR.
There's something more interesting here.
We got info about MS ideas about an incremental Xbox, and shortly after about quite similar plans from Sony. This is astonishing as suddenly both might do something nearly simultaneously that has never been done before (a mid-gen hardware update that's not just cosmetical).
1) Is this incremental stuff something that was planned from the start of this gen? Or was it something that became possible/necessary down the road?
2) If the latter: Who came up with this and who followed? Or was the same plan born seperately, simultaneously and isolated? Note: just because we heard it first from MS does not mean it was their idea.
3) will the focus of hardware update be the same and who will have the better box?
4) Do we expect updated boxes from both in the near future? XboxOne.5 announcement at E3 would make a lot of sense (if they are still willing to invest). Ps4.5 would only make sense to counter MS. Otherwise they should concentrate on VR.
Welfare
Member
Incremental hardware has definitely been in R&D for some time. It would actually make sense for MS to have it in mind if they were to stick with the XB1 being an entertainment device. Why wait 6 years to put out a 4k media device that plays games much better when you can put one out in 3 years with 4k media support that plays games somewhat better?
CosmicQueso
Member
4K displays got really cheap really fast. Not sure that was expected back in 2011, when these boxes were getting the designs down.
Actually, disagree strongly there. Sony's greater interests in pushing 4K TVs and UHD Blu-Ray standards far outweigh PSVR this holiday.
I think these concepts go way beyond the gaming markets.
Yeah, I wouldn't immediately dismiss NX's potential by stating it's doomed or sort of already, honestly, since we know basically nothing about its initial lineup, price, whatever idea it will feature (alongside the quite possible concept of family of systems), how their errors with both 3DS and (vastly more) on Wii U affected their sales, etc.etc. In the same way I wouldn't immediatly overvalue NX's potential considering Nintendo's current state in both home and handheld markets (and the state of the handheld market itself), how their (possible) errors with NX could affect the new machine's sales, etc.etc. Personally, I'm potentially optimistic, but we need concrete infos first to form a better informed opinion on it.
Also, if PS4K is coming this Holiday, it's not for NX. Sony surely is not thinking about NX in making such a decision, I don't get where that line-of-thinking's base comes from.
Also, if PS4K is coming this Holiday, it's not for NX. Sony surely is not thinking about NX in making such a decision, I don't get where that line-of-thinking's base comes from.
El-Pistolero
Member
Let them dream!*
* No offense to Nintendo fans.
Just realized that there were enough PSVR bundle pre-orders to take it to #13 on the Amazon charts.
Impressive.
By the same token, the No Man's Sky and Uncharted 4 pre-orders appear impressive, and Ratchet and Clank is above Quantum Break at Amazon.
Do we have any info whatsoever on Quantum Break pre-orders overall? It seemed posed to completely dominate the first half of the Xbox One and there's certainly a ton of buzz. But is it converting?
Impressive.
By the same token, the No Man's Sky and Uncharted 4 pre-orders appear impressive, and Ratchet and Clank is above Quantum Break at Amazon.
Do we have any info whatsoever on Quantum Break pre-orders overall? It seemed posed to completely dominate the first half of the Xbox One and there's certainly a ton of buzz. But is it converting?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
It will still be an easy win for PS4.
I think maybe you didnt understand my post. Basically the exploit will skew the already small XB1 userbase towards digital making the retail split even more stark in PS4s favor. That's absolutely certain. We just have no idea of knowing how much.
Nah hes right. The sale wll definitely have an impact. We underestimated the impact of similar sales lat year in April. But I'm not convinced it will be as big this time around. We shall see.
That said Welfare its really bizarre how worked up you are getting at people posting Amazon figures seeing as how it happens every single month. You seem to be actually getting angry at people for doing something that has become commonplace in sales threads. I have a tendency to do the same some times (especially with "consoles are DOOMED" posts) so from one emotionally charged poster to another: perhaps its time to take a breather. It will be ok. In the end the truth will out.
Welfare
Member
Maybe that post could've been taken down a notch or 10, but it was really just a way for me to try and inform that Amazon can't always be looked at to determine how well something is doing, especially in a time where you can get the system for 33% cheaper at another retailer than this online store.
It kinda annoys me when someone looks at Amazon, sees the XB1 (it could be any system, not just Xbox) doing "bad", and try and use that as confirmation that it will actually do worse than before. I mean, there is evidence that these deals actually have a positive effect on sales, and combine that with a $50 price, if the system is doing worse than it has ever done before on Amazon after a price cut, there has to be something else to it.
But yes, you're right. There's only one truth and one truth prevails.
Its been hinted that 3rd parties are not thrilled with the current hw available in these consoles and, if true, they are likely pushing for a rapid turnover. We know for a fact that UE4 was developed with a significantly higher TF rating for graphics in mind and we are already seeing developers having to scale back their games or having sever issues with performance. Just the impression I'm getting from what we've been seeing thus far this gen form 3rd parties.
Given the above is accurate I could see a marginal boost but the architecture and cost restraints will be incredibly limiting. As such I would be very surprised if erformance scales anywhere near 2x what we currently have. We are more likely looking at 1.3x to 1.75x current CPU/GPU throughput. Anything more than that would be way too expensive for current x86 architecure (which would exclude Polaris btw).
I'm not sure we have any way of knowing who started R&D first but I really dont think it matters. Personally, I think its a terrible idea simply because of how risky it is. There is a lot of potential to completely screw the pooch and destroy consumer approval/confidence. I really dont think they have the prescience/luck it would require to come out of this unscathed.
But to answer your questions:
I'm of the mind its a reaction to the less favorable HW (in comparison to PC) in these consoles and how it has met (or in my estimations not met) the demands or desires of third party developers. But we honestly have no way of knowing whether or not this incremental idea was considered and accounted for in the initial design of these consoles. An argument could be made that the switch to x86 is a strong sign that it was in the cards. I think thats about the only evidence we have on the matter.
I really dont think this matters at all. What will matter is the execution and I honestly have serious doubts either can pull this off without serious repercussions to consumer confidence in their products.
Since the main reason for the update is the boost in hardware capability I wuld imagine the focus on performance would likely be even more pronounced than we've seen thus far this gen. But thats strictly an educated guess on my part.
Eh I'm not convinced that the PS4.5's only reason for existence is a counter. It could very well be PSVR that was a main driving factor in this push for more powerful HW. We know VR is very demanding and sets a mandatory high bar for performance. Personally, I think we are seeing HW manufacturers look at the profits and short cycles present in the mobile market and wanting a piece of that pie. But I don't think they are understand how much this undermines the main driving factor for why many buy consoles in the first place.
Uhhh. They still seem pretty damn expensive to me. But its cool I'm waiting for an OLED TV to be available at less extravagant price. The difference there is way more evident than 1080 to 4k imho.
I dont think anybody has said NX is doomed we said it will not be competitive with whatever MS and Sony's iterative HW turns out to be HW spec wise. The two statements are not even remotely the same.
Astral Dog
Member
Its foolish to think this PS4.5/new Xbox ONE is somehow an answer to the NX, that shit was planned for years not to build up more console wars.
I don't see any dream in my comment...
Welfare
Member
There are 4k's in the $399-$599 range. Much cheaper than previous years.
spatenfloot
Member
It seems obvious that this incremental upgrade path was the plan all along once we saw that MS and Sony were moving to a more PC like architecture. The Xbox 2.0 and PS 5 will likely just be more powerful versions of the same consoles (unless MS does something about that awful memory config).
I also think NX does not factor much into either company's plans and will probably be slightly less powerful than the current consoles.
Also, NX is doomed.
I also think NX does not factor much into either company's plans and will probably be slightly less powerful than the current consoles.
Also, NX is doomed.
But they have seriously horrendous contrast ratios and image quality in comparison to the other higher priced models. In that respect its different from the drop we saw with 1080p as we saw relatively high quality sets drop into an affordable range whereas the current crop of affordable 4k tvs are of significantly lesser quality than the higher priced models currently on the market.
But you are right lower priced models do exist. Its just that, personally, I would never consider buying the current crop of lower priced 4k tvs. They offer too much in the way of compromises in image quality for their lower price tag. so to me they might as well not exist. The same was absoltely not the case when it came to the initial waves of more affordably priced 1080p sets.
P.S. I like how your response to a reference to Shakespeare was to reference Detective Conan
Not everyday you see the two together. Hehe
Adding more power to the ps4 and XBO in response to NX doesn't make sense unless you believe that the NX will have more graphical horsepower than the current iterations and these planned performance bumps would close that gap.
I personally don't expect the NX home console to even be on par with our current consoles graphically, so I scoff a bit when I read those posts.
I'll be sure to eat crow when proven wrong at E3.
I personally don't expect the NX home console to even be on par with our current consoles graphically, so I scoff a bit when I read those posts.
I'll be sure to eat crow when proven wrong at E3.
CosmicQueso
Member
I hear you brother. But think a bit about Joe Rustbelt consumer, shopping at Walmart. Box says 4K, the price is right, that's what gets bought. A majority of consumers don't care or know the difference in the techno mumbo jumbo you're saying.
Adoption rates of 4K TVs are way beyond anything the available content would make reasonable.
Been a while since Sony had a new format to push like UHD Blu Ray too.
In any case, I doubt existing PS4 owners with a 1080p set will be at all disadvantaged by this.
They have to market this new box basically perfectly. Make it sound like a worthwhile upgrade without alienating the existing base. Sony marketers will be earning their money this year that's for sure.
You also have to believe the NX is this year.
Welfare
Member
I had to haha. Not everyday you can reference it.
I wasn't even sure anyone would get it, but I'm glad you did.
Yea...Marketing ruins everything. People are buying things they have no need or understanding of because of marketing taglines and the saddest part is it actually deincentivizes higher quality premium tech like OLED. Theres just no way to compete with a marketing tagline attached to a low price when the market is so overwhelmingly uninformed.
Out of curiousity where are you seeing this information about widespread uncharacteristic adoption for 4k sets? Not that I doubt you. It certainly wouldn't surprise me. I've just not seen anything about it myself.
True but I thought UHD Bluray was compatible with most modern bluray players so there was little need for marketing to spur adoption. Maybe I'm wrong though.
If it means better performance at 1080p as well then it will be seen as such by much of the core demographic. That much has been proven by the reaction to the rumors so far. My own included.
Like I said before its borderline impossible to pull this off. The marketing would have to be literally flawless. I dont like those chances. Much more likely that serious damage will be done to consumer approval/confidence.
We should find out soon whether it is or not as theyll have to mention in their briefing if its coming this year. I myself think it will be.
CosmicQueso
Member
Blame Don Draper.
Can't share that. But, honestly? Any adoption of 4k TVs right now seems a bit crazy given how little content is out there. And I didn't say that adoption of 4k sets was widespread or uncharacteristic against other tech. Said adoption is way beyond anything the available content would make reasonable.
Big if.
Well now it is very tough, certainly. Can't imagine this is the way they wanted this to get out there. Sure someone must have had a communication plan somewhere that would have avoided most of the conversation, but I guess we'll never know.
Indeed. We'll just have to watch if they say calendar or fiscal year.
Point taken.
Is it? If something has better hw to run games at higher resolutions then it stands to reason that it would perform better at lower reoslutions than its predecessor. For example it could potentially mean the difference in framepacing issues vs no framepacing issues and a completely locked frametrate for Dark Souls 3. Ditto for any games that have an unlocked framerate (which is most).
Yea no doubt whatsoever this spoiled some PR timelines. Will be interesting seeing how they handle it.
EDIT: Relevant Info regarding 4K TV sales
Source