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[Lynn616]

So... YoY drops from the numbers we have, correct me if wrong.

360 seems to be -82%?
PS3 -70%

3DS - Down, no idea of %
WiiU - Down, no idea of %

Even going 5 weeks to 4, this is fucking terrible.

On top of that one new console doing 143k and the other < 286k?

Just one big clusterfuck, all of it.

Is it that bad? Retail is only down 1%.

 

[Guymelef]

I wonder why no media has news about awful NPD numbers.

 

[jiminycracken]

The conversations at MSFT are most likely:

"Let's put out a press release saying we are investing another $500 million for our commitment to the product - this is a marketing issue and we have to responnd"

"Let's call Goldman's TMT guys and see if they can find a buyer or recommend the best time to spin off the unit and take as much cash as we can off the table"'

"Let's put that cash into Surface Pro 5 with 1.2 Teraflops and compatibility with all PC games and get Xbox One users to transition in a few years"

"Let's save one platform (Windows) that makes money and consolidate our users there, rather than dividing our users across two"

Microsoft doesn't innovate out of situations, it buys its way out or kills the whole project altogether.

There is tremendous pressure on the new CEO to make a decisive commitment to Windows and either double-down on saving it and perhaps forcing Xbox users onto Surface - or going all-in on Enterprise.

In either case the Xbox experiment doesn't have a high probability of surviving past this generation.

I'd buy a reasonably priced gaming Surface.

 

[allan-bh]

since we all like our 2007 comparisons

1. 360 LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION 329k

That's only standard ed. LP sold almost 409k

 

[anexanhume]

Not a single new game on that list unless you are willing to call Tomb Raider DE for PS4bone "new".

No game on that list was new in December either. It's just a drought right now.

 

[sueil]

Shockingly there is no such thing as infinite growth and markets do shrink. I get the feeling Microsoft will pull out of consoles before Nintendo does. Xbox has been a money pit since day one.

 

[AniHawk]

Hi

hello

 

[Mory Dunz]

I cannot believe people think the 360 and the PS3 are going to do another 25% of their current LTD's.... Like.... they are totally not gonna sell another 20+ million. That gen was long as hell, people are going to move on very quickly.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in the "did wii win" thread. Last gen sales were never going to keep going at the same rate. As for passing the Wii, 40 new million consoles sold starting now that aren't the PS4 or X1? Yeah right....

But on topic:
3DS is dying...help, Rusty.

 

[Griss]

The conversations at MSFT are most likely:

"Let's put out a press release saying we are investing another $500 million for our commitment to the product - this is a marketing issue and we have to responnd"

"Let's call Goldman's TMT guys and see if they can find a buyer or recommend the best time to spin off the unit and take as much cash as we can off the table"'

"Let's put that cash into Surface Pro 5 with 1.2 Teraflops and compatibility with all PC games and get Xbox One users to transition in a few years"

"Let's save one platform (Windows) that makes money and consolidate our users there, rather than dividing our users across two"

Microsoft doesn't innovate out of situations, it buys its way out or kills the whole project altogether.

There is tremendous pressure on the new CEO to make a decisive commitment to Windows and either double-down on saving it and perhaps forcing Xbox users onto Surface - or going all-in on Enterprise.

In either case the Xbox experiment doesn't have a high probability of surviving past this generation.

I'd agree with almost all of this, but I think the Xbox project will survive due to inertia.

They aren't going to sell Xbox to anyone as there's hardly anyone capable of buying it and running it bar Samsung and one or two other tech firms, and there's no reason that any of those firms would want a loss-making business in an area (under-TV box) no longer seen as mission-critical.

At the same time, I really feel like Xbox is too big to kill outright. Too many employees, and too much bad publicity among young men if you kill it.

So while it won't be any kind of priority, I think it'll limp along for the rest of the gen as best they can. When it comes to next gen, that will entirely depend on where we stand, and we can't see that yet. Xbox might become a service streamed to TVs from Surface tablets or something like that. I agree that we may never see a proper successor to Xbox, but far too much is left to play out to make any kind of prediction there.

I think the biggest point, though, is that Xbox was Microsoft's trojan into the living room, and the battle ended up shifting to people's pockets and personal screens. There's not much point in fielding an army to a battlefield you no longer believe is important.

 

[pieatorium]

That's only standard ed. LP sold almost 409k

I'm sure cod sold more than 330k including digital too. It's all kind of moot anyway since the biggest game of Jan 07 wasn't even mentioned by NPD

 

[Aquamarine]

Is it that bad? Retail is only down 1%.

Nintendo's retail sales are down 83% from December and down 34% from last January.

 

[damisa]

Can a mod add this to the OP:
270K < PS4 < 272K
140K < Xbox One < 142K
48K < Wii U < 50K

 

[reptilescorpio]

Nintendo's retail sales are down 83% from December and down 34% from last January.

I hope digital makes up a decent portion of that

 

[HigherLevel]

So much overreaction. Gaming is fine. Console sales may go down slightly but not enough to worry. There is just a lack of software to drive people to spend a lot of money on new consoles. If sales are like this in the fall(which they won't be), then you can actually worry.

 

[pieatorium]

Can a mod add this to the OP:
270K < PS4 < 272K
140K < Xbox One < 142K
48K < Wii U < 50K

only official statements or math based of those go in the op

leaks stay in the thread

 

[jedimike]

I really wonder how DD is effecting NPD most people i know buying stuff on DD for next gen .
And in the future it going to have a bigger impact even so more on certain types of games for eg fighting .

Exactly. NPD game sales are rather meaningless in the DD age. I buy a lot of games and although I'm not 100% digital, I'm heading that way. If people are spending 30% of their gaming dollars on DD, it will make NPD look depressing.

 

[damisa]

only official statements or math based of those go in the op

leaks stay in the thread

I didn't know this, good to know.

 

[njean777]

The issue is first gen modern gamers like me are retiring and less kids are picking up the hobbie because of mobile and FTP browser games. So it is a slow net loss over time which we are really seeing. Only 1 title over 100k that bad bad bad.

Or maybe everybody spent their christmas load and not everybody can go out and buy games right now? Still a little early to be crystal balling.

 

[AniHawk]

Shockingly there is no such thing as infinite growth and markets do shrink. I get the feeling Microsoft will pull out of consoles before Nintendo does. Xbox has been a money pit since day one.

i wonder if amazon would just eat up all the xbox stuff up if it came down to it.

 

[Replicant]

Amazing. Software sales too. I said this before...but are many ppl really doing in depth research about games? Tomb Raider for the PS4 outselling the XBO version? Does Sony have that big of a lead in console sales...or did ppl actually do research about the game or specs of each console?

It's the social media. When MS decided to screw over the customers, everyone in the know went to social media and blasted the Hell out of MS. No amount of PR can salvage awful word-of-mouth. MS thought they can treat the customers like dirt and they'll just come back and eat up what they offer. They're wrong. Everyone in the know informs their family and friends about MS' fuck-ups and their attempt at coverup and deceptions. Their family/friends told other family/friends and so on and so forth.

A long time ago a company's bad deed is filtered between traditional media (which will censored things based on their self-interest as shown by various gaming media's pro MS slant before MS' turnaround) and the mass audience. But with social media in play, information is no longer dripped from one channel but from various sources, most of which have far more influence over the general mass because those sources are their trusted family and friends.

 

[Respawn]

They want to play the games on it?

The only real problems with the Xbox One are the confusing and buggy party system and skewed price/performance ratio. The kinect is worthless to anyone that just wants to play games. An SKU without it and a price reflecting the hardware relative to PS4 would do wonders.

Realistically though, I think they can only match the PS4's price. IIRC, the Xbox hardware isn't cheap because of the ESRAM.

This post... So parts in the PS4 are cheap?

 

[pieatorium]

Titanfall shuldnt be looked at as the big indicator either. If destiny doesn't do gangbusters with the full might of ACTI behind it that will be the real alarm bell

 

[HigherLevel]

I'm sure this has been brought up in regards to the "consoles are dead" stuff, but have we forgotten GTAV and it's like 32+ million copies sold in the last 6 months?

 

[allan-bh]

I wonder if 3DS sold less than 100k.

 

[Opiate]

Or maybe everybody spent their christmas load and not everybody can go out and buy games right now? Still a little early to be crystal balling.

That's possible. We'll need to wait for more data to see.

Also, I think it's weird to suggest that kids playing iOS games aren't "picking up the hobby." They are, they just aren't necessarily playing games like their parents did. Times change; it happens.

 

[rokkerkory]

since we all like our 2007 comparisons

1. 360 LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION 329k

i loved this game *kaching* when you got a head shot in MP

unexpected but lovely MP

 

[Loudninja]

Upcoming games for the PS4:

Feb:
Thief
Rayman Legends

March:
inFAMOUS: Second Son
Putty Squad
Dynasty Warriors 8
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes

April:
Final Fantasy XIV: A REALM REBORN

May:
MLB 14: The show

 

[nib95]

If retail has only contracted 1%, surely that signals an overall growth for console gaming, since digital sales would presumably have gone up a greater percentage?

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

2009 though. Budgets increased since then. Both UC3 and TLoU were more expensive for example.

What was the budget for UC3 and TLoU? I'm just finding it hard to believe that cost of making UC3 is much higher than UC2 since it's only been released 2 years later.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

300K doesn't seem especially great either.

LOL. I'd say it's pretty good when you are supply constrained because you are kicking ass all over the UK and Europe and stockpiling hundreds if thousands of units for the Japan launch.

 

[pretty done]

Nintendo's retail sales are down 83% from December and down 34% from last January.

I don't see how that equates to "CONSOLE GAMING IS DEAD." like most people in here seem to think

Maybe Nintendo console gaming is dead, but PS4 seems to be pretty healthy and is getting a bunch of games this year from basically every third party that matters. People just like to spread doom when their favorite company is getting boned to make it seem like everyone is doomed. Gaming will be fine as long as platforms like PS4 and PC exist and continue to thrive. Nintendo ain't that important.

 

[pieatorium]

i wonder if amazon would just eat up all the xbox stuff up if it came down to it.

I don't know if anyone would want the whole shibang but there would likely be serious competition for the individual parts

 

[outunderthestars]

I hope digital makes up a decent portion of that

Didn't they say their digital sales were less than 10%? Nintendo is failing badly at this point in the generation.

 

[Jamix012]

If retail has only contracted 1%, surely that signals an overall growth for console gaming, since digital sales would presumably have gone up a greater percentage?

Probably very minor, but yes. Brilliant. The industry is up slightly over the disasterous 2013 with 2 new consoles in the mix.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

With the included HDD there is no chance of the PS3 getting to sub $100 PS2-like pricing. It just isn't possible.

True. I still see a $149 PS3 selling several millions in emerging markets.

 

[Aquamarine]

Lower-than-usual NPD sales are bad for brick-and-mortar retailers like Amazon or GameStop.

 

[damisa]

If retail has only contracted 1%, surely that signals an overall growth for console gaming, since digital sales would presumably have gone up a greater percentage?

Not necessarily, Xbox one and PS4 are both much more expensive than older systems. So less total units sold can still mean more revenue.

 

[Opiate]

If retail has only contracted 1%, surely that signals an overall growth for console gaming, since digital sales would presumably have gone up a greater percentage?

1% Year over year, mind you. I'm not sure how much better revenue should be in the-PS4-Xbone-just-launched 2014 January vs. PS3-360-are-slowly-dying 2013 january, but probably it should be higher even with retail declining overall. Probably. Maybe not.

It's not that this month is particularly bad for PS4 or even Xbone, in my opinion. But theoretically they should be picking up the slack left by the bomb that is the Wii U, and at least in this month, they certainly didn't do that. We'll need more data to see if that's a long term trend.

 

[Toki767]

Hmm...so with the PS4 launch in Japan next week, it seems pretty likely that we'll be getting a "5 million PS4s sold" statement from Sony before we get a "4 million Xbox Ones sold" statement from Microsoft. I wonder how long it'll take Microsoft to hit 4 million.

 

[demosthenes]

Lower-than-usual NPD sales are bad for brick-and-mortar retailers like Amazon or GameStop.

I think you made a mistake in this statement.

 

[nib95]

Probably very minor, but yes. Brilliant. The industry is up slightly over the disasterous 2013 with 2 new consoles in the mix.

Was 2013 really that disastrous though? Weren't multiple records set? For COD, for GTA and even for exclusive new IP's like Last of Us?

I mean, sure hardware was down, but that happens at the end of a generation, and these new consoles at these high prices, and smaller games catalogues were never going to appeal to anything more than the hardcore market, and least not for a while anyway. Till later price drops or major releases.

I think the Xbox One and PS4 (namely the latter, despite being supply constrained) setting records already shows even in hardcore gaming, the market is still healthy.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

Wow so after a record setting launch, Sony is still tracking above PS3 levels and have yet to even launch in Japan. Impressive?

yes, very impressive.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Xbox One LTD is still behind Wii U LTD....hahaha

Cranky Kong is sure to sell gangbusters with that install base

Guaranteed to outsell Titanfall, just you wait

 

[freefornow]

Hmm...so with the PS4 launch in Japan next week, it seems pretty likely that we'll be getting a "5 million PS4s sold" statement from Sony before we get a "4 million Xbox Ones sold" statement from Microsoft. I wonder how long it'll take Microsoft to hit 4 million.

End of March?

 

[Jetlagger]

Not a single new game on that list unless you are willing to call Tomb Raider DE for PS4bone "new".

Which, by the way, also sold 2:1, apparently.

 

[outunderthestars]

1% Year over year, mind you. I'm not sure how much better revenue should be in the-PS4-Xbone-just-launched 2014 January vs. PS3-360-are-slowly-dying 2013 january, but probably it should be higher even with retail declining overall. Probably. Maybe not.

It's not that this month is particularly bad for PS4 or even Xbone, in my opinion. But theoretically they should be picking up the slack left by the bomb that is the Wii U, and at least in this month, they certainly didn't do that. We'll need more data to see if that's a long term trend.

How can the PS4 pick up any more slack? They sold every console they could get onto a shelf....

 

[njean777]

I'm sure this has been brought up in regards to the "consoles are dead" stuff, but have we forgotten GTAV and it's like 32+ million copies sold in the last 6 months?

Consoles are dead though, those sales mean nothing. /rolls eyes. I seem to remember these arguments for PC back in 2005-2007. Was a hilarious time to watch people try to forecast and then be proven completely wrong.

 

[Biker19]

So when gamers try to tell us that the Xbox One floundering on shelves is not good for the market, what are we to do? Are we supposed to perform some civic duty and buy both the superior and inferior consoles, and then proceed to buy both the definitive and inferior versions of each software title as well? Would you like me to mortgage a house so I can support every micro and macro transaction Microsoft wants to put in the next Forza, Ryse, and Killer Instinct? Should I go ahead and pay one subscription fee on top of another just so ESO doesn&#8217;t bomb because that would be bad for MMOs or bad for Bethesda or bad for something or another? GTFO of here with that logic.

Competition isn&#8217;t about keeping the underachievers afloat, it&#8217;s about rewarding those whom you can objectively assess are actually competing the best for your dollar. That&#8217;s it. Last I checked, that&#8217;s how economies work. That&#8217;s how video games have always worked. That&#8217;s why ET cartridges were dumped in a landfill or something somewhere. That&#8217;s why Steam sales have to happen sometimes. That&#8217;s why stores have bargain bins, why GameStop has used games, and why PS4 is &#8220;generally&#8221; sold out everywhere.

If only more people like you were to understand of what's going on. Y2Kev said it as well. Not everyone is going to be big or successful every time at everything.

Companies involved in making products must make their products successful & must make people want to buy them.

 

[BigDug13]

All the people worried because individual games aren't selling a lot. A greater diversity of games means a spread of more sales. Also digital is not counted in NPD right? If YTY sales of software has dropped at the same rate as the increased adoption of digital sales, then a measurement of physical sales is going to reflect a lower total.

 

[pieatorium]

Was 2013 really that disastrous though? Weren't multiple records set? For COD, for GTA and even for exclusive new IP's like Last of Us?

I mean, sure hardware was down, but that happens at the end of a generation, and these new consoles at these high prices, and smaller games catalogues were never going to appeal to anything more than the hardcore market for the interim.

all of that was second half of the year, before GTA even including Last if US being strong it was in pretty big declines