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[gundamkyoukai]

Titanfall shuldnt be looked at as the big indicator either. If destiny doesn't do gangbusters with the full might of ACTI behind it that will be the real alarm bell

Not sure about that , Destiny while looking great is still a online only game and i don't think we have enough data to say how those type of games would do on consoles .
Still lets say it does good i would figure a good amount of people would buy it on DD since it's a MMO type games which won't show up on NPD anyway .

 

[Toki767]

End of March?

I was thinking mid March. End of March would be a really really long time to sell another million units. Especially if the PS4 hits 5 million by the end of February.

 

[maltrain]

Upcoming games for the PS4:

Feb:
Thief
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes
Rayman Legends

March:
inFAMOUS: Second Son
Putty Squad
Dynasty Warriors 8

April:
Final Fantasy XIV: A REALM REBORN

May:
MLB 14: The show

Metal Gear Solid -> MARCH

Yoy missed Dying Light for april.

 

[slapnuts]

I am totally baffled by the amount of people posting in here believing that these NPD numbers for PS4 are bad. I guess a lot of people are "ignorant" of January numbers for consoles? I don't mean "ignorant" in a bad way...but what i am saying is there are a LOT of people in here that "assuming" these numbers are bad when in reality they are pretty damn impressive "for January". January sales numbers are always a "low month"...combined that with the fact that PS4 has not been openly available nationwide all of January thus far is also good evidence PS4 is doing "very" well right now..for a slow month.

Some of you guys need to do your homework a bit better before posting...just saying

Anyways...great numbers for PS4....also the X1 numbers do not surprise me at all.

 

[FiggyCal]

Hmm...so with the PS4 launch in Japan next week, it seems pretty likely that we'll be getting a "5 million PS4s sold" statement from Sony before we get a "4 million Xbox Ones sold" statement from Microsoft. I wonder how long it'll take Microsoft to hit 4 million.

I think 5 million PS4's already happened. Maybe they're waiting until after Japan launch to give the update.

 

[vinnygambini]

I wonder if 3DS sold less than 100k.

I think the general consensus has it at approximately 130k.

 

[Petrae]

Not necessarily, Xbox one and PS4 are both much more expensive than older systems. So less total units sold can still mean more revenue.

Bingo. Revenue is not a great comparison here. Unit sales would be more apt.

 

[Jamix012]

Was 2013 really that disastrous though? Weren't multiple records set? For COD, for GTA and even for exclusive new IP's like Last of Us?

I mean, sure hardware was down, but that happens at the end of a generation, and these new consoles at these high prices, and smaller games catalogues were never going to appeal to anything more than the hardcore market for the interim.

We're talking about Jan 2013 here particulalry, and yes, Jan 2013 was pretty shockingly bad. Last of Us did well and GTA VI did phenomenonly, but that's about the end of the good news. CoD apparantly saw significant declines even with next gen releases on it. The AAA industry exists, and will continue to exist. Mid-tier is gone.

 

[Imperfected]

Not that the concerns are completely unfounded - especially for Nintendo's hardware offerings and the X-Box One's flagging demand - but I do think people are being a bit premature.

The hardware is down because people are waiting on PS4's, which have limited availability. The software is down because this has been an absolutely dreadful period with regards to physical retail releases, not even managing to pick up the usual "late to launch" January titles we normally see that missed their holiday release date due to project overruns. (I mean, they're still there, EA just went ahead and launched them in November anyway...)

I'm guessing Sony is waiting until the Japanese launch numbers are available to make their next big worldwide sales announcement. Let's just relax a bit and see how much of the "lost" Gen 7 sales are actually transitioning over to the PS4 before we declare the End Times.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Amazing. Software sales too. I said this before...but are many ppl really doing in depth research about games? Tomb Raider for the PS4 outselling the XBO version? Does Sony have that big of a lead in console sales...or did ppl actually do research about the game or specs of each console?

Just go on practically ANY Youtube video featuring anything PS4 or XBO related, and you'll see the disparity in public opinion between the two systems like night and day. The amount of trolling I've seen on XBO in those videos has to be a new (dubious) record.

That's the kind of image MS can't change with a boatload of money.

 

[Darmik]

I don't see how that equates to "CONSOLE GAMING IS DEAD." like most people in here seem to think

Maybe Nintendo console gaming is dead, but PS4 seems to be pretty healthy and is getting a bunch of games this year from basically every third party that matters. People just like to spread doom when their favorite company is getting boned to make it seem like everyone is doomed. Gaming will be fine as long as platforms like PS4 and PC exist and continue to thrive. Nintendo ain't that important.

Aren't they? Ubisoft made a lot of bank with Just Dance and Rayman and Activision made a lot with Skylanders and Guitar Hero. This was easy money for them. Is this market going to buy the PS4? If not, they have lost a significant market if they can't get a grip on them on elsewhere. What does that mean? Basically a whole bunch of Assassins Creed and COD. Safe bets. How can they take risks if they have don't have any low risk projects to rely on?

Even with these big projects. The 360 and PS3 had a high market between them. Is the PS4 able to have this by themselves? What if the PS4 sells 80 million but the rest don't get anywhere close? Third party publishers are just as boned. These projects are getting riskier the less these consoles sell and the more the market moves away from dedicated consoles.

I'm not sure if all of the publishers and developers can survive on the one market. Casual games on the Wii was a big opportunity for these developers and they're losing their grip on them. If they haven't all ready.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

There is only one game this month that sold >100,000 on a single platform, hasn't happened in decades.

Best selling release? Call of Duty: Ghosts with only 330K.

I just got the numbers.

Horrible. Just horrible.

When software sales were basically flat YoY this past December and 360/PS3 software sales fell off a cliff, the signs were there. The biggest indicator of front-loaded purchases and pure userbase transfer rather than industry growth.

The PS3 had more later-gen sales so it probably had more active users who switched to the PS4, including Xbox 360 people that jumped ship to Sony.

Still doesn't mean the PS4 will be fine, but at least it is leaving the last gen in the best shape in terms of user interest (although not financially) - unfortunately 50 million PS4 sales are not sufficient to keep most AAA studios in business unless tie-in ratios skyrocket. There is a reason retail releases are so limited this year. Publishers are hesitant.

If a game like Tomb Raider sold 4-5 million on a combined userbase of 160 million consoles and underperformed expectations, what is the sequel going to sell on a combined userbase of 80 million with ever-increasing costs to model Lara's hair and eyebrows and finger nails? Sony might be fine, but the entire industry is going to contract and change - hopefully for the better.

Most importantly, EA may have been crowing about their launch success - but even if TitanFall succeeds - I don't see them able to survive another around cashing in on sports games.

They turned Madden into a monopoly and stopped worrying about bringing new users into the idea of playing video game football. FIFA is going to continue to do well I suppose but they will have to shell out increased licensing costs limiting their profitability. They have no MMO with stable subscription revenue that is doing well. Their mobile games may be doing fine, but it's because of licenses and big dollars spent - the profitability does not match the billions they have burned through.

People think EA is going to buy Take Two, at this point if I'm Take Two, I look at GTA Online and think: "Let's Roll the Dice"

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Interesting.

 

[pieatorium]

Not sure about that , Destiny while looking great is still a online only game and i don't think we have enough data to say how those type of games would do on consoles .
Still lets say it does good i would figure a good amount of people would buy it on DD since it's a MMO type games which won't show up on NPD anyway .

Its a console game, even with the mmo aspect it will do much bigger business at retail. I dont think the online requirement will be that big of an impact, were still in the early gen, the main consumers are your core and connected.

 

[Toki767]

There is only one game this month that sold >100,000 on a single platform, hasn't happened in decades.

Best selling release? Call of Duty: Ghosts with only 330K.

I'm guessing that's on the 360?

If so that is proof enough that Titanfall is not going to move as many Xbox Ones as some people think.

Edit: Or is that 330K total for all platforms? Yikes if that is.

 

[And_Gignac]

Consoles are dead though, those sales mean nothing. /rolls eyes. I seem to remember these arguments for PC back in 2005-2007. Was a hilarious time to watch people try to forecast and then be proven completely wrong.

I dont think it applies. GTA V sales are actually a symptom of whats wrong with the industry. Take for example the music industry and CD sales. Adele´s "21" has sold almost 30 million copies and yet cd sales are in the pits.

 

[thepotatoman]

Exactly. NPD game sales are rather meaningless in the DD age. I buy a lot of games and although I'm not 100% digital, I'm heading that way. If people are spending 30% of their gaming dollars on DD, it will make NPD look depressing.

Well Famitsu started releasing digital numbers for Japan and they are mostly about 10-15% the retail sales. I know US might be a bit different in buying habits, but 30% still seems a bit much.

 

[leatherhat]

PS4 really did well, especially when you look at the weekly average. Almost as good as the hype machine wii.

 

[BoboBrazil]

The conversations at MSFT are most likely:

"Let's put out a press release saying we are investing another $500 million for our commitment to the product - this is a marketing issue and we have to responnd"

"Let's call Goldman's TMT guys and see if they can find a buyer or recommend the best time to spin off the unit and take as much cash as we can off the table"'

"Let's put that cash into Surface Pro 5 with 1.2 Teraflops and compatibility with all PC games and get Xbox One users to transition in a few years"

"Let's save one platform (Windows) that makes money and consolidate our users there, rather than dividing our users across two"

Microsoft doesn't innovate out of situations, it buys its way out or kills the whole project altogether.

There is tremendous pressure on the new CEO to make a decisive commitment to Windows and either double-down on saving it and perhaps forcing Xbox users onto Surface - or going all-in on Enterprise.

In either case the Xbox experiment doesn't have a high probability of surviving past this generation.

I see it playing out in 1 of 2 ways. Either they kill the Xbox division or they rush their next console out in 4 years to try to get a head start on Sony's next system.

 

[nib95]

We're talking about Jan 2013 here particulalry, and yes, Jan 2013 was pretty shockingly bad. Last of Us did well and GTA VI did phenomenonly, but that's about the end of the good news. CoD apparantly saw significant declines even with next gen releases on it. The AAA industry exists, and will continue to exist. Mid-tier is gone.

But is it surprising COD saw major declines? Eventually the market has to stop buying in to the same old, tired, regurgitated shit.

I think what we saw in 2013 was simply a reaction to stagnation in certain platforms and franchises, which might also explain why Last of Us, despite being a new IP, did so incredibly well.

Even now on these next gen consoles, we've yet to have anything major that is fresh and not a re animation of the old, or even a truly poignant improvement on what we've seen before. I think for a while these new consoles will be catering to mainly just the hardcore.

 

[jay]

What does Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule think about all of this?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm guessing that's on the 360?

If so that is proof enough that Titanfall is not going to move as many Xbox Ones as some people think.

Edit: Or is that 330K total for all platforms? Yikes if that is.

It's 331K for all platforms. The 360 SKU of COD is presumably the only game >100K this month.

 

[Jomjom]

Damn so Xbox was last place for both last gen and current gen consoles that still have games releasing?

 

[Confused Cheeseburger]

damn

 

[Montresor]

Well if this trend continues, let's say PS4 sells 80 million and XB1 sells 40 million by the end of the generation (I predict an overall decline in the market). Is the 40 million install base still enough for XB1 owners to expect multiplatforms (both big and small) to hit their system? I'd hope that in 5-6 years, there will still be GTA6, random new indie IP, or Murder Soul Suspect 2 being released for BOTH systems (1080p 60fps on PS4, 720p-900p 30fps on XB1).

I just think it would suck for the Xbox platform as a whole to die.

 

[allan-bh]

I think the general consensus has it at approximately 130k.

It's lower than 130k, but we don't know how much less.

 

[FiggyCal]

I'm guessing that's on the 360?

If so that is proof enough that Titanfall is not going to move as many Xbox Ones as some people think.

Edit: Or is that 330K total for all platforms? Yikes if that is.

Gears 1 which had similar buzz around it boosted 360 sales in its release week by about 40k units. It's not going to turn things around.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

So when gamers try to tell us that the Xbox One floundering on shelves is not good for the market, what are we to do? Are we supposed to perform some civic duty and buy both the superior and inferior consoles, and then proceed to buy both the definitive and inferior versions of each software title as well? Would you like me to mortgage a house so I can support every micro and macro transaction Microsoft wants to put in the next Forza, Ryse, and Killer Instinct? Should I go ahead and pay one subscription fee on top of another just so ESO doesn’t bomb because that would be bad for MMOs or bad for Bethesda or bad for something or another? GTFO of here with that logic.

Competition isn’t about keeping the underachievers afloat, it’s about rewarding those whom you can objectively assess are actually competing the best for your dollar. That’s it. Last I checked, that’s how economies work. That’s how video games have always worked. That’s why ET cartridges were dumped in a landfill or something somewhere. That’s why Steam sales have to happen sometimes. That’s why stores have bargain bins, why GameStop has used games, and why PS4 is “generally” sold out everywhere.

You said it. In a capitalist society, sometimes things die or suffer. It is their own fault and I am not to be blamed for it.

 

[Toki767]

Well if this trend continues, let's say PS4 sells 80 million and XB1 sells 40 million by the end of the generation (I predict an overall decline in the market). Is the 40 million install base still enough for XB1 owners to expect multiplatforms (both big and small) to hit their system? I'd hope that in 5-6 years, there will still be GTA6, random new indie IP, or Murder Soul Suspect 2 being released for BOTH systems (1080p 60fps on PS4, 720p-900p 30fps on XB1).

I just think it would suck for the Xbox platform as a whole to die.

40 million install base is probably still enough to expect multiplatform games. Especially when the architecture is close enough that the extra work required would probably be little compared to the potential overall return.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Well if this trend continues, let's say PS4 sells 80 million and XB1 sells 40 million by the end of the generation (I predict an overall decline in the market). Is the 40 million install base still enough for XB1 owners to expect multiplatforms (both big and small) to hit their system? I'd hope that in 5-6 years, there will still be GTA6, random new indie IP, or Murder Soul Suspect 2 being released for BOTH systems (1080p 60fps on PS4, 720p-900p 30fps on XB1).

I just think it would suck for the Xbox platform as a whole to die.

A majority of that 40 million would be in North America so yes I imagine 3rd party western focused publishers would still support it.

 

[FiggyCal]

Well if this trend continues, let's say PS4 sells 80 million and XB1 sells 40 million by the end of the generation (I predict an overall decline in the market). Is the 40 million install base still enough for XB1 owners to expect multiplatforms (both big and small) to hit their system? I'd hope that in 5-6 years, there will still be GTA6, random new indie IP, or Murder Soul Suspect 2 being released for BOTH systems (1080p 60fps on PS4, 720p-900p 30fps on XB1).

I just think it would suck for the Xbox platform as a whole to die.

Let's not forget that Samsung and Amazon want to compete with PS4/ Xbox One also.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I just got the numbers.

Horrible. Just horrible.

When software sales were basically flat YoY this past December and 360/PS3 software sales fell off a cliff, the signs were there. The biggest indicator of front-loaded purchases and pure userbase transfer rather than industry growth.

The PS3 had more later-gen sales so it probably had more active users who switched to the PS4, including Xbox 360 people that jumped ship to Sony.

Still doesn't mean the PS4 will be fine, but at least it is leaving the last gen in the best shape in terms of user interest (although not financially) - unfortunately 50 million PS4 sales are not sufficient to keep most AAA studios in business unless tie-in ratios skyrocket. There is a reason retail releases are so limited this year. Publishers are hesitant.

If a game like Tomb Raider sold 4-5 million on a combined userbase of 160 million consoles and underperformed expectations, what is the sequel going to sell on a combined userbase of 80 million with ever-increasing costs to model Lara's hair and eyebrows and finger nails? Sony might be fine, but the entire industry is going to contract and change - hopefully for the better.

Most importantly, EA may have been crowing about their launch success - but even if TitanFall succeeds - I don't see them able to survive another around cashing in on sports games.

They turned Madden into a monopoly and stopped worrying about bringing new users into the idea of playing video game football. FIFA is going to continue to do well I suppose but they will have to shell out increased licensing costs limiting their profitability. They have no MMO with stable subscription revenue that is doing well. Their mobile games may be doing fine, but it's because of licenses and big dollars spent - the profitability does not match the billions they have burned through.

People think EA is going to buy Take Two, at this point if I'm Take Two, I look at GTA Online and think: "Let's Roll the Dice"

Tomb Raider under performing after selling 4 to 5 million copies says something more about SE than it does the gaming market .
It's same way for many companies when people on message boards can look at your game and have better idea on what it can sell than people in suits you know something is wrong with management and budgeting .

 

[Loudninja]

Metal Gear Solid -> MARCH

Yoy missed Dying Light for april.

Dont think Dying Light has a date?

 

[Aquamarine]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

 

[LinkMaster111]

Still no Vita numbers?

 

[Chindogg]

God damn those software sales.

Console gaming's really starting to look like its in trouble. Here's hoping the games over the next few months pick up the slack.

 

[Rad-]

Wait retail sales down a bit with new consoles? That doesn't sound good.

 

[ethomaz]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

Ohhhhh that will be fast

 

[Anth0ny]

huh, so the industry is dead. that's too bad. I expected a front loaded launch for PS4/Xbone, but it's dropped a lot faster than I expected.

I'll be playing my SNES.

 

[allan-bh]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

Good.

Let's post people.

 

[Jomjom]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

The ghost has come back to haunt us!


This is my contribution to hitting 2100.

 

[Dug]

Dont think Dying Light has a date?

Wikipedia says March 31st.

 

[jayu26]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

Well, I did my part.

 

[FLEABttn]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

Well then.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think the general consensus has it at approximately 130k.

Not possible depending on what Sony meant with their PS3+PS4 > All else.

 

[pieatorium]

Still doesn't mean the PS4 will be fine, but at least it is leaving the last gen in the best shape in terms of user interest (although not financially) - unfortunately 50 million PS4 sales are not sufficient to keep most AAA studios in business unless tie-in ratios skyrocket. There is a reason retail releases are so limited this year. Publishers are hesitant.

If a game like Tomb Raider sold 4-5 million on a combined userbase of 160 million consoles and underperformed expectations, what is the sequel going to sell on a combined userbase of 80 million with ever-increasing costs to model Lara's hair and eyebrows and finger nails?"

Just on these points, I dont see any scenario where PS4 is only 50mill or that PS4 and bone only 80 mill combined at the end of the gen.

Sales dont scale linearly with userbase either I mean halo should be at like a 30 mill per game franchise on 360 if they did.

Lastly Square Enix management are snorting the good shit.

 

[Sandfox]

huh, so the industry is dead. that's too bad. I expected a front loaded launch for PS4/Xbone, but it's dropped a lot faster than I expected.

I'll be playing my SNES.

Embrace our indie and retro overlords

 

[Loudninja]

Wikipedia says March 31st.

Dont think so they would have announced it with the trailer.

 

[jiminycracken]

I'll make another post when this gets to #2100 that you guys will like.

We will like as a sign that the industry isn't screwed or that we will like because it lines up with us saying it is screwed?

 

[InsaneZero]

The notion that the PS4 and the Xbone will sell relatively well because gamers want to move on to better hardware and services never really sat well with me, considering that doesn't actually address how the audience for the home console market will grow. It's like investors popping champagne for having their portfolio just barely retain their original value for the next five years.