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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
I would say publisher being hell bent on the 59.99 price point killed mid budget games. Old mid budget games most of the time got pricing to reflect it. People were like why buy the mid budget game when I can get AAA game for the same price. I think there is a place for mid budget 39.99 games.

I've had a hypothesis for a while that 39.99 would be a magic price point to really increase software sales for but I don't see it ever taking off outside of a few games that were doomed to obscurity anyway.
 

Bedlam

Member
Just checked and yep DMC and Ni No Kuni were released last Jan. What notable games were released for home consoles this Jan? Tomb Raider DE?

I think a lot of doom is being thrown around without proper context. It's not a black and white situation
Yep that's what I'm thinking too.

There is absolutely nothing out there right now in terms of AAA games that feels fresh. This is why I haven't bought a PS4 yet (but absolutely will when the software is there) and it's also why I'm not buying any other AAA game for the last-gen systems I still have right now except for the odd indie game. I'm caught between the generations if you will.

Luckily, Dark Souls 2 is just around the corner...
 
I would say publisher being hell bent on the 59.99 price point killed mid budget games. Old mid budget games most of the time got pricing to reflect it. People were like why buy the mid budget game when I can get AAA game for the same price. I think there is a place for mid budget 39.99 games.

I agree there should be room for $30 and $40 games and i hoping that DD helps with that .
If remember right Sony try it with sly 4 not to certain on how that went and Dragon's Crown look like it did well.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Everything else combined ~84K.

Setting aside how bad some of these are for a moment, 3DS numbers must be shocking for something that should be still reasonably viable??

84K would be very bad. But what about Wii and Vita? That means 3DS might be 60-70K which is getting close to life support. ~1M in December to ~0.06M in January?

I've been wary of this theory that smartphone gaming has been having such an effect. I see the possibility but we've had very limited data points. Plus there's been mistakes. If Nintendo didn't make stupid mistakes and had a $149 handheld that had come down to $99 maybe things would be a lot better for the handheld. Likewise if they just made a simple Nintendogs 2 to directly target that audience. And likewise going for a 3D gimmick that makes peoples eyes hurt(same mistake as the Virtual Boy). But this is a bit too much.

Similar with the Wii U. Logically they've done enough to recover to some extent(wider game library over a year, price cut, Mario 3DS selling well, no competition in the price bracket), at least with their core audience. But no, this is a disaster.

And now the other last gen(PS3/360) completely falls off a cliff. But one of the next gen consoles also has a very weak month. Yes it's doing better than Xbox but Xbox was a new console with no reputation. Yes it's doing better than 360 but 360 was coming from an Xbox second best reputation. Yes MS made mistakes but ouch. And in the short term it's likely to get worse. Titanfall might give a boost but consider, if Sony never had shortages who knows, they might have outsold MS 3:1. There might be a fundamental weakness in the platform.

PS4 is the only hope but with the pent up demand of a 7 year cycle there is a clear possibility of struggles coming up.
 

Sandfox

Member
Why? MS will do what they always do quickly drop the Xbox One cold turkey and announce their next console. That's exactly what they did with the original Xbox,windows vista, and their Kin Phones.

If they had to drop the Xbox One like that I would be shocked if MS were to announce another console.
 

B.O.O.M

Member
Yeah, there are just no parameters at all when using a term like this imo. Its easier to separate them into Big budget and lower budget really.

Yep. I mean where do one draw the line right? UC is around 20-25mil...and GTA is insanely more expensive than that. I personally view games like SLY to be mid budget games but even then it's based on my personal opinion on what a mid-budget game is. Small vs big budget is much simpler
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
Why? MS will do what they always do quickly drop the Xbox One cold turkey and announce their next console. That's exactly what they did with the original Xbox,windows vista, and their Kin Phones.

To stock holder pressure right now to do that. If the Xbone fails the division will be sold off in pieces. I can only imagine the pressure on the new CEO come next earnings report when the entertainment division is in the red big time with poor sales.
 
I'm still sticking to my prediction that both x1 and PS4 were heavily front loaded at launch and will have abysmal sales from mid to late spring through until September AAA season.

X1 is already speeding towards the brick wall...PS4 will hit later, but hit it it will. Probably mid May or so.
 
As someone who only recently started poking around NPD threads within the past couple months, I still feel like I have zero frame of reference for judging how good or bad the numbers are any given month.

How many units need to be sold each month for both hardware and software for a product to be considered "successful"? What number do you all base your benchmarks on in order to determine weather a system or game had a good month?
 
I'm still sticking to my prediction that both x1 and PS4 were heavily front loaded at launch and will have abysmal sales from mid to late spring through until September AAA season.

X1 is already speeding towards the brick wall...PS4 will hit later, but hit it it will. Probably mid May or so.

I agree. Core console gamers rushed out to buy shiny new hardware but I believe the general public just doesn't care.
 

B.O.O.M

Member
Yep that's what I'm thinking too.

There is absolutely nothing out there right now in terms of AAA games that feels fresh. This is why I haven't bought a PS4 yet (but absolutely will when the software is there) and it's also why I'm not buying any other AAA game for the last-gen systems I still have right now except for the odd indie game. I'm caught between the generations if you will.

Luckily, Dark Souls 2 is just around the corner...

yep it's important to compare these things within context. I believe there's an issue of 5 weeks vs 4 weeks too here if I'm not mistaken.

This year the software line ups are looking solid starting this month onward. I bet destiny, WD, and DriveClub etc are also going to hit the market well before Fall this year too. Coming months should be much better.
 
Dev costs will probably remain relatively steady but the divide in labor will be different. Less fighting of hardware with hardcore programming, more of a shift to asset creation and art.
Yeah and art will be outsourced a lot this gen. So I guess budgets might remain steady or increase at a very slow pace. At least for companies that know how to budget like Sony.
 

mrpeabody

Member
I like AAA games but companies need to get some sense of budgeting , management and be realistic .
It's like when Capcom reboot DMC thinking it would sell more and everyone and there mother knew it was not going to happen or EA wanted dead space to sell 5 million etc etc .

I'm trying to get you to see that these overestimates are working in your favor. The projected sales are what makes development possible. If the publishers listen to you and cut all the estimates down to rational levels, the development costs become impossible to justify and some of the games don't get greenlit in the first place.

So what's more likely? That there's nobody at Ubisoft or EA who knows how to read a sales chart? Or that they lie about sales potential -- to themselves and their investors -- in order to get the games made at all?
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
I agree. Core console gamers rushed out to buy shiny new hardware but I believe the general public just doesn't care.

It is looking that way right now. The thing is with a extra 3 year wait on the generation I thought there would be more pent up demand from core gamers to carry the next gen much longer. We are at a point where in matter of maybe less than a month 2 of the next gen systems be under 100k sales.
 

Replicant

Member
Can someone explain to me the doom and gloom over last gen numbers?

I don't get it either. After 7-8 years, it's expected that people will be sick of them by now. And those who haven't got one yet, probably not gonna get one until there's a decent price drop. As for current gen, PS4 is sold out everywhere so those who can't find it is not necessarily going to conk out and buy Xbone. They'll wait until they can get PS4. Current-gen game sales are still in its infancy atm because limited players mean limited amount of people buying.

But I suppose doing this is more fun:

unXTO5P.gif
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Personally, I would call it a clearly declining market.

I don't see it that way. Even the inferior Xbone is selling at a record pace. The WiiU was a crap console that never should have been released. Last generation has lasted too long and is quickly dying out. Personally I'm giddy with all the great games that will release in the next couple of years. The industry seems to be shedding some of its AAA pretentions and more games are being made. If the PS4 wasn't selling out I'd agree with you, though.
 

Clockwork5

Member
Those of you who preach the death of the industry because the yoy numbers are down need to take a deep breath.

Every previous console launch sales record was destroyed two months prior...twice.
 

jayu26

Member
It is looking that way right now. The thing is with a extra 3 year wait on the generation I thought there would be more pent up demand from core gamers to carry the next gen much longer. We are at a point where in matter of maybe less than a month 2 of the next gen systems be under 100k sales.

Why are we still calling Wii U next gen?




Runs away...
 

B.O.O.M

Member
I agree. Core console gamers rushed out to buy shiny new hardware but I believe the general public just doesn't care.

See Sony has played this extremely smart here. They knew and understood that the core gamers are the target audience for home console sales in it's first year or so they put all their attention to that. With time they can use services, peripherals etc to expand on that market.

And I disagree about these consoles being front loaded. At least in the case of PS4 I see no reason to believe that at this point. it has sold incredibly well so far
 

Branduil

Member
As someone who only recently started poking around NPD threads within the past couple months, I still feel like I have zero frame of reference for judging how good or bad the numbers are any given month.

How many units need to be sold each month for both hardware and software for a product to be considered "successful"? What number do you all base your benchmarks on in order to determine weather a system or game had a good month?

Well so far the Wii U has been remarkably consistent as a benchmark for "abysmal." So using Wii U sales as a measure of abysmality, the XboxOne sold 2.86 Wii Us this month, which for a brand new console is probably not a good sign.
 
Ugh, I hate that Digital sales aren't tracked because from here on out retail sales are always going to decrease and not knowing digital sales paints a very one sided picture that the market is declining.

Just look at PC. Retail sales are abysmal, but if you track player counts for games like BF4, PC is usually not far from the top. So I don't think a decline in retail sales, especially compared to a month last year that actually had a new title released on PS360 (DmC) to no "new" title this past month, is indicative of anything until we know how much digital sales make up. I mean if Nintendo can sell nearly a 100,000 digital copies of Fire Emblem (on a system with no account system), I think it is fair to say other titles can do similar or better numbers on platforms that are a little more digital friendly.

But since there are no numbers, people will just continue to believe the market is in a decline, despite having two of the most successful console launches ever, both of which offer every game released digitally.
 

nightever

Member
With the numbers for everything else so low, I can't really see much more than 10K for Wii and PSV combined.

I think the NDS and PSP are so negligible they're being ignored now. So I'd ballpark something like 70-75K for 3DS.
If it doesn't the Vita and the Wii sold amazingly well. So yes, pretty sure?

Combined sales for the PS4 and its predecessor, the PlayStation 3, surpassed all other platforms in January, Sony said.

Said by Sony so I'm sure 'the other platforms' doesn't include their own platform, aka vita.

Not that matter much though.
 
Well so far the Wii U has been remarkably consistent as a benchmark for "abysmal." So using Wii U sales as a measure of abysmality, the XboxOne sold 2.86 Wii Us this month, which for a brand new console is probably not a good sign.

lol at least from this gen we'll be able to takeaway mattricks as a form of microtransactions and WiiU's as a unit of measurement
 
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