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[mbnmac]

Oh good, you again have nothing constructive to say about my post.

late but

AniHawk
Cranky. Very cranky.
Rather sarcastic to boot.

 

[the thoroughbred]

well that about wraps it up for videogames

come on guys, let's go back to pogs

Damn right, I knew some day they'd come in useful again.

Goes to rummage through drawers..

 

[Petrae]

I've been saying for over a year now that the recession was going to cause the gaming fad to flame out. Sure, gaming will still exist and have its core fanbase... but the recession has seen to it that the period of growth for this industry is over.

What's more disconcerting to me is that game companies are exacerbating the problem rather than trying to adapt to the recessed economy. We still have not seen the PS3 come down in price, even though the rumor mill seems to indicate that it's only a matter of time. The 360 "deal" for $200 sounds good at the start, but don't forget about the extra money for the pretty much necessary hard drive and Xbox Live! I don't expect Nintendo to cut its prices any time soon, either.

We have oblivious publishers like Activision that seem cocksure that cash-strapped consumers are going to pay $120+ for peripheral-laced bundles this season, and the head honcho thinks that the company should raise its game prices. We have Electronic Arts asking consumers to pay for cheats in Madden NFL 10 or for extra courses in Tiger Woods 10 that we would have probably seen on a finished game disc last generation. We have Capcom stripping out game features just to repackage them as DLC and bleed more money from consumers.

As much as I love video gaming, I wouldn't mind seeing the industry crash. It needs a massive correction to get things moving in the right direction again, as it did after the Great Video Game Crash and again (arguably) during the PlayStation era of the second half of the 1990s.

 

[Yagharek]

I predicted this would happen two years ago..

So Wii is doomed yet the software and hardware is still outselling the other two platfomrs. Are they both 'fads' too?

Really now.

 

[Gouty]

Too many of us that grew up on videogames are now generating expendable income. It’s a part of our lives unlike generations past and won’t be going anywhere for a very long time. Game industry is fine, crash won’t happen.

 

[timetokill]

I wouldn't mind seeing the industry crash. It needs a massive correction to get things moving in the right direction again, as it did after the Great Video Game Crash and again (arguably) during the PlayStation era of the second half of the 1990s.

Huh?

 

[wRATH2x]

:lol :lol :lol Fucking finally! I love you MamaRobotnick.

 

[laserbeam]

It could be argued the Wii prevented an industry implosion at least on the surface. All the massive PR of best months and years ever were all tied to the Wii doing insane stuff.

The Industry is a steaming pile of shit right now thats starting to reveal itself now that the Wii is returning to Earth. "Hardcore" are getting their games but at what cost? How many develpers are suddenly jobless and studios closing up because they bet on the wrong Horse.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

I've been saying for over a year now that the recession was going to cause the gaming fad to flame out. Sure, gaming will still exist and have its core fanbase... but the recession has seen to it that the period of growth for this industry is over.

What's more disconcerting to me is that game companies are exacerbating the problem rather than trying to adapt to the recessed economy. We still have not seen the PS3 come down in price, even though the rumor mill seems to indicate that it's only a matter of time. The 360 "deal" for $200 sounds good at the start, but don't forget about the extra money for the pretty much necessary hard drive and Xbox Live! I don't expect Nintendo to cut its prices any time soon, either.

We have oblivious publishers like Activision that seem cocksure that cash-strapped consumers are going to pay $120+ for peripheral-laced bundles this season, and the head honcho thinks that the company should raise its game prices. We have Electronic Arts asking consumers to pay for cheats in Madden NFL 10 or for extra courses in Tiger Woods 10 that we would have probably seen on a finished game disc last generation. We have Capcom stripping out game features just to repackage them as DLC and bleed more money from consumers.

As much as I love video gaming, I wouldn't mind seeing the industry crash. It needs a massive correction to get things moving in the right direction again, as it did after the Great Video Game Crash and again (arguably) during the PlayStation era of the second half of the 1990s.

Wow, I was actually going to say something very similar to that. Instead of companies adapting to the recession and trying to cater to less fortunate gamers to potentially expand sales, their greed seems to increase on a monthly basis. Collectors editions are becoming almost as expensive as consoles and Microsoft still will not drop their insanely priced accessory prices. Not expecting a crash, but you would think all of the companies going under would be a wake up call for the industry. Overall, the numbers range from disappointing to decent. Hopefully, we will see some price drops this year so sales can pick up.

 

[Rice-Eater]

I just came in here to say to Mama Robotnick, how the hell do you do it. You are such a fucking genius when it comes to this shit. I look forward to your gifs just much as the numbers themselves. It'll be a sad day on GAF if you ever decided to stop doing what you're doing.

 

[Rhindle]

I'm not buying the recession theory.

The current numbers have less to do with the recession, and more to do with the fact that there has been jack shit in terms of interesting product released this year. You can't have a Top 10 consisting of the same 5 Nintendo titles and EA Sports roster updates for months on end, and expect to sell a lot of consoles.

People are losing interest gaming, and for good reason.

 

[lowrider007]

:lol

uh, not sure why your laughing at that thb, when I said MS are selling live I didn't mean that was a bad thing, I think it's one of the reasons why MS have been as successful as they have been, that's why I later said I think Sony should concentrate more on selling PSN as a service rather than just trying to sell the console.

 

[Gouty]

I'm not buying the recession theory.

The current numbers have less to do with the recession, and more to do with the fact that there has been jack shit in terms of interesting product released this year. You can't have a Top 10 consisting of the same 5 Nintendo titles and EA Sports roster updates for months on end, and expect to sell a lot of consoles.

People are losing interest gaming, and for good reason.

bingo!

 

[DR2K]

People are losing interest gaming, and for good reason.

You're not serious are you? :lol The recession is a major factor in the decline of sales(for just about every industry in the world), and it has been for the past few months for the gaming industry.

Wii for example has the sharpest declines, but the software is better than it was last year considerably. (EA active, WSR, Tigerwoods, etc. . .)

 

[Gouty]

I’d characterize the loss of interest as temporary, not a general reversal of public taste. I do believe this is simply a reflection of the current releases.

 

[Vagabundo]

You're not serious are you? :lol The recession is a major factor in the decline of sales(for just about every industry in the world), and it has been for the past few months for the gaming industry.

Wii for example has the sharpest declines, but the software is better than it was last year considerably. (EA active, WSR, Tigerwoods, etc. . .)

Also the current cheapest console has not seen the decline, but yoy increase - even if very slight.

Definitely looks like it is price sensitive, however compelling software could have increased the demand and make people dig deeper.

Nintendo should look at increasing their value by bundles; it appears that people buy the same software all the time with their Wii's so just bundle it. EDIT: But only if this trend continues.

 

[Jackl]

You cannot squeeze high prices into people at times like these. Along with the terribad release schedule as usual. People bored looking for a new game on a tight budget simply buy used/old in 2nd hand market cutting retailers out of the loop. Anything recently new is a hard sell.

Thats why I'm not too worried about Activision pulling wonky milking schemes. It simply won't fly right now.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

So Wii is doomed yet the software and hardware is still outselling the other two platfomrs. Are they both 'fads' too?

Really now.

No, they aren't fads. To be a fad they'd actually have to have been popular at some point.

 

[Rhindle]

You're not serious are you? :lol The recession is a major factor in the decline of sales(for just about every industry in the world), and it has been for the past few months for the gaming industry.

Wii for example has the sharpest declines, but the software is better than it was last year considerably. (EA active, WSR, Tigerwoods, etc. . .)

Yes, I'm serious. Games are a small-ticket discretionary item, and should not be recession sensitive. HDTV sales are up this year. Box office receipts are up this year. There's no reason game sales should be suffering so badly.

If you're going to focus on Wii sales - Wii was going strong last year on the strength of WiiFit and still being a cool must-have item. Nintendo has done nothing to sustain interest in Wii since then.

 

[DR2K]

Yes, I'm serious. Games are a small-ticket discretionary item, and should not be recession sensitive. HDTV sales are up this year. Box office receipts are up this year. There's no reason game sales should be suffering so badly.

If you're going to focus on Wii sales - Wii was going strong last year on the strength of WiiFit and still being a cool must-have item. Nintendo has done nothing to sustain interest in Wii since then.

HDTV have gone down considerably in the past year though, and the cost of a movie ticket is much less than a a gaming console and $50-90 game/bundles.

Wiifit, Mario Kart, Wii Play, etc. . . still have strong momentum, and Wii users have even more options this year with all these hit titles. So you can't run around and say people are getting bored with all these titles. You may be getting bored, but that's another subject.

 

[Taurus]

I think Wollan drew this after E3 '06 to show his personal feelings about the consoles - PS3 would be the obvious winner, 360 was just barely able to compete with PS3 graphically at the time, but didn't have long-term potential, while Wii was supposed to be a total piece of crap and loose even before the generation started..

Poor Wii. It got so close.

 

[Rhindle]

HDTV have gone down considerably in the past year though, and the cost of a movie ticket is much less than a a gaming console and $50-90 game/bundles.

HDTV Sales are up 17% over 2008

Wiifit, Mario Kart, Wii Play, etc. . . still have strong momentum, and Wii users have even more options this year with all these hit titles. So you can't run around and say people are getting bored with all these titles. You may be getting bored, but that's another subject.

The fact that 1-2 year-old titles are still the main sellers shows just how poor product releases since then have been. You can't expect year+ old titles to sell consoles as they did when they were released.

 

[Taurus]

The fact that 1-2 year-old titles are still the main sellers shows just how poor product releases since then have been. You can't expect year+ old titles to sell consoles as they did when they were released.

Yeah, just like bad DS software releases are the main reason why Mario Kart DS, NSMB and Brain Training games are still selling so well.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Does that really matter though? What arguably really matters is budget and awareness and desire of the group you are trying to sell to. I agree Castle Crashers would have died if it was a store release. It sold well because it was able to be marketed and sold properly to a niche group where anticipation was high and word of mouth took over. My argument is that some of these hardcore Wii titles that bomb in some cases fit the demographics and market make-up more of the PSN/XBLA crowd rather than the general retail store Wii crowd. Not every title I would admit. Just some of them.

For what it's worth. I completely glossed over MadWorld when it was released on the Wii. Two weeks ago for whatever reason I watched a youtube clip and I thought wow that looks awesome. I think often times there is an awareness problem when they try to bring some of these titles to the Wii where it doesn't spread like it should.

I'll leave this topic though as I'll fully admit it's mostly speculation on my part and without budgets and full sales figures I don't feel comfortable making the full argument.

From the sounds of it that seems to be more of a problem with your value propositioning and not of the game itself. As I said earlier, it seems that people (like you in this case) itch for these games on XBLA/PSN because that's all you'd pay for them.

That's the common theme I seem to see with a lot of PS3/360 owners on the board as it pertains to Wii games. They wouldn't under any circumstances pay 50 bucks for Klonoa, or LKS, or other games of the type. In the Marvelous thread a few weeks back, there were spots of "Put x game on XBL/PSN for 15 bucks and i'd buy." If I were Marvelous, how quick do you think i'd be to take 1/4the the revenue on a game that people only prove to be tangentially interested in?

After that, there's marketing (how many eyes will see LKS or MadWorld as a niche downloadable title as opposed to a retail release) and visibility (as the market would be cut in at least half as because as of this writing only 50 percent of 360 gamers even go online). This isn't even getting demographics into play, and we know that 360 games are fickle when it comes to..erm, bright colors.

As for the titles you mentioned; yes it matters. Castle Crashers and Battlefield were backed by 2 of the largest game studios in America. Does Clover or Marvelous have that kind of cache?

 

[hc2]

I think this next spring,starting in March, will see hardware sales start to rise in the USA. I just do not see consumers adding to their credit card balances very much this holiday season.
Newsweek had a cover story about the recession being over, other sources are saying the worst is behind us in the USA. But I imagine consumers will take a while to recover both financially and psychologically from the recession.
I would predict the Wii back up to 400,000 units per month, the 360 to 300,000 per month, and the PS3 back to around 250,000 per month in March 2010.
Just an amateur's guess.
I wonder what the profit margin per sale on the games on Live/PSN versus retail shelves is these days. Would the distribution costs and retailers' profits make a big or little difference in the publishers' profit?

Tough year over year comparisons, declining Wii hardware growth and a cash-strapped consumer all combine to put pricing pressure on console makers ahead of the key Fall-holiday season, PlayStation 3 and Wii in particular.

But Cowen Group's Doug Creutz isn't certain that hardware price reductions will "rescue" the games biz from its current growth struggles, as it's become clear in recent weeks that the continued slump in monthly NPD results may be more than tough year-over-year comparisons as analysts initially believed.

"We are concerned that, given pressures on the consumer, price cuts may not have the stimulative impact to hardware and software sales that they have had in the past," says Creutz...
Investors are hoping for a $100 cut on the PS3, a $50 cut on the Wii, and a new $300 price point for the Xbox 360 Elite SKU. Regarding the Elite, consumer sites like weblog Kotaku have spotted catalogs already advertising the Elite at $299 as of August 30, supporting the likelihood of an announcement from Microsoft during GamesCom.

Analysts largely agree that without price cuts, the industry will be challenged to even post flat growth for 2009 over 2008, even if NPD numbers are back to their positive trend for the holiday. Some analysts even expect a decline, like Kaufman Bros.' Todd Mitchell modeling for 2009 to come in 2 percent down over 2008.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24827

 

[mario ate my burger]

NPD's are so dull now.

What was the last NPD that wasn't completely predictable?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

NPD's are so dull now.

What was the last NPD that wasn't completely predictable?

January of '07.

 

[RubberJohnny]

Since Sony's broken out the chart again, I thought I'd repost the one that has been reposted.

 

[SolidusDave]

PS2 24,112,000 (45-month mark) (June 2004)
PS2 18,080,000 (33-month mark) (June 2003)

Xbox - 9,361,402 (33-month mark) (July 2004)
Xbox - 12,500,000 (45-month mark) (July 2005)

GCN - 7,673,241 (33-month mark) (July 2004)
GCN - 11,122,000 (45-month mark) (July 2005)

360 10,749,000 (33 months) (July 2008)
360 15,683,786 (45 months) (July 2009)

PS3 8,035,896 (33 months) (July 2009)

Wii 20,817,781 (33 months) (July 2009)

Wait, the 360 has sold "only" 25,44% more consoles then the Xbox1 in the USA in the same time? I would have imagined a much bigger difference.

 

[the thoroughbred]

You know, Iwata has been saying for some time now, that the industry needs to be stabilized. He mentioned back in the last gen, how development costs should be reduced, and he did so in the GC era, but nobody cared. Because they were flourishing on other platoforms. This time he's been saying it for over 4 years now, that he wants to make it easier for developers to succeed. Giving them lower development costs, dd, VC. If only the developers had half a brain.

And there appears to be proof. Look at Sega, 3 semi flops for Wii. One did ok, but the point is, they are quite happy and stable. Whereas a major budget flop on the other 2, has led to numerous bankruptcies.

Damn right, the backed the wrong horse. Capcom on the other-hand have been utilizing engines, multi-platform releasing etc etc. There is no harm supporting expensive consoles, as long as they are smart with their moneys.

While USA might be a bigger market for console video games, some EU countries have been on the news as coming out of recession. France and Germany. Here in the UK I think we might not have even seen the worst.

 

[meme]

between 60k and 70k.

Conduit numbers waaay higher than I expected =O

 

[Psychotext]

Wait, the 360 has sold "only" 25,44% more consoles then the Xbox1 in the USA in the same time? I would have imagined a much bigger difference.

Performance in the US was not the problem with the xbox.

 

[DangerousDave]

Since Sony's broken out the chart again, I thought I'd repost the one that has been reposted.

Wow, that list is amazing. We should try to improve it.

Console Stand: No, No, Yes
Controller Wrist Strap: No, No, Yes

 

[Cheech]

I'm not going to play armchair analyst, but speaking for myself it has been a horrible year for new retail games. This summer, I've been living off XBLA titles (Splosion Man, BF 1943, Magic the Gathering) and catching up on Blu Rays courtesy of Netflix.

Big software launches get people excited about spending money on gaming. We simply haven't had any worth mentioning this year. Hell, the last game that generated even GAF-level hype was Killzone 2, which isn't going to inspire anyone to buy a PS3.

This fall doesn't exactly have me hopeful, either. Sure, we have a new Halo which will give the 360 a small bump from last September, but beyond that I'd expect all the systems to show YOY losses.

As for the recession, the massive amount of delays into next year probably have quite a bit to do with game companies crying "uncle" and hoping the economy picks back up by then. Assuming, of course, they use the same financial analysts as everyone else. :lol

 

[Barrett2]

Can we please avoid any nonsense analogies with the 1983 crash. The industry is so different now than then, its apples to oranges.

I think we are in the demographic that often fails to realize that gaming is a much broader business than we participate in. Sure, HD home consoles have had struggles, but so what? It is an important area of gaming that will course-correct over time. Just because devs went overboard with their budgets the last few years leading to delays and some poor product, there is no reason to overdramatize the situation. The gaming industry is overall in a good place long-term, because there are so many revenue streams for companies. Lest we forget, in a major recession almost all businesses lose money. There is nothing particularly odd about whats happening in the gaming industry right now, it is weathering the storm like other industries.

 

[OnPoint]

Wow, that list is amazing. We should try to improve it.

Console Stand: No, No, Yes
Controller Wrist Strap: No, No, Yes

Controller Condom: No, No, Yes
LED equipped disc slot: No, No, Yes
Gamecube Controller ports: No, No, Yes

Shiiiiiiiiit.

 

[Reno7728]

I think next month we will we the WSR effect bring wii sales back up.

As of now it's mainly those with the console buying the new nintendo game. however (as we saw with wii sports) These people will show WSR to their friends, and then due to the new technology, we could see an increase in wii sales.

 

[operon]

Really slow month haven't even made 20 pages yet, didn't miss much in the thread going to bed last night.
AS for predictions of the crash of gaming, I'd say way of the mark its just slowing at the moment come chrsitmas its wil be back. For sony will it come soon enough.....

 

[Vagabundo]

Wow, that list is amazing. We should try to improve it.

Console Stand: No, No, Yes
Controller Wrist Strap: No, No, Yes

Fun: No No Yes

Oh dear...

 

[deleted]

Are there any numbers out of the top10 by now?
Didn´t follow the thread after the first 6 pages.

 

[Dabookerman]

Fun: No No Yes

Oh dear...

Uh huh.

 

[Sipowicz]

i'm kind of skeptical about the chances of wii recovering from this slump

i dont really see wii fit plus or nsmb pushing hardware that much, and i dont really see the wii ever being an attractice prospect for the halo 3 crowd

+ unlike the DS you only need one per household

 

[Stumpokapow]

I already explained what they're doing and what the other companies aren't doing. Most of it is smart investing. You break down business to its core and it's just taking money and giving it back in a way that will give you more. but here's some things that they have done recently mostly well for their long term outlook (and I'm not necessarily saying that the other two haven't done most of these things) -

Keep it steady. Get a long-term fan-base and don't take them for granted. Create a long-term brand aka let them know you're not going anywhere. Get lots of new ips that you can make sequels for in the future. Be a company people want to make games for. Show them there's money to be made by making products for them. They are your friends, not enemies or slaves. Keep a slow but steady output of old ips from the past and don't rely entirely on them. Keep the prices competitive. Pick up companies that have promise...be the first to shake their hands when they enter the party and last to shake their hands when they're leaving the party. Pick up companies that your competitors use against you. Reinvest into yourself. Have faith in your own future endeavors. Don't sit on your money. Invest in 3rd and 1st parties. Give your customers what they want by first listening to them - Updates, netflix, downloadable games, xbla arcade, avatars, things like that. market (aka reinvest). Dabble into the unknown but don't dive in, take advantage of the shortcomings of your competitors. When they trip, you froggy hop right over them. Don't trip! Don't let them hop over your back when you do. Show that you give a rats ass about your fanbase and the industry...be a "good guy" in the industry the best you can with the least amount of self-sacrifice. Play to win, don't play like you're already winning.

so basically make all the right moves and strike a perfect balance between safe investing and risk-taking and make high quality products and recognize your audience and beat your competitors

... well that sounds easy i wonder why all those companies don't do it.

 

[Mad Max]

Fun: No No Yes

Oh dear...

Games: Yes Yes No

 

[Vagabundo]

Games: Yes Yes No

That's so 2008.

 

[Sleeker]

Market leader: Tells itself while rocking back and forth, No, Yes

 

[betterman]

XB was strong in the US market. always.

he declines after XB360 be announced and dies after XB360 launch.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

i'm kind of skeptical about the chances of wii recovering from this slump

i dont really see wii fit plus or nsmb pushing hardware that much, and i dont really see the wii ever being an attractice prospect for the halo 3 crowd

+ unlike the DS you only need one per household

You forgot DOOOOOOOOOOMED!

 

[VanMardigan]

It's gotten to the point where I can predict the numbers here WITHOUT looking at evilore's post. There is a certain "code" each camp uses.

-Sony fans claiming the numbers are "boring" is code for "oh shit, another shit month for Ps3".

-MS fans harping on YOY numbers means that the console had yet another unspectacular <250k month that was marginally better than last year's equally vanilla numbers

-Wii fans clamoring for a price cut means that the Wii sold less than 15 million for the month and the fanboys are worried that it didn't sell ten times as much as the competition combined and the "fad" word will get thrown around.

 

[Sipowicz]

You forgot DOOOOOOOOOOMED!

nah i'm just guessing. it could sell loads of wii's

but i'm a bit skeptical that it ould sell hardware given people that have bought it so far