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[metalslimer]

Yeah but what do 'tie ratios' really mean in the current gen when a PS4 or XB1 owner can or will buy $50 of digital content every month? The tie ratio may be significantly down but that doesn't mean they are contributing less to the industry's revenues.

When 1st party reports software numbers, it includes digital as well. So that PS4 30 million software included digital. Still, I have to wonder how the PSN subscription and stuff like PS Now will play into how much software gets sold.

 

[MilesTeg]

So basically the PS4 has almost sold as much software as Wii U in 9 months. Soon it will surpass it.

 

[sörine]

When 1st party reports software numbers, it includes digital as well. So that PS4 30 million software included digital.

I think he's talking about IAP and services. Although we had Horse Armor last gen too.

 

[KillerMan91]

More and more it's looking like what we saw with DS vs 3DS imo. A comparably better start but falling behind quicker than most expect. It'll probably take a good year or two for general sentiment to shift. Hell we still have people with their heads in the sand regarding 3DS.


The problem with suddenly introducing digital now is that we've had digital software on consoles for a decade already. Sure the proportion was much less back then, but we still had sizable numbers. As an example Wii sold over 10 million VC games it's first year. I'm not sure digital exclusives/indies on the consoles this gen will even compare favorably to that?



July 2001 (PS2): 352k
July 2007 (Wii): 425k
July 2014 (all current gen consoles): 399k

Completely par for the course.

I think comparing yearly numbers is more telling than random months. If the numbers look as bad after december maybe I board to this doom train too. I just think that holiday season is taking bigger and bigger part of the yearly sales. Just look at release calendar during this summer and then compare it to one month with October.

 

[darkstar0155]

July 2001 (PS2): 352k
July 2007 (Wii): 425k
July 2014 (all current gen consoles): 399k

Completely par for the course.

Thats pretty telling right there, much more than the PR of "first 9 months of 360+ps3<xbo+ps4

 

[sörine]

So basically the PS4 has almost sold as much software as Wii U in 9 months. Soon it will surpass it.

Sort of. PS4 number includes digital only games while the Wii U number doesn't.

 

[theprodigy]

Sort of. PS4 number includes digital only games while the Wii U number doesn't.

....if you're referring to the number on Nintendo's report, I'm pretty sure it does

 

[Orthogonal]

Why is the cost of game development so high? Is it marketing budget? Cutscenes? Or just not budgeting appropriately?

I remember reading that Uncharted 2 cost 20 million to make and one of the Witchers was around 10 million. Haven't played either of those games, but isn't that good for the kind of games they are?

Looking at some of the new IPs we've seen at Gamescom. The budget for games like Rime, The Tomorrow Children, WiLD doesn't seem like it would be so expense (maybe it's the artstyle and I haven't seen many cutscenes?). However, they're open world games that looks nice.

I wish it was as easy to find the budget for games as it is for movies. All I can do is guess lol.

AAA titles can have staffs that run anywhere from about 50 people to 500 and sometimes much more. Some publisher's like Ubisoft have monstrous staff's that can move around from project to project depending on where they need to focus the resources. It is not uncommon for an Assassin's Creed game to have nearly 1000 people working on it over the course of development. Some staff salaries are relatively "cheap" labor like QA, but programmer's can make upwards of 80k-100k per year. If you do the math you can see how much this can balloon over a game that takes 2 to 3 years to develop.

Then comes advertising, in many cases, the advertising budget is just as large or even more than the development cost of the game. Paying for prime time TV ads and getting into major newspapers and magazines is not cheap. Depending on the size of the game, this cost is easily in the $10's and in some cases $100's of millions of dollars.

 

[sörine]

....if you're referring to the number on Nintendo's report, I'm pretty sure it does

No it doesn't, it's packaged+digital versions only. Digital exclusives, indies, VC, etc aren't included.

 

[KillerMan91]

PS2 2001:
August: 322,782
September: 343,719
October: 332,117
November: 919,131
December: 1,971,318

PS4 should easily sell more than PS2 at least during September-November period. December is not impossible either if PS4 behaves like leading console (PS3 was third place system for all of its life and its peak December was 1.36 million).

 

[StevieP]

XB gets most of its sales in the US and UK iirc, the rest are Sony land.

And well, everywhere is Sony land with the PS4 it seems.

Hey I didn't make that post! Lol

Yeah but what do 'tie ratios' really mean in the current gen when a PS4 or XB1 owner can or will buy $50 of digital content every month? The tie ratio may be significantly down but that doesn't mean they are contributing less to the industry's revenues.

Good thing that digital marketplaces, DLC and season passes and preorder bonuses are a new thing this gen, then

 

[Crisco]

Yikes, this feels like deja vu in reverse of the last generation. There better be a Halo coming out soon........

 

[sörine]

I think comparing yearly numbers is more telling than random months. If the numbers look as bad after december maybe I board to this doom train too. I just think that holiday season is taking bigger and bigger part of the yearly sales. Just look at release calendar during this summer and then compare it to one month with October.

I'd actually be pretty interested in seeing the 2001 PS2 vs 2007 Wii vs 2014 current gen consoles totals through July if anyone wants to add up the numbers? I'd do it but I'm already late...

 

[Calamari41]

Yeah but what do 'tie ratios' really mean in the current gen when a PS4 or XB1 owner can or will buy $50 of digital content every month? The tie ratio may be significantly down but that doesn't mean they are contributing less to the industry's revenues.

Is that happening though? Enough to make up for what has been lost between the Wii and Wii U? 895,000,000 games were sold for Wii according to Nintendo's May 2014 financial release... assuming an 80% drop gen-on-gen for Nintendo as an optimistic case, we're looking at a void of 716,000,000 games and all of the revenue that represents. Are we on track to make that up between PS4 and XB1?

BTW I'm not trying to argue, I'm legitimately asking.

 

[And_Gignac]

They really aren't compared to Playstation, how do you think the PS3 caught up to the 360?

also despite all the claims otherwise here, Nintendo doesn't have much more of a foothold in those "tier 2 markets" then Microsoft does

Right. Sony hardware mindshare is unmatched in small countries but calling the other 2 "not global" was kind of a stretch. It's like saying Pokemon isn't global, haha.

I think comparing yearly numbers is more telling than random months. If the numbers look as bad after december maybe I board to this doom train too. I just think that holiday season is taking bigger and bigger part of the yearly sales. Just look at release calendar during this summer and then compare it to one month with October.

We have had this discussion since April iirc. Current gen is falling behind in monthly sales when compared to the respective months of prior generations. But I agree, we have to wait until January 2015 to see if this trend continues.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Good thing that DLC and season passes and preorder bonuses are a new thing this gen, then

hey we had them since last gen and now we going to get F2P also .

 

[1st Course]

Wut.

How are Nintendo and Xbox not "global" brands?

They make most of their sales from specific countries, unlike PlayStation.

 

[StevieP]

hey we had them since last gen and now we going to get F2P also .

It was sarcasm

They make most of their sales from specific countries, unlike PlayStation.

Sony makes most of their sales from the bigger markets as well.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

It was sarcasm

I know i should have added a face also .

We have had this discussion since April iirc. Current gen is falling behind in monthly sales when compared to the respective months of prior generations. But I agree, we have to wait until January 2015 to see if this trend continues.

yeah cause right now they still ahead by a good amount but holiday time will tell us much more .
Even if they fall behind in some months over all is what really matters .

 

[Lexxism]

I'd actually be pretty interested in seeing the 2001 PS2 vs 2007 Wii vs 2014 current gen consoles totals through July if anyone wants to add up the numbers? I'd do it but I'm already late...

This is actually interesting to see on how the current gen is doing. Hopefully someone will make one

 

[theprodigy]

They make most of their sales from specific countries, unlike PlayStation.

I think a more accurate description would be that Playstation systems get a higher percentage of their sales in smaller markets compared to Xbox/Nintendo.

 

[1st Course]

I think a more accurate description would be that Playstation systems get a higher percentage of their sales in smaller markets compared to Xbox/Nintendo.

Right.

 

[Aquamarine]

lol of course you'd want that.

-

Hey creamsugar, could we possibly get CoD: Ghosts LTDs for each next-gen platform?

Current-gen revenue marketshare:

PS4 - 49%

XBO - 51%


There are PLENTY of other multiplatform games that show a PS4 advantage, though. Especially games like Watch_Dogs.

 

[BigDug13]

I think a more accurate description would be that Playstation systems get a higher percentage of their sales in smaller markets compared to Xbox/Nintendo.

Especially this generation where Sony quickly jumps out to 2x the global sales numbers of Xbox at 10 million while not really destroying Xbox in NPD alone.

 

[jcm]

This is actually interesting to see on how the current gen is doing. Hopefully someone will make one

I don't have 2001 PS2 numbers, but here's 2007 vs 2014:

  2007 Wii  2014 PS4  2014 XB1
Jan    436       271       141
Feb    335       270       258
Mar    259       371       311
Apr    360       199       115
May    338       197        77
Jun    382       269       197
Jul    425       187       131
      2535      1764      1230

I don't think it's especially illuminating, though, because the Wii was badly supply constrained. It could easily have doubled or tripled its numbers if they'd had enough machines to sell.

Current-gen revenue marketshare:

PS4 - 49%

XBO - 51%

There are PLENTY of other multiplatform games that show a PS4 advantage, though. Especially games like Watch_Dogs.

I don't suppose you've got a 3DS number up your sleeve?

 

[shinra-bansho]

System sales on a trailing twelve month basis. From the end of the first full year of XBX/GCN sales. Includes only data on 6th, 7th and 8th gen systems, so the early part of the chart may underestimate; but par for the course doesn't seem that erroneous a description.

What's clear is that last gen was not par for the course, there was something anomalous there. There's a contraction or correction having occurred depending on the semantics you prefer, and the idea of the ALL chart returning to the stratospheric heights of 2009 is fanciful. But taking this relatively mundane July as some sort of omen or portent seems odd.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Current-gen revenue marketshare:

PS4 - 49%

XBO - 51%


There are PLENTY of other multiplatform games that show a PS4 advantage, though. Especially games like Watch_Dogs.

Is that the whole ecosystem or just software? XB1 hardware ASP is a lot higher so if it includes hardware then the PS4 is performing to expectations.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Consoles are also hurting by virtue of not being a good moba platform.

LoL's playerbase alone is close to 30 million.

 

[BadWolf]

wait how did you end up quoting StevieP

Hey I didn't make that post! Lol

My bad XD

 

[Mr Swine]

So are we expecting that PS4 (und Xbox One) will sell better YoY starting next year?

 

[theprodigy]

Is that the whole ecosystem or just software? XB1 hardware ASP is a lot higher so if it includes hardware then the PS4 is performing to expectations.

I'm pretty sure that's just Call of Duty.

 

[Foshy]

Is that the whole ecosystem or just software? XB1 hardware ASP is a lot higher so if it includes hardware then the PS4 is performing to expectations.

It's just CoD: Ghosts if I understood that right

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I'm pretty sure that's just Call of Duty.

Serves me right for not reading properly...

 

[theDeeDubs]

I'm always surprised when I see the installment base of generations and compare it to software sales. If this generation happens to lose a chunk of the more casual or Wii audience wouldn't that have little affect on pubs though? It seems like the hardcore/core are the ones that actually buy the games each month and it seems like they will at least be retained or replaced gen to gen. If you're losing people that only bought Wii sports because they're playing candy crush now it shouldn't affect the core game publishers I wouldn't think. I don't think total consoles sold tell the whole tale. Have software sales (not sure without digital) been worse from previous gens?

I do feel dedicated handheld is dying that said though.

 

[FourMyle]

You might even say it is a Powerhouse™. Here's the 3DS vs the PSP and NDS in their comparable year of 2008. I don't have a number for July yet, but I suspect it's safe to guess that it was less than 222K.

            3DS 2014  PSP 2008  NDS 2008
January           97       230       251
February         153       243       587
March            159       297       698
April            106       193       415
May               97       182       452
June             152       337       783
July                       222       608
August                     253       518
September                  238       537
October                    193       491
November                   421      1570
December                  1020      3040
TOTAL                     3829      9950


Through June     764      1482      3186

Wow. The 3DS collapsed. I'm expecting Vita-level sales for Nintendo's next handheld. Mobiles and Tablets can not be stopped.

 

[bigbaldwolf86]

Serves me right for not reading properly...

zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.

 

[theprodigy]

Wow. The 3DS collapsed. I'm expecting Vita-level sales for Nintendo's next handheld. Mobiles and Tablets can not be stopped.

what

this seems like a severe exaggeration

 

[StevieP]

I'm always surprised when I see the installment base of generations and compare it to software sales. If this generation happens to lose a chunk of the more casual or Wii audience wouldn't that have little affect on pubs though? It seems like the hardcore/core are the ones that actually buy the games each month and it seems like they will at least be retained or replaced gen to gen. If you're losing people that only bought Wii sports because they're playing candy crush now it shouldn't affect the core game publishers I wouldn't think. I don't think total consoles sold tell the whole tale. Have software sales (not sure without digital) been worse from previous gens?

I do feel dedicated handheld is dying that said though.

900 million pieces of software weren't just Wii sports for grandma. Or just dance for your sister.

 

[Bruno MB]

I'd actually be pretty interested in seeing the 2001 PS2 vs 2007 Wii vs 2014 current gen consoles totals through July if anyone wants to add up the numbers? I'd do it but I'm already late...

[2001] PS2 - 2,291,000
[2007] Wii - 2,535,000

[2014] PS4 - 1,760,000
[2014] XBO - 1,230,000

 

[jholmes]

July 2001 (PS2): 352k
July 2007 (Wii): 425k
July 2014 (all current gen consoles): 399k

Thanks for crunching these numbers out. People need to drop the PR spin and face the reality of the market. If the console market was really so healthy, companies wouldn't keep bleeding money.

 

[robo]

I know this is the NPD thread that gives us US numbers but it seems people are focusing to much on US and ignoring what the numbers are actually telling us.

Reading through the thread and numbers, it looks like although the US PS4 sales are still ahead of everything so far, but likely to slow down, and Japan is so far a no show, the EU is picking up far more of the slack than people realise.

It seems that the PAL region is growing even faster?

Do we have the numbers for PAL region growth across the gens?

 

[theDeeDubs]

900 million pieces of software weren't just Wii sports for grandma. Or just dance for your sister.

I didn't mean for it to come across that way. I'm not dismissing the Wii or at least I didn't mean to come across as it. How many units of Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty did the Wii sale? I'm just wondering how losing that installment base actually affects the big pubs.

 

[Dragonborn]

900 million pieces of software weren't just Wii sports for grandma. Or just dance for your sister.

They were mostly just Nintendo and third party casual games (like Just Dance). Loosing tgat audiance won't affect the PS/XB focused devs all too much.

And comparisons to the Wii are kind of irrelevent. The Wii attracted a whole new audiance and it was super cheap, of course it was doing gangbusters. As for the PS2, it had zero competition. The biggest potential problem is the X1 underporming. The PS4 should easily outsell the PS3, but the X1 will be lucky to do half what the 360 did. If the PS4 can pick up some of the slack then things will be fine (aka, 100 million PS4 and 40 million X1)

 

[Lexxism]

I don't have 2001 PS2 numbers, but here's 2007 vs 2014:

  2007 Wii  2014 PS4  2014 XB1
Jan     87       271       141
Feb    335       270       258
Mar    259       371       311
Apr    360       199       115
May    338       197        77
Jun    382       269       197
Jul    425       187       131
      2186      1764      1230

I don't think it's especially illuminating, though, because the Wii was badly supply constrained. It could easily have doubled or tripled its numbers if they'd had enough machines to sell.

Oh. Thanks for your time.

Also, there's around 400k difference between you and Bruno's data.

[2001] PS2 - 2,291,000
[2007] Wii - 2,535,000

[2014] PS4 - 1,760,000
[2014] XBO - 1,230,000

 

[SmokyDave]

900 million pieces of software weren't just Wii sports for grandma. Or just dance for your sister.

No, but those two games do represent more than 10% of the total software sales.

Do we know how many third party games were sold on the Wii? I think that's probably the more important number.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I didn't mean for it to come across that way. I'm not dismissing the Wii or at least I didn't mean to come across as it. How many units of Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty did the Wii sale? I'm just wondering how losing that installment base actually affects the big pubs.

It really depends on the pub to tell the truth .

 

[darkstar0155]

[2001] PS2 - 2,291,000
[2007] Wii - 2,535,000

[2014] PS4 - 1,760,000
[2014] XBO - 1,230,000

intersting, plus adding in the fact that the wii was supply constrained that entire time, and maybe even the PS2 (cant remember how long that was supply constrained)

 

[FourMyle]

what

this seems like a severe exaggeration

If you told someone last gen that the 3DS' market would shrink by such a staggering amount that it wouldn't even get close to PSP numbers I'm sure they would have said the same.

 

[Lexxism]

No, but those two games do represent more than 10% of the total software sales.

Do we know how many third party games were sold on the Wii? I think that's probably the more important number.

Take this with a grain of salt. I remember reading that the Wii sold more than 500 million 3rd party software.

 

[BigDug13]

Consoles are also hurting by virtue of not being a good moba platform.

LoL's playerbase alone is close to 30 million.

And yet people shit on Gearbox for creating an FPS Moba for consoles, saying it's a dumb idea. Sounds like a perfectly good idea because there is zero genre representation on consoles.