Well, Nintendo hasn't made money as a platform-holder for several years. So making any money at all as a third party would be more money than they make now.
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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]
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Well, Nintendo hasn't made money as a platform-holder for several years. So making any money at all as a third party would be more money than they make now.
Are you accounting for the lack of 5th gen (+Dreamcast) early in the chart by cutting off sales on legacy platforms at a certain point? Like for example when successor platforms launch?
System sales on a trailing twelve month basis. From the end of the first full year of XBX/GCN sales. Includes only data on 6th, 7th and 8th gen systems, so the early part of the chart may underestimate; but par for the course doesn't seem that erroneous a description.
What's clear is that last gen was not par for the course, there was something anomalous there. There's a contraction or correction having occurred depending on the semantics you prefer, and the idea of the ALL chart returning to the stratospheric heights of 2009 is fanciful. But taking this relatively mundane July as some sort of omen or portent seems odd.
If not then wouldn't we be dealing with an apples/oranges comparison for everything but the center and end?
anexanhume
Member
I suppose the trend doesn't surprise me. Smartphone and tablets are eroding mobile platforms' userbases, and the Wii's comparable is $150 more and had a lot more availability the holiday prior to sate initial demand. Additionally, 2006/2007 was the height of the economy since the 2001 crash.
The main difference is the lack of success of any console platform in Japan. Mobile has eaten even into console sales and next gen has yet to receive any significant developer support from Japanese, partly for the aforementioned reason and partly for their own financial struggles and lack of success in recent years.
The main difference is the lack of success of any console platform in Japan. Mobile has eaten even into console sales and next gen has yet to receive any significant developer support from Japanese, partly for the aforementioned reason and partly for their own financial struggles and lack of success in recent years.
Just to be clear, are you claiming that digital sales are so significant (lets say 25% or more digital sales for each game) that NPD numbers are being affected by that much?
anexanhume
Member
> 200K. All we know.
We know that Watch Dogs sold 600k in its first 30 days in Latin America. 41% on current gen, 49% on old gen and 10% on PC.
lyrick
Member
You're excluding digital and third party...
Five digital only games were released on the Wii U yesterday (2 Virtual Console / 3 eShop).
Disney Infinity, Skylanders, Sonic, Just Dance and other are on their way from third parties as well.
FullMetaltech
Member
I think this a week shorter than last. So not bad for all.
I'm not sure the F2P, digital, and mobile offerings are the type of risk taking we're used to though. The games that bring in the most revenue are safe offerings like that Kim Karadashian iOS game that rely on standard methods such as meters to make you wait or pay for instant access.
spatenfloot
Member
In Ubisoft's Q1 report, they said the digital segment was 84 million euro. That equates to about 23% of total revenue for the quarter. It is definitely growing.
Take Two said:
For fiscal first quarter 2015, Non-GAAP net revenue grew 5% to $151.6 million, as compared to $144.3 million for the year-ago period. Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to $11.2 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, as compared to $47.1 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, for the year-ago period.
The largest contributors to Non-GAAP net revenue in fiscal first quarter 2015 were NBA® 2K14, Grand Theft Auto® V, Grand Theft Auto Online and Borderlands® 2. Non-GAAP net revenue from digitally-delivered content grew 43% year-over-year to $106.4 million, led by the Grand Theft Auto series, the NBA 2K franchise and offerings for Borderlands 2.
CosmicQueso
Member
Looking at North, Central and South Americas, for example... territories outside of the US and Canada can account for around 6-10% of total sales. And the adoption rate of new consoles is quite low.
One way to look at it is, "hey, that's not a big number. And if you go new gen only, you're probably going to sell so much more in the US and Canada that you'd more than make up for not having the old gen versions". And you'd probably be right, particularly for the Core stuff.
The other way to look at it is... "okay, i'm a publisher. I've built sales and distribution offices in Brazil or Mexico or Czech. We have developing markets in these territories that are showing strong growth, better growth than we're seeing in more developed territories. In order to keep those territories growing, and keep those new customers happy, I have to have versions of my games people in those territories can buy and play".
So for a while we'll still see the FIFAs and CODs and those games that might have more global appeal keep going cross gen, while new IP, and games with a very Core focus (open world in particular) coming on the new consoles only.
It's a very tough balance, knowing that the big upsides are on the new consoles, but HW adoption rates trailing in developing territories.
Ubisoft's approach with Assassin's Creed is a really interesting (maybe the best?) approach to this challenge. We'll have to see how they do.
Current NPD July 2014 Estimates
PS4 sales took a pretty big drop in the month of the Destiny Beta and release of TLOU. August could be ugly, unless somehow Madden draws more users to current gen.
And that's the best selling platform...
theprodigy
Member
That includes PC....
prag16
Banned
That's what I was thinking. September should see a huge rise, but August NPD thread will have all the doomsayers (including myself at times) back at it again.
You're off a bit.
LoL has close to 30million unique players per day..
They have about 70million unique players per month.
Even DotA2 has about 10million players a month now and is growing - fast.
Incidentally I think a MOBA could work fine on a console, but I think publishers are still stuck in the mindset that console gamers need everything dumbed down and made "accessible" for them. A "casualized" MOBA would be a disaster. And I think we really need to come up with a new word than casualized. The fact that you're seeing 80million+ players between LoL/DotA2 alone is clear evidence that "casuals" don't want to be spoon fed. Ironically we can even consider Minecraft for that matter. I'm sure many would call that a very casual game, yet it's by no means hand-holdy. The game has a very brief optional tutorial and then dumps you into an infinite world with infinite options and sets you free.
Sammy Samusu
Member
How could you forget Sonic Boom!
At least those four games are better than anything coming out this year for other consoles. 8)
maabus1999
Member
Well League of Legends is in a different League playerbase wise...
spatenfloot
Member
Yes, but pc only made up 14% of sales for the quarter.
Ah yeah, I didn't think about it from that perspective. There's a growing customer base to keep servicing who could potentially look elsewhere (be it other publishers or other industries) if they're not serviced.
Thanks.
What on earth are you talking about? You can't play a LoL or DOTA style MOBA on console. A game like Smite works well (hence why the game is coming to consoles).
Also: Are you saying LoL isn't a "casualized" MOBA?
It's important to note that the September growth is absolutely inevitable. So an enormous jump over August is not actually a success in and of itself. The success comes in the exact magnitude of the growth, not its presence alone.
August is typically a crap shoot. I think trying to draw too many conclusions from it would be unwise one way or the other!
sturgboski
Member
Well Smite is coming right? Forget timeframe but I know it's first to X1 and next to PS4. Now if someone could figure out how to get a LoL or DotA2 on consoles and it actually be really good with hooks into the PC version (shared account at least) that would be huge.
Sort of how like everyone is suggesting they market a Minecraft Vita as it's the full PC experience on the go. If they can get DotA2 and LoL on consoles to feel right, that could be a big deal.
Edit:
Thinking about it, I think Wii U with the gamepad would be the closest to getting it right. At least the stylus can sort of act like a mouse click.
As to Smite, I'm surprised Hi-Rez is not brining Tribes Ascend over. Or maybe they don't support that game anymore. I know they stopped supporting Global Agenda to do Tribes Ascend and for a time supported both Tribes and Smite.
anexanhume
Member
TLOU was only out 5 days. And people buy consoles to participate in betas? I wouldn't even be remotely concerned unless holiday months are very poor for all platforms. Even with all of the delays there's still Assassin's Creed, Far Cry 4, CoD, Shadow of Mordor, Dragon Age, Lords of the Fallen, Diablo 3, GTA V etc. to come for multiplatform titles. Spring is shaping up to be particularly strong too with Evolve, Witcher 3 and Batman all coming.
CosmicQueso
Member
Yup.
Since 2009, the average drop in HW units from June to July averages right around this year's, with little variation.
Average change from July to August has been 0%, but it's been as low as a -teen% decline to +teen% growth.
Summer months are all pretty meaningless in the big picture.
zero shift
Banned
People are still having a hard time accepting that the handheld market is on its way out. At the end of the day the average consumer doesn't want to play a $60 million budget blockbuster for three hours at a time, but would rather play a $60,000 budget casual game for three minutes at a time.
spatenfloot
Member
Guardians of middle earth is a MOBA on ps3.
gundamkyoukai
Member
But question is how many last gen system get sold in those areas to begin with .
PS3 and 360 are not PS2 when it comes to price and i don't think the market penetration as high because of that .
It crazy to think 8 years later PS3 cost $250 to $300 and PS4 cost $400 .
It rather easy to see why last gen sales die so fast while also seeing why it much harder to get market penetration in emerging markets .
shinra-bansho
Member
It's kind of stated right there as a caveat that the 5th gen info isn't in that chart; I don't have that info - and it would be good to include if possible. I don't know how much of an impact the N64 or the PS1 would have had on the TTM in for instance December 2002 (i.e. the 12 month period beginning 15 months after the launch of the PS2). If I were to hazard a guess I imagine it wouldn't be major, as I think the PS2's long tail is pretty anomalous - although I'm open to being corrected on this. It's definitely not being replicated now with these legacy platforms.sörine;125528360 said:
I don't recall when the Dreamcast would have left store shelves in the US.
Follow diablo 3 console gameplay, use the touch pad of the ds4 for the minimap, and here is your moba for console.
I believe he was trolling.
There are already people actively playing LoL with a controller and that was a game that most certainly was made with 0 concern given to controllers as an input device. It's actually quite trivial to convert practically any PC game to use controller input. I enjoy playing PC games on the TV in the living room with a controller so xpadder and I have become quite familiar friends. The thread that was had on gaf claiming "an MMO would be impossible on a console. too many hotkeys!" was rather humorous. Apparently super duper complex concepts like pressing up/down/left/right to toggle the state of your controller are just beyond them.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
June tracks one extra week though
Well a lot of publishers started making f2p versions of their primary games for BRIC.
Like the target audience for Battlefield play4free isn't the markets where Battlefield sells 2 million copies in its debut month.
FIFA World has a similar target audience even though they brought it to the primary markets as well recently.
However, these games aren't as fully featured, and as the markets get more prosperous, they tend to like the better versions, and a console market starts to emerge to an extent.
That or you want a PC version that's ideally scaleable without losing the high end market in other regions, since expectations of what a PC version is can vary from market to market. Konami is running into this right now with PES for example.
Killroyskbg
Member
While I still think console users will never be able to compete with the best PC users I agree the concept could work really well for "easier" MOBA´s like LoL.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I think that is a bit unfair. Sony has made an earnest effort to support the Vita in 2012. UC, GR, HST, LBP; wipeout, Unit 13, Resistance BS, and all the PSN games that came to it. I think the Vita had the best unique (exclusives) launch line up ever. Sony failed miserably in having third party support both in Japan and the west. For instance instead of money hatting Mickey and BR2, Sony should have money hated Take Two and had GTA Vita ready for May 2012, and RDR October 2012. Sony failed miserably in securing third party support, but i think they have done decently in first party stuff in 2012. Of course they could have done much better like make or convert a GT for the Vita and make it ready for Vita launch.
Sony´s biggest mistake for the Vita is that the Vita was over engineered. Oled and 528 MB Ram were too much and made the cost high and inaccessible for a lot of consumers. Yeah, people buy smart devices by the truck load, but these smart devices have much more functionality and don´t have social stigma in public use as gaming devices.
Sony didn't have unique brands for their handheld line that people cared about though.
They had to launch the system entirely on what were seen as either spin-offs or b-team versions of console games and new IPs.
By comparison, the 3DS has things like Pokemon that were pioneered and focused on as handheld series.
For the games they put on there, they would also often use direct mainline numbering like Mario Kart 7, whereas no one would expect to see Uncharted 4 on there.
Now, given the system was never going to do especially great, that made sense from an investment perspective, but at some point why are you releasing the device if it's only for side products in a market increasingly polarized to the biggest titles.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
control support can come later, they should focus on a release of dota2/lol with full m/k support and see what happens. cheapest moba boxes on the go ever. (it would work like trojan horses in the moba-only players homes)
i really want this to happen honestly, would love to play dota2 on my PS4.
anexanhume
Member
Yup, vita never really had a market. The ROI by putting more big titles on it would just result in losses. It was worth it to release those big names at launch to see if the interest was there, but it just couldn't pull interest away from mobiles/tablets and Nintendo's established position. I suppose they're likely content with Japan performance finally, however.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Can you give us TLOU numbers?
KillerMan91
Member
Best thing Sony could have done for Vita third party wise would have been getting Minecraft to the console way way earlier. I don't know what deal MS had with Mojang though so maybe it was impossible.
Right, I understood that 5th gen was excluded. That's why I asked if any effort was made to replicate that exclusion for later years to make a more meaningful comparison. My suggestion was eliminating console sales once a successor hit market. Not a perfect remedy by any means but it may help.
Dreamcast was formally discontinued in March 2001. That was production but I don't know when shipments ended or shelves were clear.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Don´t you think emerging markets, like BRIC countries, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the rest will help grow the industry?
Aquamarine
Member
sörine;125540423 said:
Shipments continued post-discontinuation so Sega Corporation could clear out existing inventory. That's when you started to see the discounts.
Once PSP lost Monster Hunter exclusivity, wasn't it pretty much game over anyway? II'm not discounting other titles that sold well - I mean in terms of software that pushed hardware. It seems like once Sony lost that, rather than coming up with some new proposition, either with a first party title or with a third-party, they kinda just gave up. Whether it was on purpose or not, the Vita also seemed to fall victim to an arms race with Nintendo. When Nintendo didn't come out with another long-battery-life low-cost machine, but instead with something priced at PSP levels, Sony seemed to respond by making the Vita even bigger and better - and costlier (pre-Recession, maybe it works - but post-recession?).
Meltdown. lol. Surprised you were conscious enough to edit out your ridiculous post.
When I said "LoL or DOTA style" I was talking about a game with all of the standard control options. The DS4 has an "ok" (at best) way to control the map, what about the X1? Obviously you can design the game around these issues though.
3rd person MOBAs works perfectly. There's also a ton of different genres in 3rd person that the console player-base is used to playing. I always wanted to see a game like Dynasty Warriors evolve into a 5v5 online MOBA-like game.